SRB

Ichiro is a good defender but not THAT good: UZR: 2008: 8.1 runs 2009: 8.5 2010: 15.1 2011: -5.7 2012: 15.6 (~half season) ------------------------- He perhaps worth around 10 runs/year above average defensively, a couple of runs for base running and probably solidly below average, offensively? His rest-of-season projection sits at .273/.309/.348. $2 mil for less than a half season sounds pretty close to what he's worth, no? The Yankees don't pay for wins like other teams. They're getting a huge box office draw (not that they necessarily need it) + superb defense (+10 runs/year isn't elite??) + solid base-running + upside. Ichiro's BABIP has been insanely low relative to his career baseline the last year and a half; that's probably him getting old, but it's also probable he's been unlucky a bit too. I don't think Ichiro is totally done for and I bet he has a nice finish to the season in NYC, even if he's no longer one of the top players in the game.

Actually it's just the opposite. I have more faith in the Brewers scouting system to find guys than I do in some ranking by a magazine. Go to the 'Trade Rumors' board, and find me something for Greinke with a non 100 prospect(s). Many people here are too carried away with this list, that's all that I'm saying. I'd rather have the Brewers make a move for some unknown 19 or 20 year olds who may make 'the list' in a few years than take some guy who has already been on the list and hasn't performed in the majors, causing his current team to deem him as expendable. Come on, I agree that prospect lists are not the gospel, and I agree that many-if-not-most prospects do not live up to their potential. But are you actually arguing that prospects not listed in the BA Top 100 have a higher success rate than prospects that are listed in the BA Top 100? The Brewers will only get a supplemental pick if they keep Greinke and let him walk. They have to be extraordinary lucky for the player they pick in that position just to be the type of young prospect that ends up as a BA Top 100 player, much less a major league contributor more valuable than the average BA Top 100 prospect. And are you suggesting that he Brewers scouting department will have a better handle on some high school kid they haven't even seen yet, as compared to an established prospect they probably have a huge file on? If you trust the Brewers scouts, just trust the Brewers scouts. Many, many of this mid-season deals end up huge successes for the trading team. That's how smart scouts can get a Carlos Santana for a Casey Blake rental.

Wow, what a steal. Ichiro is no longer all-around elite, but he's still an elite defender and has put up 1.8 fWAR this season (for what fWAR is worth). Mariners got zilch.

I'm not an expert on scouting prospects and don't claim to be, so I tend to defer to Baseball America with the caveat that no prospect evaluations should be taken as the gospel. But a pitcher they had in their top-50 who has had a modicum of success in the majors? Come on, that's a huge return. Optimist: this increases the market return for pitching rentals, and we can ask for more for Greinke now. Pessimist: the one team that was willing to give up a top pitching prospect for a rental is now off the market because Melvin has waited too long.

Cubs get top-50 pitching prospect for Dempster. Reports on Twitter that he was the only pitcher available that the Braves wanted, because Melvin still won't trade Greinke. One less suitor for Greinke. Melvin is an idiot. If he doesn't get a return better than Delgado he should be fired.

I feel like they could get Yunel Escobar for less, and Escobar is a way better SS at this point (also under team control for 3-years at $5m/year)

The Angels still have Maicer Izturis, no? He is a very solid SS and probably better than Segura would be this season. If they really want Greinke I don't think this changes things.

Lawrie is seriously the most overrated player in the game. He had a Braun-esque debut last season, but unlike Braun, he hasn't been able to sustain it. He has a .731 OPS at 3B this season (.316 wOBA) which makes him one of the worst offensive 3B in the majors. The only reason he has a similar WAR to A-Ram is because the defensive metrics somehow think that Lawrie is the best defensive 3B around (and in recent memory); there is simply no way that is sustainable going forward (if even true at all) given the unanimous scouting reports on him coming up. Escobar has a .373 BABIP so his offense this season is probably unsustainable, but his WAR has been dragged down by flukey defensive metrics that say he has been horrible at SS, which I don't think is the case with Escobar or will be going foward. I have to admit, Escobar is looking like what everybody thought he might be this season. Odorizzi has a 1.534 WHIP at AAA this season. Still good but not sure I'd call him "one of the top prospects in the game on the mound right now." In sum, I wish we had all these players still in the system, especially Escobar, but none of them are difference-makers. We absolutely would not have a better team this year with them than with Greinke/Marcum. Not even close. It's going forward where the would have helped.

Your estimate does actually give me more hope, as it gives them more room than when I was estimating it (but I think you numbers are mostly reasonable). Don't you think they need 2 SP though, Gallardo-____-____-Fiers-Thornburg? Giving $20m to Greinke means you have $10m to spend on a starting SS that isn't horrible, a mid-rotation SP, and possibly some bullpen pieces, which is going to be tricky. If they manage to extend Greinke I think they should try to go for it in 2013 again; trade for Yunel Escobar ($5m contract, very good value right now; being undervalued it seems), sign innings-eater at around $5-6 million (e.g. Joe Saunders?), pray Axford improves. RF-Aoki 2B-Weeks LF-Braun 3B-Ramirez 1B-Hart SS-Escobar C-Lucroy CF-Gomez SP-Greinke SP-Gallardo SP-Saunders SP-Thornburg SP-Fiers I think that's a playoff caliber team.

You can trade ARam or Hart and you're down to $85MM or so. And that's on the high end, because I don't think arby pushes the payroll up $10MM. That's true, but can you see Melvin signing Greinke and then trading A-Ram or Hart? Seems unlikely to me. And there are lots of arbitration-eligible players next year: Morgan (ARB2), Loe (ARB3), Veras (ARB3), Gomez (ARB4), Parra (ARB3), Ransom (ARB2), Kottaras (ARB2), Axford (ARB1), Narveson (ARB1), Estrada (ARB1) Most of those players will be making a few million via arbitration. I was actually conservative by assuming Loe & others will be non-tendered.

I just don't see how the Brewers can afford Greinke at $100+ million. Just looking at 2013, adding together guaranteed payroll and estimated arbitration, you have around $76 million committed to returning players. If you give Greinke $20-23 million, you have $96-99 million tied up. But you still need to find a starting shortstop (unless you want Ransom/Bianchi as everyday players...), and you basically need to sign 1-2 free agent SP. Fiers has been great but realistically he's probably a #5-type starter, same as Estrada, same as Narveson (who might not even be a regular starter again). The rotation simply wouldn't be good enough without bringing in a free agent SP or two, unless you have barrels of faith in Thornburg/Peralta/Rogers to suddenly be middle-of-the-rotation starters right out of the gate. And that's assuming Gomez in CF, Aoki in RF, and Hart at 1B. To be competitive it would probably be best to use Gomez/Aoki in CF, Hart in RF, and sign a free agent 1B. There's not enough money to sign Greinke and field a competitive team, imo. And that likely only gets worse in 2014, when A-Ram is suddenly making $16 million and a bunch of players salaries increase via contract or arbitration. *Edit* You are also stuck with a pretty craptastic bullpen, unless a bunch of players turn things around. If Axford doesn't recover, the organization will probably have to pay for a closer next year too.

This isn't like football where you can target positions of need. You should almost always be targeting the best player available. Since you said Texas has the best farm system, thats who you probably want to deal with first. And some prospects take longer than others to reach the bigs, other trades can happen, there's FA signings, etc. so you don't really know what the makeup of the team will be. If Melvin traded ARam, we would likely need a 3B (unless you go with Green) so Olt would fit nicely there (I think Texas is nuts if they think they won't have to give up Olt in a deal for Greinke/Hamels). Disagree entirely. You don't target positions of need in the draft, because those players aren't going to be in the majors for like five years, so it makes no sense. You absolutely target positions of need for prospects in AA/AAA who you want to contribute sometime in the following year. In that case it's exactly like football, you know what holes you have for the next 2-3 seasons.

Why do you folks think Texas is a better fit than Los Angeles? Texas has the better farm system, obviously, but it's not like they are going to trade Profar (probably not Olt either). The positions the Brewers need the most are SS/SP, and the Angels have two top-100-caliber prospects at those positions that they seem willing to trade and who could contribute as early as 2013 (Segura/Richards). Assuming Melvin & Co. scout Segura and think he can stick at SS, of course.

What about a three-team trade where MIL gets Yunel Escobar, TOR gets (what do they need?), and a third team gets Greinke? Shortstop problem solved for the next three years, I would do that deal.

1) Trade Zack Greinke (SP) + Francisco Rodriguez (RP) + Manny Parra (RP) to LAA for Jean Segura (SS) + Garrett Richards (SP) + Kaleb Cowart (3B) 2) Trade Aramis Ramirez (3B) to LAD for Allen Webster (SP) + Scott Van Slyke (1B/OF) 3) Trade George Kottaras © to WAS for Dan Rosenbaum (SP/RP) Sign Lance Berkman to a 1-2 year deal in the offseason, sign Edwin Jackson, 2013 lineup: CF - Aoki/Gomez/Morgan, 2B - Weeks, LF - Braun, 1B - Berkman, RF - Hart, C - Lucroy, 3B - Green, SS - Segura SP - Gallardo, SP - Jackson, SP - Richards, SP - Thornburg, SP - Fiers/Narveson/Estrada/Rogers/Peralta/Webster

Just looking at teams that were interested in Greinke. The only other one I see is the Angels have Jordan Walden eligible to come off on the 24th. I'm not sure that Feliz or Walden would be traded, but never know. There's also the possibility of prospects being on the DL though. A couple others: Jonny Venters (July 20), Ian Desmond (July 18), and Mitch Moreland sometime soon (not sure exact date he's eligible to come off). Not saying any of those players would be included, just speculating.

DL angle may be far-fetched, but it does fit. Can't trade a player on the DL, can't bring a guy off the DL until a certain date, don't want to pitch Greinke when a trade is pending. Is there anywhere to look up whose DL stints expire in the next few days (other than Feliz, apparently)? *Edit* Sabathia for Greinke. Boom. *Edit*

Pirates fans rejoice; Brewers fans despair, because it will give Melvin false hope

Getting Escobar would be great, particularly given the alternatives for '13-'14. I'm not sure why you think it won't cost a lot though. Starting-caliber SS are the most expensive commodity in the game.

I was thinking along similar lines, except that DM isn't waiting to see how the Brewers do. My thought is that he's close to a deal and the team (or teams) he's talking to doesn't want Greinke to risk injury while the deal is being hammered out. But who the hell knows? I've learned to stop caring about all this and what happens, happens. Alternatively, he has an offer that he really likes, but he wants to use it as leverage to see what other teams will offer. Thus, he puts Greinke on ice for the next few days so teams can get back to him with their final offer.

On the one hand, this seems really dumb, because even if there isn't something physically/mentally wrong with Greinke, lots of teams are going to be assuming there is now. On the other hand, maybe it's a good strategic decision. If the team tanks vs. STL/CIN and Melvin decides to finally sell, Greinke will be able to start for whatever team trades for him the day after the trade. Might work out so that the trading team gets an extra start out of him over the rest of the season.

LOL. You do not sit your ace for 9+ days against your two biggest division rivals if he is just "recharging." Either there's a trade (unlikely, why would they have to scratch him two days in advance?) or something is wrong with him physically or mentally. If there's no a trade in place now (there probably isn't) then he simply isn't getting traded after this. Oh well, it didn't seem like they were going to get anything of greater value than the comp. picks anyways.

Trade Kottaras, I'm sure there are teams that could use a solid catcher (the Mets come to mind, though maybe they want a more established regular). Lucroy/Maldonado are our great young catching core for the foreseeable future.

What good is a top-notch arm and strikeouts if you can't get the ERA down? I'm not anti-sabermetrics in the least, but if I'm making a decision worth hundreds of millions of dollars, I'm paying a guy based on results. I get your basic point, but I think the only thing that really matters in paying a player is your best sense of what he'll do in the future. You don't really want to pay for past results, do you? The reason this whole ERA vs. advanced metrics debate is so hard with Greinke is that the split between his peripherals and his ERA makes projecting his future performance unusually difficult. I agree, though I think there's a point when you reach a large enough sample in which the player is getting hit/giving up more runs than the peripherals say he "should" that you have to question their predictive effectiveness going forward for that individual player. But I guess my broader point is not that Greinke won't be elite going forward, but that I'm surprised there's so much consensus that GMs will value him as if he's definitely going to be elite going forward. The reason players like Ryan Howard got such huge contracts is that GMs still pay for superficial stats like RBI (and ERA/W), so now they are completely ignoring Greinke's inability (minus 2009) to put up an ERA below the mid-3's? Because I think that's the only way he's worth $120+ million.

They are second in the NL by RC+ (also park adjusted, but a more advanced stat, imo). Braun, Ramirez, Hart, second-best at C in the NL, Aoki performing very well, all with Weeks severely underperforming his true talent level. It is a very good offense.