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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Don't think he's really a fit with the Brewers, but Brandon Lowe could be somebody the Rays try to move this offseason. He's posted 10.9 WAR over 1,314 career PAs with a 136 OPS+ while playing mostly 2B with a little OF sprinkled in. Also signed to a nice extension paying him 18 million over the next three years with 10.5/11.5 million team options for 2025/26. The rub is he's now at 120 postseason PAs with a 115/167/257 triple slash & 47 strikeouts. Ouch.
  2. sveumrules
    Who are some names you would consider as a "big hire"? Asking out of curiosity...not very familiar with what the potential candidate pool even looks like Giants have had the biggest recent organizational turnaround in terms of hitting performance & it resulted from hiring some guys nobody outside of baseball inner circles knew anything about. They've got Donnie Ecker (35, topped out in Frontier League), Justin Viele (30, topped out in Sally League) and Dustin Lind (33, topped out at U Montana Billings) listed under various iterations of hitting coach.
  3. sveumrules
    Ketel Marte is someone along the same lines of Reynolds that could be a possibility on the trade market. Arizona is going nowhere, he's a switch hitter with up the middle positional versatility and is on a team friendly extension that pays 8 million in 2022 with 10/12 million team options for 2023/24. Since 2019 he's posted a 319/375/541 (137 wRC+) line with a 13.9% K rate & tallied 9.5 WAR, 28th best in that span. He wouldn't be cheap to acquire in terms of prospects, but entering his age 28 season in 2022 lines up nicely with our current MLB core.
  4. sveumrules
    The Knicks and the Bulls are both very interesting squads as well. Ultimately, neither have what it takes to upend the Bucks though. Agreed. Whatever the Bulls were doing hadn't worked for awhile now so gotta give them credit for making some moves. Should at least elevate them from the dregs of the East to the playoff hunt. Kemba could give the Knicks a nice boost too if his knee is right. My best guess at East tiers would be something like... ECF: MKE | BKN Playoffs: MIA | BOS | ATL | PHI Play-in: NYK | IND | CHI | TOR Lottery: CHA | WAS | ORL | CLE | DET
  5. sveumrules
    Just need him to be a #3 behind Air Nwora.
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah. I think Miami will be the team that emerges from that 2nd tier as the team to jump up into the Bucks / Nets tier. Lowry / Robinson / Butler / PJ / Bam is a pretty well rounded starting five. If Herro takes things seriously this year he could be an interesting 6th man. Oladipo should give them a boost at some point if he can ever get his health right. Plus Spoelstra always seems to get the most out of his team.
  7. sveumrules
    Nets could really use World B. Flat right about now.
  8. sveumrules
    I'd imagine a small handful of the more popular & better run Minor League franchises make a nice little profit every year, but I believe for the overwhelming majority it's more of a labor of love where breaking somewhere close to even financially is considered a "good" season.
  9. sveumrules
    Shades of May 1st when Mario pinch walked in his first MLB PA then came around to score the winning run on a Travis Shaw walk off single.
  10. sveumrules
    If I'm adding right the money is pretty close. 6/189 for Stanton vs 7/188.5 for Yelich. Giancarlo's posted a 138 wRC+ over the last two seasons though, so Yankees would probably say no.
  11. sveumrules
    Can't believe the regular season starts tomorrow already. Raise that banner!!! Not too concerned with results this year, just hope everyone is healthy & ready to go come playoff time to defend the title. Bobby, DDV & Semi didn't play at all in preseason & Hood only played ten minutes, so start of the season rotation probably looking something like... Jrue / Hill Grayson / Pat Khris / Nwora Giannis / Thanasis Brook Might be some backup center minutes for Mamu early on if Bobby & Semi are both out for a bit to begin with.
  12. sveumrules
    About a third of the way through the season now & it looks like DAL, GB, TB, ARI & LA are the playoff locks in the NFC barring major injury. Getting a top 3 seed would be nice to ensure either a 1st round bye or one of the couple mediocre teams that sneak in as the 6/7 seeds as the 1st round match up. That 4/5 game will likely be pretty evenly matched.
  13. sveumrules
    In baseball the numbers are the narrative, if they don't jibe with one's personal narrative they may want to reconsider. By all objective measures short of "make/win WS" the Brewers have been competitive for five seasons now. If you don't want to measure the Brewers against other MLB teams that is certainly your prerogative, but it doesn't offer much of a base for comparison. I guess we could compare them against themselves? 1970-77 | 550-738 .427 (The Expansion Years) 1978-83 | 518-400 .564 (Molitor Yount Glory Years) 1984-86 | 215-268 .445 (Molitor Yount Hangover Years) 1987-92 | 508-464 .523 (Molitor Yount Twilight Years) 1993-06 | 981-1,219 .446 (Fourteen Years In The Wilderness) 2007-11 | 426-384 .526 (Braun Fielder Years) 2012-16 | 380-430 .469 (Late Melvin Early Stearns Years) 2017-21 | 395-314 .557 (Stearns Competitive Years)
  14. sveumrules
    How many World series have they played in in that time?? Also, how many LCS's have they even appeared in in those years. I know your a big "stats/analytical" guy so I'm assuming you can provide the answer to this?? In the past five seasons the Dodgers have been in 3 World Series, the Astros 2 WS and the Red Sox, Nationals & Rays have been in one WS each. If the baseline for being a serious contender is making the WS, then there are only five teams out of 30 that fit the criteria. I don't think the other 25 teams are just out here goofing around. As far as CS spots go you've got HOU (5), LAD (4), ATL (2), BOS (2), NYY (2), TBR (1), WAS (1), STL (1), CHC (1) and MIL (1). So only five teams with more WS appearances and only five teams with more CS appearances than the Brewers over the last five years.
  15. sveumrules
    7th most wins in MLB & thee most wins in the NLC over the last half decade & that's without even being serious about contending? Pretty impressive. Makes me feel even worse for teams like the Blue Jays (Springer), Twins (Donaldson), Angels (Rendon), Phillies (Harper, JTR), Cubs (Heyward), Reds (Castellanos, Moose), and Padres (Hosmer, Machado) who are out here being all serious about contending, spending on FA bats & still can't win more games than us. Not sure if the Mets count as trying or not since they traded for Lindor then signed him for 341 million before reaching FA, so I left them off the list.
  16. sveumrules
    Yelich has 165 games started & 722 PAs of average hitting (103 OPS+) since fouling a ball off his knee cap. Sure, one could characterize his struggles as lasting two years now, they have. One could also characterize them as lasting a sliver over one full season with multiple extenuating circumstances (knee cap, pandemic, back) sprinkled in. Looking at Christian's career arc there have essentially been four Yeliches so far... 2013-2015 | 1458 PAs | 771 OPS 2016-1h18 | 1711 PAs | 830 OPS 2h18-2019 | 874 PAs | 1140 OPS 2020-2021 | 722 PAs | 752 OPS Outside of maybe flashes here & there third Yelich is probably gone forever, but with fourth Yelich dipping below even first Yelich my prediction is that fifth Yelich rebounds to somewhere a little above second Yelich starting in 2022. If you think that sounds convoluted, trading Yelich's contract would be even more convoluted. Nobody hopes Christian stays the same, so all that's left to hope for is that he gets better or gets traded. The odds of him getting traded are essentially nil, so the odds of him getting better (slim as one may believe them to be) are still higher. I'll hope for that.
  17. sveumrules
    With all the deferrals JBJ is only getting paid 3.666 million in 2022, that shouldn't hinder the Brewers too much in their offseason pursuits. Offseason should be pretty straight forward. Get a couple two tree bats for the RF/1B/DH (hopefully) mix. I'm optimistic Stearns & company will figure out a way to get something interesting done.
  18. sveumrules
    Good summation, reilly. $26M only buys about 3 WAR though, so .280 & 20 HR is probably in the neighborhood of the break even point. Looking at young Yelich, something like his 2015...525 PAs | 118 OPS+ | +3 BSR | +7 FLD came out to 3.6 WAR. Drop that fielding closer to average & that's still right around 3 WAR. In 2018/19 he way overshot his projections, in 2020/21 he way undershot them. I'm going to guess his 2022 projections come in somewhere around that 118 OPS+ young Yelich posted in 2015. I'll also guess that 2022 Yelich beats that projection and comes in right around his career 132 OPS+. Even if that kind of rebound seems like crazy talk after 175 games of decidedly average play, its still much more likely than anyone wanting to acquire Yelich's contract & Christian also waiving his NTC to facilitate that transaction, so I'll hope for the former instead.
  19. sveumrules
    Good summation of needs & possible options that might be in the Brewers price range. I think they'll end up filling one spot via FA and the other via trading some minor league guys. Don't really see them dealing from the MLB pitching depth at all. Hader is only of interest to a contender & legit MLB bats are more valuable than closers, so I don't see much overlap there. Also don't see them moving an OF. Yelich has a full NTC, Cain still put up around 2 WAR despite the missed time which is perfectly reasonable for his salary & Bradley only gets paid a lil over 3 million next year with the deferrals so he's not killing the books & who is dealing for him in the first place after last year anyway? But before any of that we need a new CBA. Gonna be a long, boring offseason that probably won't even get started until sometime next year.
  20. sveumrules
    What about in Game 1 of the NLDS when he closed out a one run game to secure the victory? Or the three games in a row he finished up against the Mets to wrap up the division title at home? All four of those game were pretty recent & meaningful.
  21. sveumrules
    We had four postseason games this year. Hader saved the first one, wouldn't have mattered which inning(s) he pitched in the other two, and gave up go ahead HR in the last game. I don't really see how leveraging him for a multi inning role would have changed the 2021 postseason results at all.
  22. sveumrules
    Hader's performance & value were greater throwing 1 IP in a traditional closer's role this year than they were in his 2018-19 multi inning appearance fireman role... 2018: 55 G | 81 IP | 60 ERA- | 54 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | +3.30 WPA 2019: 61 G | 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.3 fWAR | +3.15 WPA 2021: 60 G | 58 IP | 29 ERA- | 39 FIP- | 3.4 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | +4.93 WPA To see if it was a net benefit to the team you'd have to see what the results down the line were for the bottom rung guy who ends up with those extra 20 innings. In 2018 Hader threw 14 IP in the 6th, 25 IP each in the 7th/8th and 11 IP in the 9th. In 2019 Hader threw 21 IP in the 8th and 48 IP in the 9th. The overwhelming majority of innings Hader might have covered in the past were instead covered by Williams & Boxberger, who were both pretty much nails for most of the season & finished 2nd (Williams +2.63) and 3rd (Boxberger +1.30) among Brewers relivers in Win Probability Added.
  23. sveumrules
    Hader's performance & value were greater throwing 1 IP in a traditional closer's role this year than they were in his 2018-19 multi inning appearance fireman role... 2018: 55 G | 81 IP | 60 ERA- | 54 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | +3.30 WPA 2019: 61 G | 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.3 fWAR | +3.15 WPA 2021: 60 G | 58 IP | 29 ERA- | 39 FIP- | 3.4 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | +4.93 WPA
  24. sveumrules
    Welcome to the Optimism Thread, turbo.
  25. sveumrules
    Which big expenditures have been disasters? Braun's contract was signed before Stearns & company got here. He put up 8 WAR for about 95 million once you account for the pandemic discount, not great value, but hardly a disaster, and even with Braun only contributing about 3.5 WAR over the last four years the Brewers still made the playoffs three of those years, missed by a game in the fourth and won the 10th most games in MLB over that stretch. Cain has put up 12 WAR so far for about 46 million with the pandemic discount, very good value for a Free Agent signing & the Brewers have won the 7th most games in MLB over that stretch making the postseason every year. The Yelich extension might look like a disaster, but it hasn't even started, so it hasn't really been a disaster. No other contract has contained enough money to really be disastrous. Even JBJs payments are so spread out that they shouldn't hinder financial flexibility much...2021 (3 million) 2022 (3.666 million) 2023 (3.167 million) 2024 (7.167 million) 2025 (7 million)
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