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SRB

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Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    Coming at it from a non-statistical angle, I think there are guy who are elite defenders in CF because of their incredible speed and physical athleticism, and there are guy who are elite defenders in CF because of their instincts and feel for the position (with the caveat that obviously all of these guys are good athletes). I'm guessing Stearns and company are very confident Cain falls into the latter category. (Jim Edmonds comes to mind as a perfect example, just in terms of defense. He was a Gold Glove defender all the way through his 30s and not because he was stealing 60 SB per season by then)
  2. SRB
    Suggesting that Stearns plans to go into a "full tank" as of 2022 seems preposterous to me. Nobody knows what our farm system will be like 6 months from now, much less 5 years.......
  3. SRB
    My mistake, apparently he's a Super Two with an extra year of control. Still, I'd rather just sign a guy like Jaime Garcia on a two-year deal and get not dissimilar performance.
  4. SRB
    I hate Trevor Bauer. Keep him away from our clubhouse! He's also a free agent soon. No way do I trade 4 years of Santana for him.
  5. SRB
    I can't remember a time when we've had a deeper farm than we have right now. It's not "Burnes or bust." Burnes wasn't even really on the radar a year ago, and sadly with the volatility of pitching prospects he may or may not be on the radar a year in the future (the last Brewers pitcher who had a huge season and shot into top-50 prospect discussions was Jorge Lopez..) I like to dream on his potential as much as the next poster (Keith Law ranking him in the 20s, raving about his potential, and so on), but I trust in Stearns and the front office knowing the value of these players. No one can accuse Stearns of emptying the farm in a foolhardy gamble to win in 2018. All of his moves have shown a deliberate attempt to stay relevant for years to come. Let's see if you still feel that way after the Archer trade. Deep doesn't mean good btw. It just means there are a lot of guys who might profile as major leaguers but not necessarily starters let alone difference makers. It's deep and good, even if you remove another 2-3 players. I personally expect Hiura and Lutz to be #1 and #2 by this time next year, and behind them there are more legitimate SP prospects than we've had in quite some time (Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Ponce, others). We have top-100 caliber prospects that nobody even seems to talk about (Erceg was on Keith Law's top 100 list)
  6. SRB
    I can't remember a time when we've had a deeper farm than we have right now. It's not "Burnes or bust." Burnes wasn't even really on the radar a year ago, and sadly with the volatility of pitching prospects he may or may not be on the radar a year in the future (the last Brewers pitcher who had a huge season and shot into top-50 prospect discussions was Jorge Lopez..) I like to dream on his potential as much as the next poster (Keith Law ranking him in the 20s, raving about his potential, and so on), but I trust in Stearns and the front office knowing the value of these players. No one can accuse Stearns of emptying the farm in a foolhardy gamble to win in 2018. All of his moves have shown a deliberate attempt to stay relevant for years to come.
  7. SRB
    The revenue figures posted in this or another thread recently show that teams use the "small market" thing as an excuse to suppress payroll. The Brewers ownership group could spend a lot more on payroll if they wanted to (and teams like the Yankees could spend much much more than that - the only current barrier being the luxury tax threshold).
  8. SRB
    Archer may not be one of the ten best pitchers in baseball and may or may not be an "ace" however that is arbitrarily defined, but so what? His value is his value either way, and part of that value is his contract and his age. For the handful of pitchers who are consensus "aces" you are talking about giving up an equivalent package of prospects for a half-year rental. If and when they are even available.
  9. SRB
    This is very cool: Lewis Brinson gets surprised by Juan Pierre
  10. SRB
    The unnamed prospect is on the wrong side of that trade, in my opinion, even as someone much higher on Salazar than most around here.
  11. SRB
    Assuming that any team trading for Santana thinks he will continue being a .370+ wOBA outfielder like he was last season, if not better, I don't think Santana for Gohara straight up is crazy. .278/.371/.505 with 30 HR and 15 SB in your age 24/25 season is nothing to sneeze at. Even though I don't want the DH in the NL, boy do I wish we had a DH spot...
  12. SRB
    They have an embarrassment of riches. Multiple top pitching prospects that are at the MLB level or MLB-ready. LHP Luiz Gohara would be my dream addition.
  13. SRB
    I'm sure they would have if they had foreseen that the free agent market would turn out this way, but now we already have Vogt. Gallardo is the only player on a non-guaranteed major league contract.
  14. SRB
    I don't think that kind of leverage comes into play in real life. Teams make trades because they both think they are winning, not because they want to "beat" the other team by trying to milk an extra prospect from a team you know needs to trade a guy. Plus if that were how it works, then Stearns could have easily just waited to announce the Cain signing until after any Santana trade was finalized.
  15. SRB
    Teheran is pretty mediocre now. I think people keep bringing up his name because they remember him as top prospect from 4+ years ago.
  16. SRB
    How would we be trading half the farm by packaging Santana and 1-2 of our top prospects and a high-upside flier? We would still have multiple top-100 prospects, plus Hader, plus Phillips, plus an overall very deep farm system. If Santana is the headliner than I would try to avoid including Hiura or Burnes, though as mentioned previously it's not clear to me why Tampa Bay would want Santana.
  17. SRB
    According to...? Did you read HH's update? He's asking for best offers and then balking when he gets them. I'd bet pretty good money that he's trying to get LAD to put in a good offer. Call it a stereotype if you want, but Asian players do tend to prefer the west coast. Darvish should have taken the best offer if wasn't resistant to coming to the midwest. He's risking a lot of money by playing this game. I personally hope the Brewers drop out of the mix. I don't understand why you don't hear about Arrieta. He should be worth just as much as Yu. Is he just asking way too much? He won't get a Greinke offer in this market. Virtually every player in the major leagues prefers the west coast, it has nothing to do with him being Japanese. If him and his agent had received an offer on the level they were expecting he would have signed by now (just like all the other big free agents). There's nothing wrong with playing hardball and putting the pressure on the billionaire owners to pony up the money. Does Lorenzo Cain hate Milwaukee because he waited to sign until January?
  18. SRB
    Alex Cobb is a disaster contract waiting to happen. You all may be remembering his pre-injury stuff, which no longer exists. I have zero interest in Lance Lynn either. This "Big 4" free agent thing seems like pure marketing. If we need to sign another SP other than Darvish (or maybe Arrieta, though he is a little concerning too), I'd rather just take a chance on a guy like Jaime Garcia.
  19. SRB
    Bruce Rondon please.
  20. SRB
    I don't know, how big is Fonzie in Japan?
  21. SRB
    I'm not sure I want to take a chance on him at $8M, he took a big step back last season and there were some warning signs in his peripherals. I'd rather take a flier on a guy like Bruce Rondon who could be had for practically nothing and could end up outperforming Herrera.
  22. SRB
    STEAMER is very pessimistic about most pitchers (except for the ones it randomly likes), and looking at this rotation projections of course we would be a sub-80 win team. As some comparators, STEAMER projected ERAs for some top free agents: Darvish, 3.82 Arrieta, 4.20 Cobb, 4.41 Lynn, 4.67 It's a very hitter-friendly system. I don't fully understand why a reputable site like FanGraphs posts team-based win projections. Using an engine to project anything other than individual player rate stats seems worthless to me.
  23. SRB
    I wouldn't write off Villar entirely yet because he had one down season (see: Jean Segura). Shaw being good was not totally unexpected. Guerra is the only one who came out of nowhere and sustained it relatively briefly.
  24. SRB
    Would obviously love (x50) to have Stroman, but he's a pass from me in any trade. An ace-like price on a guy without elite K/9 stuff is worrisome for me.
  25. SRB
    The more I think about it, the more Darvish just doesn't make sense for us. I suspect others (like me) have been swept up in the excitement of adding Yelich and Cain and trying to win as soon as 2018, and as a result are ignoring what a burden a $30M player would be for our payroll going forward. Even if stays health and doesn't decline much it's a burden. Over his five-year MLB career so far, Darvish has been worth 19.0 fWAR, which is $133M at $7M/WAR. So we would be overpaying him even if he miraculously mirrored his age 26-30 seasons from 31-35. Greinke is probably a better pitcher and god would I not want to be stuck with that contract Arizona has right now (and Greinke hasn't even been bad yet). No thanks. Chris Archer is the smart move for us even if it costs some prospects. We just can't absorb bad contracts like the Cubs can, it's a permanent advantage for them. If we want top pitching then we've got to deal from prospect depth.
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