brewcrewdue80

The original thought I said was Henderson but that was when it appeared he was a #70s prospect. When checking the current list he's like 5 or something and I backed out to the next further down but with 2 prospects return. If Baltimore is turning down Corbin Burnes for Gunnar Henderson as you suggest, what a mistake when looking for a SP. Henderson appears their 3b but I'm not sure defensively he can stick there. Milwaukee could send Anderson as insurance for the 3b position in any trade involving Henderson. I'm kinda coming from the idea that Mayo's road would be blocked at 3b. As he climbs levels the risky K pct should it climb would wipe out his current trade value. In the trade idea Baltimore is buying and I'd definitely want something bigger than another OF or a not proving value with Povich. I don't see the upside in both those players who are still well over a year away. Johnson just makes sense when thinking SP/RP He could Start early in games in the minors and as his innings climb move to RP and consider shuttling him to the Brewers if he appears ready. Houser is definitely skilled to be a great RP. Somewhere I said he lost velo on FB but didn't on this secondary pitches which I believe made him more hittable. Plus his walk rate inched higher. Depending where his velo sits likely determines his SP or RP role.

Houser's name popped up in a MLBTR article that Baltimore is searching for a Starter addition. Guess a guy in Baltimore had history with Houser when in Houston as the tie to the idea. Any trade ideas if you sent Houser to Baltimore? At first I wondered on Gunnar Henderson but I didn't realize he was like top 5 sitting on lists. BRef listed in the 50s/70s preseason last season. He would be a headliner in a Woodruff or Burnes deal. Looking down MLB list among their top 10 prospects, there are what reads high risk, high reward types in Coby Mayo and Seth Johnson. If Baltimore would part with both for Houser, I think that would be a trade to agree with for Houser. The two are more 2024 potential than seeing games in 2023 so I'd venture the Brewers FO wouldn't make that trade expecting to find someone to play in 2023.

Who is Milw waiving from the SP rotation? He also lines up with being gone after 2seasons. The rotation doesn't need adding. Not short term. Beyond 2024 yes but not up to 2024. Need bats. Not trading bats for short term pitching. Extensions take two to tango. Not a good sign Miami hasn't extended Lopez already to believe his next team will before Free Agency. They did sign Cueto to a 1+1 deal. Lopez has real solid numbers yet via that rumor and trade offers he's giving off value of a #3-4 SP vibe vs a solid #2 value. So that's like 15-18mil FA years on extension. Miami should have done that vs get Cueto. Gotta be Lopez wanted no extension.

Cain had a great first 2 seasons. 2020 happened and I think based how he played out 21-22 that he became more invested in his kids and family than really caring about baseball. Players and stats in this 2020-2024 window we're in just come with an asterisk. There was the lockout last offseason. Minors didn't play a game in 2020. Think some of what we've seen with Free Agency this offseason is closer return to business as normal. The team if possible should still sign a future Cain deal when the right opportunity appears. What happened last season is an after effect of 2020. Unfortunately continues with how often a good Brewer team is stricken with bad luck.

Cain had a great first 2 seasons. 2020 happened and I think based how he played out 21-22 that he became more invested in his kids and family than really caring about baseball. Players and stats in this 2020-2024 window we're in just come with an asterisk. There was the lockout last offseason. Minors didn't play a game in 2020. Think some of what we've seen with Free Agency this offseason is closer return to business as normal. The team if possible should still sign a future Cain deal when the right opportunity appears. What happened last season is an after effect of 2020. Unfortunately continues with how often a good Brewer team is stricken with bad luck.

Lauer isn't a #1-2 type pitcher. He's posting #3 numbers while carrying scary #4-5 Fip numbers. He gave up 27HRs last season and the HRs aren't coming from nowhere. Just another average year 1.3HRs/9. I think the fact he's left handed is where he outperforms his expected Fip/ERA. He's useful til he's not. Definitely not worth an extension. Think about it. Nobody clamor that he should pitch from the bullpen. He doesn't have a plus pitch to his name. Looking it up and didn't realize not only are Burnes, Woodruff, &Lauer FAs after 2 seasons but so is Houser. That does bring merit towards adding a Cabrera or Braxton Garrett to the staff. Not an offseason move that makes sense for Milw but mid-season or next offseason.

Lauer isn't a #1-2 type pitcher. He's posting #3 numbers while carrying scary #4-5 Fip numbers. He gave up 27HRs last season and the HRs aren't coming from nowhere. Just another average year 1.3HRs/9. I think the fact he's left handed is where he outperforms his expected Fip/ERA. He's useful til he's not. Definitely not worth an extension. Think about it. Nobody clamor that he should pitch from the bullpen. He doesn't have a plus pitch to his name. Looking it up and didn't realize not only are Burnes, Woodruff, &Lauer FAs after 2 seasons but so is Houser. That does bring merit towards adding a Cabrera or Braxton Garrett to the staff. Not an offseason move that makes sense for Milw but mid-season or next offseason.

I'm thinking where Milw sits is similar to a timeframe before making the trade for Adames. No pitching trades will happen until right up to or after Opening Day. We've had some minor injuries that caused some delay to starting the season healthy. Team needs Houser and the article is just clickbait. When the team enters Opening Day healthy and more options than roster spaces, then they'll look to swing a deal. Other teams such as Boston(who just lost Story for the season) will suffer injuries and have a need we could fill. More desperate means higher return.

I'm thinking where Milw sits is similar to a timeframe before making the trade for Adames. No pitching trades will happen until right up to or after Opening Day. We've had some minor injuries that caused some delay to starting the season healthy. Team needs Houser and the article is just clickbait. When the team enters Opening Day healthy and more options than roster spaces, then they'll look to swing a deal. Other teams such as Boston(who just lost Story for the season) will suffer injuries and have a need we could fill. More desperate means higher return.

Up there with Cirillo as a fan fave during those seasons. Like Yount had that great stache.

Devers bat is Elite. This is Josh Donaldson while in prime territory. He's younger than Adames while playing longer than Adames has. There is the DH for Devers' bat skills to maintain that contract value. Adames meanwhile value is from the defense and bat production for SS position. His future bat production wouldn't be carried in the DH position. Devers contract should have near 0 relation to what Adames contract would look like. The bat profile is so far behind. Add the age with added team control extension to same age is 8years beyond. Adames is a defense first so lop off 2 years as age decline will affect him more. (Sooner than Devers) Think I posted somewhere 8/175 similar to what Swanson got as the best comp you could get. Side note: I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did. What an impact that could have been.

Devers bat is Elite. This is Josh Donaldson while in prime territory. He's younger than Adames while playing longer than Adames has. There is the DH for Devers' bat skills to maintain that contract value. Adames meanwhile value is from the defense and bat production for SS position. His future bat production wouldn't be carried in the DH position. Devers contract should have near 0 relation to what Adames contract would look like. The bat profile is so far behind. Add the age with added team control extension to same age is 8years beyond. Adames is a defense first so lop off 2 years as age decline will affect him more. (Sooner than Devers) Think I posted somewhere 8/175 similar to what Swanson got as the best comp you could get. Side note: I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did. What an impact that could have been.

The way I'm reading the OP, I'd definitely believe the teams who pick 1-6 are the teams that aren't allowed on the following seasons. I could see how a 13th place team moving in to top 6 and having a losing season the following where they were/are more likely to pick in top 6, arguing that they should be allowed to stay but I mean they would only drop less than 6 picks? How you going to win the argument when you were just awarded an earlier pick the year before. It's a great move in the right direction to penalize a team tanking multiple seasons in a row, to go with the rewards for playing a top 100 prospect from the moment a season begins, to the prospect gaining a full season service time finishing top 2. Tanking teams wouldn't want to play their top prospects until forced by the prospect. Kris Bryant the full example not being played in Sept and held back even further from Opening day just to gain the 7th season team control while tanking that season before. I would think top prospects are called up earlier now with this change for the better for baseball and fans.

The splits graph has a consistent .300-310 BABIP with 2 months 400+ and 500+, the .500 plus was in 7games used. I think your seeing .300+ BaBIP displays how good a hitter he could be if he wouldn't (as noted above) swing and miss pitches that are in the zone. That .400+BABIP is reasonable when he's hitting line drives during a hot streak. Not full season but he could carry multiple games for the offense with that month. Just can't maintain a 20-23pct k rate to see the value his bat provides. I would believe there are teams to trade him to. But I don't believe teams are meeting the asking price(probably a valuable lottery ticket prospect included) Also we put out there teams that are not in competitive to use and play him. That's pretty few right now with 3 of them in our division. Then you have Hiura's defense liabilities and fitting him with that teams roster current make up. Take KC. Their big contract player is Sal Perez a C/DH. They have a top 50 prospect who's Lefty graduate at 1b. And Hunter Dozier another top 3 paid player on KC who is an infield Util at 2b/1b/DH. They may be in mid rebuild with no chance at 80 wins, but have no use for Hiura. Texas? They have a 155game starting stud 1b in Nathaniel Lowe. Why acquire Hiura to only take up games as DH. I think in the end this is a trade to Pittsburgh like we've done in the past for a scrap RP the Brewers can option this year and may have below 4ERA ability. And a prospect that is a swing SP likely RP who's a year away from Rule 5 protection and turning 25 this uear.

I'd probably have Frelick 9 Mitchell 7 and Turang 8. You said it on vs LHP, Taylor and Brosseau, swap out 1 Lefty Of and Turang. If you can't see 4runs a game, you're not seeing the importance to Winker over McCutchen. Contreras over any Catcher. Mitchell/Frelick over Cain/Davis. We add that Turner fella you're taking the pressure off Turang's PA load as well as Hiura's 3TO style.

Man I'd think Chourio straight up may be a hard sell. What a stud in the making. Switch hitting SS/3b. Looks better via splits as a LHB than RHB so he has the platoon side you want for a switch hitter really love the fact checking he faced 1 LHP as a LH bat and hit a HR off them. Like Chourio, all but 1 pitcher he faced last season was older than him.(every pitcher was for Chourio!) Considering the OF prospects Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer, I'd certainly be willing to do that heads up trade involving Chourio.

Off topic but Reds related and mild rant. Min rumor is open to a Sonnt Gray or Kenta Maeda trade. I went over to check on Gray's stats because I've felt folks thought of him as a #2 near #1 but he produced #4 numbers. Guess he had a decent couple seasons. Min acquired Gray from Cincy and I thought what did they give up? Min sent over their 1st rd selection in 2021 Chase Petty only. Sonny Gray is being paid 12+Mil this season which after Bassitt's FA deal must be 5mil savings Im thinking. So who's this Chase Petty a top 100 prospect I'm sure? Drafted out of HS 1st rd 2.5Mil signing. 70grade FB and 50s across the board. Pitched near 100innings last season below 4ERA good SO/BB rates. Yet here he is #9 for Cincy top 30 prospects. And I'm thinking immediately had the Dodgers, Atl, Yankees, and Cardinals drafted Petty in 1st rd with 2.5M signing, he'd be between 50-80 overall once the list was updated after the draft. Probably top 30 now after his 22 season when preseason lists update. Think Michael Kopech because he jad 100MPH velocity, that's what Petty has! He just was drafted to wrong organization. Just remember that name Petty as he'll be carving up Brewer hitters. For the deep fantasy baseball players out there you may want to stash or trade for him before mid-season passes. Another case in point here maybe towards Ruiz giving back such a return. Petty brought back Gray + a minor leaguer. (Oh I will say that the way Petty is progressing by prospect rankings is what I wish it were more like) Never liked a 1st rd choice immediately being added as top 25 or 50. 85-100 sure, but let's see a season played professionally before anointing them in upper tier of prospects. 1 bad immediate injury with a long recovery and now they are sitting in that spot with low if any games played. OK rant over.

While there will be benefits, the Brewers defense can't shift now either. I don't know their stats the last 2 seasons with playing shifts. Now the big 3 are high k rate pitchers, Ashby/Lauer how will this affect them? Houser is such a groundball inducing pitcher, I wonder if this hurts or helps him, considering the defense playing standard would cover more 1b-3b of the diamond. You article got in to the LH batters, but I put something on Adames and his shift numbers being drastic. Looking it up now. About 25pct or 151 PAs they list and Adames had a .248 vs .347 wOBA. .1 is easy to determine a +15 times he should reach on base. I also mentioned with regards to Tellez his BABIP could be driven by his practically slowest speed running. Tellez only jad a .02 difference between shifted and not shifted. 460PAs is about 9 more times he should been on base. Adames had a .278 BABIP while career sits .325. MLB avg shown on BRef at .294. It's one reason to hold on to him this season vs trade as Adames should see an improved BA/OB. The HRs and slg you can't determine +or- with shifting or not.

His offensive numbers aren't even that impressive unless you account it at the catcher position. 745OPs as a corner OF is nothing to dream on. Closer to non-tender than extend.with his Super 2 status. BTV checking right now shows Varsho only at C. I wouldnt trade 2years of Woodruff + for 4 Super 2 years of Varsho. But that's what they believe is needed. Fwiw Varsho is 0-6 with 3ks vs Woodruff.

The idea is more in line that Sanchez is RH bat and in 2021 OPS over .900 vs Starters. 800+ vs LHs overall. Sat just over 700OPS vs LH starters in 22. Also Narvaez hit a total 17HRs the 3 seasons in Milw. Sanchez with 49 his last three. I think when looking at the other mediocre C FAs Sanchez tops them on HR ability. Statcast also has Sanchez top 10 Pop times to 2b and 3b every year in his career. That may help defend the new base size, 29% career caught stealing. Looks about .1 seconds better than Narvaez aside from 2022 3b pop times where Narvaez had a career best only .01 from Sanchez. It's really tough on deciding the route you want to take. The FA route costs just money but you are getting -1 to 1WAR players. Trading will cost you at least Mitchell grade and more prospects. While you improve at Catcher, the lost Mitchell + makes it feel lateral and possibly worse over the next 2seasons. You can just wait on Quero. I believe any trade for 1 of Toronto's Catchers will cost us 1 of the team's current SPs with the Mitchell grade prospect. Catchers are that 70-125 games max behind the plate, is that approx 800 OPS really important in your lineup?

I think I'd sign Gary Sanchez to a 1+1 mutual option deal. 1yr 7.5Mil with mutual option of 9Mil. 1.5Mil buyout. So 2/16.5 max. I think Sanchez by looks offers the most floor/ceiling combo of FAs. The more and more I look and read about Jeferson Quero-19 success at A level already, no doubt defensively. I just dont want to hold that back when he's ready. He's going to be in top 100 lists sooner than later. I look at Moreno on Blue Jay's going from #8 TBJ prospect in 2021 playing just 37games and suddenly top 10/15 in all of baseball preseason lists 2022. Cartaya for LA is another example. Should I be right, that mutual option gives the Opening day 2024 "opening" to start Quero at C and decline on Sanchez. On Sanchez end, he'll get 9mil to play 23, goes big and can decline for a bigger FA payday. Should neither happen(top 100)/Sanchez mediocre season, you have a decision for 2024 and not locked in with or without a Catcher. Edit add- Could easily see a team like Miami or Pittsburgh offering 2 yrs+option.

I think I'd sign Gary Sanchez to a 1+1 mutual option deal. 1yr 7.5Mil with mutual option of 9Mil. 1.5Mil buyout. So 2/16.5 max. I think Sanchez by looks offers the most floor/ceiling combo of FAs. The more and more I look and read about Jeferson Quero-19 success at A level already, no doubt defensively. I just dont want to hold that back when he's ready. He's going to be in top 100 lists sooner than later. I look at Moreno on Blue Jay's going from #8 TBJ prospect in 2021 playing just 37games and suddenly top 10/15 in all of baseball preseason lists 2022. Cartaya for LA is another example. Should I be right, that mutual option gives the Opening day 2024 "opening" to start Quero at C and decline on Sanchez. On Sanchez end, he'll get 9mil to play 23, goes big and can decline for a bigger FA payday. Should neither happen(top 100)/Sanchez mediocre season, you have a decision for 2024 and not locked in with or without a Catcher. Edit add- Could easily see a team like Miami or Pittsburgh offering 2 yrs+option.

Meh, his RP ERA is was under 4.5. His numbers 2018&19 looks below 2.5. He's not a SP for 23 he's a RP for X amount of days if kept.

Trevor Bauer turned a 1yr contract with Cincy, won the Cy Young and got 100mil basically for next 3 years. Pitchers don't bat anymore. Burnes health risk and future money is near minimal. TJ? He'll still have a 40mil per year truck backed up to him in FA. You're seeing this by the Mets gambling 43mil per on Scherzer and Verlander. The dont have to worry about a batting/running injury. TJ? I'm sure there's insurance that will alleviate some of the cost though not to team payroll. As to the Bonilla idea, let's be serious, money in today's game is just insane compared to the money in the game when Bonilla inked that contract. Theres no reason for Burnes to take that kind of deal.

Thanks on posting bout Yelich vs the shift. I had noticed his numbers were better against the shift last season than when teams didn't use the shift vs him. I'd wonder since being played straight up he would change his batting approach, only to roll over a soft grounder to 2b anyway. Gotta remember Yelich is turning 31. Age decline imminent. His avg velocity went 92+ up to 94 to 91 and 91.5 last year. That launch angle doesn't improve the continued lower exit velocity will wreak havoc on his expected BA. On the other end he did go from 91 to 91.5 and as svuemrules noted had 98th percentile max exit velocity. Maybe he's rounding back to 2018 form. Truthfully he's a 5-7° higher launch angle where he's elite. Any added higher launch angle up to 14 will make his numbers better than last season.