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Arozarena first player to steal home in the postseason since Jackie Robinson, and first ever to homer & steal home in the same postseason game. Only player with more than Randy's 11 HR over a span of 19 postseason games is Babe Ruth.

Now that the regular season is over & the numbers are in the books, just wanted to take a moment to give some love to thee best pitching staff in franchise history. Full season franchise records set in ERA- (82, previous best 87 in 1988), FIP- (87, previous best 90 in 2011), K%+ (116, previous best 112 in 1992), HR9+ (86, previous best 89 in 1987), runs allowed WAR (27.1, previous best 25.1 in 1992), FIP WAR (23.5, previous best 19.9 in 1987) & Win Probability Added (+15.38, previous best +8.19 in 1988 THAT IS INSANE). It all starts with, well, like duh, the starters. There were 127 starters with at least 90 IP this year. By ERA- the Brewers had Burnes (57, 3rd), Woodruff (60, 6th), Peralta (67, 12th), Lauer (72, 15th), Houser (78, 33rd) & Anderson (99, 76th). Moving on to the bullpen there were 255 relievers with at least 30 IP this year. By ERA- the Brewers had Hader (29, 4th), Strickland (41, 8th), Williams (59, 37th), Cousins (64, 49th), Suter (66, 56th) and Box (79, 94th). Put it all together by runs allowed WAR & the staff has star power at the top with Woodruff (6.4), Burnes (6.3), Peralta (4.6) & Hader (3.4), then a couple solid starters in Houser/Lauer (2.9 each), then impressive depth seven through twelve with Williams (1.6), Box (1.1), Strickland (1.0), Anderson (0.9) and Cousins/Suter (0.7 each). Ashby's couple blow up outings in his 20 IP kind of skew his numbers, but he might have Top 5 stuff on the staff as an added bonus. Gotta end it with a little love for the defense, who came in 3rd by UZR (+31.1) & 6th by DRS (+57), with the catchers registering the second best framing mark (+12.4) in MLB.

Brewers offense finished the season 12th in runs scored & 19th in position player wRC+. Combine that with the 7th best base running & thee best defense (by UZR + framing, only 6th in DRS) and the position players finished 10th in WAR. While short on star power, the position player group offered pretty remarkable depth with eleven players registering at least 0.9 WAR... Adames (135 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR) Wong (109 wRC+ | 2.9 WAR) Avisail (115 wRC+ | 2.9 WAR) Omar (99 wRC+ | 2.8 WAR) Urias (111 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR) Lorenzo (97 wRC+ | 1.8 WAR) Yelich (101 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR) Manny (95 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR) Tyrone (106 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR) Escobar (114 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR) Jace (97 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR) With Tyrone, Jace & Manny from above, plus Rowdy & VogelBOMB on the bench the Brewers should be pretty well positioned to not give away too many PAs this postseason.

If the Rays aren't amazing, who is? Since 2008 they've won the 4th most games (1,181) in baseball playing in the toughest division (NYY is 2nd with 1,238 & BOS is 5th with 1,178 wins) while having a rock bottom payroll, a front office/management structure so strong that LAD & CHC had to poach their GM/Manager to win their Worlds Serieses, and a player development system that churns out so much talent they end up having to trade away legit guys because there are only so many MLB spots.

Missed on the games (only 78), but did pretty good on the batting line (97 wRC+), base running (+4 BRef / +1.8 FG) and defense (+6 DRS / +4.1 UZR) shaking out to 1.8 fWAR / 2.2 bWAR. Over the first four years of his contract Lorenzo has posted 9.2 fWAR / 12.0 bWAR for a little over 46 million dollars, which shakes to something like 4-5 million per WAR so far. Hopefully he's got a little October magic left in those old bones.

Yeah, just about any five game playoff series is essentially a coin flip (with a little wiggle room one way or another). Besides the late season swoon & Williams injury, I think this years team playing worse at home (45-36, +4 runs) vs on the road (50-31, +111 runs) might be tempering expectations a little bit too. The Brewers clearly have better pitching, but the Braves probably have the edge on offense even without Acuña. Brewers lineup will mostly be some combination of Adames (135 wRC+), Avisail (115 wRC+), Escobar (114 wRC+), Urias (111 wRC+), Wong (109 wRC+), Yelich (101 wRC+), Omar (99 wRC+) & Lorenzo (97 wRC+). Braves lineup will mostly be some combination of Freeman (135 wRC+), Riley (135 wRC+), Rosario (133 wRC+), Soler (132 wRC+), Albies (107 wRC+), Duvall (106 wRC+), Dansby (98 wRC+) & d'Arnaud (78 wRC+). While the computers might see it as a pretty even match, and Brewers fans might be feeling pretty uncertain after watching a couple ugly weeks of baseball, the FanGraphs Staff Predictions went 26-2 for the Brewers. Not sure if that is a good or bad omen. Will letchoo know next week.

Since the start of the 2019 season Lynn & Morton are 4th & 5th in FIP based WAR. By runs allowed based WAR they are 3rd & 10th. I would say they are both legitimate #1 quality starters, though not quite "ace" level.

Pitching supposedly wins in the playoffs & the White Sox surrendered the fewest runs in the AL this year. On the flip side, the Astros scored the most runs in the AL this year. Somebody's gotta lose.

Saw this tweet from Kyle Lobner, looks like destiny could be on the Brewers side after all... From 1996-2019 there were 208 playoff teams. Exactly two of them went 4-10 or worse in their last 14 regular season games: 2000 Yankees (won World Series) 2006 Cardinals (won World Series)

Yeah, the best was that one year the Heat were in the Finals and a bunch of fans started leaving early when they were losing late & then tried to get back in the stadium after the Heat came back to tie the game & send it to overtime.

Pretty sure the largest gap between WC1 & WC2 in the two Wild Card era was six wins prior to this year, so generally the teams have been more evenly matched.

Ideally the schedule/divisions (& revenue & payrolls) would be balanced somehow, but short of that, another option would be to maybe leave the last week open for flexible scheduling. Have a bunch of team grouped together fighting for division &/or wild card spots? They play each other. Could even do the same thing on the other end of the spectrum. Have the two worst teams play a series & the winner gets the better pick in the next year's draft.

Ugh. Another year picking in the late 20s. If this team doesn't get its act together & start losing some games pronto we might not have another top five pick for some time.

Optimism thread, dude. Literally every other thread is full of like-minded concerns. Please kindly leave your "concerns" at the door in this one. bingo 100%

If it provides any solace, September results have minimal correlation with October results... https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/09/27/cardinals-does-momentum-impact-playoffs-the-opener The same Brewers front office that made all the moves culminating in this team winning the 4th most games in MLB this year believes this is the best approach, because that's what the numbers support. If the numbers supported September results having a strong correlation with October results, they would probably take a different approach.

LAD has been in the Wild Card spot for the majority of the season & are in the Wild Card spot at the start of play today. Those odds are already operating under the assumption they will be in the Wild Card game. I'd imagine if the Dodgers win/Giants lose today, then the Dodgers beat the Giants to win the West in Game 163 on Monday that the Dodgers will become even bigger favorites than they already are while the Giants odds will drop below ours & closer to ATL/STL.

Vegas Insider has the Brewers between +225 to +245. Looks like the only team with longer odds today are the Orioles at +275 to +300 vs Toronto. Vegas Insider NL Pennant Odds... LAD +165 | SFG +300 | MIL +300 | ATL +600 | STL +1000

Because the Padres are throwing Reiss Knehr against Logan Webb today so it probably won't matter anyway? Because it doesn't have any effect on the Brewers series vs the Braves beginning Friday?

Thanks for the DSL wrap, damuelle. Really intriguing results from the Nicaraguan mound duo of Cruz & Vallecillo, hopefully they'll make it over to Arizona for a better look next summer. Can't help but think of the Astros, who have gotten pretty good seasons from Luis Garcia (155 IP | 130 ERA+), Framber Valdez (134 IP | 137 ERA+), Jose Urquidy (101 IP | 121 ERA+) and Cristian Javier (101 IP | 121 ERA+) this year. None of them were big bonus guys & Urquidy was the only one to ever crack a Top 100 (#82 pre-2020 @ BPro), so a pretty big testament to Houston's pitcher identification & development program. Stearns & company clearly know a thing or two about pitcher identification & development too, so it should be interesting to see if they can work some Houston-esque magic on the international side in the coming years.

With one day (& maybe a couple two tree tiebreakers) left, the Division Standings for 2021 are pretty settled... ALE 424 wins (+212 runs) NLW 415 wins (+222 runs) ALW 406 wins (-55 runs) NLC 398 wins (-176 runs) ALC 394 wins (-122 runs) NLE 377 wins (-81 runs)

Hopefully its Acuna's ACL.

Yup. Steelers O is currently 28th in PPG at 16.7. But, Packers D is currently 24th in PPG at 27.7. Classic battle of the resistible force versus the movable object.

Welcome to the board, TheAnalytics. I believe BREF also adds adjustments based on quality of opponent & team defense, which is how they come up with stuff like Wade Miley & Tyler Mahle having the same 5.7 WAR as Burnes, whereas FanGraphs RA9 WAR has Corbin at 6.5 with Miley/Mahle at 4.4.

Full season results have a much higher correlation with October results than do September results. The Brewers struggling in their last 7 games vs STL (with an accidental Division clinching sweep of the Mets in the middle & a 12-5 stretch before that starting with a sweep of SF on the road) likely has minimal predictive value... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-impressive-winning-streak-doesnt-guarantee-october-success/

The Brewers 95-64 season record, or their 74-41 record since the Adames trade, or their 42-25 record since the All Star break are all much better predictors of future results than their 1-6 record in their last 7 games vs the Cardinals.