brewcrewdue80

Pretty sure that was your take on paying what the players want in arb.

I guess I could have replied this practically word for word. Nice cover up though.

Your idea ends baseball in 4 seasons? You basically opened the door for Gasser to request 30mil come time for his 1st time in to Arbitration. With the idea giving what the player wants every Arbitration figure the players put down no matter their talent ought to be asking millions on top of millions more. The only defense the owners would have is not tendering to them. Immediately making Chourio or Frelick a FA after 3 seasons. Large markets now field 26man roster all-stars and the Brewers and 15+teams now really are AAA producers for the markets that can run hundreds of millions in payroll. Every new increase a player receives over what a similar history player earned increases the following seasons class of similar players and what they earn. You are talking about pricing small markets quicker with the team controlled players since unable to afford them.

The part on Bieber. Did Burnes know what Bieber increase was? The story broke the same day figures needed to be submitted at 430pm that day. If he knew it was last minute funding out. It is is interesting going to that article and the MLBTR guy had predicted 10.7M vs what Bieber settled at. Interesting that the number was just about exact what Burnes signed for. I wonder where the price point in the Arbitrators minds were where they'd have sided with Burnes. That imo needs to be shared. Say it was 10.7M. 10.65M. 10.55M. Just alert and make aware to the Players and clubs both what the line would be. Then a player doesn't submit too high an ask, and a club submits something closer to that line.

I don't really think there is a battle. I think it's cut and dry what the 5 SPs will be at full health. Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, and Miley. Lauer at 6 and Houser at 7 with both being bullpen bodies. Still honestly feel a trade off on one of Miley, Lauer, or Houser occurs around Opening day as teams deal with their own SP fallout on not ready to field even 5 SPs. Alexander may just remain the backup option as the season progresses and we don't have 5 SPs to throw on their days.

I would think by next year meant the 23/24 offseason. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/2023-24-mlb-free-agents.html Odd they didn't have this on their main page drop down list, but here's the early look at FAs this next offseason. There's at least 34 SPs who will become FAs this upcoming offseason. At least a dozen more who have options or opt outs that could add to that number.

He's not listed as on it and there are 40 that are. Maybe it was closer to since Im not on the 40man roster but wasn't clearly saying the word not. Or sorta that want you want something to be true and don't say the word that makes it not true. I can see they put Alexander on the 60day IL probably to clear space for Wilson. Maybe they informed him he was so close to being on the 40man that he should treat everything moving forward as if he actually were.

Looks like for Urias he changed his approach to hit more HRs which got him his debut. With the shift ban, the launch angle craze may dwindle a little not focusing on hitting it over well placed fielders to even over the wall and being able to send solid contact through the holes that wasn't there the previous seasons. All the guys I listed except Frelick are 23-26 k pct. I'll wait til they are through their age 27 season before believing they can't improve their contact skills.

Since Frelick is playing WBC, I think his timeline has the cutoff 2 weeks in to the season to gain the year control making him a Super 2 that the team will look to buy out with extension sooner than later. Making it 2 weeks without an injury will be tough to expect. The #1 thing that hurts him is not being on the 40man roster. If there's an injury to an OF during Spring Training I expect him to start Opening day.

Woodruff is a 32GS season away from being a top 3 in CY that season and potentially winning if the contenders like Burnes doesn't reach 31 GS.

1000pct. I don't think a team is putting a package of prospects together worth trading Burnes for around the deadline. He's either the #1 SP talent right now and if not top 3. A team would need to headline 2 top 15 prospects before I'd even begin to listen. That means with Chourio being top 10 there can only be a max of 7 teams that could even start with a phone call and I'm pretty sure there aren't even 3 teams with top 2 top 15s. Gunnar Henderson Adley Rutchman for Burnes and Contreras for example with some added parts.

It'll be interesting to see where the Brewers rank over the next 3 years when Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, and Wiemer take on full time rolls. Contreras and Turang as well. The k pct should lower, BA higher so do we go back above 15th or stay lower 6.

You can't sell me on this one. This doesn't sound like Park Factors at all. Determined by looking at each pitcher and batter, controlled by handedness and comparing the frequency of that metric in a selected park to the performance of the players in those other parks. So it's a guess. An assumption. I mean the sample size to create such a number and then implement players in a different ballpark and guess the results at that ball park. You would be putting pitchers and players in ballparks where they didn't even play in, in to that equation. Brewer hitters strike out a ton as do opposing hitters vs Brewer Batters. So either that is a huge factor in this ranking, or the sample size they are taking from Miller Park numbers is smaller than typical ballparks. 2014: Brewer pitchers at home 21.713 k pct Batters at home 18.574 k pct 2022:Brewer pitchers at home 26.937 k pct Batters at home 24.538 k pct. So if striking out goes in to this park factor well that's quite the change right there between 2014 and 2022. Or like I said reduces the amount balls put in play making a smaller sample determining this park factor on singles. Brewer bats overall hit .235 at home in 22 .258 at home in 2014 Pitchers against .218 at home in 22 against .242 at home in 2014. You can see how projections works with K pct affecting Batting averages.

This is a weird stat without changing the field dimensions or other teams changing field dimension or new ball parks. We have the dome ability to block bad weather. So if not the addition of the 3 factors I mentioned above, how do you adjust singles ball park factors over the years? Does this number come as a reflection to the Pitching on the mound for both teams? The hitters and the combined k rate?

So the Ballys nearing bankruptcy isn't going to be mentioned? Think what I recently read is they've missed a 192Mil payment and bankruptcy would add on to missing payments. I don't know what the Brewers cut is on that deal year to year but that's a solid reason to withhold overextending your expenses til there's clarity. Also just had 11 players go through Arbitration. You also see the Chourio hype, the other 3 OFs, you have to believe they are setting aside money to buy out their team control. Maybe it's Devin Williams who gets the next large amount extension at a RP price they could handle. Keep the faith. All it takes is one extension to put away this thinking.

I do agree. but that's not what's going to sell. Folks want to be able to say their team in #1. I imagine the top 3 have the one or more of the top 5 prospects ranked overall within their systems. But a total of 3 overall in top 100. (sorta Brewers without the top 5) Meanwhile a team may have 7 or 8 players in the top 100 but none of them or just `1 above 40. Angels have had the #1 player in baseball over the last decade in Mike Trout and have just 1 playoff appearance to show for it. Houston who won 2 WS in the same time doesn't appear to have had 2 top 10 prospects on their WS at the time, but multiple top 100s when winning the WS alone with that single top 10 prospect.(Correa then Tucker) Appears Altuve never even got to be ranked before he began his impressive ML career to date. I'd see a 1-3 single rankings. Then put your tiers down from there. however you deemed Next top 3, top, mid, lower, developing/needs long term work. Maybe go 1, 2 ,3, next top 3, next top 6, developing next 12, bottom 6. Simply off that some teams have pitching prospects no batting, some have batting but no pitching. I'd consider knocking those teams from a top 6 no matter how great their top 3 are, because you need a blend or a bankroll to fill out your blend as a side not why they are top 6. Houston has the hitters, bought their pitching.

You know checking the splits for 1st half to second half with the Brewers other SPs. Burnes ERA is 4th. Woodruff essentially reversed Burnes 1st half with his 2nd half. Peralta was 2nd. Nuts that his best month August for ERA was also the month he gave up 4HRs vs 1 the other months. Even Lauer squeaked in below Burnes ERA with the most consistent season being essentially 3.6ERA monthly. So the statement isn't wrong. But truthfully it was Peralta and Woodruff missing games that impacted the playoffs missed and you know the Hader trade. (Which will be great if team goes deep in playoffs this year on account of Contreras making the trade a win) Burnes did have his higher ERA come with a much larger IP than the rest. Saves the bullpen. But that also gives a larger sample size being near 4ERA. Both sides lost here but as some mentioned of 11 Arb players, Burnes was the only one who went to it. I still dislike McCalvy terming a question with bad blood to lead Burnes to answer disgust towards what transpired at the meeting. Guess McCalvy needed some new likes and follows. That or the guy is clueless on the timing to instigate bad blood. Literally pitchers and catchers just reported. The teams newest catcher long term walks in to this. Other Arb decisions were forthcoming that feels a good number of teams won when previous it was more players won. The timing is just like hey Corbin you're the loser everyone around you settled/extended or won. I'd have waited for Burnes to lead with the opinion there's tension between the two and the way Arb went down in front of him. Time heals wounds a couple days to sit on what occurred and see these other results his words may have just been not a story its a part of the process. I tried to set a new high bar and they didn't go that way. No bad blood.

Your answer. Some other post mentioned it was 2 yrs with a single option year.

60day IL stint opens a 40man spot when done. How many other 60day IL guys will Milw have to start the season?

Addressed earlier. Players filed higher to raise the midway point.

Do you have a link where they bad-mouthed him this way? I keep seeing badmouthed here and I'd like this posted. Burnes in that interview said there were some things said about him that didn't need to be said. But if someone is presenting their case and hope to win, yes it just may need to be said. So where's this blame the Brewers outright didn't make the playoffs because of him?

Adam McCalvy really forcing the issue by narrating his question with essentially there needs to be bad blood over this right Corbin? Then posts the added Brewers offered a 2year deal that Corbin says was pretty poor. Based on the 10.1M and what goes to I guess 18M next season if that? What's a pretty poor offer? 2/26M or lower? What's Milwaukee supposed to do just give him more money than what Arb is going to stick to him next season? 2/28Mil? They pay him 2/30 and he's overpaid vs what Arb is going to reward him. I guess where he could call out the Brewers would be that they couldn't work out a number in between for this season. Like 10.35-10.4M. If Burnes held out for the Arb and didn't take that offer then it's on him and his agent for being greedy and affecting the future players' values.

QO was 19.65M this year so the increase is likely just past 20mil. Putting 20+ vs just 20-20.5mil is more appropriate. That's if it reaches 20Mil. As to Winker having it offered to him. Man Fangraphs has his #1 season worth just 23M and the rest for his career below 12M value. Surprisingly he played the most games last season in a year for his career. I don't know if that platoon stuff, or him being a bad Fielder that reduced his games played in a year. He's strictly a DH bat by the numbers and it's not one to date that puts QO tag next to it. Pretty much if the Brewers gave him a QO they want him on a 1yr 20mil deal for 2024. Winker would be foolish to decline and test FA. His history shows he's not a 162 game availability, but a guy you would want to sign for the games after the 2024 draft. He has to put together a special year just to even get to this conversation. I'd expect it is more likely he is traded than finishes the year with Milwaukee. Just because the Ofs will push Yelich playing time away from the OF and to DH role occupied by Winker. It needs to be understood the talents on Frelick, Chourio, and Wiemer pushing in to the ML roster. They talked about Chourio prospect whispers being comparable to when Mike Trout was a prospect. There's no way barring injury that level is kept in the minors through all of 2023. The other 3 already put time in AAA, while you can shuttle the best performing or fit on roster, they'll eventually be here to stay. They don't play IF positions(though Chourio did have 2b time played but read the talent needs to fit elsewhere on diamond)

Every season you would extend Lauer is lighting money on fire. You're kidding yourself by saying he would be an Ace on a few teams and otherwise is a 2. Lauer seasonal FIPs make him a #3. His 3rd time through the order last year was near a 900OPS. Gives up too many HRs. Huge red flags as he sits 93MPH with FB. Velocity always declines with age. What's a 91MPH FB Lauer look like with his HR issues? How about as it closes in to 90? Just not the background giving confidence to extend in Milwaukee. Put him in a deep hard to hit HR ballpark and his success can extend longer. It's too bad KC has no push to be good because that park must be the top pitchers ballpark on HR preventing.

Definitely going to be hard for the players who are playing in the WBC to be Spring Training MVPs. They'll have what,? maybe 10 games to do it. We'll get a good look at Turang since Adames, Toro, and Urias are participating. Hiura seems like at 1b/2b vs Spring Training pitching would be a positional MVP favorite with the launch pads in AZ. Could be a fun battle with Mitchell, Yelich, and Wiemer as the two prospects are the mix of game Yelich has produced at the ML both ways. As to the so friggin' early season projections? Let's make it through Spring Training healthy and see what last move they make prior to Opening day. You have to believe someone among the OFs are traded. Maybe from SP.