sveumrules

I’d guess it gets incorporated into the framing metrics. Like a borderline pitch is called a ball so they get -0.XX framing runs, but they challenge the call & it’s overturned to a strike so instead they get +0.XX framing runs.

Yeah, 8/210 could be closer to an opening offer from Turang's camp than a meet in the middle kind of number, but the offensive uptick Brice has shown for the last 70 games or so now also puts him a notch above Nico from a remaining upside perspective. Say he's gonna make around $35M in Arby's over the next three years then offer $25M per FA season over the five years after that and it comes out to an even 8/160. That's a lot of money to say no to, but I wouldn't be surprised if Brice and his reps want at least $200M to forego FA at this point.

It's never too late if one is willing to pay top dollar. He'd surely want something richer than the six years and $141M that Nico Hoerner just signed for. Maybe he'd go for something like eight years and $210M, that would give him the record for AAV at 2B and would be the second largest total outlay for a keystone man after Cano got ten years and $240M back in 2013.

Ortiz (4.5 WAR) and Hall (0.8 rWAR) have already outproduced what Burnes did (4.5 rWAR) in his lone Baltimore season. The Brewers also presumably put some of that cost savings on Burnes towards signing Hoskins (1.1 WAR in his two Milwaukee seasons). Maybe they'd be better off had they kept Burnes and took the QO and found replacements for Ortiz/Hall/Rhys production from the last two plus years elsewhere, but they've already won the 2nd most games in MLB since 2024 so there is a lot more room for downward mobility there than upward in any hypothetical.

For sure. Guys like Tate Kuehner (20.2 IP of 87 ERA- | 65 FIP-), Stiven Cruz (12.1 IP of 68 ERA- | 74 FIP-), Will Childers (9 IP of 0 ERA- | 38 FIP-), Brian Fitzpatrick (8.1 IP of 0 ERA- | 43 FIP-), and Mark Manfredi (7.1 IP of 23 ERA- | 36 FIP-) have all had encouraging small sample starts at the upper levels. None of them are on the MLB Top 30 (looks like Kuehner is #34 on FG list) but it wouldn't surprise me to see all five of them end up in MLB at some point even if middle relief is probably the ceiling for everybody except Tate who still has a shot at a back end starter or maybe something like a Koenig 7th inning guy.

Good topic. Hot hitters like Adamczewski (38 PA of 216 wRC+), Pena (43 PA of 178 wRC+), Payne (37 PA of 167 wRC+), Lara (83 PA of 162 wRC+), O'Rae (67 PA of 161 wRC+), Made (74 PA of 160 wRC+), Dinges (41 PA of 154 wRC+), and Burke (72 PA of 133 wRC+) have definitely outnumbered their pitching counterparts here in the early part of the season. Since the big five of Hader, Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes and Williams graduated the Brewers have really only developed and graduated, what, three arms on the current active roster? Ashby, Uribe and Misio. I guess four if you count CRod, but he is more of an up/down guy. If we zoom it out to the 40 Man that adds Henderson and Yoho as potential long term guys with a chance to make an impact. After that it's in the trade zone. Priester, Patrick, Harrison, Sproat, Gasser, Crow, Drohan among the SP options with Megill, Zerpa, Anderson, Hall, Koenig all on the trade side out of the pen. Ultimately I think there are three things helping me see past the early season struggles from some of the minors arms...(1) it's early (2) with the acknowledgement that pitcher attrition rates are unrelenting the upper level depth is much better than the lower levels (3) looks like Arnold could maybe have a surplus of hitters in the coming years to deal from and he's proven pretty adept on that front over his first few seasons.

If we're talking a single number, yes, wRC+ is best as it assigns weighted run values to each individual outcome based on that season's offensive environment while also attempting to account for the difference between home stadiums. OPS or OPS+ get you pretty dang close and are perfectly cromulent measures but they overvalue SLG relative to OBP. See a player like PCA with his 238/284/427 line shaking out to a 102 OPS+ but only a 95 wRC+. For me personally, I like seeing the triple slash best because it gives one a better idea of how the production is arrived at. Since 2021 both Yandy Diaz and Kyle Schwarber have matching 136 wRC+ marks but did it in way different styles with Yandy at 295/376/449 compared to 231/354/515 for Schwarber. Like most things the truth about batting average probably lies somewhere in the middle. It's nowhere near as important as it was considered to be in the pre-Moneyball days, but at the same time it shouldn't be ignored or written off as completely meaningless because it only tells us part of the story either. A player's hit tool is still a pretty foundational aspect of their profile after all.

Back in 2022 Coleman threw a career high 128 IP, but over the next three seasons he only pitched 24 IP, 9 IP, and 50 IP on account of injury. Would imagine the Brewers don't want him to throw much more than 100 IP this season as he builds back up. Easier to skip a start, give an extra day's rest, or limit his innings per appearance down in Nashville.

Yeah, lots of craziness looking at the early standings. The combination of Cohen's checkbook and Stearns strategery hasn't resulted in the instant juggernaut many predicted. Since the front office switcheroo in 2023 the Brewers have 294 wins (2nd in MLB) while the Mets are a solitary game over .500 at 254 W - 253 L despite outspending the Brewers by about $880M in OD payroll looking at the numbers on Cots. Mets current playoff odds are 45.0% on FG and 57.0% on BPro. Defending AL Champs were a top two FA spender this offseason and are currently 7 W - 13 L. Blue Jays current playoff odds are 28.3% on FanGraphs and 40.0% on BPro. Their opponents in the ALCS were supposed to have the easiest path to a Division Title besides the Dodgers but are currently sitting at 9 W - 13 L. Mariners current playoff odds are 69.6% on FG and 88.1% on BPro. Phillies have the 3rd most wins on that 2023 to present leaderboard, but are currently 8 W - 12 L with an old expensive roster and thin farm system. Current playoff odds are 53.5% on FG and 39.1% on BPro. Red Sox were predicted to compete for the AL East crown with TOR and NYY but instead sit at 8 W - 12 L. Current playoff odds are 41.4% on FG and 34.6% on BPro. Lotta season left, and I'd imagine a couple two tree of the five teams above will turn it around and still end up making the playoffs, but looking at all that is a pretty good reminder of how much worse off the Brewers could be at the moment considering the myriad issues they've had over their first 20 games.

Looks like as of this morning five of the top twelve records in all of MLB reside in the NL Central, take that coastal elites. Seems like as good a time as any to check back in on what the computers think it all might mean... FanGraphs PIT: 85.1 W | 32.7% Div CHC: 84.6 W | 29.0% Div MIL: 84.7 W | 24.6% Div CIN: 79.8 W | 8.8% Div STL: 77.6 W | 4.9% Div PECOTA CHC: 88.5 W | 54.6% Div MIL: 83.7 W | 22.0% Div PIT: 81.7 W | 11.9% Div CIN: 80.9 W | 10.6% Div STL: 71.3 W | 0.9% Div Reds and Brewers are pretty close in both systems with a little larger disagreement on the Pirates, Cubs and Cardinals here in the still early going. The above FanGraphs projections are based off a 50/50 split of the Steamer and ZiPS projections for each player, but as we know the Brewers are pretty good at beating those. If we instead click the FanGraphs projections over to Season To Date results instead that shakes things up a bit... FanGraphs (Season To Date) MIL: 94.0 W | 37.6% Div CHC: 92.7 W | 32.7% Div PIT: 86.1 W | 17.1% Div CIN: 79.8 W | 8.6% Div STL: 74.0 W | 4.0% Div

Forget Nashville. If Made is still laying waste to the Southern League while Ortiz, Rengifo, Hamilton, Pratt, Jett, and Wilken continue their varying degrees of current struggles let Jesus ascend straight to Milwaukee.

How so? 2026 Ortiz (58 PA) 196/268/196 (38 wRC+) 8.6 BB% | 22.4 K% .233 expected wOBA 2026 Frelick (78 PA) 179/286/254 (60 wRC+) 11.5 BB% | 15.4 K% .289 expected wOBA

Yeah, small samples all around but he's at 137/308/255 (63 wRC+) with a 33.8 K% over 65 PA after going bonkers (362 wRC+ over 13 PA) in that season opening series against us. With 5 HR | 17 BB | 26 K over his first 78 PA he is rocking a 61.5% 3TO rate that would make Rob Deer (49.8%) or Russell Branyan (51.4%) or even Joey Gallo (59.6%) blush.

From 2021-24 he was pretty much the epitome of replacement level with 367 IP of 3.83 ERA | 4.35 FIP at AA/AAA but only 40 IP of 6.75 ERA | 5.55 FIP in MLB, but last year he turned in what pretty much amounts to like #3/#4 SP kind of production in the modern pitching hellscape with 110 IP of 98 ERA- | 76 FIP-. Out of 127 pitchers with at least 100 IP in 2025 he was 43rd with 2.5 fWAR but his 1.4 rWAR was only 84th. Given his age and track record last year was probably a career year for Janson, but I think he's at least elevated himself from replacement level to a cromulent swingman.

Murakami is 1B/DH only so there wasn't really room for him with Yelich, Vaughn, Bauers, plus Contreras DHing on days he doesn't catch.

Here's the original trade thread for anyone who wants to take a pretty fun trip down memory lane.

The biggest advantage that Patrick has over Henderson, Gasser, Drohan and Crow is that he is already built up for a full season SP workload (23: 124 IP | 24: 136 IP | 25: 171 IP) where I probably wouldn't want to push any of those other four much over 100 to 140 IP this year given their recent innings totals. Henderson (23: 78 IP | 24: 81 IP | 25: 113 IP) Gasser (22: 137 IP | 23: 135 IP | 24: 40 IP | 25: 46 IP) Drohan (22: 129 IP | 23: 123 IP | 24: 16 IP | 25: 54 IP) Crow (22: 128 IP | 23: 24 IP | 24: 9 IP | 25: 50 IP) In his small sample start to 2026 both of Chad's FIP (3.53 to 4.01) and xFIP (3.98 to 5.43) are up, while his xERA via StatCast (3.88 to 3.06) has improved despite the shaky K/BB/HR profile in the early going. For his larger sample of work in 2025 Patrick had matching 3.53 ERA/FIP with a 3.98 xFIP indicating he suppressed HR at a better rate (85 HR+) than should be expected considering his elevated flyball rate (116 FB+) so some regression should naturally be incoming. But at the same time, the 2023-25 Brewers as a team had a 98 xFIP- (14th) and 105 FB+ (3rd) but only allowed an 87 ERA- (1st) so giving up a bunch of flyballs en route to handily out performing their xFIP is kinda their formula. If at some point all of Misio, Priester, Harrison, Sproat and Woody are healthy and humming sending Patrick to the pen probably makes the most sense, but until then I think the rotation needs his innings more.

Appreciate it, and just thought of another one that slipped my mind putting together the original post. Now you know what really gets a pitcher all kerfuffled? Getting to the bottom of the order and those easy outs aren't so easy as you were hoping they'd be. Since 2024 the Brewers 7-8-9 hitters are tied for 1st with a 98 wRC+, have scored thee most runs and driven in the second most runs out of all the 7-8-9 hitters in MLB. Pretty, pretty annoying.

Clarke announced his retirement this spring, but Cooper Hummel is still plying his trade for Yokohama in the Japan Central League (pay no attention to the 584 OPS and 35.7 K% though).

Since Pat Murphy took over in 2024 the Brewers 198 W - 136 L record is 2nd best in MLB sandwiched between the Dodgers (199 W) and Phillies (197 W). Their payroll has not been sandwiched between those two teams, it’s more like the crust your kids had you cut off their Wonder Bread. Their 107 wRC+ (8th) since 2024 is plenty good, especially compared to the dead nuts even 100 wRC+ that Brewers batters posted from 2017-23, but not so good that one would expect them to have scored the 4th most runs in MLB over the last two plus years & counting. Not to mention the below average power at 20th in HR and 22nd in isolated slugging. So how they do that? In short (punintentional) they are annoying. So let’s go over some of the many ways how. You know what’s annoying? When guys don’t swing at your garbage. The Brewers 44.8 Swing% is lowest in MLB since 2024, and their 29% Chase Rate is 2nd lowest. Despite the lack of power their 9.5 BB% is 2nd in MLB since 2024. You know what else is annoying? Buncha fast dudes running all over the place. The Brewers +37.5 BsR and +16.9 weighted Stolen Base runs and +20.7 Extra Base runs are all best in MLB since 2024. That speed has also resulted in an MLB best 322 infield hits since 2024. Ground balls are passé in the analytics era, but the Brewers have the 4th most PA ending in a groundball since 2024 with an MLB best .276 BABIP, second place is all the way down at .260…ANNOYING. How else art thou annoying? Having runners on base constantly. Since 2024 the Brewers 5,847 PA with runners on base are thee most in MLB while they’ve hit for a 117 wRC+ (2nd) resulting in 1,381 RBI (2nd). You know what’s really annoying though? Refusing to make the third out. Since 2024 the Brewers 4,155 PA with two out are most in MLB, While their 106 wRC+ is only 7th, their 629 RBI are 2nd in MLB. FanGraphs doesn’t aggregate splits for two strikes that I could find, but clicking around BRef the Brewers are plenty annoying there too. 2024: 1st in PA, 7th in OPS, 4th in RBI 2025: 6th in PA, 4th in OPS, 2nd in RBI 2026: 3rd in PA, 4th in OPS, 1st in RBI Ok, one last annoying thing. You ever think you got a hit, just for the fielder to snatch your dreams away at the last moment? Yeah, the Brewers are good at that too. Since 2024 they are at +81 DRS (7th) and +62 FRV (4th) helping their pitchers limit hits (.230 avg against | 6th) and strand runners (76.1 LOB% | 1st) en route to shaving runs (-0.45 ERA/FIP gap | 1st) at a league best clip (3.61 ERA | 1st).

2019 Hiura (348 PA) 141 K+ | 134 BABIP+ 81 BB+ | 117 AVG+ | 143 ISO+ 22-26 Mitchell (470 PA) 152 K+ | 130 BABIP+ 123 BB+ | 105 AVG+ | 117 ISO+ Definitely brothers in the extreme K and BABIP profiles, nice thing is Garrett has the walks, speed and defense to fall back on where Keston had to extract all his value in the batter's box before giving a bunch back in the field. Best recent comp for what the ever elusive healthy season might potentially look like is probably something in the neighborhood of circa 2023 Brandon Marsh... 22-26 Mitchell (470 PA) 10.4 BB% | 34.0 K% | 118 wRC+ .184 ISO | .383 BABIP +4.9 BsR | +5.1 DEF | 3.7 WAR 2023 Marsh (472 PA) 12.5 BB% | 30.5 K% | 124 wRC+ .181 ISO | .397 BABIP +2.7 BsR | +2.7 DEF | 3.5 WAR

From 2022-25 there were 529 players in MLB with at least 400 PA. Garrett Mitchell had some of the more extreme rankings in the sample with a .376 BABIP (1st) and 33.9 K% (517th). Despite his 442 PA coming in all the way down at 514th, his 3.3 WAR was 232nd over those four seasons. With 30 teams and nine lineup spots that is starter calibre production despite 6th OF level playing time on account of all the injuries. Over his first 32 PA of 2026 he has a .615 BABIP and 40.6 K% exasperating any existing questions about the unsustainable nature of his production. But dang if it ain't been fun anywho. One big difference between his tiny sample production this year versus his scattered small sample production from 2022-25 is that he is hitting the ball way harder with a 98.4 MPH avg exit velo and .411 xwOBA so far this year compared to an 89.3 MPH avg exit velo and .297 xwOBA from 2022-25.

Yeah, would imagine he was saving Sanchez, Lockridge, Matos to pinch hit for some of those lefties if the Red Sox would have gotten a lead and went to Chapman in the 9th.

I generally agree that the rotation covering as many innings as possible is the best way to go, but it's kind of interesting looking back at 2021 to 2023 when the Brewers had all of Burnes (562 IP of 70 ERA- | 69 FIP-), Woodruff (399 IP of 65 ERA- | 74 FIP-), and Peralta (384 IP of 79 ERA- | 79 FIP-) in the fold plus a nice back half of Houser (342 IP of 97 ERA- | 99 FIP-), Lauer (306 IP of 94 ERA- | 112 FIP-), and Miley (120 IP of 72 ERA- | 107 FIP-) the rotation came in in at 2,574 IP (6th) of 86 ERA- (2nd) and 90 FIP- (4th) shaking out to 50.5 rWAR (3rd) and 43.8 fWAR (4th) over those three seasons. Over those same three seasons the bullpen posted 1,750 IP (21st) of 91 ERA- (8th) and 98 FIP- (17th) shaking out to 15.5 rWAR (7th), 10.5 fWAR (18th), and +19.31 WPA (3rd). Put it all together and the staff as a whole from 2021 to 2023 had an 88 ERA- (3rd) and 94 FIP- (6th) for 66.0 rWAR (3rd) and 54.3 fWAR (7th). The defense helped them run a -0.27 ERA/FIP gap (3rd). Starting in 2024 with Burnes traded and Woodruff on the mend the formula changed considerably. From then thru yesterday the Brewers rotation has 1,642 IP (26th) of 93 ERA- (8th) and 105 FIP- (24th) shaking out to 28.6 rWAR (12th) and 19.8 fWAR (22nd). Of course this has necessarily increased the amount of innings covered by relievers, with the 2024 through yesterday Brewers bullpen posting 1,326 IP (4th) of 81 ERA- (2nd) and 91 FIP- (3rd) shaking out to 18.6 rWAR (1st), 12.1 fWAR (3rd), and +18.50 WPA (2nd). Despite having to cover far more innings, the 2024 through yesterday bullpen has had considerably better results than the 2021 to 2023 bullpen that didn't have to throw nearly as much. Put it all together and the staff as a whole from 2024 thru yesterday is at an 88 ERA- (1st) and 99 FIP- (18th) shaking out to 47.2 rWAR (3rd) and 31.9 fWAR (15th). The defense has helped them run a -0.44 ERA/FIP gap (1st). Pretty wild that all is left of the Big Three is a post-shoulder surgery Woodruff, plus they've traded away two of the better relievers of the last decade in Hader and Williams, and at least to this point a little over two years in they haven't really lost any ground in a macro run prevention sense (with a big assist from the defense). As of today it looks like FanGraphs Depth Charts has them projected at 4.39 runs allowed per game (13th), while PECTOA has them around 4.26 runs allowed per game (tied for 11th/12th) compared to them actually allowing 3.92 R/G (2nd) over their last 333 games since Murph arrived in 2024 and 3.99 R/G (3rd) over their last 819 games from 2021 thru yesterday.

Thru the first week & a half the Brewers are tied for the most wins in MLB (7), have the best run differential (+28), the most stolen bases (20), are second in runs per game (6.67) & OBP (.369), and third in SLG (.446) and wRC+ (134). I’m sure Chourio (& Vaughn & Priester) will be needed at some point, but no price has really been paid as of yet.