Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

SRB

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,357

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

News

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects Ranking

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

Milwaukee Brewers Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    Interesting, though as always when people try to quantify prospect values, those valuations are preposterous.
  2. SRB
    [sarcasm]Ryan Braun has informed the media that he will play some games at catcher if necessary[/sarcasm]
  3. SRB
    I'm just going off Cots, but it calculates that we currently have $89.2M in 2018 payroll. It doesn't appear they've added Albers yet, so add $2.5M and its approximately $91.7M. Archer earns $6.25M this season, but if we add 1-2 pitchers then I doubt Gallardo makes the team and you can remove his non-guaranteed $2M. That gives a grand total of $96M. I highly doubt that if Mark A. is going for it to the extent of adding Yelich and Cain and trading for Archer that a difference of $96M versus $92M is going to stop him from signing anybody.
  4. SRB
    Elite? He's arguably better than Yu Darvish
  5. SRB
    I personally don’t care that much about how affordable Archer’s deal is. We’re going to be nearly capped out whether Archer is a $10 million/year guy or $20 million/year I’m not saying it’s meaningless. It may leave us a bit of room at a trade deadline or maybe we could afford a modest 2B upgrade, but we’re going to be near capped out. Also, we’ll be paying extra (future cheap MLB player) contracts due to Archer’s contract being a value league wide and driving up his cost. Archer isn't making much more than Yovani Gallardo or Matt Albers this season. He's not "capping" us out at anything. He's never guaranteed more than $7.5M per season (not counting options) and after this season our payroll commitments drop to $63M and then $46M and then continues to drop.
  6. SRB
    Archer is not a rental. He could still be anchoring our rotation (as #1 or #2) when Hiura makes his first All Star team. Talking about "trading the farm" when you are adding an elite player with 4+ years of cheap team control (Archer, Yelich) makes absolutely no sense to me.
  7. SRB
    More ZiPS projections (less pessimistic than STEAMER for pitchers generally) Archer (as TBR): 3.27 ERA, 3.10 FIP Darvish (as LAD): 3.24 ERA, 3.22 FIP Salazar (as CLE): 3.60 ERA, 3.48 FIP Cobb (as TBR): 3.77 ERA, 4.00 FIP Lynn (as STL): 3.82 ERA, 4.25 FIP No projections posted yet for Arrieta (CHC) or Corbin (ARI), but I suspect Arrieta would slot behind Salazar and Corbin after Lynn in the above list.
  8. SRB
    bWAR is essentially just modified ERA. Hence, in one sense it is a better retrospective measure of how "valuable" the pitcher was that season, but in my opinion it is a worse prospective indicator of talent or future performance as compared to FIP-based metrics. Some 2018 projections for Archer: STEAMER: 3.47 ERA, 3.48 FIP ZiPS: 3.27 ERA, 3.10 FIP That is extremely good for a guy who would be moving from the AL East to the NL Central and who has been very durable in his career and is a good bet to go 200+ IP
  9. SRB
    The BABIP number is downright frightening. .203? For pitchers with 60+ innings pitched, that was the second best number in the majors last year behind Carl Edwards Jr. (.192). His BABIP won't stay that low and he won't maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, but it's worth noting that it wasn't necessarily pure luck: the advanced metrics suggest he was one of the best in the majors at inducing weak/soft contact (hence an abnormally low BABIP should be expected).
  10. SRB
    Santana, Woodruff, and a upper-mid-tier prospect (Peralta?) seems fair. I have to imagine Stearns is kicking the tires hard on Archer, since he is one of the only SP available who fits the "1-5 year window" strategy like Yelich.
  11. SRB
    Good article, although I think it (lightly) contributes to this running narrative that the Brewers have somehow gone "all-in" for 2018 simply because we are the only team who has done anything in 3+ months. Stearns deserves more credit for making smart moves that will help us just as much 3-5 years from now (especially if the front office believes that Cain is not due for major age-based decline) when our entire starting rotation and bullpen might be different. The only "win now" moves have been modest two-year contracts for middle relievers.
  12. SRB
    I think it's a pretty solid Opening Day bullpen actually. Knebel will likely regress a bit, but everything indicates guys like Jeffers and Barnes will regress toward the norm in the opposite direction (i.e. improve) Guys who have earned saves within the last couple seasons: Knebel, Jeffress, Barnes, Logan, Albers Some strong circumstantial evidence that they've all got (in the estimation of various managers) pretty good intangibles too. And the one guy without any saves (Hader) could end up being the best of them all.
  13. SRB
    An impressive (and cheap) two-headed beast: 2014-2017 Boone Logan vs. LHB: 73.0 IP, 12.7 K/9, .208 AVG, 2.91 xFIP 2014-2017 Matt Albers vs. RHB: 101.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, .233 AVG, 3.42 xFIP (even including Albers' outlier 2016)
  14. SRB
    Low risk, high reward. He was very good last season full stop, but even if he starts struggling if you look at his career splits he could be an effective ROOGY (he has been historically quite bad vs LHB). We already have two LHP locked in to the bullpen, so Albers compliments them.
  15. SRB
    Just bumped a different (less appropriate) thread with the same question. Is it the following? RHP Anderson RHP Davies RHP Chacin LHP Suter RHP Woodruff With RHP Gallardo as a potential long relief/sixth starter option? Or do they think Guerra has something left in the tank.
  16. SRB
    Probably because they're actively trying to trade him now and don't want to admit he's an awful defender in RF
  17. SRB
    Defense isn't a linear thing. We've seen that just because guys are good at ss doesn't mean they can handle the easiest position of 1b. Certain players are better suited for certain positions. I haven't seen any myself, but people have reported that Houston tried Santana at 1b and he was bad there. If he was terrible there, they wouldn't put him there in a professional game. Same reason Khris Davis never saw any time in an MLB game at 1b. The point is that if you have a prospect who is a potential center fielder, why are you "trying" him at 1B at all, and what's more how can you "try" a minor leaguer at a position without even giving him a single inning there. This story makes zero sense unless someone posts a link to whatever the source of this is. /end derail
  18. SRB
    [sarcasm]I say move Thames to 2B.[/sarcasm]
  19. SRB
    I'm dubious, but I also feel the legend of his horrendous defense at 3B is overstated. He was a rookie still playing a new position who advanced to the majors very quickly because of his bat and didn't seem to really care about his defense. As a veteran player now who is still very athletic, I wouldn't be shocked if he could manage passable defense at 2B or 3B.
  20. SRB
    Domingo Santana was a "failed" first base experiment when he played 0 games there in his entire minor league career? No idea what the origin of that claim is. When we traded for him there was still a question of whether he could possibly handle centerfield (yes that seems silly in retrospect), I'm skeptical that Philadelphia or Houston ever contemplated moving him down the defensive spectrum.
  21. SRB
    What about Thames to Boston for Thornburg and a couple prospects? (Quality prospects, to be clear. I think Thames has a lot of value with his contract and Boston needs 1B/DH help. Not sure he could land us a quality SP though.) I would love to see a Yelich-Cain-Santana outfield with Braun at 1B if he can handle it.
  22. SRB
    Over 323 IP, Fulmer has a sub-7.0 K/9. He's a very good pitcher due to his ability to generate ground balls, but "ace like stuff"? I would much rather have Archer, but since Fulmer is good and young the above trade proposal doesn't seem preposterous to me. Maybe a little too much headed to Detroit. This. 100% this. I’m disappointed in how much grief the guy gets. Not to further sidetrack, but there have been approximately 4 posts gently questioning whether HH has been 100% accurate or not out of 50+ pages of trade rumors over the last week and a half, and innumerable posts praising him to high heaven. Give me a break.
  23. SRB
    Nobody is attacking HH, people were just pointing out that his word is not the gospel and thus it is fair to speculate that moves could happen contrary to what he has claimed. (He literally did post "I told you so" in the Yelich thread, by the way, though like I said I have no problem with him and I enjoy his posts )
  24. SRB
    Also, as far as I know when deals genuinely do get leaked by non-writers (and by writers too) it is usually based on info from the players' camps, not the front offices. The leak about the Greinke trade is a good example (that was a fun night!) The notion that HH knows somebody in the Brewers front office giving running updates on what the Brewers are doing is possible but deserves a healthy dose of skepticism.
  25. SRB
    One thing not mentioned much in this thread is that I think there's a strong possibility Stearns and the front office are internally down on Brinson relative to his external market value as a top-20 prospect. You can't really keep him in AAA any longer, and what if he tanks again over a longer sample size in the majors in 2018? They could strongly believe that they sold Brinson at his peak value.
×
×
  • Create New...