brewcrewdue80

I see a good reason for top pitchers to bypass this closer to FA. Williams has 2 more years control beyond this season so a blown out elbow he could still put together a full year pitching before FA. Wainwright and Mikolas make sense being twilight of their careers to pitch. You know I'll be rooting for Frelick to impress and just take over any questions if he should start in minors or Opening Day. Man I want some baseball game results!

Woodruff is a Super 2 on his 3rd time through Arbitration. Castillo was not. He signed his extension before his 3rd and final trip of Arbitration. Woodruff has better numbers as a pitcher to this point in his career than Castillo did. He's definitely getting a higher per year contract for his future than Castillo took.

.206/.264/.404 was Taylor's split vs LH SPs last season. .217/.270/.410 vs LH SP for his career. He's done better vs. LH relievers. 4th or even 5th OF not a Starter over a full season.

Well with the lists having been posted and I don't believe Mitchell was on 2 of them. Easy choice is Sal Frelick to be CF on Opening day. Mitchell can return to AAA until the team removes Taylor or the OF suffers an injury. But ya'll should know this feeling already. I wanted to find a reason for Taylor to stay as a platoon starter, but he's worse vs LH pitching not just last season but for career.

I believe the focus should be play out your year this season. Go in to next season and make your big moves at the 24 deadline. Use the knowledge which OF prospects you're planning to battle with in the playoffs and trade the prospects or last year players who you don't want to go battle with in the playoffs. That offseason you're giving QOs to Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames. Hopefully you won a World Series. If you're giving those 3 QOs, logically they wouldn't accept. They all do though, there are payroll implications to consider though trading works to address.

The comparison of Hader trading away vs Burnes is a little off imo. There's a difference SP vs RP value. Hader was going to be on his way towards records in ARB for a RP. A QO is the same amount regardless that difference. TJ risks or performance risks(losing FB velo) are more Volatile with a RP who's going to make this huge amount of money for his position. Keeping the SP Burnes whose value will exceed the QO by far more than Hader's is a certainty he's declines, certainty that a team signs him in FA regardless of recent performance or TJ. Which concludes a certainty the Brewers get a comp pick. Hader has another poor season this year and requires TJ, that QO is murky. He may not be offered the QO. He could be offered, and teams or owners wait til after the draft to sign him where there no longer is a QO attached.

Adames, Burnes, Woodruff, CF, Peralta. Whoever starts the year at CF Mitchell or Frelick due to position WAR increases takes 4th.

In the vacuum of the single play of course a HR is a lot more valuable. Off of Taylor's HR log for last season: 1-Ahead 6-3 Solo HR. Final score 10-5(no impact from HR) 2-Ahead 4-0 8th inning 3Run HR Final Score 7-0 No Impact 3-Behind 0-8 Solo HR Final Score 2-8 No Impact 4- Tied 1-1 3Run HR 6th inning. Final Score 4-1 Win Large Impact. 5-Behind 2-4 top 6th 2 Run HR. Final Score 7-6 Win. 2nd largest impact on game. 6-Ahead 2-1 top 8 Solo HR Final Score 3-1 win. positive impact but not in top 5 plays in game 7-Tied 0-0 Bot 5th 2Run HR Final Score 2-0 Large Impact. 8-Down 1-2 Bot 4 3Run HR Final Score 6-4 Large Impact #1 play in game 9-Behind 1-8 Bot 7 Solo HR Final Score 4-9 No Impact 10-Behind 5-6 Bot 6 Solo HR ties game Final score 10-9 5th largest impact on game 11-Ahead 8-4 Top 9 Solo HR Final Score 9-4 No Impact 12-Ahead 2-0 Bot 2 3Run HR Final Score 5-1 2nd largest impact on game 13-Tied 0-0 Bot 5 Solo HR Final Score 3-4(10) not in top 5 plays of game 14&15- 2HR game Won in 10th aided by Taylor's 2nd HR. Largest Impact yet. 16-Behind 0-5 Bot 3 2Run HR Final Score 2-8. No Impact 17-Ahead 3-1 Bot 2 Solo HR Final Score 8-12 No Impact. 16 Games 17HRs. 7 Large Impact HRs. 6 No Impact HRs. 4 Modest impact HRs. Taylor played in 120 games. 103 Started. 7 Games largely impacted by the HRs. And looks like about 2 Games worth via his defense over an average defender. Even adding the 4 modest HR games to make it 13 games overall that doesn't even add up to once a week impact when you are praising those HR he hits. If he played LF or RF you are disappointed at the lack of HRs with the rest of the batting line. Being able to play CF defensively is what is saving him from just a waiver wire pass around. I mentioned the Fantasy baseball to give an idea where I even come up with that removing HR statistic. When I played there were 7 categories for Offense. Finishing up the last 50pct of the draft, I would have already identified the high floor players who I could target with my picks and they would present better chance of winning the categories because they were average or little better in categories I targeted to win in my strategy. BA/OB/Slg Rs HRs, RBIs and SBs. I'd punt SBs. Stay away from 7-9 hitters. Win or 2nd 5 straight years. The floor that Frelick will provide with getting on base via hits or walks compared to Taylor's occasional HRs I just feel will help the Brewers more scoring runs in run scoring situations. It's a team game he's going to allow batters behind chances to drive him in compared to the chances Taylor gives.

Mitchell not being top 100 and ranked behind the Cubs Brennen Davis is absurd. Read his bio. Look at his below 600 OPS over 53 games last season. 23yrs old. Near 30pct K rate. Thos is like ranking Hedbert Perez top 100 because his superb season 2 years ago and ignore the sample of last year's games.

Renfroe 1HR in 16.34 ABs Tellez 1HR in 15.11 ABs Adames 1HR in 18.17 ABs SS position top tier defense Alonso 1HR in 14.93 ABs. Taylor is still a full game of ABs(Adames) and 2 games of ABs before he hits that HR. All of those players walked more frequent than Taylor. It's Statistics and by them Taylor's HR impact is near 1 a week and the others are near 2 HRs a week. Positional impact matters. Tellez was worth .9 BWAR. If he was RH he wouldn't be playing. Milwaukee also doesn't have 4 1b that could step in and produce equal or better numbers than Taylor has. He's only a 4th OF while in his prime now and in 2-3 years he be tossed around to rebuild teams trying to continue losing, if at all.

Wouldn't doubt I messed up. Not an easy task to do all that on the fly. Something I used to do when I played Fantasy Baseball. Helped identify underlying numbers when trying to build a complete team pre-draft. The comparison is that Taylor's value helps the team about 1 game a week when healthy and hurts the team basically 5 games a week when healthy. Frelick's numbers would consistently help the team with the consistency so 4games weekly with 2-3 games not helping weekly. Maybe Taylor adds a game defensively over Frelick to be 2games positive weekly and 4 games not positive. Don't know how Frelick's defense will stand out next to Taylor's. Judge also had 5 times the Walks Taylor did. So he's also on base giving other batters the chance to advance him. That's where Taylor loses with that 529 OPS. He's not only unable to advance runners but he's not even being on base to be advanced by them. The combo Frelick excells in the comparison. To put 529OPS in perspective, Cain had 465 last season and was booted off the team. 1 HR in 22ABs is fair to say 5 games to produce. The other 4games is 529 OPS. Taylor is treading above water. Each year older his defense is going to see a decline. Don't expect him to have a career after his team control.

Take away Taylor's HR PAs and he's producing a .188 BA .257OB .272 Slg 529OPS Frelick less his HRs- .316 BA .389 OB .399 SLG 715 OPS Keep in mind Taylor had 17HRs in 373 ABs 1 in 21.94 Frelick had 11 in 492. 1 in 44.72 So about half the time Comparable would be 8-9 HRs Feeling pretty certain Brewers offense scores quite a lot more runs with Frelick than sticking with Taylor for a few more HRs.

Personally I'd feel much more confident with the bullpen if Houser was destined to only play there for the season.

You're not saying something I don't already know. Though the BTV difference is absurdly shocking. 2years of #1 or 2 SP in all baseball still in Arbitration compared to 6years of #2-5 prospect in all baseball? Outside factors that BTV isn't calculating in Burnes value would include-talks to extend after traded for vs waiting til his Free Agency and getting a return for future Qualifying Offer. This versus losing a draft pick signing Burnes 2 years from now. Nobody knows the state of mind a GM sees their team. As a fan one has to see Baltimore as coming out of a rebuild with numerous promising young talent that will produce playoff teams when healthy. The GM may have other intentions. Maybe influenced with owners preparing to sell. Or the GM believes the team can win now especially adding a Burnes on the team. So far for Henderson his fielding pct at 3b or SS is below .940 in his professional career minors included. Adames hasnt posted 1 season below .940. Urias career in the majors is higher at both SS or 3b. What if a GM sees his future for 2b versus the SS/3B future Henderson is being ranked for? It's highly unlikely but there can always be a chance. Btw they updated Henderson's minors prospect rankings today as Baseball America lists him #1 heading in to 2023. Chourio is #3

The original thought I said was Henderson but that was when it appeared he was a #70s prospect. When checking the current list he's like 5 or something and I backed out to the next further down but with 2 prospects return. If Baltimore is turning down Corbin Burnes for Gunnar Henderson as you suggest, what a mistake when looking for a SP. Henderson appears their 3b but I'm not sure defensively he can stick there. Milwaukee could send Anderson as insurance for the 3b position in any trade involving Henderson. I'm kinda coming from the idea that Mayo's road would be blocked at 3b. As he climbs levels the risky K pct should it climb would wipe out his current trade value. In the trade idea Baltimore is buying and I'd definitely want something bigger than another OF or a not proving value with Povich. I don't see the upside in both those players who are still well over a year away. Johnson just makes sense when thinking SP/RP He could Start early in games in the minors and as his innings climb move to RP and consider shuttling him to the Brewers if he appears ready. Houser is definitely skilled to be a great RP. Somewhere I said he lost velo on FB but didn't on this secondary pitches which I believe made him more hittable. Plus his walk rate inched higher. Depending where his velo sits likely determines his SP or RP role.

Houser's name popped up in a MLBTR article that Baltimore is searching for a Starter addition. Guess a guy in Baltimore had history with Houser when in Houston as the tie to the idea. Any trade ideas if you sent Houser to Baltimore? At first I wondered on Gunnar Henderson but I didn't realize he was like top 5 sitting on lists. BRef listed in the 50s/70s preseason last season. He would be a headliner in a Woodruff or Burnes deal. Looking down MLB list among their top 10 prospects, there are what reads high risk, high reward types in Coby Mayo and Seth Johnson. If Baltimore would part with both for Houser, I think that would be a trade to agree with for Houser. The two are more 2024 potential than seeing games in 2023 so I'd venture the Brewers FO wouldn't make that trade expecting to find someone to play in 2023.

What do you mean? For a solid comparison from over a decade ago. Steven Strasburg had TJ after pitching his last game Aug 21st rookie season. He returned to start 5 games in September the following season. The last game 6IP 1hit 0 runs. 2bbs 10ks. Elite electric stuff 12months after through 13months after. I think TJ required around the Aug 20th dates or later would create playoff eligibility concerns the following season. Before that though, it's very realistic Burnes or any Ace type pitcher to pitch 6-7 innings of shutout baseball for a team in the playoffs. 2 years if you're talking Starting 30+ games in a season. A team "buying" for a player at the deadline is doing so for September and Playoff games. Not to start 30+games the rest of the season.

Yeah lack of education, post BC brain power, unorganized writing, checking the baseball sites for info, writing on a phone, getting disrupted, trying to write as if I was saying this out loud sentences. I shake my head sometimes. I'll read my post after posting and see a spelling error or auto-correct error, fix them, realize I missed something and I'll say edit add or adding so I don't make a second post. A lot of my posts do happen when I can't fall asleep and I'm making them because it's quiet for those sleeping above me.

I hadn't done this in awhile, but I viewed one of ESPNs fantasy baseball rankings. (Burnes #2SP Woody #5SP! respect) Urias was like #21-23 3b. So checking 3b rankings and maybe someone realistic the Brewers could trade for. Arizona committed it appears Josh Royas at 3b finally last year. He's a Super 2 1st year going through Arb. 28. His numbers via statcast improved YoY. He's someone to watch how his numbers are stacking up as trade deadline approaches. 3 years team control beyond 23. Arizona is a seller team vs playoff team. Royals has good bb rate and he reduced his k rate YoY. Goes with any little improvement becoming a full time player at 3b he will post solid batting numbers moving forward. You heard here 1st! Lol(I hope) Forgot to add. Launch angle career is 9.9% was little over 11 last season. It's a good place to be at.

So annoying towards manipulating for 7th season. Turang does not scream super star forthcoming. Quite a decent amount here expect him to fall flat on his rookie season and wanted a move like this to push Urias to 2b and less reliant on how the Brewers season would go playing a questionable rookie. Those doubts come true you know what will happen? He's optioned to minors rolling his service time back Then, rather than holding him down 2weeks. If he's a stud instead his future control can be dealt with via an extension. 2weeks=Super 2. 4th arb-more money expectations. Good version of Turang extension solves your problem. Lacking version? More time in minors(like Arcia) and the price value should remain affordable/doable throughout. AAAA players going to AAAA Stars going to extend. Middle ground like the feel Turang will be, useful and affordable and mindfully on the look out to find better at their position. I get withholding a minute portion of players til Super 2 is passed. But a vast majority its not making a difference.

There's 0 chance Perkins makes the Opening day roster. He has 30 games for career at AAA. At least as the options go currently. Go crazy on a trade moving 2+ OFs then maybe he lands on OD roster. Getting through Spring training healthy is #1 factor who will be on Opening Day OF roster. Which rookie looks dialed in and can Taylor look just as ready. Taylor is a perfect veteran RP with value get from a team expected last in their respective division for that team to trade for. Amir Garrett or Josh Staumont from KC for example.

They picked a young top 100 prospect in Jordan Groshans to play at 3b. They also have a recently better Joey Wendle to be backup. Unlike the Brewers they are committing to allow their young players play versus leaving a reason to keep them blocked. Plus Anderson's past made him a bigger Arb projection than what his recent play is worth. I'm not too excited since this precludes less playing time towards Turang, Urias, Brosseau, and potentially some of the big 4 OF prospects whomever they go with at the ML level. I think the floor helps the depth among the infielders and those incentives must reward to a return to the non-injured version of Anderson prior to 2021 season. I think in the end they are better with Anderson if he's 26 on the 26man roster than previous #26 feelings who they would field. Especially so should Urias have another typical IL stint when opening day arrives.

Can you link the record amounts to this knowledge? I cant find a list of what the records are searching. Its generally felt from memory like a slight over double from previous arb amount. Oh and the instances I imagine are small with teams settling or extending before reaching a penultimate last arb settlement. When you add the quality of player Burnes is. I seen Ohtani got over 30mil for this season arb 3. Duo player but new record.

A wealthy team that has future plans towards signing Burnes in FA is still going to offer a decent trade haul just to begin talks with him. Also TJ is a mix 11-13mos away from baseball. If any chance he's capable to pitch Playoff games in 2024 that's what teams are trading for in the first place. We trade with SF for Rosenthal because the smallest chance he could pitch come playoff time. If Burnes has TJ say in June. In next offseason they come to agreement on salary. They can trade him and that team is responsible for the salary. Even before an agreement as Renfroe is headed to Arbitration. The biggest loss in regards to TJ is that it is needed once September games start. Now teams would wait to deadline to see how he's doing if he'd have a chance at Playoff games. If not then they will just wait it out. Crew offers QO he declines we come away with a draft pick. There's 0 chance Burnes is non tendered. Same for Woodruff. Lauer and Houser though aren't QO quality at the moment so they probably would be considered non-tender if they were to miss 2024 due to TJ.

Easy and Nate is on to something. Get him signed for the 2 seasons. Say 14 this year and 18-19 next season. What they gain is higher trade value next offseason trading a 40M pitcher due 18-19M instead of who knows 22-24M. Saving 4mil for a luxury tax team like the Mets is what saving 8mil now? Or a team up against the luxury tax it creates maybe the room they need to take on Burnes' salary in 2024.