SRB

What is Cameron's role in the front office? I mean it's not like he's the GM. Aside from editing Fangraphs he was never even a huge stat expert really, I doubt his role is that significant.

Welp, somebody actually having a worse night than the Rays! Amazing for a guy who was below replacement level in 2016.

Has Odorizzi ever really been significantly injured? He's made 28+ starts every year since he was in A+ in 2011. He's just not a very good pitcher and can barely go 5.0 IP so he has never pitched more than 187 IP in the majors (with 33 GS that year). I think he's going to be exposed a bit when his ERA no longer has the Rays and Royals defense behind it. Does that also go for Archer... the rays D behind him comment? No, because his fielding independent stats aren't horrific. And he's not an extreme flyball pitcher skying all of his batted balls to Kevin Kiermaier. It's a fair argument for the numerous seasons in which Archer had an ERA in the 3.20's maybe.

3.35 xFIP vs. 5.10 xFIP... And yeah 2/3 of an inning per start over an entire season is actually quite huge.

Has Odorizzi ever really been significantly injured? He's made 28+ starts every year since he was in A+ in 2011. He's just not a very good pitcher and can barely go 5.0 IP so he has never pitched more than 187 IP in the majors (with 33 GS that year). I think he's going to be exposed a bit when his ERA no longer has the Rays and Royals defense behind it.

Odorizzi over Vargas, maybe. Odorizzi over Garcia, no way.

That return is a little shocking. On the other hand, Odorizzi was terrible last season, has been trending down for 4+ years, and even with a clean bill of health has never been capable of going deep into games. Isn't Ervin Santana only going to miss like 2 weeks?

Wow, Bob Nightengale says that's the whole return. I don't like Odorizzi at all, but I would have certainly taken him for basically nothing, if only to bump Miley and Gallardo.

Were they able to land Max Kepler though? If not it still suggests the Rays are expecting to add an OF...

Odorizzi going to Minnesota. Good, didn't want him anywhere near Miller Park.

I would assume they already have a trade lined up. The DFA is just to clear 40-man room for Cron without getting rid of somebody else. Strange order of operations though, announcing this move first and by itself. The have 10 days to finalize whatever they have cooking with Dickerson.

Smart move, wish it had been the Brewers. How does Cashner get twice that???

They are going to price Colome like he is an elite closer but he simply isn't. He was fine but not outstanding last season performance wise, and his peripherals were much worse. I would be more intrigued if the front office thinks they could stretch him back out into being a SP.

If the theory about Stearns having a KATOH-esque evaluation system are accurate, 21-year-old catcher Dalton Varsho or 19-year-old catcher Andy Yerzy could be names to watch.

Corbin's career best season is 3.5 fWAR. Santana was worth 3.3 fWAR last season as a 24 year old even with UZR hating his defense. Corbin is a free agent after 2018. Santana is under team control for four more years. I really don't see a match.

Arizona sheds half of Greinke's albatross and doesn't give up a single top-100 prospect (because they have a mediocre farm system) and somehow lands Chris Archer???

I like Corbin a lot, I just don't see how a one-year rental makes sense, and if we are going that route isn't there some soon to be free agent out there better than Corbin (especially if we're trading a valuable asset like Santana)?

I know this is nitpicking, but I don't think such a contract would be possible, even if both sides wanted it. fWAR (or any other iteration of WAR) isn't an official stat, and therefore subject to change. What happens if Fangraphs unexpectedly closes up shop sometime in the middle of his contract? I don't think the fWAR formula is really secret, or at least it didn't used to be (it's probably more complex now than it was 5+ years ago). It's a moot point though, because I'm fairly sure the CBA prohibits contract incentives based on actual performance. (The exceptions are playing time and awards) *Edit* Had this typed up before posting, I didn't just ignore MrAllen's post above saying the exact same thing

Right, but that's also why the opt-out is terrible for the team. The best case scenario for the contract is that Darvish does great and leaves after two years. The worst case is that he does terribly and they are stuck with a $126 million albatross. You are taking on all of the risk without the possible reward of 6 years of a great pitcher. Obviously any team would love to have Darvish on a 2/$42M contract and then he leaves. But here you have the major added risk of him being bad and a $85M penalty kicks in for your misfortune.

No, I think the opposite - the point is that, to quote an infamous poster in other threads, "you don't spend your nickels on gumballs when you think you can get a candy bar". You don't sign the lower tier guys if you think you have a decent shot at a Darvish, JD Martinez, Hosmer, etc. For example - just throwing names out there, don't judge the names or $ amounts - why would you sign Jose Bautista for a hope-he-bounces-back 1-year $6M deal when you have an offer out for JD Martinez? Those guys play the same position, so you can't sign Bautista until you know you can't get Martinez. Why would you sign a Mike Napoli or Mark Reynolds on a one-year deal if you have a legitimate offer on Eric Hosmer? Why would you sign a Jaime Garcia on a one-year bounce-back deal when you have offers out on Arrietta or Lynn? You don't, until you those guys make a decision. Also, to quote Doug Melvin, "Free agents know where they want to play." There are like 3 teams in baseball that are seriously considering JD Martinez or Eric Hosmer. This argument makes no sense to me. I guess it will be interesting to see if things move now that Darvish has signed. This is a bunk argument. MLB and the MLBPA have collectively bargained these terms. This isn't a one-sided negotiation like teachers here in AZ, this is fairly bargained. It's the most fair and prosperous free agency model in all of sports as well. European soccer, the NFL, the NBA, and the NHL...sorry, their free agency models are nowhere near as generous as MLB. There's nothing "fair" about it when one side in the transaction operates a legally sanctioned monopoly. The MLBPA has done a great job getting players paid, I don't disagree, but to act like the teams do not have 95% of the leverage is to deny reality. And yes, the MLB free agency model is generous to compensate for the 7-year-team-control model. Which is why the union and the agents are so angry at their perception that owners are deliberately trying to restrain the free agency model!

Lynn is full of red flags. 4.82 FIP/4.75 xFIP last season. Those are very bad regardless of how much one believes in advanced metrics. I can buy that he is unusually good at keeping flyballs in the park so he has outperformed his xFIP in his career, but the point is he is trending in the wrong direction. All depends on the contract, I suppose. I've probably posted it a 100 times by now, but if we are signing any free agent SP, Jaime Garcia screams out the best value. He's as good as Cobb/Lynn and (based on media chatter at least) could be had at a fraction of the cost. Lord knows why anyone wants Andrew Cashner. I remember years ago when he had huge promise, but have you seen his stats last season? He nearly accomplished the rare feat of having a higher BB/9 than K/9: 4.6 K/9 vs. 3.5 BB/9.

Santana for Zack Godley would be an interesting trade. You are arguably buying high on Godley because he was not regarded as much more than a back-end starter or swingman before his excellent 2017, but it's a gamble on him being the real deal. Depends on how both teams evaluate him (favorably on the part of the Brewers, or negatively on the part of Arizona).

That offer seems a little rich for me. 6 years of Woodruff alone for 3 years of Walker is arguably an overpay, depending on how much you value Woodruff. (Walker was once a more highly regarded prospect, but he's pitched 514 IP at this point with results that are not far from what many expect from Woodruff)

Brewers aren't going anywhere with a rotation full of 3's and 4's. Anderson has been good but it took him a while to get there. Davies can be inconsistent. If you want to compete you need proven starters. IF they can get to the playoffs, they will get shellacked. If Stearns is going after Cotton it's probably because he thinks Cotton can be a top of the rotation pitcher 3+ years from now.

Most of the people disagreeing with agent39 in this thread seem to be missing the point. The issue is not Eric Hosmer failing to secure a 10-year megacontract, it's that there are "lower tier" free agents who are getting stonewalled by teams in a manner that is evidently very suspicious to both the agents and the players/union. So complaining about the size of the 1-2 megacontracts that get signed every offseason is not really relevant. This argument would be weird even if MLB weren't a de facto monopoly that uses its power to force players to give up 6+ years of their careers to teams they have no choice over at prices they have no control over.