SRB

[sarcasm]Fair enough, enjoy Hector Gomez starting at 2B for 1/3 of the season.[/sarcasm]

No, Tommy La Stella would be great. He is the inverse of Scooter, at least based on the relatively small sample of 2014: Scooter .253 OPS vs. LHP .802 OPS vs. RHP La Stella .817 OPS vs. LHP .604 OPS vs. RHP Put them together and you would have had the #2 2B in the NL last season (behind Altuve, #3 MLB behind Cano and Altuve). That would be a fantastic solution to our 2B-platoon need, though I don't think it's worth trading someone like Gallardo for that alone. But maybe La Stella and a plus reliever? 61 MLB at bats vs left handed pitching is hardly relevant. He's a lefty hitter like Gennett. It would be pointless to have both of them on the roster. The reason Gennett needs a platoon partner is not that he's a LHB, it's that he's especially atrocious against LHP even compared to normal LHB. Any competent 2B would be a good platoon-mate, and La Stella hits LHP as well if not better than RHP.

If somebody already told Quintana that he's definitely being traded and it hasn't been confirmed by any mainstream sources yet, it probably means it's some non-factor minor league swap that the team won't bother announcing for a week or two. Only way it's something bigger is if there was a miscommunication and Quintana was simply told he's under consideration, as a courtesy.

La Stella doesn't have severe minor league splits, so he could presumably play a 2B/3B/OF role against RHP, and then be the everyday 2B against LHP. I don't see us upgrading shortstop beyond Segura and the scrap-heapy internal options, because it's not worth the trade cost and all capable free agents will be too expensive.

If Mark A is going to go bonkers with a $100M contract, Yasmany Tomas might make more sense. He could play 1B/LF this season and then 3B starting in 2016. Maybe the Brewers are one of the "dark horse" teams now being speculated.

No, Tommy La Stella would be great. He is the inverse of Scooter, at least based on the relatively small sample of 2014: Scooter .253 OPS vs. LHP .802 OPS vs. RHP La Stella .817 OPS vs. LHP .604 OPS vs. RHP Put them together and you would have had the #2 2B in the NL last season (behind Altuve, #3 MLB behind Cano and Altuve). That would be a fantastic solution to our 2B-platoon need, though I don't think it's worth trading someone like Gallardo for that alone. But maybe La Stella and a plus reliever?

Those are some pretty atrocious moves, even by SB Nation standards.

[sarcasm]Scherzer, 15/$375M[/sarcasm]

Ruben Tejada or Everth Cabrera would be good as platoon-mates for Gennett and as backup SS. Both hit LHP markedly better than RHP, and while Cabrera's defense at SS hasn't been great he would probably be an asset at 2B. We would need a 1B/3B to platoon with Lind, or a 3B/OF though, because neither Tejada or Cabrera has any business at a corner infield position.

On the plus side, Scherzer would definitely solve the problematic fact that our pitching staff is going to be eminently mediocre 2-3 seasons from now.

Woah, that would be interesting. I feel like that's the type of move I probably wouldn't make if I were running things, but as a fandom-passenger I would be ecstatic if Mark A made that happen. They could backload a longterm deal and hope for the best.

The Giants have a $150M+ payroll, why are they a comparator for the Brewers?

Guys who haven't had the chance to consistently start there everyday? I don't mind people disagreeing with me, but I hate when people make up a narrative (which will almost surely stick) like saying Lind is a defensive liability. Over any meaningful sample size, all advanced metrics say he's been right around average (UZR he's a touch below average, TotalZone he's a touch above average). Concluding that he is a DH-only or comparable to JuanFran has zero basis in reality. Who made up a narrative? Over his career: *he has a career -9.2 dWAR per baseball-reference *UZR @ 1B -8.0 per FanGraphs *UZR/150 @ 1B -4.0 per FanGraphs *UZR @ OF -13.8 per FanGraphs *UZR/150 @ OF -11.6 per FanGraphs He looks like he played well in his 11 games at first base in 2010 (22.8 UZR/150), and okay in 2011 (-2.7) and 2012 (2.0). Bad in 2013 (-7.4) and horrible in 2014 (-14.8). The Blue Jays took him out of the OF after 2010 after successive seasons of -17.8, -30.8 and -46.3 UZR/150. Guys who haven't had the chance to consistently start there everyday? He has 2,530 innings at first base. Somehow, don't ask me how, Lind has managed to get worse at positions the longer he plays there (it's happened in the OF and at 1B). He's definitely not an outfielder, and is a poor fielding first baseman. He's best suited for DH, which is where the Blue Jays usually played him, but since we don't have that option, we'll settle for a poor fielding 1B who should be able to hit well agains RHP. I'm not trying to knock him, but we have to look at him for what he is. He should do well against RHP, and bad against LHP, and he will likely be a below average fielding 1B. Concluding that he is a DH-only or comparable to JuanFran has zero basis in reality. Juan Francisco at 1B: -27.1 UZR/150 in 2013 with Brewers, never having played 1B before and getting bounced between 1B (532.1 innings) and 3B (255.2 innings) -1.1 UZR/150 in 2014 with Blue Jays If you only use Francisco's time at 1B with the Brewers when he was thrown there with no experience, then Lind compares favorably. If you look at Francisco after he's had a little experience there, he out-fielded Lind. Neither is good, but there is certainly "basis in reality" to see how Francisco could be a better fielding 1B going forward, and to say that a guy who is a pretty bad fielding 1B would be best served as a DH. Why is his poor outfield defense relevant? The only relevant stat is: "*UZR/150 @ 1B -4.0 per FanGraphs". In contrast, his TotalZone Rtot/year is +2 (slightly above average). It doesn't make sense to say he's been getting worse with age, because advanced defensive metrics are too flukey and unreliable in a single season sample (much less partial seasons). Generally you need, at minimum, 3+ full seasons of defensive data to get a good sense of a player's true ability. Thus, whereas Lind's numbers were too generous in 2010, now that we have more and more data on him his numbers are normalizing to right around average or a touch below average. Carlos Gomez's UZR/150 the past four seasons has fluctuated back and forth more than 20 runs per 150 innings. That doesn't mean Gomez's skills are changing, or he's having off seasons defensively. The relevant stat for his defensive ability is his longterm stats (like his career +15.6 UZR/150 in CF) If we expect Lind to be somewhere around average, his UZR/150 in 2015 might end up being -10.0, but it might end up being +10.0 also.

Guys who haven't had the chance to consistently start there everyday? I don't mind people disagreeing with me, but I hate when people make up a narrative (which will almost surely stick) like saying Lind is a defensive liability. Over any meaningful sample size, all advanced metrics say he's been right around average (UZR he's a touch below average, TotalZone he's a touch above average). Concluding that he is a DH-only or comparable to JuanFran has zero basis in reality.

Yes Option which means not guaranteed. I'd have bet Billy Butler's option for 2015 would have been picked up 110% going in to the 2014 season. So to me Lind is a 1year player until his option is picked up in 2015 offseason. Just for an idea why Lind has played some 1b at the ML level since 2010 at the age of 26. Via BRef Defensive Runs saved/cost over a year based on his games played at 1b: 2010: +36 based on 11games-8Games started 2011: +5 based on 109 games-all Starts 2012: +6 based on 61games-57starts 2013: -2 based on 76games-71starts 2014: -12! based on 47games-43starts Lind I'd imagine is set for around 115-125games started at 1b for 2015. Let's give him his career avg for 120games offensively: 468PAs 428ABs 54runs 117hits 24/25doubles 1triple 18/19HRs 65RBI 1SB 34BBs 89/90Ks .273/.327/.466/.793 As a 1b you're looking at roughly (guess) 1.25-1.75 OWAR player. If his numbers defensively decline or stay at the -12 of last season meaning rougly -1WAR defensively....Lind can be expected to be a .5-1.4WAR player. Do you pay 8million for a 1b who stands to not be worth 1WAR? And that's based on career averages. He has to exceed them for me if I'd consider picking up his option. But what if Lind has offensive years like 2010-2012? the .250/.300/.425/.725OPS in 2015? While being a negative value defensively? Offensive Runs with the bat vs an average player in 2010-2012: -12,-4,-1 2011 he appeared in 125games(109at1b remember). So theres his downside value. He could be -4Runs offensively+ -12Runs Defensively There stands as good a chance Lind is a 0WAR/worse 1b for Milw in 2015 as he may be a 2WAR/+ for Milw in 2015. I just don't feel his option is a sure thing to be picked up because he's declining with age defensively. Don't agree with your numbers. Why assume he's starting 120 games but then use his career totals (including LHP). If he's properly platooned, he has a career line of .293/.349/.510/.860, .369 wOBA. But he's been much better than that the previous 2 seasons. You're also being unfairly pessimistic defensively, as that sample size from 2014 alone is far too small. His career stats at 1B are -4.0 UZR/150, and given that his liabilities in the OF seem to do with his lack of speed, whose to say he can't improve at 1B. As a comparator for those career stats, look at Freddie Freeman's 2014. He was a touch better offensively (.372 wOBA), but was a butcher according to advanced defensive metrics (-11.4 UZR) and was still worth >4.0 fWAR. Obviously the caveat is that you have to pro rate all this, because Lind needs a platoon whereas Freeman is an everyday player, but if the price is a mere $8M plus finding and rostering a guy who can hit LHP, it's a no brainer.

Marcum had two years of team control, not 3 and he had never thrown 200 innings and had missed the a year from arm problems just one year before he was traded. I'm not seeing a real strong argument that Marcum's value at the time being higher than Gallardo's is now. Marcum had a lower ERA over the previous three seasons, while pitching in the AL East at a time when pitching was much less dominant MLB-wide. Plus the Brewers overpaid (at the time). I would have put money on the Brewers not picking up Gallardo's 2015 option at all if you had asked me entering the 2014 season. He had a solid 2015 while outperforming his peripherals, but his stuff is noticeably on a downward trend and he doesn't strike very many people out anymore. Gallardo could have commanded a great return circa 2011, but with one year of team control left he is simply not that good of a pitcher these days. Honestly just a solid #4 at this point. Obviously as a Brewers fan I want Melvin to try and pull an elite return out of his hat (if he's trading Gallardo), I'm just trying to be realistic about what we can actually expect.

I'm personally outraged that Yadier Molina did not win the Gold Glove for both catcher and first base. He played one game there and truly elevated first base defense to a new level. These voters are classless.

Van Slyke could be the everyday 1B after Lind passes on. I guess this scenario is contingent on the Brewers evaluating Van Slyke as a (non-elite but serviceable) major league regular. Make fun of Barney all you want, but we NEED two weak side platoon players on the roster given our current starting 1B/2B, and absent some type of trade we are looking at a bunch of scrubs from within the organization. Gallardo is fine, but one of Nelson/Fiers can take his place. Yes, it's nice to have a solid sixth starter, but I would rather deal from a position of strength than roll into the season with a patchwork bench yet again. The other reason to trade Gallardo is that it frees up considerably money to bring in a plus RP or another bench player. I suppose if we shopped Gallardo we might be able to get a better return in a vacuum (either prospects or better major leaguers), but I was just looking at pieces Los Angeles has that fill our relatively specific needs.

That's awful for us. I don't think that's unrealistic at all, and if improves the team more than holding onto Gallardo does.

What about this trade? To LAD: Yovani Gallardo, SP To MIL: Scott Van Slyke, 1B/OF (kills LHP, platoons w/ Lind) Darwin Barney, INF (favors LHP, platoons w/ Scooter) Kyle Farmer, C (top-20 Dodgers prospect, fills C hole in low-minors wave of prospects coming up) Maybe throw in a RP or fringe P prospect coming to Milwaukee.

Yes. I agree. I didn't want to be saddled with another 3 or 4 year deal. We have a lot coming off the books after 2015. Lets keep it that way. In other news, I think this puts an end to any FA that will cost more than $1 million. Here is how our numbers shake up for 21 players which currently tally's up to $105 million: [pre]Name 2015 Ramirez, Aramis $16,000,000 Braun, Ryan $13,000,000 Gallardo, Yovani $13,000,000 Garza, Matt $12,500,000 Lohse, Kyle $11,000,000 Broxton, Jonathan $9,000,000 Gomez, Carlos $8,000,000 Lind, Adam $7,500,000 Parra, Gerardo 6,000,000 Lucroy, Jonathan $3,400,000 Segura, Jean 534,000 Peralta, Wily 515,000 Henderson, Jim 512,000 Jeffress, Jeremy 512,000 Thornburg, Tyler 505,000 Gennett, Scooter 504,000 Davis, Khris 503,000 Maldonado, Martin 502,000 Smith, Will 502,000 Fiers, Michael 512,000 Nelson, Jimmy 502,000.00 TOTAL - MIL $105,003,000[/pre] Maldonado might be closer to $1M via arbitration. I don't see how we can afford Parra at $6M. Really they need to trade one of Gallardo or Broxton, because we NEED some new bench pieces given that Lind and Scooter both need solid platoon partners. I'm going to be angry if we limp into the season again with a horrible bench (which is what we have right now). We probably need to buy a new RP too, preferably LHP, because Henderson and Thornburg are question marks, and Smith is the only lefty in sight.

After the Lind trade, meaning Braun will be staying in RF, does this mean Parra is an almost certain non-tender? I like him a lot, but he's going to be too pricey ($6M+) for a fourth OF.

What would be a bigger splash than getting a guy who was top-5 in all of MLB the last two seasons vs. RHP? Not saying I expect him to repeat that, but this is a creative solution to a problem that has no easy solutions. Adam LaRoche is a worse hitter and is also terrible against LHP, even if the Brewers had the money to spend on overpaying him. The Brewers just need to find a 1B/OF or 1B/3B who is at least average against LHP, and we have by far the best 1B option we've had since Prince left.

His name came up during the season too, but an excellent target for the Brewers would be Scott Van Slyke on the Dodgers. He should still be expendable due to their outfield logjam, and he kills LHP. You'd have a Lind/Van Slyke platoon, and both can play a serviceable corner OF so it's not a roster glut like having Overbay was. That would be fantastic. You're talking about a 1B platoon that could approach a combined .400 wOBA if both have good seasons. I mean, come on, what's not to like. That's like having Prince Fielder back.

Wow, has anyone posted this yet? 2013-2014 vs. RHP (all positions, min. 500 PA) 1) Mike Trout, .415 wOBA 2) Miguel Cabrera, .411 wOBA 3) David Ortiz, .405 wOBA 4) Troy Tulowitzki, .403 wOBA 5) Adam Lind, .402 wOBA (.327/.395/.537/.931) Uh, yeah, that's an upgrade.