sveumrules

Carsten Charles Sabathia is my Chourio placeholder for now. Monuments are built for legends and I'd put his 2008 run up there with Bo Jackson and Andre the Giant for the most legendary things I've witnessed. From 2008 to present there have been 1,859 individual pitchers seasons of at least 130 IP. During his 2008 run with the Brewers CCS put up a 39 ERA- (1st) | 56 FIP- (14th) | 40 HR+ (15th) | 72 WHIP+ (32nd) | 114 LOB+ (39th) | 253 K/BB+ (40th). This year Misio had a 43 ERA- (4th) | 52 FIP- (7th) | 62 HR+ (156th) | 61 WHIP+ (3rd) | 113 LOB+ (65th) | 233 K/BB+ (58th) for comparison. Even with a little bit of a clunker in G1, he's been pretty good in the postseason so far too with 16 IP of 54 ERA- | 48 FIP- | 49 HR+ | 72 WHIP+ | 213 K/BB+. (dang, might need to carve out two new spots sometime down the road) Since Chourio debuted in 2024 there are 99 players with at least 30 postseason PA, as of today Jackson comes in at +1.23 WPA (1st) | .346 ISO (6th) | .327 AVG (7th) | 179 wRC+ (8th) | .429 wOBA (8th) | .420 xwOBA (10th). A true joy to behold.

From 2021 thru 2026 there have been 127 pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched. Here are some of the pertinent rankings for Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes, Drew Rasmussen, and Brandon Woodruff... 907 IP (20th) | 84 ERA- (28th) | 90 FIP- (44th) 125 K+ (13th) | 85 AVG+ (7th) | 87 WHIP+ (21st) 20.1 rWAR (15th) | 16.7 fWAR (21st) | +9.43 WPA (13th) 831 IP (30th) | 72 ERA- (9th) | 77 FIP- (16th) 123 K+ (15th) | 85 AVG+ (8th) | 81 WHIP+ (9th) 22.3 rWAR (6th) | 19.7 fWAR (10th) | +9.61 WPA (12th) 617 IP (76th) | 68 ERA- (5th) | 76 FIP- (12th) 106 K+ (53rd) | 88 AVG+ (13th) | 79 WHIP+ (5th) 18.5 rWAR (20th) | 14.3 fWAR (30th) | +10.80 WPA (7th) 509 IP (122nd) | 67 ERA- (3rd) | 75 FIP- (11th) 133 K+ (8th) | 81 AVG+ (3rd) | 74 WHIP+ (2nd) 15.8 rWAR (28th) | 12.7 fWAR (36th) | +8.70 WPA (17th) ...maybe the most interesting thing is that Peralta has stayed the healthiest of the four despite being the smallest dude. Probably not too surprising that Woodruff has been the most dominant on a rate basis, but also had the most health misfortune. To crack Top 30 rWAR and Top 20 WPA despite being 122nd in IP is pretty remarkable in its own right though. Three of the top nine by both ERA- and WHIP+, four of the top 13 by AVG+, three of the top 15 by K+, four of the top 17 by WPA, four of the top 28 by rWAR.

Baddoo did most of his damage all the way back in 2021 with 461 PA of 108 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR. From 2022 to 2025 he followed that up with 682 PA of 73 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR. He did not appear in MLB during the 2026 season and finished with a pretty bleh 113 wRC+ over 262 PA in AAA. Frelick had a down year, no doubt, but $2.4M is small change to see if he is capable of bouncing back. Since Sal's first season in 2023 there are 296 players (just shy of 10 per team) with at least 1,000 PA. Only 85 of those players (not quite three per team) have 1,000 PA playing in the OF. Lowering the PA threshold to 850 gets us a little more robust player pool with 105 qualifiers. Some of Sal's ranks among those 105 outfielders... 1,689 PA (34th) | 8.3 BB% (50th) | 13.3 K% (5th) | .099 ISO (100th) | .262 AVG (31st) | .328 OBP (39th) | 94 wRC+ (73rd) | +7.7 BsR (21st) | +28 DRS and +16 FRV (both 3rd among RF) | 5.8 WAR (40th) Even with some of the worst power of the bunch, Sal has been good enough at everything else (getting on base, running the bases, playing defense) to put up career numbers that easily make him a starting calibre OF. Even if he only bounces back to around the 87 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR he put up in 2024 or the 94 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR per 425/450 PA he has averaged over his career that is still perfectly cromulent 3rd OF production for $2.4M. Clicking thru the 2026 team OF leaderboards it looks like the best 3rd OF was Ian Happ with 2.4 WAR. Average WAR for a 3rd OF was 1.1 with only six teams getting 1.5 WAR or more from their 3rd OF. There were 14 teams that got 1.5 WAR or less out of their 2nd outfielders this past season, including the Dodgers and Phillies (whose best OF was 188 PA of Bryce Harper for 1.1 WAR).

Three days is short rest, four days is regular rest, and the now typically preferred five days is giving them an extra day, That's how I look at it anyway. Wouldn't be too surprised if they used Misio out of the pen for an inning or two on what would normally be his throw day between starts, but would be pretty surprised if he started a game on three days rest unless it was some kind of G7 scenario where he was only expected to go four five innings tops. As of now I believe it would map out as start today. G2, day off, G3 (possible relief window) G4, day off, start G5 (on five days rest if needed). day off, G1, G2, day off, start G3 (on four days rest), G4, G5, day off, G6, start G7 (on four days rest if needed). day off, day off, day off, G1, start G2 (on four days rest), day off, G3, G4 (possible relief window) G5, day off, start G6 (on five days rest if needed), G7. If they were to close out the NLCS before G7, could line up the World Series rotation for Misio to start G1, G2, day off, G3, G4, start G5 (on four days rest), day off, G6, then would presumably be available for a couple relief innings on two days rest for G7 if needed.

Yeah, it's like who do you really need to pinch run for on this team? Contreras and Bauers are too valuable in the box to replace with a pinch runner. None of Turang, Pratt, Ortiz, Hamilton, Chourio, Mitchell, Lara, Frelick, or Yelich really require one. That leaves Vaughn and Sanchez as the only real guys you'd pinch run for. Say Vaughn starts, and gets a hit in the middle innings so you pinch run with Lara. Then when Lara comes up you like the match up with Sanchez so he pinch hits and gets on. You still have Frelick to run for him and take over in the field. Plus Hamilton waiting on the bench for an emergency of some sort. Easier for me to see a scenario where having a 13th pitcher is more useful than a 4th pinch runner.

You don't need a fine tooth comb to sift out why the Brewers have won the most games in MLB over the last three regular seasons...they've allowed the fewest runs in MLB (3.90 RA/G) while scoring the third most (4.97 RS/G). When you outscore your opponents by over one run per game over the course of three seasons, you'll naturally win a lot of games. Their pitchers have likewise tallied an MLB best 70.9 runs allowed based WAR (though their 52.7 FIP based WAR is only 6th) with some help from the position players saving them somewhere between 70 (FRV | 6th) and 138 (DRS | 3rd) runs along the way. With their -0.35 ERA/FIP differential second by fractions behind the Cubs at -0.36 over that stretch, I'm guessing it's closer to the latter. In addition to scoring and saving a lot of runs, the position players also tallied +42.6 BsR (1st) along with a 106 wRC+ (5th) and 82.4 WAR (5th). Oh, you like contextual measures? The bullpen's +27.72 Win Probability Added is second in MLB while their 189.97 RE24 is first. The batters are first in all of PA, wRC+, and runs scored with RISP, plus second in Win Probability Added behind only the Dodgers. Misio is likely to win the NL CY this year and is probably the closest thing we have to a superstar, while guys like Turang (12.9 WAR | 16th from 2024-26), Contreras (12.2 WAR | 20th), and Chourio (11.5 WAR | 24th) have been more down ballot MVP vote recipient level stars. Though Brice should land inside the Top Five at least this year with his 7.3 WAR at BRef second in the NL while his 5.9 WAR is 3rd at FanGraphs (plus the whole his team winning 103 games thing). All that said, the depth of the team has always been kind of their calling card so I set out trying to quantify that somehow. On the hitting side I used 400 PA as the cutoff point. From Turang at the top down to guys like Blake Perkins (1.4 WAR), Gary Sanchez (1.2 WAR), and Rhys Hoskins (1.1 WAR) the Brewers had 15 total players take at least 400 PA over the last three years with all of them tallying at least one win. Here is how the other 29 teams fared in terms of (total players to reach 400 PA | how many had at least 1.0 WAR | how many had at least 3.0 WAR | how many had at least 4.5 WAR) MIL (15 | 15 | 10 | 9) CHC (13 | 12 | 9 | 8) LAD (14 | 11 | 9 | 7) NYY (16 | 13 | 8 | 7) PHI (12 | 9 | 8 | 7) TOR (12 | 12 | 9 | 6) STL (16 | 11 | 8 | 6) ATH (16 | 10 | 7 | 6) ATL (14 | 10 | 7 | 6) NYM (17 | 15 | 9 | 5) BAL (18 | 13 | 8 | 5) ARI (17 | 13 | 8 | 5) DET (15 | 13 | 8 | 5) HOU (13 | 11 | 8 | 5) TEX (16 | 12 | 7 | 5) SDP (13 | 12 | 7 | 5) BOS (17 | 16 | 9 | 4) SFG (16 | 13 | 9 | 4) MIN (16 | 13 | 7 | 4) MIA (18 | 12 | 6 | 4) SEA (14 | 12 | 6 | 4) WAS (14 | 6 | 4 | 4) TBR (17 | 15 | 7 | 3) CLE (16 | 14 | 4 | 3) CHW (16 | 9 | 4 | 3) PIT (17 | 7 | 4 | 3) LAA (12 | 6 | 3 | 3) CIN (18 | 10 | 4 | 2) KCR (15 | 10 | 5 | 2) COL (15 | 8 | 4 | 1) Doing the same thing on the pitching side using a 70 IP minimum, runs allowed based WAR, and then cutoffs of 1.0 rWAR | 2.5 rWAR | 4.0 rWAR (slightly lower at the top end than the hitter ranges to account for WAR typically undervaluing relievers) and the Brewers had 24 pitchers with at least 70 IP, 20 of them at least 1.0 rWAR, 14 of them at least 2.5 rWAR, and seven at least 4.0 rWAR with Ashby (3.9 rWAR) just missing out. Here are how the other teams fared using the same criteria... MIL (24 | 20 | 14 | 7) BOS (21 | 15 | 11 | 7) SDP (20 | 16 | 9 | 7) CLE (18 | 12 | 10 | 7) NYY (19 | 15 | 11 | 6) ATL (19 | 15 | 8 | 6) DET (17 | 13 | 8 | 6) PHI (13 | 8 | 7 | 6) SEA (12 | 9 | 7 | 6) KCR (18 | 14 | 8 | 5) PIT (17 | 12 | 8 | 5) HOU (25 | 11 | 7 | 5) CIN (16 | 10 | 6 | 5) LAD (22 | 17 | 10 | 4) TBR (22 | 17 | 8 | 4) CHC (15 | 11 | 8 | 4) STL (20 | 12 | 6 | 4) ARI (16 | 11 | 6 | 4) NYM (18 | 15 | 10 | 3) TOR (21 | 14 | 5 | 3) TEX (21 | 14 | 5 | 3) MIN (18 | 7 | 5 | 3) CHW (19 | 9 | 4 | 3) MIA (20 | 12 | 7 | 2) WAS (18 | 8 | 6 | 2) BAL (21 | 13 | 4 | 2) SFG (21 | 11 | 5 | 2) LAA (17 | 8 | 5 | 1) ATH (22 | 9 | 3 | 1) COL (23 | 7 | 1 | 0)

Not 100% sure without the actual figures, but going somewhat by feel I'd guess guys like 2024 Contreras (+1.0 WAR), 2024 Chourio (+0.8 WAR), 2024 Megill (+0.5 WAR), 2025 Patrick (+0.9 WAR), 2026 Abner (+0.8 WAR), and 2026 Hall (+0.8 WAR) are some of the low end contenders for hitting that 95th percentile while guys like 2024 Myers (+1.4 WAR), 2024 Hudson (+1.7 WAR), 2025 Peralta (+2.7 WAR), 2025 Priester (+1.5 WAR), 2025 Abner (+1.8 WAR), 2026 Turang (+1.5 WAR), 2026 Bauers (+2.2 WAR), 2026 Mitchell (+1.5 WAR), 2026 Misio (+4.3 WAR), and 2026 Henderson (+1.9 WAR) blew by it pretty easily.

We know that the Brewers beating the projections during the regular season has become an almost annual tradition, especially of late with overages of 13, 16, and 20 wins the last three years compared to their preseason win projections on the FanGraphs Playoff Odds page. Now the ZiPS projections are only one half of that equation (along with the Steamer projections), and when you consider the team depth charts curated by FG staff maybe more like 25 or 33 percent of that equation, but one nice thing about ZiPS is that each season's team projection post includes 20th and 80th percentile outcomes (along with a host of other information) for every player. With that in mind, I was curious to see which players over the last three years have contributed the most to those overages by hitting their 80th percentile outcomes or better, so here it is (using RA9-WAR for the pitchers)... 2024 (80th percentile | actual) Contreras (4.5 WAR | 5.5 WAR) Chourio (3.1 WAR | 3.9 WAR) Ortiz (2.7 WAR | 3.2 WAR) Yelich (3.0 WAR | 3.0 WAR) Turang (2.5 WAR | 2.6 WAR) Mitchell (1.7 WAR | 1.9 WAR) Myers (2.0 WAR | 3.4 WAR) Hudson (1.0 WAR | 2.7 WAR) Rea (1.7 WAR | 2.0 WAR ) Koenig (1.1 WAR | 1.3 WAR) Megill (0.8 WAR | 1.3 WAR) 2024 Just Missed (80th percentile | actual) Adames (5.4 WAR | 4.9 WAR) Perkins (1.9 WAR | 1.6 WAR) Peralta (3.6 WAR | 3.3 WAR) Payamps (1.1 WAR | 1.0 WAR) 2025 (80th percentile | actual) Turang (3.8 WAR | 4.4 WAR) Frelick (3.3 WAR | 3.6 WAR) Durbin (2.2 WAR | 2.7 WAR) Collins (2.1 WAR | 2.6 WAR) Freddy (3.4 WAR | 6.1 WAR) Priester (2.0 WAR | 3.5 WAR) Abner (0.9 WAR | 2.7 WAR) Patrick (1.7 WAR | 2.6 WAR) Ashby (1.8 WAR | 2.1 WAR) Koenig (1.6 WAR | 1.6 WAR) Megill (1.1 WAR | 1.4 WAR) Misio (0.7 WAR | 0.7 WAR) 2025 Just Missed (80th percentile | acutal) Henderson (1.5 WAR | 1.2 WAR) Quintana (2.2 WAR | 1.8 WAR) Vaughn (127 OPS+ | 141 OPS+ | 2.5 WAR | 1.9 WAR) Bauers (114 OPS+ | 111 OPS+ | 1.1 WAR | 0.8 WAR) 2026 (80th percentile | actual) Turang (4.4 WAR | 5.9 WAR) Bauers (1.5 WAR | 3.7 WAR) Mitchell (1.6 WAR | 3.1 WAR) Misio (2.8 WAR | 7.1 WAR) Henderson (1.8 WAR | 3.7 WAR) Abner (1.8 WAR | 2.6 WAR) Gasser (1.5 WAR | 1.9 WAR) Hall (1.1 WAR | 1.9 WAR) Megill (1.5 WAR | 1.8 WAR) Drohan (1.1 WAR | 1.3 WAR) 2026 Just Missed (80th percentile | actual) Chourio (5.0 WAR | 4.6 WAR) Ortiz (3.0 WAR | 2.9 WAR) Pratt (2.1 WAR | 1.7 WAR) Patrick (2.2 WAR | 2.1 WAR) Ashby (1.6 WAR | 1.4 WAR) If I counted right that is 33 players that hit or exceeded their 80th percentile outcomes over the last three years, with another 13 or so that weren't too far off.

Always fun trying to read between the lines on who the org values more highly (or thinks is slightly better) between Wood & Miller. Is it a better sign that Matthew got the AFL nod and more reps, or that Darrien gets a briefer exposure with the big league club?

Fearsome Padres Pen 683 IP of 88 ERA- (7th) | 87 FIP- (3rd) | +6.28 WPA (7th) Brewers Pen (constantly mismanaged & overworked by Murphy per the IGTs) 640 IP of 82 ERA- (3rd) | 88 FIP- (4th) | +9.56 WPA (2nd)

Of the 26 FanGraphs writers who made postseason predictions, 18 have the Dodgers and Brewers facing off in the NLCS (plus three more who have a Brewers / Braves NLCS). Fourteen of the writers picked the Brewers to advance to the World Series (versus only seven for the Dodgers). Brewers versus Rays got the most votes for the World Series match up with nine. No other match up got more than three votes (including three for Brewers vs Guardians, and two for Brewers vs Yankees). Put it all together and ten writers picked the Brewers to win the whole dang enchilada, ahead of six picks for the Dodgers, and four for the Rays.

Pretty stacked field this year, so doubt Pratt (1.6 fWAR and 1.7 bWAR) or Lara (-0.1 fWAR and 1.2 bWAR) end up on any ballots. Logan Henderson on the other hand...his 3.7 Runs Allowed WAR at FanGraphs is tied with Nolan McLean for most among rookie NL hurlers, and Henderson edges him out 3.3 to 3.0 per BRef WAR despite pitching 81 fewer innings. Those extra innings do give Nolan (3.59 FIP | 3.5 fWAR) the edge in the default FIP WAR at FanGraphs over Logan (3.32 FIP | 2.4 fWAR) though. Will be interesting to see if the old school heads reward Sal Stewart (2.0 fWAR and 1.8 bWAR) for his shiny RBI total ahead of more well rounded players like Wetherholt (4.6 fWAR and 4.5 bWAR), Benge (4.3 fWAR and 4.3 bWAR), and even fellow first baseman TJ Rumfield (2.5 fWAR and 3.5 bWAR).

It makes for good optics sure, but more importantly it also makes for winning baseball. Most wins in MLB this year, most wins in MLB last year, most wins in MLB total since 2024. One hundred more wins than losses over the three years Murphy has managed the club. Plus forty nine wins over their preseason projections at FanGraphs during those three years. The Cubs were supposed to win the division each of the last three years per the preseason prognosticators, instead they finished a total of twenty nine games behind the Brewers since Murphy got here. After all the consternation around the trade deadline, and two of the three acquisitions flopping hard, plus Harrison's continued pumpkin-ization on top of it all, (not to mention all the wrong lineup and bullpen decisions made by Murphy per the IGTs) the Brewers went out and put up an MLB best 34 W - 16 L record after the deadline anyway. After all the consternation from the online fanbase about his benching of Pratt the Brewers went an MLB best 22 W - 8 L to close out the season afterward. Overblown nonsense indeed.

You left out the part where Brewers catchers had the third most challenges (254), the third most overturns (143) and the third most positive run value (+14.0) behind the plate. Considering the Brewers 125 batter initiated reviews were the second fewest in all of MLB, it seems like focus of their challenge strategy was to mostly save them for the run prevention side.

Crow certainly had a nice year in AAA with 105 IP of 77 ERA- and 84 FIP-, but I think I would have probably voted for Braylon Owens with 93 IP of 78 ERA- and 73 FIP- between Wisconsin and Biloxi for the #1 spot personally. Owens 29.9 K% was also the best in the system (min. 70 IP) and well ahead of Crow's 23.3 K%. Also would have probably voted for Wande Torres at 122 IP of 84 ERA- and 88 FIP- with a 24.4 K% ahead of Manuel Rodriguez at 133 IP of 96 ERA- and 111 FIP- with a 20.9 K%. Even giving Rodriguez some extra credit for being a year younger at a higher level, Wande just flat pitched better.

Not at all, Yelich's few positive outcomes this year have come at the most needed times... Bases Empty 256 PA of 80 wRC+ Runners On 244 PA of 104 wRC+ Scoring Position 150 PA of 127 wRC+ Low Leverage 228 PA of 71 wRC+ Medium Leverage 223 PA of 100 wRC+ High Leverage 49 PA of 151 wRC+ Two Outs 160 PA of 63 wRC+ One Out 156 PA of 94 wRC+ No Outs 184 PA of 114 wRC+ Trailing in Game 141 PA of .747 OPS (117 sOPS+) Late and Close 71 PA of .809 OPS (132 sOPS+) Runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs 33 PA of 1.080 OPS (157 sOPS+) Put all those ascending situational splits together and out of 267 players with at least 300 PA this season Yelich finished with +1.34 Win Probability Added (59th, fractions behind Chourio at +1.35) and a 1.64 Clutch Score that was 9th highest on the same leaderboard.

Great recognition for Fischer, and another successful summer on the farm. Looks like the Brewers had 13 players in the minors with at least 300 PA and a 120 wRC+ this year (twelve if you don't count Ragsdale) from Fischer at a 162 wRC+ (1.7 years younger than average in AA) down to Eric Bitonti with a 122 wRC+ (2.1 years younger than average in A+) and guys like Lara (144 | 5 years younger than average in AAA), Adamczewski (142 | 2.7 years younger than average in AA), Antunez (133 | 2.3 years younger than average in A), Burke (127 | 3.1 years younger than average in AAA), Payne (127 | 4.7 years younger than average in AA), and Ebel (124 | 4.1 years younger than average in A+) sprinkled in between. Here's how many players other organizations had that met that same 300 PA / 120 wRC+ criteria... CLE (17) LAD (17) DET (12) MIN (11) WAS (11) ATL (10) CIN (10) TBR (10) CHC (9) STL (9) TEX (9) NYY (8) PIT (8) BOS (7) COL (7) SEA (7) TOR (7) KCR (6) LAA (6) SFG (6) BAL (5) CHW (5) ARI (4) HOU (4) MIA (4) PHI (3) SDP (3) ATH (2) NYM (2) ...not quite in the elite category with the Guardians and Dodgers, but right at the top of that next group. For the longest time the ding was that the Brewers couldn't develop position players, but they've gotten an MLB best 83.4 WAR from position players age 28 and under since Arnold took over in 2023, twenty more wins than the Royals and Cubs tied for second at 63.4 WAR.

Guys like Ohtani (139 wRC+), Betts (114 wRC+), and Freeman (120 wRC+) had down years, but they have long track records of success so the projections are still buying in on them to positively regress to a 156, 123, and 126 wRC+ respectively. On the flip side guys like Turang (126 wRC+ last two years), Bauers (148 wRC+ since 9/5/25), and Vaughn (138 wRC+ with MIL) have been ascendent, but also have large-ish samples of less encouraging results before that so are still being projected for regression to a 109, 123, and 108 wRC+ respectively. Ultimately, I think it comes down to the FG projections heavily weighting the playing time towards star players for the postseason and the Dodgers have the most star players with long track records to support better projections. On the PECOTA side all I can really think of is that even though the Rays have the hard draw on the AL East side of the bracket, it is still an easier draw than the slate of potential opponents the Brewers have to face. Would guess if it comes down to a MIL / TBR World Series that PECOTA would favor the Brewers, but they just get knocked out somewhere along the way beforehand in the simulations more often than the Rays do.

Best record in MLB this year, and last year, and over the last three years with the Brewers at a 293 W - 193 L record since Murphy took over. One Hundred more wins than losses. Even with May and Senzatela putting up 57 IP of -1.69 WPA (JoJo was small sample OK though with 13 IP of 81 ERA- | 92 FIP- and +0.28 WPA) the Brewers still managed an MLB best 34 W - 16 L record after the trade deadline. While the Padres were blazing hot at 17 W - 3 L to close the season out the Brewers were just humming along at a 15 W - 4 L clip over the same date range. With RISP since 2024 the Brewers have 247 more PA than the Cubs in second place, their 118 wRC+ with RISP is also tops just ahead of the expensive star studded Dodgers (117) and Yankees (116) lineups, add it all up and they've scored 82 more runs than the Diamondbacks in second place over the last three seasons with Murphy setting the tone and expectations. Last year, BaseRuns thought the Brewers should have scored around 4.77 R/G (10th) with neutral sequencing. They actually scored 4.98 R/G (3rd) due in large part that RISP performance plus elite base advancement (+14.4 XBR | 1st). This year BaseRuns thought they should have scored around 4.92 R/G (3rd) with neutral sequencing. They actually scored 5.14 R/G (2nd) again adding an extra two tenths of a run per game with their RISP performance and a cut in half but still MLB best +7.1 XBR advancing bases on batted balls. During the 2017 to 2023 run of winning at least 86 games every full season, winning the sixth most games in all of MLB, I pretty much believed that was the best we could hope for as small market fans at the bottom end of a tilted financial landscape. Wild to think that Stearns and Counsell leaving of their own volition for perceived greener pastures would end up being the best thing that ever happened for a franchise that's improved season over season over season for three years running now. All that's left to do is win eleven games in October.

The field is set and the 2026 Postseason starts tomorrow. Some World Series Win Percents from various sources... PECOTA TBR (19.2%) MIL (18.5%) LAD (16.7%) CLE (11.5%) NYY (5.9%) HOU (4.6%) BOS (3.7%) CHW (3.1%) ATL (4.9%) CHC (4.7%) SDP (4.2%) PHI (3.0%) FanGraphs (Projections) LAD (37.8%) MIL (11.5%) CLE (9.1%) TBR (8.3%) NYY (6.6%) BOS (5.2%) HOU (3.4%) CHW (1.3%) PHI (5.6%) CHC (4.7%) ATL (3.7%) SDP (2.7%) FanGraphs (Season to Date) MIL (23.7%) LAD (18.9%) TBR (11.1%) CLE (7.0%) NYY (8.1%) BOS (5.7%) CHW (5.0%) HOU (2.6%) CHC (7.0%) ATL (5.3%) SDP (3.4%) PHI (2.3%) Baseball Reference MIL (18.6%) TBR (14.5%) LAD (12.4%) CLE (6.7%) BOS (8.0%) NYY (6.9%) CHW (6.3%) HOU (2.4%) CHC (11.1%) PHI (5.0%) SDP (4.7%) ATL (3.5%) ...think the FG Projections probably align the most with how baseball fans tend to think of the Dodgers relative to the rest of the field. Put em all together and the Brewers win the World Series in something like 18.1% of simulated future realities. I'll take those odds, don't really have any other choice. GO BREWERS !!

One of the best infield defenders in MLB, I think everyone can agree on that. The bat is a little tricker, his hot streak since July 4th has been incredible, but it's also been incredibly lucky with an actual .393 wOBA but only a .306 expected wOBA under the hood. For his career with the Brewers he has a .299 actual wOBA, a .292 expected wOBA, and a 91 wRC+. Combine that with his top end defense and out of 280 players with at least 800 PA since 2024 his 7.3 WAR comes in 78th. Personally I'd keep him around barring some team making an offer you can't refuse. If Made isn't interested in signing an extension before the season, and thus needs to marinate in AAA for awhile to get that extra year of service time (barring whatever changes might happen in the new CBA), Joey is the starting 3B on opening day. If Jesus extends and is the opening day 3B, Joey is a perfect 4th infielder to spell Turang against the occasional lefty, and give Pratt/Made a day off every week or so as they acclimate to their first full MLB seasons.

Thru May 31st .118 Isolated Slugging (30th) Since June 1st .158 Isolated Slugging (19th) Obviously the Brewers are not a power first team, but they have been much improved in that department since a slow start to the year. Last year's Blue Jays team that took the Dodgers to G7 had a .162 Isolated Slugging. Looking at the whole season numbers it probably isn't a coincidence that the three perpetually successful small market teams - MIL (.144 ISO | 25th), TBR (.143 ISO | 26th), and CLE (.139 ISO | 28th) - all land at the bottom of the Isolated Slugging leaderboard. When power is expensive and revenues are imbalanced, (smart) teams with less spending power need to find other ways to win ballgames if they even want to make the playoffs (or set franchise win records while winning the most games in MLB two years in a row). Jake Bauers is 21st in MLB among qualified batters with a .225 ISO this year, of the 20 players ahead of him only six are still with their original organization.

Because they were both dealing with injuries which prevented them from catching more.

Easy call on Gasser for me. Out of 104 pitchers with at least 50 IP since July 19th he is at a 72 ERA- (28th) and 84 FIP- (30th). Both the Phillies (29 W - 26 L vs LH starters | 57 W - 44 L vs RH starters) and Padres (21 W - 21 L vs LH starters | 66 W - 48 L vs RH starters) have been considerably worse against southpaw starting pitchers also if that's who we end up playing.

Since Arnold took over four has definitely been the Magic Number. 2023 3 or fewer (42.6% of games) 16 W - 53 L (.232 W%) 4 or more (57.4% of games) 76 W - 17 L (.826 W%) 2024 3 or fewer (43.2% of games) 22 W - 48 L (.314 W%) 4 or more (56.8% of games) 71 W - 21 L (.772 W%) 2025 3 or fewer (39.5% of games) 16 W - 48 L (.250 W%) 4 or more (60.5% of games) 81 W - 17 L (.827 W%) 2026 3 or fewer (38.5% of games) 16 W - 44 L (.267 W%) 4 or more (61.5% of games) 82 W - 14 L (.854 W%)