Playing Catch

To be fair, in this day and age, this forum is like a Metacritic aggregator on all things Brewers. Fallible, certainly, but also very up-to-date, and with information from a variety of outlets, and CONSTANTLY reviewing and criticizing our aggregate information. So, in a sense, this forum SHOULD be a better barometer than any single outlet. The "danger," of course, being that we are probably 95% biased toward optimistic outcomes. Which should always be considered. Also, in terms of Gasser, he will have lost nearly an entire season's worth of value as a prospect, and now has a significant injury history. For myself, I had him top 5 due to his successful big league debut, but there's plenty of reasons why someone may not like him as a prospect. I think all of these lists simply highlight the depth of the system. I mean, in another thread, we're talking about Luis Lara being out of the top 20. I think that's nuts! He's a sure-fire MLB CF, and has yet to "fail" with his bat, being sent to the AFL as a 20-year old! I have to think he's EASY top 10-15 in most other systems.

Looks to me like Baseball Prospectus, then, has four Brewers in their top 100, as I can't imagine they leave out Misiorowski, or include Mike Boeve.

I don't care if the Brewers trade Civale or not, but let's not pretend he's irreplaceable.

I'll respectfully disagree, but even if those two are better, it's pretty close. I'd be willing to bet neither of them get drafted higher than wherever Wohler ends up being picked.

Since this is "ALL" things hockey... I know very little about the sport. I struggle with what are probably basic concepts. But I find myself sitting here watching Wild-Panthers. It seems like 3rd and especially 4th lines, and the 2nd defenseman pairing should be really good at buying/wasting time in order to give the top players a blow, especially after tough stretches of play... icing, flipping the puck into the stands, etc., would be the dark arts associated with those players, no? Thanks in advance for any responses.

I find his minor-league story-to-date to be a frustrating one. Even just a 40-glove at 3rd, 2nd, and an OF corner could make him Zobrist-like. Does he have a viable path to a roster spot in 2025? Is he going to replace Bauers? If so, would you be excited to see what he can do? Do you believe that he can be a serviceable lefty bench stick? For a contender? What is his trade value/prospect value? As for my own thoughts, I think he has a weird skillset that has a hard time making it in the big leagues, but that he deserves a shot. Like Hiura before him, he needs to go to a bad team to let him work on his game at the big-league level. On one hand, I'd be tempted to rep him to death at 2nd/3rd to try and improve his defense, on the other hand, I'd be tempted to just stick him in left field full time, and see if he can carve out a career as a 5th OFer, pinch hitter/runner. But I don't think his bat will ever be good enough to be a strong-side platoon player at first base/DH.

So, I've been listening to a lot of podcasts lately, and one thing I've noticed, not specifically in yours, but generally, that they use a lot of pronouns, so that if I'm casually listening, and Spencer says, "His in-zone contact rate is elite," and it perks up my ears, but I have to go back to hear if Spencer is still talking about the guy I think he's talking about, or if Spencer has moved on to talking about a different guy. Perhaps I just need to concentrate harder through the three hours, (which I'm willing to do!), but I think it would be helpful for more casual listeners that are doing two things at once. T-RATS: This is still a more general overview question/comment, but I would appreciate any thoughts you have about the Brewers owning the Warbirds (nee Mudcats). Is Third Base Ventures LLC (owners of T-Rats) affiliated with the Brewers ownership? For some reason I thought the Brewers owned the T-Rats. Why may this be advantageous? Does it help to solidify the organizational structure to protect against future league-wide expansion/restructuring? What would Blake Burke need to do to firmly place himself as part of the Brewers plan for 2026/2027?

I hate that the Cubs are making good decisions. Does this not bother anyone else? And why did the [expletive] Yankees bail them out of a bad decision?? Brewers should sign Bregman, and then just trade him next off-season.

I completely understand your viewpoint on this, but the stadium will be there until it's torn down. It "belongs" to the city. The Brewers were, and always will be, simple stewards or lessees of it, like County stadium before it. If the city said to the Brewers, "we aren't renewing your lease, we want to do something else with the stadium," they could do that (I think).

They'll probably bunt more than average, but with all of the high-contact, low EV bats in the lineup, may as well just go for swinging bunts, as you can't strike out on a 2-strike foul ball.

I agree with Sveum and Turbo. He's in the 17-30 range with all those other guys that could be ranked #20. But to leave him OFF the list doesn't feel good for our return on the Devin Williams trade.

I really don't understand the Brewers worrying that much about Chourio playing, other than it's more risky than if they just bubble-wrapped him and locked him up all winter. Go ahead and let him DH, let him play every other day, let him pinch-hit on his off days. Whatever, I just can't imagine him playing some baseball games for his hometown team is worse for him than [insert literally any other offseason activity].

My "old" Badger fandom would have me sweating all of these transfers. My "new" Badger fandom says, who cares? The players we bring in can't be any worse. That sounds negative and cynical, but I promise it's not! It's really more of an optimistic outlook. Look, the roster this season was poor. Someone asked about Wohler's draft profile a few posts ago, and I think most of us agreed with the idea of 6th round to undrafted. He was our BEST player?? Yikes! Pauling is a loss. But if the Badgers are basically keeping Trech, and replacing Pauling with that Ball State tight end, I am IN. I tried to get on board with the Dairy Raid, I really did. But gosh do I hate that stupid stuff. I want ALL the tight ends.

I guess the point of my question is that a good on-base percentage is often a reflection of hitters taking walks. Presumably, there are fewer walks in the playoffs due to higher quality pitching. All of the "home-runs in the playoffs" articles only reference homers. I'm curious though, if the winning percentages are similar for a team that simply out-hits their opponent. Not necessarily out-homers. But like you said, probably not worth very much.

At the risk of sounding like I'm talking myself into thinking this was a good trade... Well, I guess that's exactly what I'm doing. But anyhoo, I'm beginning to buy Durbin as an above-average everyday IFer. Not necessarily in his rookie year, but after a year or two, I can imagine him slashing .270/.380/.430 . That's a pretty good player. He has hit at every level of his minor league career, which basically consisted of three seasons, not including his 17 game stint in rookie ball his draft year. 2022 - 116 wRC+ in 333 A-ball plate appearances 2023 - 151 wRC+ in 124 A+ plate appearances, promoted to AA - 122 wRC+ in 194 double-A plate appearances 2024 - debuts in AAA, finishing season with 129 wRC+ in 375 PAs, before lighting up the AFL I mean, that's really consistent. It's actually kind of a similar statistical profile as Tyler Black. Durbin has a clear edge with the glove, Black has more power, and is a lefty hitter. But they have similar speed and similar on-base profiles.

Are there any studies that show how simply outhitting your playoff opponent does to winning%, or most total bases?

Oh jeez, of course he does!!

FTR, I, too, want to see them fill that hole with a power stick. But seeing the Steamer projections (even with the inaccurate inclusion of Bauers, haha), made me feel a lot better about just how much power the Brewers need to procure. It made me feel better about using a Durbin/Dunn platoon, or using a defensive player who's limited with the bat. Also, Steamer is projecting Chourio with 28, Mitchell with 15, Ortiz with 13, and Frelick with 6. I'm not sure that I wouldn't take the over on all of those, individually. Per the conversation about OBP>ISO, or whatever... OBP is really important, statistically. But much less important on an AB-by-AB level, where situation can change everything. However, I also think many fans of power like it with the idea that power can drive in guys that are already on base. For me, that, too, is very situational. The reason I like power is that it gives the hitter a better chance of scoring a run himself, as he is more likely to be that much closer to home. In the same way, I love guys that can steal bases, and guys that can put the bat on the ball to drive in the guys in scoring position. IMO, two of the currently most underrated "classic" stats are batting average (quick/dirty number, I know, compared to the advanced stats of today), and Runs Scored. Give me a guy that scores 100 runs every year for 6 million, over the guy that has 100 RBI every year and costs 26 million. Give me a stubborn, pesky hitter who fouls off 10 pitches and wears out that 100mph reliever, over the guy who loves to take walks go down 0-2 and K's on a well-placed slider. To the idea of a lineup filled with Arraez-es or Hoskins, I really like having a balanced lineup. I like to have the speed/baserunning the Brewers possess. But I also like having guys that at least present a real threat to hit one out. Just having power threats is, IMO, very important in making it a difficult lineup to pitch to.

The Brewers hit 177 Home Runs in 2024. Unless I added incorrectly, Steamer projects the current roster to hit 181 HRs. Are we too worried about replacing Adames' power?

I understand that the Levonas pick is nice to have this year. But doesn't the knowledge that a team MUST sign the pick or lose it forever negate a lot of leverage? Is that destined to be a senior? You can't pick some overslot guy, only to have the agent hold the team ransom? Although, I suppose at that point it the team bails on the pick and signs a bunch of 11-20 round high schoolers. Man, this off-season is going to be interminable. Can't Spring Training just get here already???

I mentioned it in a few different threads the last few months, but I think the Brewers look at defense as "team defense". What i mean by this, is that putting a great defensive third baseman next to a good SS is the same as having an elite SS and a poor third baseman. Likewise on the 1st base side, where the Brewers currently feature a bad defensive first baseman. I wonder if the Brewers feel like they can't afford to move their platinum glove second baseman from that side of the infield.

My guess is that the Brewers want Quero to be good enough that they can trade Contreras before the 2027 season.

If Hoskins is playing defense, I just don't see the Brewers moving Turang from 2B.

I both agree with @jay87shot, and disagree. I think that on paper, the Brewers are better after this trade. I also think that the return falls a bit short. I mean, Cortes is only 5'11" and Durbin is 5'6"!

Trading Freddy isn't a bad thought at all, IMO. With his two years of club control at a low price, he provides quality innings, but not quantity innings. I think you could get another DL Hall type of prospect plus one or two more pieces. Stocking up on some MLB arms is never a bad idea if you are trading guys like Freddy.