brewcrewdue80

The rumor on the Jets WR owed 10.5M mentioned another team. I'm guessing they are including the WR in a 3 team deal to make cap room to sign Lazard? Draft picks involved? From GB or Jets maybe both? Rather than just release the WR and the contract trying to get something out of it? Rodgers it sounds looks not only to add Lazard, but Lewis, with Cobb and OBJ. You add that both GB&NYJ need to have the payroll side worked out for the impending draft+FA $$. Just a complicated mess to pull off.

Yeah this is kinda what I meant when talking about finding a way to .500 or a game or 2 above. The division being really bad. Nate as to your QB quality in this draft, I've heard I believe 4 QBs picked in first 9 selections? That seems like a lot when also suggesting a strong defense group for the draft. I know 1st yr QBs don't generally make immediate impacts. This is 1.1 so Carolina has the best shot drafting the QB who does.

Is this a haul? It's a solid trade no doubt, but Carolina didn't make a move like the Bears trading all those 1st rd picks to move up 1 spot. 1-9 and 61 this year. A future 1st that if Carolina lands the correct QB immediately jumps to a .500 team. So 15th-ish?. Then a year later a 2nd rd where now may be in 60s again. DJ Moore is a good get but at 17.5M a year. Rather than picking up a rookie 1st rd WR under a rookie contract by finding a team who had 2 1sts to trade you this year. That they only gain 1 draft pick this season. Again I think it's a solid trade, but that 2nd rd pick in 2025 makes this feel quite light. I think a 4th rd this season is better than waiting for a 2nd rd 2 years later.

Favre to Rodgers, some Fandom take on the two. Favre can be comparable with recovering from pain addiction(wrote a book about it), losing his father, being married and his wife going through cancer. This aside from his Mississippi roots and farm tractors. Rodgers never married, not close to his family, Dates Olivia Munn, Danica Patrick, Shailene Woodley who was engaged to. Never followed through. What really is there in his outside NFL life that fans could compare with? While I'd like to say fans will remain strong on Favre's end over Rodgers 5-10years from now, probably won't be true since older generations pass on and the Rodgers generation will still be here. To the trade idea with Jets. If the cap space will be troubled by adding a 1st rd pick, then I'd assume a 2nd rd pick with conditional 2nd or 1st rd depending say if that Jets pick would be top 10 next year. That Sauce comment is interesting. Do 3 team trades happen in the NFL? Could we see a team trade for Wilson send us their backup QB as we'll need 1 with a Rodgers departure. And the idea of doom days ahead. And to Packers SB expectations/projections last season. Gary was lost and our Def Cord. ran a poor scheme for 5? 6games? In to the season. Wasted use of what should have been a better defensive team. Majority of that defense still here. There are 2 legit RBs still here. High potential WRs to grow a QB with. Not annointing them SB expectations in 2023, just that being .500 team or a game or 2 better isnt out of reality. Love comes in to a good situation with regard to having players around him to shoulder a load vs relying all on him. Lafluer and company drafted him with MLF's scheme in mind you would think. Rodgers may have gotten away with overriding MLF's playcalling. Maybe his scheme would produce better with a QB who stuck more with it. Through these last 30years the Central/North has mostly been lacking quality beyond the Packers. And I wouldn't expect much of a change with the QBs now leading the other 3 teams. Teams have succeeded in years without an elite QB, its tougher certainly but great defensive teams have won SBs. We could be that team with a few adds to defense in this draft and growth from the young players returning.

There os the issue comparing Hiura extension to extending Mitchell, Wiemer, Chourio, and Frelick Turang too. They are all expected to be plus defenders or in Frelick's case he's hovering at 15% k Pct. That protects the investment if the offense doesn't hold up to the defenders and Frelick the defense side. Hiura has always been questioned if he could hold on to 2b defensively. He's short not ideal for 1b. And the DH wasn't an option yet in 2019. You gotta figure these guys will provide 2WAR on defense and baserunning alone and the hitting when it's right better than 4WAR.

Well pitching future as to depth this year and 2024. Espino " over four Double-A starts before getting sidelined by knee tendinitis, then got shut down with shoulder soreness. After his shoulder continued to bother him this winter, he was diagnosed with a muscle strain and a capsule tear, so the Guardians sidelined him again and it's unclear when his 2023 season will begin" The #1 pitching prospect. Gavin Williams #2 team prospect. has 3 starts at AA. That's a 2024 at best mid season addition. #5 Bibee looks legit why I look for them back in a trade. Another AA 2024 addition. #8 Logan Allen. Stats to project as 3-4SP not top of the rotation(similar to Lauer who's a 3-4) #13 Justin Campbell. Picked in 2022 hasn't pitched yet 3+years away. So the future has just that future away. There's no addition in 2023 they would have adding to playoff roster. Very unlikely a SP from this list beginning the 2024 season and as a Rookie in 2024 mid season do you have faith to pitch them in playoffs in 2024? So reliable future begins on a 2025 season in my opinion. The premise here is does Cleveland see the AL as weakened to make a push for a WS with the defending division winners addressing the matchups at the top of their rotations? My take on what a Burnes trade could look like is a scenario Cleveland wants to pursue a run at WS this season/next improving the team as soon as Burnes has become available to trade for. Espino could be a headache with injuries just delaying his future multiple years. Allen the closest to Majors has the 3/4 stat profile. In between you're looking at a 2024 addition. The depth is very thin so to me its realistic they trade for an immediate upgrade. Edit add seeing this comment. Heck, Espino & Valera are hurt right now... If those 2 are healthy & performing, they might be filling roles in CLE by the trade deadline. Valera is already on the 40 man roster & Espino is Rule 5 eligible after this season. With his injury the idea he'd get a role helping the team this season and staying protected on rule 5 is ending his SP future and he becomes a late inning RP for a long time to come. It takes a multitude of seasons building up from a max of 91 IP in a professional season. Which looks unlikely he'll exceed with that injury news above. His future as a SP is 3+ years away to build up over 20Games started at 6IP.

And that's all good. More of just an example of what a trade can look like when you don't have a SS locked in for 6/7years at 17+Mil a season. With the OF&C looking set for next 7seasons you squeeze even more at SS with Adames extension the trade options and quality of a return potentially. If you take away the SS options what can Minnesota even offer logically to acquire Woody? You're removing an entire trade team option and there is a lot of 2024 players turning FA. I guess there's always the 3rd team route.

Scanning just a few of those SS. Minnesota has 2 top 50 SS. #31 Brooks Lee 8th pick last year. And Royce Lewis #1 overall 2017 at #45. So an example on a return I'd assume Woodruff as a Twins target and getting Lee Priellip 2nd rd pick, 1 of either Kirilloff(unlikely) or Jose Miranda(more likely) You'd never consider this trade if you extended Adames.

This. You need to consider where they may prefer putting 20-30Mil a year investment. Chourio, Wiemer, Frelick, Mitchell. You toss multiple 6-14M seasons on these guys over 7-8year time frame over a single 18-23M year SS. A position becoming loaded with talent. Everyone is starting out at SS. Chourio was signed as a SS and his talent/speed moved him into OF. When you think about future returns on trades. You're stacked at OF and if talented SS are growing left and right, that position could actually be one filled now vs blocked. There are 14 SS listed to start the season in top 50 ranks. 22 overall in top 100. In any Burnes/Wodruff/Adames trade you'll want at least 1 top 50 prospect. SSs occupy over 1/4 of that group.

Cleveland could be an interesting team that could use Burnes or Woodruff. They sit with 7 prospects in the MLB top 100. 3 of them pitchers. They also graduated former 40s-50s Nolan Jones as an OF displacing him from 3rd base with Ramirez locked in til 2028 there. Shane Bieber sits like Burnes and Woodruff with just another year remaining after 2023. Quantrill and Plesac another 2 years after this season. Gavin Williams, Nolan Jones, and Tanner Bibee. That's be current #42 and #65 with Jones as a former #50 roughly. Probably look to pry a RP in the making as well. I'm seeing a Joey Cantillo who looks the swingman RP part. Jones could take on the 3b role in the future and you get 2 solid looking SPs to call up around the time all our guys depart after 2024. Forgot to add why does Cleveland do this? because their staff isn't stout and could use the addition to go on a run. They don't really have the depth backup to maintain a full season. Their top guy Bieber as noted leaves after 2024 and without the future looking bright on their pitching prospects, they can shoot for what may be a weakened AL Championship. Jones being out of position and at a position Cleveland is good with and growing in the minors, easy to trade off.

Watched a Dodger suggested YouTube discussing a trade for Burnes, pro/cons. Their final offer on btv had them sending 63.3M value while Burnes had 78.5M or near. Definitely started 78.M Think it was like #2&4 team prospect rank with added below 10s team ranks. Or one of the 2 and Tony Gonsolin and spare parts. I would think Vargas who's #3 and one of their top SPs before even beginning added parts. Another 1 had Toronto saying he'd be a great fit for them but didn't think they could work out a deal. One of the minor things on taking lotto tickets right now is the depth and international signings in the system. Rule 5 protecting. There is bound to be a point where the unprotected lotto tickets are drafted due to sheer number of talents that are growing in the Brewers system. So with the amount of potential trades between the big 2 SPs, Lauer, Tellez, and Adames. You have to believe the targets are like Contreras a 1+year into their ML career.

Taylor is the OF with plus defense. Anderson shouldn't see playing time in the OF. Then you mention Toro and Perkins, and Miller. These guys are the AAAA replacements for serious injury bugs. If any of them got more than 60PAs I'll be surprised. We can't fill the 26man roster with 20 position players.

I don't really think there is a battle. I think it's cut and dry what the 5 SPs will be at full health. Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, and Miley. Lauer at 6 and Houser at 7 with both being bullpen bodies. Still honestly feel a trade off on one of Miley, Lauer, or Houser occurs around Opening day as teams deal with their own SP fallout on not ready to field even 5 SPs. Alexander may just remain the backup option as the season progresses and we don't have 5 SPs to throw on their days.

Looks like for Urias he changed his approach to hit more HRs which got him his debut. With the shift ban, the launch angle craze may dwindle a little not focusing on hitting it over well placed fielders to even over the wall and being able to send solid contact through the holes that wasn't there the previous seasons. All the guys I listed except Frelick are 23-26 k pct. I'll wait til they are through their age 27 season before believing they can't improve their contact skills.

It'll be interesting to see where the Brewers rank over the next 3 years when Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, and Wiemer take on full time rolls. Contreras and Turang as well. The k pct should lower, BA higher so do we go back above 15th or stay lower 6.

You can't sell me on this one. This doesn't sound like Park Factors at all. Determined by looking at each pitcher and batter, controlled by handedness and comparing the frequency of that metric in a selected park to the performance of the players in those other parks. So it's a guess. An assumption. I mean the sample size to create such a number and then implement players in a different ballpark and guess the results at that ball park. You would be putting pitchers and players in ballparks where they didn't even play in, in to that equation. Brewer hitters strike out a ton as do opposing hitters vs Brewer Batters. So either that is a huge factor in this ranking, or the sample size they are taking from Miller Park numbers is smaller than typical ballparks. 2014: Brewer pitchers at home 21.713 k pct Batters at home 18.574 k pct 2022:Brewer pitchers at home 26.937 k pct Batters at home 24.538 k pct. So if striking out goes in to this park factor well that's quite the change right there between 2014 and 2022. Or like I said reduces the amount balls put in play making a smaller sample determining this park factor on singles. Brewer bats overall hit .235 at home in 22 .258 at home in 2014 Pitchers against .218 at home in 22 against .242 at home in 2014. You can see how projections works with K pct affecting Batting averages.

This is a weird stat without changing the field dimensions or other teams changing field dimension or new ball parks. We have the dome ability to block bad weather. So if not the addition of the 3 factors I mentioned above, how do you adjust singles ball park factors over the years? Does this number come as a reflection to the Pitching on the mound for both teams? The hitters and the combined k rate?

Every season you would extend Lauer is lighting money on fire. You're kidding yourself by saying he would be an Ace on a few teams and otherwise is a 2. Lauer seasonal FIPs make him a #3. His 3rd time through the order last year was near a 900OPS. Gives up too many HRs. Huge red flags as he sits 93MPH with FB. Velocity always declines with age. What's a 91MPH FB Lauer look like with his HR issues? How about as it closes in to 90? Just not the background giving confidence to extend in Milwaukee. Put him in a deep hard to hit HR ballpark and his success can extend longer. It's too bad KC has no push to be good because that park must be the top pitchers ballpark on HR preventing.

The comparison of Hader trading away vs Burnes is a little off imo. There's a difference SP vs RP value. Hader was going to be on his way towards records in ARB for a RP. A QO is the same amount regardless that difference. TJ risks or performance risks(losing FB velo) are more Volatile with a RP who's going to make this huge amount of money for his position. Keeping the SP Burnes whose value will exceed the QO by far more than Hader's is a certainty he's declines, certainty that a team signs him in FA regardless of recent performance or TJ. Which concludes a certainty the Brewers get a comp pick. Hader has another poor season this year and requires TJ, that QO is murky. He may not be offered the QO. He could be offered, and teams or owners wait til after the draft to sign him where there no longer is a QO attached.

In the vacuum of the single play of course a HR is a lot more valuable. Off of Taylor's HR log for last season: 1-Ahead 6-3 Solo HR. Final score 10-5(no impact from HR) 2-Ahead 4-0 8th inning 3Run HR Final Score 7-0 No Impact 3-Behind 0-8 Solo HR Final Score 2-8 No Impact 4- Tied 1-1 3Run HR 6th inning. Final Score 4-1 Win Large Impact. 5-Behind 2-4 top 6th 2 Run HR. Final Score 7-6 Win. 2nd largest impact on game. 6-Ahead 2-1 top 8 Solo HR Final Score 3-1 win. positive impact but not in top 5 plays in game 7-Tied 0-0 Bot 5th 2Run HR Final Score 2-0 Large Impact. 8-Down 1-2 Bot 4 3Run HR Final Score 6-4 Large Impact #1 play in game 9-Behind 1-8 Bot 7 Solo HR Final Score 4-9 No Impact 10-Behind 5-6 Bot 6 Solo HR ties game Final score 10-9 5th largest impact on game 11-Ahead 8-4 Top 9 Solo HR Final Score 9-4 No Impact 12-Ahead 2-0 Bot 2 3Run HR Final Score 5-1 2nd largest impact on game 13-Tied 0-0 Bot 5 Solo HR Final Score 3-4(10) not in top 5 plays of game 14&15- 2HR game Won in 10th aided by Taylor's 2nd HR. Largest Impact yet. 16-Behind 0-5 Bot 3 2Run HR Final Score 2-8. No Impact 17-Ahead 3-1 Bot 2 Solo HR Final Score 8-12 No Impact. 16 Games 17HRs. 7 Large Impact HRs. 6 No Impact HRs. 4 Modest impact HRs. Taylor played in 120 games. 103 Started. 7 Games largely impacted by the HRs. And looks like about 2 Games worth via his defense over an average defender. Even adding the 4 modest HR games to make it 13 games overall that doesn't even add up to once a week impact when you are praising those HR he hits. If he played LF or RF you are disappointed at the lack of HRs with the rest of the batting line. Being able to play CF defensively is what is saving him from just a waiver wire pass around. I mentioned the Fantasy baseball to give an idea where I even come up with that removing HR statistic. When I played there were 7 categories for Offense. Finishing up the last 50pct of the draft, I would have already identified the high floor players who I could target with my picks and they would present better chance of winning the categories because they were average or little better in categories I targeted to win in my strategy. BA/OB/Slg Rs HRs, RBIs and SBs. I'd punt SBs. Stay away from 7-9 hitters. Win or 2nd 5 straight years. The floor that Frelick will provide with getting on base via hits or walks compared to Taylor's occasional HRs I just feel will help the Brewers more scoring runs in run scoring situations. It's a team game he's going to allow batters behind chances to drive him in compared to the chances Taylor gives.

Renfroe 1HR in 16.34 ABs Tellez 1HR in 15.11 ABs Adames 1HR in 18.17 ABs SS position top tier defense Alonso 1HR in 14.93 ABs. Taylor is still a full game of ABs(Adames) and 2 games of ABs before he hits that HR. All of those players walked more frequent than Taylor. It's Statistics and by them Taylor's HR impact is near 1 a week and the others are near 2 HRs a week. Positional impact matters. Tellez was worth .9 BWAR. If he was RH he wouldn't be playing. Milwaukee also doesn't have 4 1b that could step in and produce equal or better numbers than Taylor has. He's only a 4th OF while in his prime now and in 2-3 years he be tossed around to rebuild teams trying to continue losing, if at all.

Wouldn't doubt I messed up. Not an easy task to do all that on the fly. Something I used to do when I played Fantasy Baseball. Helped identify underlying numbers when trying to build a complete team pre-draft. The comparison is that Taylor's value helps the team about 1 game a week when healthy and hurts the team basically 5 games a week when healthy. Frelick's numbers would consistently help the team with the consistency so 4games weekly with 2-3 games not helping weekly. Maybe Taylor adds a game defensively over Frelick to be 2games positive weekly and 4 games not positive. Don't know how Frelick's defense will stand out next to Taylor's. Judge also had 5 times the Walks Taylor did. So he's also on base giving other batters the chance to advance him. That's where Taylor loses with that 529 OPS. He's not only unable to advance runners but he's not even being on base to be advanced by them. The combo Frelick excells in the comparison. To put 529OPS in perspective, Cain had 465 last season and was booted off the team. 1 HR in 22ABs is fair to say 5 games to produce. The other 4games is 529 OPS. Taylor is treading above water. Each year older his defense is going to see a decline. Don't expect him to have a career after his team control.

Take away Taylor's HR PAs and he's producing a .188 BA .257OB .272 Slg 529OPS Frelick less his HRs- .316 BA .389 OB .399 SLG 715 OPS Keep in mind Taylor had 17HRs in 373 ABs 1 in 21.94 Frelick had 11 in 492. 1 in 44.72 So about half the time Comparable would be 8-9 HRs Feeling pretty certain Brewers offense scores quite a lot more runs with Frelick than sticking with Taylor for a few more HRs.

Personally I'd feel much more confident with the bullpen if Houser was destined to only play there for the season.

You're not saying something I don't already know. Though the BTV difference is absurdly shocking. 2years of #1 or 2 SP in all baseball still in Arbitration compared to 6years of #2-5 prospect in all baseball? Outside factors that BTV isn't calculating in Burnes value would include-talks to extend after traded for vs waiting til his Free Agency and getting a return for future Qualifying Offer. This versus losing a draft pick signing Burnes 2 years from now. Nobody knows the state of mind a GM sees their team. As a fan one has to see Baltimore as coming out of a rebuild with numerous promising young talent that will produce playoff teams when healthy. The GM may have other intentions. Maybe influenced with owners preparing to sell. Or the GM believes the team can win now especially adding a Burnes on the team. So far for Henderson his fielding pct at 3b or SS is below .940 in his professional career minors included. Adames hasnt posted 1 season below .940. Urias career in the majors is higher at both SS or 3b. What if a GM sees his future for 2b versus the SS/3B future Henderson is being ranked for? It's highly unlikely but there can always be a chance. Btw they updated Henderson's minors prospect rankings today as Baseball America lists him #1 heading in to 2023. Chourio is #3