brewcrewdue80

Thanks Casey I wasn't up for the research on exact percentage. I do expect Milwaukee to slide down in the standings once Lucroy is gone, and especially so if Braun is traded. Atlanta is a sure fire #1 or 2. What's going on in Minnesota I dunno, but they aren't as bad as their record. Still it's a big hurdle to fall down below them so I'd say #1 or 2 for them. We'll fall somewhere in the 3-10 range. The good news is that with this start, 100 games lost doesn't seem possible anymore. I'd imagine 92-95 is the low with 84-86 the High.

And even if we could we can't just not sign Corey Ray. The Players Union would destroy us and likely lose more picks in the future. In order to get the draft pick back the Brewers have to at least offer something like 65% of the Slot allotment. If Ray doesn't sign to that offer, the offer was made, Players Union not going to do a thing about it and we are not losing picks due to the low offer. Now if we did nothing literally, and not sign Ray we get absolutely nothing for next draft. That effect is why the Players Union won't get involved. The penalty is already in place.

Cardinals signed Delvin Perez to slot value of their pick about 2.22mil. I hate the fact they got one of the guys with one of the highest ceilings in this draft. Especially with their draft history, he'll probably exceed expectations now.

Lucroy nearing 900OPS. .314 BA atm. Of course Stearns isn't shopping Lucroy, he may under sell him making an offer. Just call him make an offer and discuss a better trade offer I imagine is what he's doing. I just wonder how long teams will wait to acquire him and meet Stearns' demands? How great Lucroy is doing compared to available Catchers is such an advantage the more games you have him. Especially when you consider what the cost will end up being.

8ks to 1bb in 5IP? Guy is 19 mind you. Youngest at the moment in all of MLB

Braun Lucroy triple slash lines: .310-313/.371-.369/.519-.524 Pretty amazing

Matz gets shuffled to the bullpen come postseason. So Great you get maybe 8 IP from him? And the next year, and the year after that. Harvey is fine, his last 3 starts 20IP-8! Hits allowed-2ERs-3BBs-17Ks .90ERA What's the most important? Met's squeeking in to the Playoffs having Matz and lose in 1game playoff 1-0 or 2-1? Or Met's winning the Division and having an offense that is better to support the trio of Degrom, Harvey, and Syndergaard? Matz doesn't fit in to the Playoff equation. It's only June. The Mets first have to make the playoffs and if they do, you don't know for sure that he wouldn't start games at all. There easily could be an injury or he simply pitches to well not to put him out there. Beyond that, you are acting like Lucroy will be the only bat available at the deadline who the Mets could go after. There will be others and it won't cost them one of the best few young starters in the game. If Matz reaches 30 Games started, I will bet you $1,000 he doesn't start a game in the Playoffs. You think the Mets having gone through Harvey and now Wheeler to TJ, are going to say here kid, Stretch out and pitch 220innings this year. Anything come Playoffs Matz will only pitch out of the bullpen count on it. a 60 day DL stint would be the only thing that allows him to start games in the Playoffs. Or this better pitcher being put in the bullpen for Wheeler to start games. Of course they can go for a bat other than Lucroy. But who are they replacing? Granderson/Cespedes are certainly not. I'd add Neil Walker. I don't really think they'd replace Conforto. Duda/Loney like I said you kinda replace with Lucroy to give Darnaud PAs. 3b is David Wright/Wilmer Flores who would have to be a rental with Wright. Asdrubal Cabrera has a 3yr deal. Plus Juan Lagares has an extended contacts. Catcher just makes the most sense for an upgrade to the offense, especially how big it will be with Lucroy.

Steven Matz is more of an untouchable than a Giolito or Urias via trade. He has already shown dominant success at the MLB level. Zero chance the Mets trade him. You could add Arcia and Phillips along with Lucroy and the Mets would still hang up laughing. Great, Cool with me, when the Winter Meetings happen and I say, remember that time I offered you Lucroy for Matz+Plawecki....LOL! Boy, sure glad we got to enjoy the playoffs in front of a tv. How many more years are you going be bottom half in MLB scoring? You're up to 5 now how's that working for ya? Lucroy is 10runs statistically more runs created with the Bat. On pace for another 26runs like 2014. Met's Catchers total? -11 runs created with the bats. Again, the Polarizing effect Lucroy adds to a team is Huge. You're pacing at 25runs+ for Lucroy to -25runs for New York Catchers. Replacing Lucroy in to Walker/or Conforto in batting lineup: Walker at 5 or 1/2 Lucroy and Conforto at 0 or 25runs on season less than Lucroy. This isn't a season where the Mets are gaining Offensive prospects to add to their team, like Conforto was and being just a 0 avg in his 2nd season doesn't say much of what his improvement to the team is. We harped on trading Gomez for Matz last season. Lucroy offers more value than Gomez did, so how isn't Lucroy not worth the same? Because he'd be the Brewers immediate #1? And no way as Milw should trade a Matz away for Lucroy right? Well, see in Milwaukee we are praying for a SP. In NY though, they have to be praying for a bat and that's why this deal makes sense. But go ahead and as the arm chair GM hold on to your Pitching and I guarantee you, it will only get you so far when you are facing the Elite SPs in the Playoffs and are the Worst Offense making the Playoffs. At some point you get swept and lose.

One Last tidbit for Matz. He pitched 140IP in 14 and 141 total in 15. He won't make it to the end of September. He's at 66IP now in 11starts. Another 22 a full season's worth of starts would put him current pace of 198IP. This sets up nicely with Wheeler's return who should be able to pitch 1/2 a season to replace Matz in a trade who you guess at 180IP max would only take him to first week of September. Dead arming it with 4IP starts end of August or in September, well there goes you're playoff run letting the guy 5-7ERs it to the finish line. This should be the Brewers target and the Mets should be willing to trade him for this reason.

When the Lucroy trade happens that right there is probably a 7-9game difference in the 16 record. I won't get in to the 2017 search and drool over SP potential, or the next Ryan Braun potential. Just list the Top 5 OF prospect rankings now and I'm sure one of them will be Milw's pick.

I guess Zach Wheeler is chopped Liver? And I say that because we're supposed to take him in a trade? He's coming back after the AS break. Which is before the Trade deadline. See how that works? 6 SPs become 5? If Zach Wheeler can be part of our Rebuild, He damn sure can be part of New York's World Series down the stretch run.

No way in hell would the Mets even consider trading Matz for Lucroy. Young lefties with his kind of stuff and under team control until 2022 don't get traded for a 30 year old catcher with only a year and a half of team control unless their GM is a complete idiot. They can look to find a bat at the deadline which wouldn't include trading one of the best young pitchers in the game. Matz gets shuffled to the bullpen come postseason. So Great you get maybe 8 IP from him? And the next year, and the year after that. Harvey is fine, his last 3 starts 20IP-8! Hits allowed-2ERs-3BBs-17Ks .90ERA What's the most important? Met's squeeking in to the Playoffs having Matz and lose in 1game playoff 1-0 or 2-1? Or Met's winning the Division and having an offense that is better to support the trio of Degrom, Harvey, and Syndergaard? Matz doesn't fit in to the Playoff equation. He's not Game 1 starter or Game 1 after the 1win Wild Card game. Shelby Miller was traded for Jason Heyward. Matz was a 2nd round #72 overall. Lucroy will have a QO after 2017 and there's your #30 overall pick back in return for him. You offer Matz you get the #1 trade piece this season. You offer any combination of 4-5 prospects in your system, it won't be a better offer than what other clubs will and can offer to Milwaukee. End result: 1-0 Wild Card loss. To LA or STL or Pittsburgh. I'd expect Pittsburgh to get healthy in the standings here with Taillon and probably soon Glasnow joining the ML club. STL I think will tail off in the standings. 3 team race for Wild Card in Mets/Pirates/Dodgers. Mets keep their Arms and find a middling bat they're more likely to NOT make the playoffs than they are. Lucroy is the most polarizing bat a team can acquire for 1 position. The upgrade he gives is more than any player who also gets traded this July. Putting From Texas, Tate, and Ortiz and that's 2 SPs that can become every bit what Matz is, only Matz is proven and those 2 are prospects. Why if that's the case would Texas do that if Matz is so untouchable? Answer:World Series victory. Do you want it? Or do you want to spectate it?

Mets and it isn't even close. The Mets aren't even leading their division with Matz. They need him on that team and a trade including Matz doesn't make sense. Addition by subtraction for little gain. But the Mets don't need Matz as much as they need Lucroy's offense. In the Playoffs you can run a mostly 3 man rotation. Degrom, Harvey, Syndergaard. Add Wheeler as he's to return plust Colon there's 5. Trade Matz for Lucroy and Plawecki and I suppose you'd have to take that deal if you're Milwaukee without any other pieces. Matz would have 2 more years of team control vs. Wheeler. Mets get a solid to potent bat in Lucroy for 1b/Catcher. James Loney is at .639OPS in his 14games thus far filling Duda's absence. D'Arnaud could still catch, Lucroy at 1b until Duda returns which you then slide Lucroy to Catcher(he's now had games to learn the pitchers in the background vs live play) TDA at bench. I'd assume Duda with his injury isn't playing over 5 games a week, if that and you have Lucroy 1b/TDA Catcher when giving him days off. This is the Mets most often Lineups currently: Granderson Asdrubal Cabrera(David Wright if ever plays again this season) Yoenis Cespedes/Michael Conforto Neil Walker/Yoenis Cespedes James Loney/Kelly Johnson Catcher has consistently been #8. Lucroy is better for #2/#3/#5 with Yoenis Cespedes being my #4. Do you give Yoenis someone ahead or behind? Bat him 3rd and Lucroy 4th. Either or it's an improvement in the spots than current and most certainly bumping whoever down, your #8 is stronger than the Catcher were producing. The Mets runs per game now stands at 28th outta 30. Matz won't do them no good come October when they aren't playing in the Playoffs.

Well you gotta remember, you see 3 extras, but what was available with the 2nd pick? The 3rd pick? So forth and so on. Could they have drafted 3more 1st round types or more when their selection came up. I do think it would be very hard to find 10 or even 8 1st rd potentials, unless you had a lot of picks by the end of the 3rd round. Atlanta selected Horn with their 2nd pick. Now if we selected a 2nd or 3rd time prior to Atlanta and taken him, I'd imagine Atlanta finds the next like Justin Hooper last year instead.

Like Wheeler, Norris already a running clock. He'll be 2years after this season. Trading for him, would make me wanna keep Braun on team. Because with Nelson, Davies+Anderson you have a serviceable rotation. You'd believe the team is scratching 500. Though Lucroys bat is a huge loss. That's why the ML player isn't good for Milw in trade over a Jose Deleon or Grant Holmes. What bats you trade away in Lucroy+Braun and maybe Carter. Team would struggle to score 3runs a game ala Atlanta. 2years pass. Now Norris is heading to 2nd Arb with Nelson. You reach the Tampa dilemma play out the season or trade 1. I just don't want the good potential SP who's beyond a year service time. Rookie ok. But that's me. Expecting 2more years of rebuilding and September 2018 there are 15 Bodies who are less than 2years/rookies playing for the team. With more joining in 2019. Taking the slow acceleration to the top.

I'd Keep Lucroy if we are in discussion with Detroit for a trade. I'd expect a return 3 times better than Detroit can offer. Honeywell alone from Tampa is a Better offer.

Not even remotely true. Ben Cherington signed those guys, not Mike Hazen. I didnt know there was a change

The draft an unsignable guy strategy Isn't the best idea until about the 7th pick. When each reduced pick after 7 is only 120k this season. You do it in top 5 and it's almost 1mil or more on the drop. The outside the Box strategy. The Cubs would have been a perfect team to do it in 2015. If they would have just taken Best Available and signed and incurred the penalty. So they lose 2 1st round selections the following years. Well they lost their 1st 2 picks with signing Lackey and Heyward which would have then been 2nd and 3rd round. And this next season they could do the same strategy. With signing QO FAs. They had the 9th selection last year and would have only been the 28th and looking 28-30th this year and likely next. The sacrifice of those picks with such a general lack of success rate wouldn't nearly hurt as much. Atlanta just may be a prime team to do this next season. Again trade for comp picks have a huge bonus pool(especially if they get #1 pick) And hope that by 2017 season they get to a middle or better type of team making that 1st round pick not hurt so much Plus the QO signs after that season. It'd be interesting to see that strategy get played out once and follow how it worked out. But it'd have to be played out by a High Market Club who's on the rise but a lousy season and they have Money to spend for FA in 2 years.

Yoenis Cespedes was the big bat addition as a rental last season. And he got Michael Fullmer an on his way top 50 prospect and Luis Cessa. Only for the Mets to resign him for 25mil a season. So again, Braun, better offensively, and making 17.5mil roughly is a better get than Yoenis is. Put in perspective, Braun has a higher Career OPS than Yoenis's best OPS season by 30+pts. Now that guy is making about 7.5mil more than Braun per year this season and next 2. The Bat is Elite. The money is below market. Excepting anything in a trade that doesn't come with an elite upside means Brewers lose that trade and the other team wins. Simple as that. If you're not getting a A grade prospect back you can accomodate with at least 3 B grade prospects and one should be a + for a B grade. I don't know if the Giants possess the B+ vs. B to B- types. But for any matter, any trade of Braun needs that type of return. If not, keep him he gets cheaper and far more affordable every season that passes now. He's a legit #3 bat in any lineup. That's not your upside or hope. Legit. Prospects are Upside. Maikel Franco was a top 20-50 ranked prospect. I believe he's in Phillies #3 in batting order. .738OPS after .840 last half of season last year. Only Braun's worst year was below .840. Eating money isn't necessary except to send to teams who don't pay players 15mil+ That bottom 10 franchises. That's to make Braun affordable to them. Any other franchise, he's very affordable to cheap.

Why is it good to have Peralta gain another year service time? I'd give him starts til the AS game. If he miraculously earns his way back to ML club, Well there's that value for trade. But if he's doing bad, you move him to bullpen. He'll have a month to accustome himself to it and in Sept he's part of the callups and show his new talent. He gains trade value as a RP. Extra year is nice for that. Garza and his September walk away. Simply money. It about took 8million from Garza. He needs starts for his option. Brewers in a losing season didn't give him those starts. His opinion will be 5millionnow.

What is so special about Wheeler. Ace? His stats have him at 100 ERA+? When he comes back...seems like Harvey went through his injury and back since Wheelers injury, he'll finish the season. Pitch his Arb season to 150?IP next season=not tradeable. 2nd Arb year maybe get the 190IP. And his final year when he can approach ace level Innings...He's a rental in trade. It's nowhere near enough for him to headline a trade.. Plus we get him for Arb? So immediately he's paid 4-5million next season I'd assume. If he completed it healthy. Gotta be a better Pitcher out there for our rebuild. Make it 3team and find these gems. Atlanta has found a way.

Not enough Star power in the Giants prospects to settle for 2men back...Arroyo/Beede. And certainly not eating money for those two. Bickford and Chris Shaw are the younger targets. Andrew Suarez reads like a Zach Davies/Chase Anderson. Take a Mac Marshall/Michael Santos and 4 for 1 I think could equal Braun's value though again, not the MVP or even All Star does one believe in the mix. Bickford the best shot.

Arcia had 184 games between a Domican League Rookie Level and A ball Wisconsin. Moncada had 101 games in Cuban Nationale Series at age 18. He didn't play at age 19 in a League because he was released from Cuba in June 2014 but didn't sign til March of 2015. prior to turning 20. Began in May Last year just 9 days from turning 20. He played ball just as Arcia did. Competition for both leagues vs the Pitching you're not seeing 3-4pitch well refined arsenals. FBs with 1 breaking pitch. If Moncada is so great and you refute there isn't competition like Arcia faced over here, Why then did he only have a .277 avg, 4HRs, .768OPS? Shouldn't he be standing out and batting like 1+OPS? Have like a .400 avg? He's on his 4th year as a minor league player. Arcia his 5th. He's at least 2018 away from advancing to the Red Sox ML team. Both Lucroy and Smith could end up QO worthy when both become FAs. The wild trade idea, Bruce too maybe? That's draft picks to recover some of what they dealt. Meanwhile, they are getting players, in Ortiz' last year to reach a World Series. Smith would replace Uehara after this season. It all depends on whether they are building towards their future or winning now. They do need a SP more than anything else. This is shaping up like Milw's dilemma with playoff runs. Offense great, Pitching not up to par. =Series loss. From your view point it's an easy no. From Boston's view point...Remember they are run by a guy who's signed Hanley Ramirez/Pablo Sandoval/Rick Porcello/Rusney Castillo to extremely large lengthy contracts that not one of them is living up to. David Price is quickly turning to becoming another. So there is some questionable leadership going on up there. Maybe not as bad as Arizona's but it's looking fairly awful what they've committed in those 5 players.

If Milwaukee is to get the same treatment as Boston, Corey Ray will get slotted in about #62 as that is where Benintendi was ranked after his draft selection who was exclaimed essentially the same player Ray was. And this draft is supposed to been better in talent than last year so 50 then maybe more appropriate. Yes 1.5years is younger, but not elite younger. Arcia was 4years younger in AA last year, 5.7 younger for AAA this year. 3.7years younger at A+ level. I'll take the hype more serious when he's producing at AA or AAA to the same numbers. He doesn't come with the Elite Gold Glove defense Arcia does and is just pegged for 2b for all his speed and athleticism to be average there at that. Isan Diaz is a full year younger in same level. He doesn't have the speed Moncada has, but more power thus far and he's producing the numbers along the lines Moncada is for 1year younger. If he got to bat a year from now at the same level, I'd expect his numbers to be that .290s 20s 2b maybe a 3b or 3, 6-8HRs 10sbs. Devers is producing similar numbers as Diaz for same level and half a year younger. Honestly, with what Diaz has accomplished, and for where Moncada's limited to, I'd prefer Devers and Espinoza. Mauricio Dubon also 21 in Salem SS/2b 23rd round pick in '13. .300+avg not as many doubles but 21SBs higher 30BB/23K 55hit tool 55 arm 55 field. So why is he 12th ranked Boston prospect when he's producing similar numbers to Moncada and can play SS beside 2b unlike Moncada? Maybe it's because he was a 23rd Round selection so no way can he be deserving a top 100 prospect. Maybe you throw him in the mix with Devers and Espinoza and call it a positive trade for Lucroy only. Add Will Smith to the deal and I'd expect Moncada I guess over Devers with Espinoza.+pieces. I'd maybe get a 3rd team involved, say Cincy sending Jay Bruce plus their #4 prospect Amir Garrett. Bruce to Boston for Moncada. Brewers get Devers, Garrett, and Espinoza.

Brewers would take that in a heartbeat. I think the Brewers would get a few more lottery ticket type players though. No. You would take that trade in a heartbeat because you think Moncada is best prospect in the game. I'm not buying it. Arcia is in AAA age 21. This Moncada is in A+ at 21. Or older for his competition. Arcia is fit to play vs ML competition. Moncado has a bit to go yet. Moncada is living off his signing for Boston to be #5 prospect. Just like Benitendi living in top 40 because 7th selection. A Brewer has to exceed expectations like Arcia to climb rankings. A Boston prospect just needs to approach expectations to climb.