brewcrewdue80

By enough picks you mean future picks? They only have 1 pick each round 1 through 6 and no 7th. The total value doesn't even exceed just the #3 pick in the draft. Nice to hear we signed a FA Safety. Amos turned out as a good FA sign. New blood there is needed.

They have a cap before luxury tax. Yankees make so much money, you can't cap and penalize them hurting players potential salaries. I like how Brock made the Television revenue shared point vs the tickets revenue sharing. One would be fixed and more predictable. And I think something more predictable would go a long way towards a salary floor proposal. That's my feeling since retraction isn't an option. I'd personally like to see 2 teams removed from bottom 1/3rd markets and their portions of revenue sharings is spread more to the already receiving teams.

1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 13 seeds first rd.

1-2-3-4-7-9-11-12 seeds 1st rd I'll take.

In terms of draft trade value a pick swap is like getting the 100th selection end of 3rd rd. 1st #13 1150 value. All of Jets remaining picks in 2023 843.5 Value. 20th pick value. Swapping our 2nd for their 1st in the trade is net 700 value. 26th pick value. Jets 2nd and 3rd is 690value. 27th pick value. Swap first and get 2nd is 570 value. About 34th pick value. Gambling with 2024 picks when Rodgers addition could be the best QB Jets have every had in their history by end of 2023? God it's such loss because you see at best an 18th pick value of 900.(condition of making the playoffs worst record with playoff loss) Win SB pick 32 is 590 value. Swap our 2 with their 1 has to be the minimum return value if Rodgers is traded before the draft 700 value. I guess I could say 2&3. For 690value. If you take a 2024 1st it's unconditional if you're not getting the minimum value before it,for 2023. It's nuts to me people would trade Roders away for a 3rd rd pick to be over this.

ADamBR2. This is sorta why I came up with my idea. The draft trade value nets GB about the 26th pick value in the 1st rd by swapping. Jets keep enough value the 2 seconds is enough value to be the 18th pick in a trade. Move up to about 23-25 and they could then take that teams 3rd rd. pick for equal value. Or they just keep 2 top half 2nd rd picks. The trade value between 13 and settling for 43 is a 1st rd value of 780 or #22. That's a big gap when settling for the 2nd vs getting their 1st. You take a 1st next season it stands within reason Rodgers carries them to a 26+ selection. At 26 combined with you have to assume this year's 2nd rd the value stands between #14 and #15 combined. GBs top 2 pick compensation then is below the value of getting this year's 13. It's important to get more than 2nd rd value for Rodgers when your taking on the large hit moneywise.

GB should not give in til they get the Jets 13th pick. The swap idea 15-13 isn't working. Jets don't want to not not have a 1st rd pick this season. Simply tell them swapping your 13+ 3rd with 2024 conditional 3rd, for our 45th in 2023. They'll have 43&45 more than enough to trade back in to 1st round. I'd make the conditional as 3rd with 2nd if win division. 1st if played in AFC Championship game. Send them some money I guess if that's a thing. I've heard mentions during ESPN Milw radio of that, but I didn't think that was a thing could do.

Probably based on the fact there's 0 SB victory chances keeping him here in GB. 13-3, 13-4, B2B MVPs and he didn't get us there. Now? GB defense blew their talent, the DC is back because Rodgers won 4 in row, keeping Barry to ruin them again. Fans dealt with Favre, who's only ruined his image further past his Packers career. Been there done that. Just rip the bandaid off on vs the years of getting our hopes up and then extremely letting fans down in brutal ways. Bucks are excelling, easy timing to take a break on Packers heartbreaks. That Lions game was the nail in the coffin. I can't care less what happens with Rodgers in GB or gone. The FO has shown it wasn't helping Rodgers down the stretch, season after season. They wasted a 1st rd&4th rd pick on Love in 2020 lets go ahead and see how terrible a move they made. I don't want to be robbed of him not starting for a season as a GB QB anymore. Prove to me you were the smartest guy in the room getting Love, vs the dumbest.

The rumor on the Jets WR owed 10.5M mentioned another team. I'm guessing they are including the WR in a 3 team deal to make cap room to sign Lazard? Draft picks involved? From GB or Jets maybe both? Rather than just release the WR and the contract trying to get something out of it? Rodgers it sounds looks not only to add Lazard, but Lewis, with Cobb and OBJ. You add that both GB&NYJ need to have the payroll side worked out for the impending draft+FA $$. Just a complicated mess to pull off.

Yeah this is kinda what I meant when talking about finding a way to .500 or a game or 2 above. The division being really bad. Nate as to your QB quality in this draft, I've heard I believe 4 QBs picked in first 9 selections? That seems like a lot when also suggesting a strong defense group for the draft. I know 1st yr QBs don't generally make immediate impacts. This is 1.1 so Carolina has the best shot drafting the QB who does.

Is this a haul? It's a solid trade no doubt, but Carolina didn't make a move like the Bears trading all those 1st rd picks to move up 1 spot. 1-9 and 61 this year. A future 1st that if Carolina lands the correct QB immediately jumps to a .500 team. So 15th-ish?. Then a year later a 2nd rd where now may be in 60s again. DJ Moore is a good get but at 17.5M a year. Rather than picking up a rookie 1st rd WR under a rookie contract by finding a team who had 2 1sts to trade you this year. That they only gain 1 draft pick this season. Again I think it's a solid trade, but that 2nd rd pick in 2025 makes this feel quite light. I think a 4th rd this season is better than waiting for a 2nd rd 2 years later.

Favre to Rodgers, some Fandom take on the two. Favre can be comparable with recovering from pain addiction(wrote a book about it), losing his father, being married and his wife going through cancer. This aside from his Mississippi roots and farm tractors. Rodgers never married, not close to his family, Dates Olivia Munn, Danica Patrick, Shailene Woodley who was engaged to. Never followed through. What really is there in his outside NFL life that fans could compare with? While I'd like to say fans will remain strong on Favre's end over Rodgers 5-10years from now, probably won't be true since older generations pass on and the Rodgers generation will still be here. To the trade idea with Jets. If the cap space will be troubled by adding a 1st rd pick, then I'd assume a 2nd rd pick with conditional 2nd or 1st rd depending say if that Jets pick would be top 10 next year. That Sauce comment is interesting. Do 3 team trades happen in the NFL? Could we see a team trade for Wilson send us their backup QB as we'll need 1 with a Rodgers departure. And the idea of doom days ahead. And to Packers SB expectations/projections last season. Gary was lost and our Def Cord. ran a poor scheme for 5? 6games? In to the season. Wasted use of what should have been a better defensive team. Majority of that defense still here. There are 2 legit RBs still here. High potential WRs to grow a QB with. Not annointing them SB expectations in 2023, just that being .500 team or a game or 2 better isnt out of reality. Love comes in to a good situation with regard to having players around him to shoulder a load vs relying all on him. Lafluer and company drafted him with MLF's scheme in mind you would think. Rodgers may have gotten away with overriding MLF's playcalling. Maybe his scheme would produce better with a QB who stuck more with it. Through these last 30years the Central/North has mostly been lacking quality beyond the Packers. And I wouldn't expect much of a change with the QBs now leading the other 3 teams. Teams have succeeded in years without an elite QB, its tougher certainly but great defensive teams have won SBs. We could be that team with a few adds to defense in this draft and growth from the young players returning.

There os the issue comparing Hiura extension to extending Mitchell, Wiemer, Chourio, and Frelick Turang too. They are all expected to be plus defenders or in Frelick's case he's hovering at 15% k Pct. That protects the investment if the offense doesn't hold up to the defenders and Frelick the defense side. Hiura has always been questioned if he could hold on to 2b defensively. He's short not ideal for 1b. And the DH wasn't an option yet in 2019. You gotta figure these guys will provide 2WAR on defense and baserunning alone and the hitting when it's right better than 4WAR.

And that's all good. More of just an example of what a trade can look like when you don't have a SS locked in for 6/7years at 17+Mil a season. With the OF&C looking set for next 7seasons you squeeze even more at SS with Adames extension the trade options and quality of a return potentially. If you take away the SS options what can Minnesota even offer logically to acquire Woody? You're removing an entire trade team option and there is a lot of 2024 players turning FA. I guess there's always the 3rd team route.

Scanning just a few of those SS. Minnesota has 2 top 50 SS. #31 Brooks Lee 8th pick last year. And Royce Lewis #1 overall 2017 at #45. So an example on a return I'd assume Woodruff as a Twins target and getting Lee Priellip 2nd rd pick, 1 of either Kirilloff(unlikely) or Jose Miranda(more likely) You'd never consider this trade if you extended Adames.

This. You need to consider where they may prefer putting 20-30Mil a year investment. Chourio, Wiemer, Frelick, Mitchell. You toss multiple 6-14M seasons on these guys over 7-8year time frame over a single 18-23M year SS. A position becoming loaded with talent. Everyone is starting out at SS. Chourio was signed as a SS and his talent/speed moved him into OF. When you think about future returns on trades. You're stacked at OF and if talented SS are growing left and right, that position could actually be one filled now vs blocked. There are 14 SS listed to start the season in top 50 ranks. 22 overall in top 100. In any Burnes/Wodruff/Adames trade you'll want at least 1 top 50 prospect. SSs occupy over 1/4 of that group.

Taylor is the OF with plus defense. Anderson shouldn't see playing time in the OF. Then you mention Toro and Perkins, and Miller. These guys are the AAAA replacements for serious injury bugs. If any of them got more than 60PAs I'll be surprised. We can't fill the 26man roster with 20 position players.

I don't really think there is a battle. I think it's cut and dry what the 5 SPs will be at full health. Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, and Miley. Lauer at 6 and Houser at 7 with both being bullpen bodies. Still honestly feel a trade off on one of Miley, Lauer, or Houser occurs around Opening day as teams deal with their own SP fallout on not ready to field even 5 SPs. Alexander may just remain the backup option as the season progresses and we don't have 5 SPs to throw on their days.

Looks like for Urias he changed his approach to hit more HRs which got him his debut. With the shift ban, the launch angle craze may dwindle a little not focusing on hitting it over well placed fielders to even over the wall and being able to send solid contact through the holes that wasn't there the previous seasons. All the guys I listed except Frelick are 23-26 k pct. I'll wait til they are through their age 27 season before believing they can't improve their contact skills.

It'll be interesting to see where the Brewers rank over the next 3 years when Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, and Wiemer take on full time rolls. Contreras and Turang as well. The k pct should lower, BA higher so do we go back above 15th or stay lower 6.

You can't sell me on this one. This doesn't sound like Park Factors at all. Determined by looking at each pitcher and batter, controlled by handedness and comparing the frequency of that metric in a selected park to the performance of the players in those other parks. So it's a guess. An assumption. I mean the sample size to create such a number and then implement players in a different ballpark and guess the results at that ball park. You would be putting pitchers and players in ballparks where they didn't even play in, in to that equation. Brewer hitters strike out a ton as do opposing hitters vs Brewer Batters. So either that is a huge factor in this ranking, or the sample size they are taking from Miller Park numbers is smaller than typical ballparks. 2014: Brewer pitchers at home 21.713 k pct Batters at home 18.574 k pct 2022:Brewer pitchers at home 26.937 k pct Batters at home 24.538 k pct. So if striking out goes in to this park factor well that's quite the change right there between 2014 and 2022. Or like I said reduces the amount balls put in play making a smaller sample determining this park factor on singles. Brewer bats overall hit .235 at home in 22 .258 at home in 2014 Pitchers against .218 at home in 22 against .242 at home in 2014. You can see how projections works with K pct affecting Batting averages.

This is a weird stat without changing the field dimensions or other teams changing field dimension or new ball parks. We have the dome ability to block bad weather. So if not the addition of the 3 factors I mentioned above, how do you adjust singles ball park factors over the years? Does this number come as a reflection to the Pitching on the mound for both teams? The hitters and the combined k rate?

Every season you would extend Lauer is lighting money on fire. You're kidding yourself by saying he would be an Ace on a few teams and otherwise is a 2. Lauer seasonal FIPs make him a #3. His 3rd time through the order last year was near a 900OPS. Gives up too many HRs. Huge red flags as he sits 93MPH with FB. Velocity always declines with age. What's a 91MPH FB Lauer look like with his HR issues? How about as it closes in to 90? Just not the background giving confidence to extend in Milwaukee. Put him in a deep hard to hit HR ballpark and his success can extend longer. It's too bad KC has no push to be good because that park must be the top pitchers ballpark on HR preventing.

The comparison of Hader trading away vs Burnes is a little off imo. There's a difference SP vs RP value. Hader was going to be on his way towards records in ARB for a RP. A QO is the same amount regardless that difference. TJ risks or performance risks(losing FB velo) are more Volatile with a RP who's going to make this huge amount of money for his position. Keeping the SP Burnes whose value will exceed the QO by far more than Hader's is a certainty he's declines, certainty that a team signs him in FA regardless of recent performance or TJ. Which concludes a certainty the Brewers get a comp pick. Hader has another poor season this year and requires TJ, that QO is murky. He may not be offered the QO. He could be offered, and teams or owners wait til after the draft to sign him where there no longer is a QO attached.

In the vacuum of the single play of course a HR is a lot more valuable. Off of Taylor's HR log for last season: 1-Ahead 6-3 Solo HR. Final score 10-5(no impact from HR) 2-Ahead 4-0 8th inning 3Run HR Final Score 7-0 No Impact 3-Behind 0-8 Solo HR Final Score 2-8 No Impact 4- Tied 1-1 3Run HR 6th inning. Final Score 4-1 Win Large Impact. 5-Behind 2-4 top 6th 2 Run HR. Final Score 7-6 Win. 2nd largest impact on game. 6-Ahead 2-1 top 8 Solo HR Final Score 3-1 win. positive impact but not in top 5 plays in game 7-Tied 0-0 Bot 5th 2Run HR Final Score 2-0 Large Impact. 8-Down 1-2 Bot 4 3Run HR Final Score 6-4 Large Impact #1 play in game 9-Behind 1-8 Bot 7 Solo HR Final Score 4-9 No Impact 10-Behind 5-6 Bot 6 Solo HR ties game Final score 10-9 5th largest impact on game 11-Ahead 8-4 Top 9 Solo HR Final Score 9-4 No Impact 12-Ahead 2-0 Bot 2 3Run HR Final Score 5-1 2nd largest impact on game 13-Tied 0-0 Bot 5 Solo HR Final Score 3-4(10) not in top 5 plays of game 14&15- 2HR game Won in 10th aided by Taylor's 2nd HR. Largest Impact yet. 16-Behind 0-5 Bot 3 2Run HR Final Score 2-8. No Impact 17-Ahead 3-1 Bot 2 Solo HR Final Score 8-12 No Impact. 16 Games 17HRs. 7 Large Impact HRs. 6 No Impact HRs. 4 Modest impact HRs. Taylor played in 120 games. 103 Started. 7 Games largely impacted by the HRs. And looks like about 2 Games worth via his defense over an average defender. Even adding the 4 modest HR games to make it 13 games overall that doesn't even add up to once a week impact when you are praising those HR he hits. If he played LF or RF you are disappointed at the lack of HRs with the rest of the batting line. Being able to play CF defensively is what is saving him from just a waiver wire pass around. I mentioned the Fantasy baseball to give an idea where I even come up with that removing HR statistic. When I played there were 7 categories for Offense. Finishing up the last 50pct of the draft, I would have already identified the high floor players who I could target with my picks and they would present better chance of winning the categories because they were average or little better in categories I targeted to win in my strategy. BA/OB/Slg Rs HRs, RBIs and SBs. I'd punt SBs. Stay away from 7-9 hitters. Win or 2nd 5 straight years. The floor that Frelick will provide with getting on base via hits or walks compared to Taylor's occasional HRs I just feel will help the Brewers more scoring runs in run scoring situations. It's a team game he's going to allow batters behind chances to drive him in compared to the chances Taylor gives.