Austin Tatious

In view of some 40 man roster issues for this December, I expect us to move some affected guys. Regardless of Machado, I am expecting a move for the bullpen along the lines of Swarzak last year. There are two pen spots that seem troubling. I suppose you could keep someone like Lopez who can eat up innings when behind but not be used in pressure situations. But, regardless, we need another guy for leveraged situations, to take some stress off of Jeffress, Williams, Hader, Knebel and even Burnes.

Wilkerson watching his career fly away. Those last two bullpen spots have just been killer. Beyond that, you’ve got a triple A team humiliating the Crew.

I'd re-do that Sabathia trade ten times out of ten. Every deal has a different circumstance and dynamic but that was a sound move. There may be other deals that are wrong. Just not this one.

I am going to predict that the Brewers will ship out some players with an eye toward the 40 man roster this December and Rule 5 considerations. To that end, Machado and Britton, both as rentals, may work both ways if we give Baltimore volume and we address the logjam for the 40 man. I could see guys like Woodruff, Santana, Davies or Suter, Ray or Stokes, et al as part of outbound packages. The guys who are not 40 man problems, I'd rather keep. For example, the Brewers have done a great job landing impressive college pitchers with raw ability who are soaring through the system, when you look at Woodruff, Burnes, and Zack Brown being the last. As part of that mix, Woodruff makes sense to move whereas Brown makes sense to keep. Stokes has consistently been better than Ray, but both may have some value. Since we have suddenly been more strategic (and successful) with the draft, we've got more nice premium prospects as the "next wave." Hiura, Lutz, Turang, Jean Carmona, perhaps Gray and Biello, Feliciano, Peyton Henry, Carlos Rodriguez, Je'Von Ward, Larry Ernesto et al. Even after we are done making deals, I think we will still have a solid system that will provide juice to a surging major league team that should be here for the long haul. The problem with our last window (say it lasted a decade, e.g., 2005-2014), we hardly ever added some fresh juice to the roster. The bad drafting and poor management of the draft was the culprit. I do not think that's happening for the next window.

Kiura for Hand is a rather eccentric thought, but to each their own. That sounds like some fantasy that a 15 year old Padre fan would float.

I am not buying into the Arcia complaining. After hitting .277 with 15 HR last year, he has fallen off a cliff. There are many, many players who go through this phase. Heck, our own JJ Hardy fell off a cliff and then came back with a bang in due time. Arcia is outstanding defensively, where he's a guy who is personally preventing runs. But he's a good athlete with good raw ability with the stick. I think he ends up being a good player, and I'd prefer it to be here. His problems are not physical limitations, but rather his whole approach and that he's lost all confidence. It's not uncommon. He's not recognizing pitches, he's pressing, he's swinging at bad pitches or attacking the pitch the wrong way (e.g., trying to pull low and outside pitches). I haven't charted it but pitches breaking on the outside of the plate have perplexed him. But if his approach becomes sound and he makes adjustments, he's got enough bat quickness and ability to hit decently. His problems are fixable. I'd stick with him.

Good point. However, as someone who was very critical in real time with the Brewers' approach for years with the draft, and for good reason as has been proven, I think you will see a dramatic upturn with results from the draft starting with the last couple of years. You don't need to go underslot in the first round. You can go over, and still manipulate other signings to snag some mid top ten round talents later (past round 10) by saving money on seniors, injured, etc. I have no problem at all with picking up more upside guys even if the total number of guys being signed is much lower. I like the quality over quantity idea. There is a huge uptick in the Brewers' savvy in manipulating the dollar value of drafted (or internationally signed for that matter) guys, to the benefit of getting more upside guys while concomitantly signing fewer filler players. Any individual player may boom or bust, but if you get the numbers right, you can hit on some percentage of the guys, and you're going to succeed by having more legit talents developing. I think our draft results will be a 180 degree turnaround going forward, and we will have some more talent in the system, enough for trades and to rejuvenate the roster with youth every year. That's the sweet spot we are headed into going forward.

Does anyone know if Jabari tore the acl in both knees, or was it the same knee twice? I thought it was both knees but am not sure.

Interesting what a wide range of opinions there are on Eduardo Garcia. 16th ranked on one and 49th ranked in another.

It’d be nice if Saladino came back. He can bring this type of production.

I wouldn't put Hiura and Realmuto in the same category as ballplayers. Catcher is a premium position, fine. But, Hiura knows how to hit at a special level. You never know, if he avoids injury he could end up with 2,500 - 3,000 hits some day. I once said that about an injury prone Paul Molitor and my friends laughed at me. I haven't said that for any Brewer since...until now with Hiura. I am not going to move that type of memorable hitter for a JT Realmuto. That would be a bitter disappointment if Stearns and Arnold did that. I really don't think they would. The problem with this is that you're comparing a very known quantity in Realmuto, to a very unknown quantity in Hiura. Realmuto is probably the best overall catcher in baseball right now. If not, certainly top 3. It's incredibly early to project Hiura as a 2,500-3,000 hit guy. That's 1,000 more than where Braun is right now. I'm not saying he can't, and his hit ability does seem very real. But he's not the first. 13 years ago Rickie Weeks looked like a potential superstar 2nd baseman. Sometimes it just doesn't work out, and that's the problem with valuing the unknown. Maybe Hiura comes up and hits .250 with a .325 OBP at this level. You just don't ever know. You are right that you can't put Hiura and Realmuto in the same category as ballplayers -- Realmuto is a proven MLB star, Keston is not. None of this is to say that you should value Realmuto more than Hiura. Far from it, I know there's a ton of upside in Keston's bat and that would be tough for me to part with as well. Just saying -- you referred to Hiura as a memorable hitter, but at this point in time, he's a POTENTIAL memorable hitter. The known elite quantity costs more because it is known. Which is why Yelich cost much more than just Brinson despite Brinson's possible ceiling as a 30/30 player. Ok, how are you going to feel if Hiura gets 3000 hits and you traded him away for Realmuto? That’d be a historic blunder. No one can predict anyone to get 3000 hits because only a handful of players have ever done it. Hiura has all the makings of being a special hitter. Weeks never had the hit tool Hiura has, even before the wrist injury. He was a dynamic player and athlete, but Hiura is a different kind of guy who can get a ton of hits. Not all prospects have the same risk. With his hitting tools, the risk that he busts is low, if not very low. If Realmuto was on the table, I wouldn’t trade Hiura for him. I’d be shocked if Stearns thought that was a good idea. Somebody said we don’t know Stearns’ patterns yet and how he makes decisions. I think we do. He values assets. He can make any kind deal, as long as he sees asset value being appropriate. That would require different thinking under different circumstances depending on asset value. Realmuto has some control and thus has value, but as an asset, Hiura blows him away. I guess it depends on your view of Hiura. If you think he’s 50/50 and is a potential .280 hitter who can’t field, you might trade him for a guy like Realmuto. If you think, like I do, that we’ve got a guy who will likely hit .300, with some .320’s in there, consistently, no way do you make that trade.

I wouldn't put Hiura and Realmuto in the same category as ballplayers. Catcher is a premium position, fine. But, Hiura knows how to hit at a special level. You never know, if he avoids injury he could end up with 2,500 - 3,000 hits some day. I once said that about an injury prone Paul Molitor and my friends laughed at me. I haven't said that for any Brewer since...until now with Hiura. I am not going to move that type of memorable hitter for a JT Realmuto. That would be a bitter disappointment if Stearns and Arnold did that. I really don't think they would.

Regarding Ortiz, I concur. He’s got an advanced repertoire with two plus pitches, good control, and two additional pitches. The 40 man thing doesn’t bother me, because you’d expect a prospect with his profile and pedigree to be put on the 40. But, I agree with your point about his innings. I assume it’s a conditioning thing. It’s not popular yet, but I’d rate Zack Brown higher and not be moving him at all. The Brewers are still blessed with good depth of starters and relievers (Medeiros) bubbling up at double A and higher. You could move a couple and *still* have good depth. I’d prefer not to move Peralta, Burnes, Zack and Kodi. But, you’d still have the likes of Woodruff, Ortiz, and Ponce to move if you wish.

Sogard could go 12-20 with three homers next week and still be the worst player in the major leagues overall.

I like Peralta a lot. His fastball has great movement. Last night, though, he threw a ludicrously low number of off speed pitches so he still has a lot of work to do. But he’s very young. You compare Peralta and Woodruff and Woodruff really needs to develop his approach. Woodruff doesn’t look like he has the same level of movement. If someone has a different take, I’m all ears. I’m going off my eye test, but it looks to me that Woodruff has a straight fastball but he has better control than Peralta. For Woodruff to improve, he needs to keep the hitters more off balance. Peralta can do it naturally with movement and Woodruff needs to do it by mixing his pitch selection and location. Both have good potential. Between the two, I’d prefer moving Woodruff. Famous last words, right? But, the guy I’m getting more and more excited about is Zach Brown. I’m putting him in my top ten next time. His numbers tell a great story. If we move a couple of guys like Woodruff and Burnes, who have been top 100 guys, it’s nice to still have Peralta, Ortiz and Brown at high levels. Ortiz has the issue of whether he can ever consistently get you into the sixth inning.

Love the bat but I’d be lying if I said I was familiar with his defense. I do like the notion here, though. I’d still like an adequate pickup at short. I didn’t get the Miller thing at all.

Hader is one of the most important assets in the league. I’d be shocked if he got moved. There’s not much out there that’s a higher asset. The Brewers actually have strength in depth. If they deal off 4-6 prospects in 1-2 deals, then our margin of error in our system drops significantly, but you’d still have that next wave of talent. Say you trade off Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ray, Gatewood and maybe a young major leaguer such as Santana. But you’d still be looking at Dubon, Erceg, Zach Brown, Ortiz, Tristen Lutz, Peyton Henry, Jean Carmona et al., and a number of new draftees and lots of international kids grinding out of sight, out of mind. If you deal six guys from my list, you wouldn’t have much further opportunity to make deals until you build back up.

Looks like the Brewers have saved a nice chunk of excess money to give both Turang and Gray over the slot deals. The Brewers can show both that they essentially did “all they could do” to get them the most money they could get in the way the system works.

Yeah, that got my attention too. Rosenthal obviously has good sources too.

Sogard is simply not an MLB player at this stage. Choi is surplus. Those are easy positions to take. Doesn’t mean we have to love the trade. I’m not a Miller fan but maybe we get a competent MLB bat. He doesn’t seem like a Stearns level athlete, so I have some misgivings. It’d be nice to have a guy who’s not an automatic out in that roster spot like Sogard is. If Santana gets some caffeine and energy, perhaps he can bring the vitality to the lineup that Choi has brought. If Santana had minimal value coming off his year last year, he’s probably in Scooter Gennett territory in terms of value. He needs to get on a roll and go.

I gotta believe the kid will sign. You might see posturing both ways, because both sides have leverage. But, $3 million in your pocket now represents money that can get to work for you. It may have a future value in three years that is higher where he won’t make up the difference even if he goes high. In that regard, if Turang goes to college, he could end up going where Swanson went a couple of years ago. Or he could go in the fourth round where Drew Rasmussen went. Sure, he’s going to think that’s not going to happen, but not everything is in your control in life. If cooler heads prevail, he signs slightly above slot, taking savings from Bello or something of that nature.

I’m all for fair criticism about young players. I think it’s premature here. This may not age well, but I am unwaveringly high on Arcia. His skill set is fine. The issues that I see lie primarily in his approach at the plate. It’s a strategic thing with him as opposed to physical limitation. He often looks like a novice out there and you can see his approach is wrong. I saw him try to pull a pitch that was well off the plate outside and he looked bad doing it. He swings at crap and doesn’t have patience. Perhaps he’s pressing. I have no idea how coachable he is, if his outward confidence is actually arrogance, etc. But, if his head is screwed on right, I see a guy that has the ability to use the entire field. He has quickness with the bat. He’s not a slug or weakling. He has the talent and ability to hit. He needs to lay off pitches out of the zone, and go the opposite way and use the whole field.

I see the Bucks as needing three pieces. 1. A point guard who can distribute 2. A big man with strength to get boards consistently, protect the rim, and generally match up with the power up front, e.g., Al Holford 3. A dead eye shooter who can stretch the court and play off Giannis. With all that in mind, and seeing what’s possible at 17, the player who screams out to me is Kevin Huerter. He’s a smart player with moxie and he can drill shots all day long at 6’7. He’s the guy I think is fairly obvious. I don’t know if someone slips, e.g., a Robert Williams, but unless something wacky happens, I’d go with Huerter. With Budenholzer on board, I hope he can use his influence to get on the Huerter bandwagon. I do not trust these guys in the front office after that DJ Wilson pick which we could see was dumb the whole way. If we can see it, it’s ludicrous that a paid professional cannot see it. I wanted OG Anunoby or Harry Giles even. If we hadn’t made that stupid Vasquez trade, we could have drafted both. A home run offseason is if we keep 17 for Huerter, and perhaps trade a piece to get up for Bamba. If you add Bamba and Huerter to this team, the personnel portion will be on its way. The player development and on court strategy is expected to be top notch going forward.

I’d pay up for Syndegaard, but Hader would be off the table.

We discussed Rasmussen last year, so that is an interesting selection. 6th round is great value there. With the high schoolers and juco early, I doubt we can land some more expensive later round guys.