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brewcrewdue80

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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80

  1. brewcrewdue80
    Looks like a trio of reasons to take a stab acquiring Owen. 1. WI homegrown. 2. Will have option ability to shuttle if/when needed. 3. Age&growth. Did bat over .300 in his brief AAA experience in '21. His callup was mediocre batting line. That batting line improved in 2022 age 26. He's a 2020 casualty to lost in game experience and projection. Does he improve on what he did in 2022? Within premium age 26-29. Spring Training will be great for fans from WI and Owen being a draw for them For Mario-hope he finds a new home. GL to him, I wish he'd have had a bigger impact playing for the Brewers. Was apromising prospect to follow.
  2. brewcrewdue80
    From 35.1 Mil with Twins he took a 26.9 Mil AAV for 13 years. Kinda shortchanged yourself there didn't ya?. 11yrs about 280 about 25.5 Mil a year is about what we opted out 2yrs early to sign for? 2 years and he's probably signing for 10years 310-320 to end his career. So about 40mil-50mil when his career ends he discounted.
  3. brewcrewdue80
    You know how 30% or higher k rate for batters are frowned upon? It carries an expected lower BA. Meaning less times getting on base. Well for our pitchers less men getting on base mean less runners to steal a base. Brewers pitching had a .302 OB. With a 3.1 pct HR pct. So about .290 OB? Pct.. This vs the Cardinals who has a .314OB but 2.4pct HR rate. About 306 OB. About 95 less baserunners throughout an entire season.
  4. brewcrewdue80
    Looks like the one comment negatively on Contreras defense is he had a 14% caught stealing last season. I'm thinking the A's looked at Ruiz taking advantage on SBs and the Braves looked at Contreras being taken advantage of SBs with the larger bases. That said, Milw is filled with high k pitchers. Reduces the opportunities for stolen bases. William is also young and may improve his technique and pop times to be more successful or at least consistent vs worsening. In the end, just think with Quero's future, that the Brewers are trotting out great catchers for the next 7? Maybe + seasons. That's a long time to get the next future Catcher in the system.
  5. brewcrewdue80
    FWIW Drury had a +4.1 expected HRs last season and Turner -1.4 Milw park expected HRs Drury dropped to 25 while Turner increased to 20. 20 of Drury's 28HRs came at HR favorables Cincy, Col, and Ari majority. And yet he would have had 3 taken away at AmFam vs the 7 gained by Turner. Consider that and the fact Turner now has 9 straight seasons of 116 or higher OPS+ 8 of 9 with .350 OB or higher. Drury Hovers around .300-310. For 1-3M more a season Turner has much more a sure thing than Drury brings. I'd feel different if say Turner commanded 5M or more than Drury. Or asking for 3years guaranteed. Turner is just better and the age would be the only reason he could reasonably sign with Milw(unlike 2 years ago when we discussed Turner for FA signing)
  6. brewcrewdue80
    Winker, Contreras, the next man up is Justin Turner. Compared him on statcast to Brandon Drury, and Turner's worst xBA is better than Drury's best xBA. Drury's happened his rookie season. Turner's happened last season. Turner is also a tick better at 3b defensively while being better offensively. Looks like projected 9-10Mil for Turner vs in the 7s for Drury. Urias and Turang would make Drury's versatility less useful. Sign him to a 2year deal with a 3rd yr option(to stash some buyout to even out the 2 years you do have him signed for) 2/24 with a 12mil option(4mil buyout) He'd make 10mil each the next two seasons. Potential to make 3/32 overall. Turner can DH games you're not using a Yelich or Winker for(say vs a LH Starter) and obvious 3b Starts. Urias has the 3b/2b flex Turang becomes straight Utility which does have OF game experiences in the minors. I'm not sure how Hiura remains on the team after doing this signing. Send him to Pittsburgh for any kind of Arm that has any potential.
  7. brewcrewdue80
    Was torn on the trade when it happened, because you knew Rasmussen was high ceiling. The team definitely needed a pick me up from SS and got it, which is exactly what me/you would hope for. Both sides winning on the trade. The Rays will very likely win in the end value because they flip their talents consistently to stock talents and compete yearly. If Feyereisen wasn't struggling with injuries, Tampa would have this locked down for win trade. While it's a loss for Milw in the end, it isn't a bad loss as we did find production from SS position.
  8. brewcrewdue80
    That one, I was waiting for Milwaukee to send cash to Oakland as the reason to offset Contreras value to Ruiz and thinking that would be why Oak sent back a Meh RP. But it didn't happen. Pina is pretty good defensively, has been top 10 pop times to 2b 2018-2021 seasons(not enough playing time in 2022)
  9. brewcrewdue80
    Trade Contreras when Quero is ready. Or split time at Catcher. Caratini is a FA after this season.
  10. brewcrewdue80
    Gotta be something along the lines of they wanted to send Contreras and Oakland didn't want a catcher but an OF. Brewers had the OFs and needed the Catcher. Maybe Oakland also wanted a RH CF/Utility vs one of our LH batting OFs.
  11. brewcrewdue80
    Seeing rumors that As trading Murphy to Braves Brewers maybe getting Contreras? 3 team trade
  12. brewcrewdue80
    While there will be benefits, the Brewers defense can't shift now either. I don't know their stats the last 2 seasons with playing shifts. Now the big 3 are high k rate pitchers, Ashby/Lauer how will this affect them? Houser is such a groundball inducing pitcher, I wonder if this hurts or helps him, considering the defense playing standard would cover more 1b-3b of the diamond. You article got in to the LH batters, but I put something on Adames and his shift numbers being drastic. Looking it up now. About 25pct or 151 PAs they list and Adames had a .248 vs .347 wOBA. .1 is easy to determine a +15 times he should reach on base. I also mentioned with regards to Tellez his BABIP could be driven by his practically slowest speed running. Tellez only jad a .02 difference between shifted and not shifted. 460PAs is about 9 more times he should been on base. Adames had a .278 BABIP while career sits .325. MLB avg shown on BRef at .294. It's one reason to hold on to him this season vs trade as Adames should see an improved BA/OB. The HRs and slg you can't determine +or- with shifting or not.
  13. brewcrewdue80
    I know the meetings are over just dont want to start a thread. Kodak Senga was signed by Mets the other day. 5/75 but with luxury tax it is 90pct more this year. And I think 110 or 120 pct more the following year as they're nearing a 400Mil payroll. If they don't reset their tax amount this is about 5/160. Giants signed Sean Manea recently today.
  14. brewcrewdue80
    Tellez would see a small rise in BA which increases OB&slg without the shift. He wasn't too bad facing it compared to straight up but he faced the shift 70+pct of time. Statcast had him for just over 800OPS expected and he is just over 800 expected for his career. His problem is he was listed at 1(worst) for speed last year. That obviously contributes to why the low BA vs expected. Tellez has a 20% k rate, far better than Carter's 33pct career rate. Last, 1b has been a black hole around baseball. You would think it'd be loaded but only 9 had above 800. 4 above 850 2 above 900. Tellez was 15th. Stats for who qualified. Reduce it to min 400PAs Josh Naylor jumps just ahead of Tellez for 15th and Tellez is 16th. It's fairly clear if I was working for Milw's analytics, Rowdy would see his upcoming contract have a bonus if he kept his weight below 230 X amount of days and 240 X amount of days. That BABIP might just improve above bottom 3Worst.
  15. brewcrewdue80
    His offensive numbers aren't even that impressive unless you account it at the catcher position. 745OPs as a corner OF is nothing to dream on. Closer to non-tender than extend.with his Super 2 status. BTV checking right now shows Varsho only at C. I wouldnt trade 2years of Woodruff + for 4 Super 2 years of Varsho. But that's what they believe is needed. Fwiw Varsho is 0-6 with 3ks vs Woodruff.
  16. brewcrewdue80
    The idea is more in line that Sanchez is RH bat and in 2021 OPS over .900 vs Starters. 800+ vs LHs overall. Sat just over 700OPS vs LH starters in 22. Also Narvaez hit a total 17HRs the 3 seasons in Milw. Sanchez with 49 his last three. I think when looking at the other mediocre C FAs Sanchez tops them on HR ability. Statcast also has Sanchez top 10 Pop times to 2b and 3b every year in his career. That may help defend the new base size, 29% career caught stealing. Looks about .1 seconds better than Narvaez aside from 2022 3b pop times where Narvaez had a career best only .01 from Sanchez. It's really tough on deciding the route you want to take. The FA route costs just money but you are getting -1 to 1WAR players. Trading will cost you at least Mitchell grade and more prospects. While you improve at Catcher, the lost Mitchell + makes it feel lateral and possibly worse over the next 2seasons. You can just wait on Quero. I believe any trade for 1 of Toronto's Catchers will cost us 1 of the team's current SPs with the Mitchell grade prospect. Catchers are that 70-125 games max behind the plate, is that approx 800 OPS really important in your lineup?
  17. brewcrewdue80
    I think I'd sign Gary Sanchez to a 1+1 mutual option deal. 1yr 7.5Mil with mutual option of 9Mil. 1.5Mil buyout. So 2/16.5 max. I think Sanchez by looks offers the most floor/ceiling combo of FAs. The more and more I look and read about Jeferson Quero-19 success at A level already, no doubt defensively. I just dont want to hold that back when he's ready. He's going to be in top 100 lists sooner than later. I look at Moreno on Blue Jay's going from #8 TBJ prospect in 2021 playing just 37games and suddenly top 10/15 in all of baseball preseason lists 2022. Cartaya for LA is another example. Should I be right, that mutual option gives the Opening day 2024 "opening" to start Quero at C and decline on Sanchez. On Sanchez end, he'll get 9mil to play 23, goes big and can decline for a bigger FA payday. Should neither happen(top 100)/Sanchez mediocre season, you have a decision for 2024 and not locked in with or without a Catcher. Edit add- Could easily see a team like Miami or Pittsburgh offering 2 yrs+option.
  18. brewcrewdue80
    I think I'd sign Gary Sanchez to a 1+1 mutual option deal. 1yr 7.5Mil with mutual option of 9Mil. 1.5Mil buyout. So 2/16.5 max. I think Sanchez by looks offers the most floor/ceiling combo of FAs. The more and more I look and read about Jeferson Quero-19 success at A level already, no doubt defensively. I just dont want to hold that back when he's ready. He's going to be in top 100 lists sooner than later. I look at Moreno on Blue Jay's going from #8 TBJ prospect in 2021 playing just 37games and suddenly top 10/15 in all of baseball preseason lists 2022. Cartaya for LA is another example. Should I be right, that mutual option gives the Opening day 2024 "opening" to start Quero at C and decline on Sanchez. On Sanchez end, he'll get 9mil to play 23, goes big and can decline for a bigger FA payday. Should neither happen(top 100)/Sanchez mediocre season, you have a decision for 2024 and not locked in with or without a Catcher. Edit add- Could easily see a team like Miami or Pittsburgh offering 2 yrs+option.
  19. brewcrewdue80
    Lol at some reactions. Gus is more likely returned to LA before Opening day than he is making it to. You'll get to see him in Spring Training games. What his results are out of the bullpen there, will go in to determining which outcome.
  20. brewcrewdue80
    Um Bogaerts has nearly a 130 OPS+ below 125ks 5 years running. Adames was at 112 last season. And 3 straight full season(19/21/22)above 150ks. Back it down to 7yrs and 110mil. Looks like Adames is projected around 21mil the next 2 seasons. 5yrs-90 mil nearly 20mil per. Considering Bogaerts with a better/longer track record didn't get 27mil avg while a FA, kinda hard to justify asking much higher. Bogaerts is in another level Adames hasn't touched. Edit add-Looking at Dansby Swanson, and those numbers with defense are quite similar to Adames. So I think Swanson's deal will range what Adames is looking at.(imagine 1.5-2mil avg below that AAV past next 2 years)
  21. brewcrewdue80
    Just seen a writeup the A's asked for Lars nootbar, #3 in ROY and GG winner Brendan Donavan, and StL's #1 pitching prospect/4overall Gordon Graceffo. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/mlb/athletics/.amp/news/the-as-were-asking-st-louis-for-a-haul-for-sean-murphy Which led to Cards signing Contreras instead. They'll be asking for Ashby, 1 of Mitchell or Frelick, and Wiemer or Quero. Moving on, D'Arnaud from Braves?
  22. brewcrewdue80
    Meh, his RP ERA is was under 4.5. His numbers 2018&19 looks below 2.5. He's not a SP for 23 he's a RP for X amount of days if kept.
  23. brewcrewdue80
    Ah nice catch. He must have just graduated off prospect lists and BRef listed him as DH for A's last year so I missed he was a Catching option. I wouldnt change my top 3 offer. Quero is a sure thing defensively at Catcher. 1b/DH are needs too Oakland could slide Shea and Tyler in to once Quero was full time ready.
  24. brewcrewdue80
    In another thread I just commented on I realized including Jeferson Quero in a Sean Murphy trade would make sense. Original poster idea was Frelick, Turang, Gasser. Lets swap Turang with Quero and that is a grouping I'd agree with. A's have Tyler Soderstrom who has C/1b atop their prospects. Sounds like his bat is ready but his Catcher skills may need time. I don't see a good 1b holding down the position, so Quero gives them true depth at C in 2years. Gasser can start pitching for them probably after Super 2 passes, and Frelick is an instant starter for them.
  25. brewcrewdue80
    I'd think Turang would be off limits after trading Wong. And with seeing Jace and now Diaz signed by Oakland taking away best fits for infield versatile depth. That's pretty big price. 3 of the teams top 11 prospects? You're including #2 and 4, 11 seems overpay when all 3 are AAA experience and at or near ML call up. That immediately hurts some depth at 3 prime positions(CF,SS,SP] Murphy does immediately fill a need, just why give up all that top level talent? Don't you have a Rk/A level to be the 3rd piece? Quero is also coming projected 2024. He'd actually make sense over Turang, while including Gasser. Oh edit add, just realized with my top comment how Turang wouldn't really be needed in the trade after the A's signing Jace/Diaz.
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