brewcrewdue80

I think it's Corey Seager's to lose. But maybe he gets some votes. Again, I think he won't pitch in September since he's quickly approaching his Career high in IP in a season. And if I were the Brewers, I wouldn't want him to pitch beyond what he's capable of and turn in to dead armed 6+ERA vs just sitting on season when he's under 3.5ERA and going in to offseason, teams wouldn't know how September/Playoff his arm is, but do know how 25Starts are.

Over. Gone for me will be. Lucroy Braun Scooter Thornburg Nieuhenwuis Hill Hernan Perez Michael Blazek 13.5million It's crazy over here all these trades! I believe there's just going to be a lot of throw-ins to pair a main piece for the trade. Teams will want Smith or Jeffress, but they instead get Thornburg or Blazek. Villar makes Scooter and Perez a Necessary move away from so Arcia can be called up. Nieuhenwuis has always been a trade away piece since acquisition. I didn't list Carter because of the trade pieces removed, his place isn't replaceable at the moment. I also think, giving him a chance to reach 50HRs makes him more valuable for the offseason, and Stearns will want to have a trade piece to make a move this offseason. He can't sell them all now. 50HR Carter+Garza in the offseason would be my guess that happens.

How does Guerra have much of any value when he's never gone beyond 150Innings in his Career? He's at approximately 93IP as of today. He'll have what? 4 more Starts prior to the Deadline with #5 about the day of? We'll give him 25 more innings Making him at 118IP and just 30IP left before you're in to the unknown on his arm. Or approximately 5 Games Started. August is covered, September, not so much. I get it, he's older and the belief would be he'd be able to continue pitching in to the 180s for IP. But how is his performance going to be post 140IP? Now, he stays with Milwaukee pitches through the season or say up to 170IP. And then you trade for him, should he continue decently, and now having proven he can last 170IP without dead arm seeping in. That's when he'll have trade value. This offseason, not this trade deadline. And only if he produces productively post 140IP

I'd have to believe with the new rule of June Draftees not being able to be included in a PTBNL trade until after the World Series would also be the rule here for International signees. Besides, none of them will see the field by the deadline, seeking one in a trade would be like, why didn't you just sign them? FWIW, I can understand the Brewers not reaching on a high price bat and going with 6figure deals. Lara has yet to produce, Mallen/Pierre aren't doing much. Take the spread out the number of signees and hope to luck in on 1 or 2. Vs. putting all the money in to 1 player. I guess taking the route of acquiring these guys in trade when they're 18 and with some experience to go on is better to gamble on then just taking you're chances on 1 16year old. Maybe with the lack of expecting to use all your Signing allotment dollars, the Brewers are saving up to give one of the slots of money in trade to improve on a deal.

The Problem with Boston is that the need for Lucroy's bat isn't there. They lead all of Baseball in Runs scored a game. Lucroy's bat is a lot better than what Boston has at Catcher, but overall in Boston's batting order, He's going to fall in about 6th vs 8 or 9 of catcher currently. They need Pitching. Yes, Like I said on Texas, I meant their current Lead, would make them not want to trade Gallo and keep him. Dodgers just acquired Bud Norris, and I expect Texas to find someone similar. Yu Darvish is nearing a return and he alone is a massive boost to a rotation. So I just believe after all this time, they'll crater and trade for Lucroy. They've not done so to this point, so why do it now? I go back to the Indians as who, to me will desire Lucroy, when Stearns makes a solid offer to them. Looking at Fangraphs, Yan Gomes is having a poor year BABIP but then again his Line Drive% is sunken and his Ground Ball% has increased in its place. Not that his contract is expensive, but it's 3years guaranteed before you can buyout his option year. That contract will be a problem to move away from if he continues to vastly under produce offensively. Milwaukee can however suffice a poorly hitting catcher for 3years. Cleveland loses Napoli after the season and have a 12million option on Carlos Santana to decide whether to pick up or not. So you could catch Lucroy and play him at 1b/DH on his Non-Catching days next season if you're Cleveland. Lucroy says he wants to contend so an extension or accepting the QO after 2017 isn't out of the question knowing how great Cleveland's pitching staff is. I'd like to get Pitching in return and the Indians do have some Arms. But at same time, taking one of Zimmer or Frazier, while I hate the idea of another OF, would net the Crew a Regular for sure to plug in the lineup. Thinking of Braun departing. Then it's an Aiken or Mckenzie desire in Arm to pair with one of those two. Something like, Zimmer/Mckenzie or Frazier/Aiken. Toss in one more prospect in their 10-20 rankings and I'll be satisfied.

That wasn't the case through the Month of May in his Starts. He's been a #5 all of June. He was a great #3 borderline #2 the 1st 2 months. FWIW, The Lead Trade Rumor is that the Rangers are Hot on the Matt Moore trade idea. A guy who's last 153IP has netted over a 5ERA with a Fip about 4.7 in that time. He has nothing but (3)Option years remaining in an odd contract, because he'd be under team control another year after buying out on his 1st option? Either way, a #5 is the hot commodity right now for a team 10games in the lead on their division. This might make sense to package Lucroy and Nelson together and see if the Rangers would bite on giving up some blue chippers: C Jonathan Lucroy RHP Jimmy Nelson for 3B Joey Gallo RHP Luis Ortiz RHP Ariel Jurado RHP Pedro Payano or Yohander Medenz The problem with that is the fact Texas is 10games ahead in their division. So now, I think Joey Gallo is untouchable. I'm thinking a guy like Michael Matuella plus say Josh Morgan is enough to get Matt Moore. Leaving Texas with the ability to keep their top prospects.

That wasn't the case through the Month of May in his Starts. He's been a #5 all of June. He was a great #3 borderline #2 the 1st 2 months. FWIW, The Lead Trade Rumor is that the Rangers are Hot on the Matt Moore trade idea. A guy who's last 153IP has netted over a 5ERA with a Fip about 4.7 in that time. He has nothing but (3)Option years remaining in an odd contract, because he'd be under team control another year after buying out on his 1st option? Either way, a #5 is the hot commodity right now for a team 10games in the lead on their division.

Cleveland has a 9game winning streak and a 5game lead now on the White Sox. It's time for them to get serious and change their Catcher. Yan Gomes has 2 options remaining so they could just send him down for the next rest of the season, and maybe in 2017, though they are paying him a ML Contract. But then again, if you're Milwaukee, you could also seek out a better return taking him back. Either way, the difference of Gomes and Lucroy is big. And without having Brantley for much of this season aside from his decline in numbers, Indians have been leading off with Carlos Santana(former Catcher) and batting Mike Napoli cleanup who leads baseball in Ks on the season. Both are sitting at the 100 OPS+ number(103/98) .230s only a .308 OB for Napoli. Lucroy would fit in that cleanup spot with Napoli 5th in batting order much better. Or, if they are willing to bat Santana 1st because of his willingness to take walks and get on base-.331. Lucroy not only has better BA but the higher OB, he could slide there. Either or, statistically speaking is an improvement than current. Cleveland possesses the Pitching to make a run in the Playoffs. And they also possess a great amount of prospects to acquire that can net a positive trade for Lucroy. Zimmer/Frazier could headline though that is OF. Or you take a stab at more prospects not as loud a headliner with Bobby Bradley a 1b, Brady Aiken and Justus Sheffield SPs. Some depth in SPs with Rob Kaminsky and Juan Hillman who I liked predraft last season. You could maybe add Aaron Hill for Juan Uribe to increase the level of your prospect return should Hill continue his current batting line. I know Texas gets a lot of love for Lucroy trade, but I'm in belief Cleveland could use Lucroy more and pony up for his service. So many ways to improve the trade that would fit for Cleveland. And now that they are leading the division solidifying their position makes a lot of sense.....Don't forget the power within that city of the Cavaliers championship, and making this Cleveland's year if they add to it a WS championship. Their attendance is slowly rising wouldn't be surprised they move from a 14k general attend to a 23k general attend.

Kris Bryant didn't have age 18-20 to have a growing pains in the minors like Gallo. But both do have Age 21 and Age 22 to compare. It's not fair to add Gallo's age 18-20 seasons. Gallo has increased his .195 avg in AAA last season to .263 at the moment. So it can still reach that .325 by year's end. The point is that 27% increases his BA potential to a .260s likelihood. 37% probably gave it a .215 likelihood. He's still very young and players improve generally to age 28. You get him in trade, guess what, you're controlling him through to age 29 in years. You can't really ask for any better than that. Reduce the K% by another 4-6% and he's around .280. Could you imagine that with 35+HRs a season? And obviously he will possess good trade value.

I agree that Gallo is a risk, but his upside - that of a 35-40 HR guy - is pretty tantalizing. A power hitter like Gallo is someone this system really lacks, so it would be nice to have. Plus it would just be cool to watch the guy - you just never know when one would go out of the park. Kris Bryant was also to be bust potential due to the K rate. Only 5.9WAR last season and 2.8WAR thus far this season. Gallo has dropped his K rate from 37%(age 21) to 27.6%(age 22) thus far this season. 27.7% was Bryant's K rate his last full season in the minors. Also age 22.

What do you suppose Braun's projected WAR would be if you removed 2014 from his career? Because he'd be 3.5+WAR every season with it removed so I don't agree with the projections. The future projection would put him at 3.7WAR this season which is less than his current pace on WAR. Then to drop him over 1WAR immediately next season? The money factor. Figuring Braun won't be traded until after July 15th. He will be owed is math is correct 5.164million to finish the season. 15mil, 15mil, 15mil, and 13mil then the next 4seasons. Total: 63.164million for 4.3 seasons. Then the 18million deferred which I figured out to really be worth about 13million in today's money of total value to pay out over 9years. 76.164 million. Now take what interest that deferred money earns~I gave it 4% and you've got 20.41million or 7million difference in value(I didn't continue the 4% earned over the 9years as the deferred payments were made so it would be bigger than just 7million honestly) 4.3season:69million in today's money is what Braun is costing a team. So if that WAR projection is correct, He's making Less than what the value of 9.9WAR is. Which I see to be a low estimate. So in the Aaron Hill thread there's a post about a Cot's contract and moving contracts. In it it said according to the statement that a Team can remain responsible for the Deferred payments. So If true, Milwaukee could easily take that on and there's your money paid for Braun's contract. Rather than all up front...but statement also listed Could speed up the deferred payments and pay it up front. Something maybe Milwaukee would do with Payroll so low this season/next. Though like I said in today's money that deferred becomes lesser in value over time. One would think rookie Pre-Arbs by 2030 would be over 1million a season.

Why are you adding both Anderson and jeffrees? Just adding Anderson should net that package

So, taking Pujols' decline makes Braun a most likely decline vs not. Pujols also had a major Foot issue. Maybe that is what lead to his sudden decline. An injury that affects you in a drastic way leads to sudden decline. Rickie Weeks decline after his injury drastically. They do have a number of guys as FAs after this season. Harvey has 2years team control remaining with Arb and that will likely come to 8mil and 13mil without returning to Ace level. He does and you're talking 10mil and 18million. They do have Degrom and Syndergaard through 2020 so while I can agree they do have the long haul portion for pitching to keep Matz, What they don't have is Granderson, Walker, and Duda in their batting lineup. Who are they replacing them with? David Wright is another season older and who knows how long he even remains playing with his plights. Cespedes could opt out of his contract I believe after this season. You're literally staring at an offense headlined by Travis Darnaud and Michael Conforto. Maybe Nimmo joins the foray. But w/o Cespedes and Duda that outlook is worse than it is now. Syndergaard/Degrom/ and Matz will have to throw 10inning shutouts to maybe win some games. At some point you gotta field a true #3 batter to start your offense. To put it this way. Aaron Hill would be the 2nd highest WAR if on the Mets for Position players. They have as many Relief Pitchers 4 as they do Position players for the Mets top 12 WAR. The one with just 19IP. to beat out all but Cespedes or Asdrubal Cabrera. Cespedes will up and leave after this season and leave the Mets completely hanging with Walker leaving. The team needs a Braun bat far more than they need a Matz arm. But go ahead continue being the #2 Pitching team while being the #28 scoring runs team and see how far that gets you.

Austin in regard to your feelings of kodi/monte/&jacob: None of those picks were picks that had a quick ascend to the majors. Kodi can throw a slider that's like 10-8 with 8 being the 2nd clock next to the first. And then run a fastball tight at the corner of theplate. The ability is outstanding and the upside is Chris sale. Good pick but to control his talent will take time. Monte Harrison was a future nebraska qb? Ahead of him had he refused to sign. He was splitting sports with his talent&athleticism. Changing gears to just baseball meant: time. He hit 5hrs in 1 week just a short bit ago. What he brings in athletic ability and harnesses to baseball could be special. Jacob gatewood gave Milw a future power bat who just happens to k way to much and needs: time. To better pitch recognition, tie the power into games. These guys will all be just 20 this season. Younger than Ray. They have improved whether you're not seeing it on their overall season stats. Take a week and the talent numbers that show is something. Now they gotta get to 2weeks a month. 3weeks a month and we have something. Any of the 3 put 4weeks in a month together and they're perennial all stars. So think of them as gaining a day every month to reach 3week got something with them. Truth is, once they figure something out they will leap to a whole other level. Harrison reads as maybe hit that and is leaping up compared to his 1st months Harrison.

I'm so happy we can call Matz a Legit Ace! with less than 1 year's body of work. Cal Eldred must have been a legit Ace oh, oh no he wasn't. Matz has now not pitched in to the 7th inning in 4 consecutive starts. Ace he is not. Productive #2 sure. But Aces don't struggle to pitch through 6 innings in that length of stretch.

This is getting annoying this expected age 32 and beyond drop-off. Braun right now is batting .320. What's his dropoff? .266? That would still be better than League Average. Paul Molitor batted .341 and .305 age 39/40 1300+PAs. David Ortiz is batting .339 at age 40. Braun has just proven he's a special hitter. He works with what he's capable of. Was hitting opposite field there w/o pulling the ball much still batted better than .265 through his body pains. He'll adjust as he needs and continue putting the ball in play at a high clip. Miguel Cabrera .338 last year age 32. .305 thus far. The haters will be sadly disappointed when Braun adds .300+ BA this season and 2 of the next 4 seasons. Cabrera is making 28mil to bat .305/.380/.537 with 1b as his near only Defensive position to play. He'll be making 30million here shortly. Guys like Braun, don't suddenly stop hitting. But keep telling yourself the dropoff is right around the corner.

He'll be a Dodger. They'll spend like 14million a year for 4years on him and hope this International signing works out. They held a private workout of Gourriel and knowing how they work. Will outspend every team and buy him for a workout. Vs. trading for a proven like Ryan Braun at 15million per. They'll take the 10+million tryout and most likely fail. Btw, whatever happened to Alex Guerrero? Wasn't he waived recently? Why didn't we pursue him for 3rd base?

Medieros' arm slot has been compared to Chris sale. I've seen his slider. Will Smith dreams his slider moved like kodis. I get it his numbers aren't what you'd like, but give him time. I'm telling you, his stuff will get there.

Yet with the Mets offense dreadful, he is #7 in the lineup tonight not middle of the order. I think segura was on a 30+hr pace after 1.5months his 1st year. You don't have the contract knowledge down after the numerous times posting it. Braun has 18million deferred which with inflation equals 13+million in today's money. Add the interest you'd earn out of that 18mil and come 2022 you have 20.5million to pay Braun 2million the next 9years. I could figure this out deeper but 18mil deferred is honestly like 9million today. With the interest earned today compared to inflation on Brauns 18 million. His contract is like 5/86mil. Less this year's already paid to. And before Milw sends any money in trade.

That's a joke. It'd be the Brewers hanging up the phone if the Mets ONLY offer Conforto for him. Braun's contract is NOT market value. Fangraphs who rates him terribly in defense, while BRef has him as a positive, Has him already valued at 11.1million on the season. He was 22+ of value last season or er, Above his contract value. Cespedes was given 25million per year so you're telling me he's 8million more than Braun when his offense has never been better than Braun's career offense? Of which Braun is currently exceeding? MLBTR had the one comment with a scout or someone, saying Ryan Braun, now that's the name I'm waiting for. 15million a year is Below a QO which is based on average of top 75 players in MLB salary.

That is a roundabout way for their pitching staff. Garza replaces Matz, Garza replaces Bartolo next season. Wheeler pitches full season next season. Oh wait nevermind. Matz left his last start with elbow tightness. Injured risk. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/06/20/palladino-mets-steven-matz-zack-wheeler/

I look forward to when Medeiros proves the haters wrong. Watch him turn in to a Jake Arrieta, all he needs is time.

He has no trade value this season. He's Bullpen destined or sat for the remainder of the season when he's nearing 165IP. It appears to me 152IP is his most in a full year back in 2011. He's at 77.2IP now. I think he filled the role of keeping Lopez/Hader/Jungmann down for service time. Maybe if he reached 165IP, a team in the offseason would consider trading for him like Atlanta or Minnesota. A team that can use him to play filler. But for season 2016 he has 0 trade value.

Flores has been deemed a no go at SS by the Mets. So his versatality becomes 2b or 3b and which his 3b stats are exceptionally poor for the position. Leaves 2b where you stomach his offensive offense. Maybe he's young enough he'll grow in to a better batter, but at this point, he's only getting starts for David Wright's injury otherwise he'd either be a PH, or in AAA. The Zach Wheeler trade idea to Boston, He will return to the staff supposedly within a month and have starts before the Aug 1st deadline. Boston is in on SP acquiring and maybe to them Wheeler is worth the price tag. The Mets don't get enough in the deal for the cost. While Lucroy is worth the haul big time and Smith is worth some pieces, Boston isn't giving up enough to get Wheeler to the Mets as well as Smith from Milwaukee. Bos's #2/5&16th ranked prospects get a SP/BP While Mets SP/#2/8&16 Get Lucroy and a 3b rental who's not a big improvement over Flores. Boston has to add something to the Mets Something like Devin Marrero or even better as I liked him, Michael Chavis to the Mets. Marrero would make sense if the Mets are trading their SS prospect away.

Isn't that kind of the point though? Taking a risk and buying low on a guy if you believe in him and think he's capable of more. Different situation and position, but that's exactly what we did with Gomez. If he puts together a breakout season he obviously becomes much more expensive at that point. He looks like a #3 starter and we control him through his age 32 season. Why exactly do we need to extend him? If we try to lock up FA years we are committing good money to a pitcher well past 30 years old way before that time actually comes. I don't think an extension would provide a ton of upside for the Brewers, but they could do it. I say it probably would not have much upside because the odds Nelson is better than a #3 are slim(IMHO) and I doubt he would sign an extension for pennies. 5/$25mil? He really hasn't done anything to warrant much money. Even that may be too much. 5/25 to me is too little and he'd just leave himself at the mercy of Arbitration. How much can he improve age 27 to age 28? Carlos Carrasco had 380IP roughly at age 27 signed 4/22mil contract with 9+9.5million options which will be his FA years. Essentially skipping his Arb years(Super 2) Now he'd been hurt and had his clock wound back to make him a Super 2. His 1st year of that contract was his 1st real Full Season's worth of starts with 183IP. You could put the two in a stats similar/age similar category and I suppose give him the same kind of contract offer after this year. 4/22+2/18.5 option years. Nelson had this kind of patch in May/June last year before a solid 9 of 10 start stretch where his ERA dropped from 4.5 to 3.7. He was at 4.64ERA his highest on last season after start 14, so hopefully he turns it around like he did last season at 14starts 3.92. Should he and then not have a poor September finish his ERA will be a solid 3.3s-3.5s. and he's still on pace for 200IP. Brett Anderson who hadn't pitched over 112innings since his 2nd season signed for 10million still by Dodgers last year, his 1st FA qualified year. Pitched 180innings and agreed to the 15.8mil QO the Dodgers offered him. Stats that would be similar to Nelson's last season. So there's your market on pitchers who can provide 30+games started. 180innings+ Nelson is above that to this point. Teams will take him in an instant if they need a #3-5 SP. And should he just produce to a 3.85ERA but giving 180+innings in a season, he'll be valued over 10million.