SoCalBrewfan

Sanders is one of those guys who's been a great free-agent bargain year after year, and while he often seems an afterthought, he's usually put up good value and even outhit some of the more publicized free agents in any given year. colbyjack among others have argued for picking him up several times in the last few years IIRC. Sadly, I think his string might have come to an end.

I hate the fact that we assume anyone can be turned into an outfielder. If that were the case, I'd expect that Prince or Overbay might have spent some time in left field, as some posters here proposed. Apparently the Brewers' optimism about position switches does have its limits... B: when we have a non-injury prone young OF who kills lefties already on the team for the same price? A: ...I assume your talking about Joe Dillon. I'd have guessed Kevin Mench, who is likely to be about the price of the previously-mentioned Sanders, and does indeed crush lefties.

Maybe I'm just rationalizing here, but right now I think that when it comes to the bullpen, they might well be better off with two $5M guys, or a $6M and a $4M, than they would be with Cordero at $10+M. Cordero is reliable, and he's one of the few guys I'd consider spending big closer bucks on, but the risk of that contract is considerable...four year big money deals for relievers are scary. Of course signing two lesser talents, say Dotel and a middle reliever, would also carry a lot of risk, but the risk is distributed somewhat. The responses above from the radio show are thus reassuring to me...a fear I have right now is that Melvin overreacts and does a Krivsky-esque deal for Chad Cordero or something. That's not to say that I think Chief's terrible (I like the guy and remember his Fullerton days)...just that he's overrated in part due to his pitcher-friendly home park (he already is prone to the long ball), and that the Nats will be asking for the moon for him.

That's an impressive ranking for a guy who was drafted last June. (Yeah, a college senior...still.) For example, Jordan Schafer is the Braves' top prospect, and he's a few slots below LaPorta. The guys ahead of him are among the best of the best: Maybin, Longoria, Travis Snider.

Interesting...in the recent past most teams would be likely to give up Winn for almost nothing just to get out from his contract. But this is the Giants, who aren't most teams, who are losing Bonds and his contract, and who frankly mystify me in many of their personnel priorities. I think Winn is still a very good defender, and likely to be adequate offensively...he fits the 'professional hitter' profile to some extent. I'd guess that they want major league talent or guys who are ready, rather than A-ball prospects, which probably means something from the pool including Bush, Capuano, Gwynn, though to my eyes they need hitters way more than they need pitchers or slick defenders. I'd guess that they'd love to have Bill Hall, and it seems to me his name came up elsewhere with respect to the Giants.

It should also be said that Jim / Mass is a big big old meany, and a crotchedy old fart, and that we love him, just like that crusty old great uncle who always smells like a mix of ben gay and brandy at the family reunion and scares the heck out of all the little kids. He's also way way older than me, by a whole five years or something... Whatever you do, don't mess with his lawn.

I think a lot could be accomplished with more clarity in thread titles....it would be nice to know if the Blalock thread refers to a proposal by a bf.net poster, a proposal by a media figure, or a 'genuine' trade rumor. (In this case it appears to be the second of the three.) That said, threads can and do morph from their original purpose, and often contain a mix of media rumors, fan speculation, and whatnot. (Some of us are very good at the whatnot.) The Santana thread, for example, seems to be a mix of those.

The Elias rankings are very old-school, with heavy emphasis on batting average, playing time, and counting stats. I believe they cover two years prior to the ranking...in that two years Braun put up about two thirds of a season, so it's not a surprise that he's behind a lot of players who are certainly not as good. I'm a bit surprised to see Jenkins not make the cut, but only a bit surprised.

The Elias rankings are very old-school, with heavy emphasis on batting average, playing time, and counting stats. I believe they cover two years prior to the ranking...in that two years Braun put up about two thirds of a season, so it's not a surprise that he's behind a lot of players who are certainly not as good. I'm a bit surprised to see Jenkins not make the cut, but only a bit surprised.

How odd is this? It's like the Brewers are saying--go ahead take whoever you want--none of them are very good. Brad Nelson? Geez. I think you're overreacting here. With the five guys who filed for free agency, there will now be additional 40-man roster spots for Pena et al. and I'd expect to see additional names added soon. Nelson was more urgent because he was eligible for minor league free agency. EDIT: With Cordero, King, Linebrink and Miller added to Koskie, that frees up four more roster spots, leaving the 40-man roster at somewhere between 32 and 34, depending on which site you believe. So there's plenty of room for minor leaguers.

Adding to this the comments from Melvin via Tom H in JS: That is consistent with the 'short leash' referred to above. It is also a public statement that Ned admits that he made mistakes with the pen. If Ned and his boss can agree to that, will the brewerfans?

There's still a very good chance that the Brewers' collapse will be overshadowed by the Mets or, better yet, the Cubs.

Apparently the hot rumor now is Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers for J. Santana. (Not Julio, of course.) Fascinating. Dunno if there's an extension for Santana as part of that deal...but that's some nice swag for the Twins, way better than two draft choices. Kemp just turned 23, has an OPS+ around 120, and looks like a potential stud, but he's been the center of some slagging by Dodgers vets most notably including Jeff Kent, and there are recent suggestions that he might be dealt this offseason. Kershaw is a 19 year old lefty who is one of the best pitching prospects around. Coletti of course comes from the Sabean regime in SF, and it's been surprising to see him go with the young players in LA this year. But the youngsters have outplayed the vets, and the local paper has lately stirred up a lot of, um, controversy surrounding the tensions between young and old players in the clubhouse.

It's fine in the abstract to say, 'we need to add a starting pitcher,' or 'get a leftfielder,' but it's important to know who's actually available. Cot's has a list that is usually pretty reliable. To me, there's a lot of catchers that might be worth an inquiry, but not so many starting pitchers. (It also looks to me like a bad year to be looking for infielders, unless you've got A-Rod money.) Similiarly, I see a number of decent CF, but the corner guys look old. And the relief pitching available doesn't floor me...many of the best guys are current or former Brewers. There are a few current or former closers, Mariano Rivera for example, but I hate the thought of shelling out big bucks for a Todd Jones or Jorge Julio type. There might well be non-tenders worth adding, too, but I'd guess that you're more likely to make a major addition via trade. Cot's free agent list

I really think my five year old son could beat Ned Yost in a game that requires planning ahead. I'm not even talking chess here...tic-tac-toe would do it. Reporter: Ned, didn't you see that the kid had two Os lined up along the bottom? Why'd you put your X in the center? Yost: I was in the flow of the game...you gotta take the center square when it's offered, especially on the road. I've won twice before when taking the center square.

The funny thing is the really old school would be every bullpen pitcher's role was to be ready to pitch whenever called on and there was a "stopper" who would be called on when it seemed like the game was on the line, whatever the inning might be. Why there is no criticism of the modern style of baseball management, where it is apparently believed that coming in in the 9th inning with the bottom of the order due up and no one on base is a higher pressure situation than coming in in the 7th with two on and the 3, 4, and 5 hitters coming up is beyond me. I more often hear the old school guy you describe referred to a the 'fireman,' who would come in when things were the grimmest. Many people believe that the save rule along with big free agent contracts have contributed to current usage patterns. The guy making the biggest bucks is the guy with the saves, so your best veteran reliever pouts if he pitches the 7th against the cleanup hitter with runners on, puts out the fire, and then a lesser pitcher mops up in the 8th and 9th and gets the save. The best situation for a team is when a great young pitcher comes up (or is acquired in a trade) and is installed as the setup man, where he often faces more dangerous situations than the closer. Then if you need to trade your closer, or lose him to free agency, you move the setup man into the closer role, and find a new young stud to put out fires. If you've got talent in the system, or an astute GM, that works great. The Brewers haven't developed many effective relievers for quite some time, though, so they've been prowling the waiver wire and scrap heap for these guys, and then eventually traded for Cordero. The youngsters in the system slotted for this role (Capellan, Sarfate, etc) haven't panned out, and we've paid a price for that.

My wild guess is that they'll go BPA with their own pick, which will probably mean a toolsy prep hitter or pitcher, but that something like half of their extra picks (if there are any) will be lower-risk pitchers...I could see the Crew with two to four college pitchers taken by the third round. Of course, they haven't gone that way of late, but I think that's in part because so many teams have emphasized college pitching, so that the best values to be had were in the prep ranks...and with relatively few high-level picks, they wanted to get as many potential impact talents as possible. If they do have extra picks, though, the risk shifts a bit, and there's some reason to attempt to shore up the middle- to upper-level pitching with a few college arms. That's particularly true if there's a fast-track college closer they could nab in the back of the 1st round and/or the sandwich picks.

That almost makes up for your darn little avatar bug, which is directly responsible for a large fingerprint on my monitor... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

You know, it's a baseball game...in the scheme of things it's just not that important. (Never mind the several thousand messages I've written here about baseball games.) Beside the fact that you will want to be there, and that fathers now typically serve as 'coaches' and supporting cast in the actual birthing room, you have to remember that there may be complications with the pregnancy and birth, and split-second medical decisions, with very serious consequences, that need to be made. I would have serious reservations about the character of someone who had the opportunity and means to be there but decided to miss the event in order to play baseball a thousand miles away. I suspect that this is one of the reasons that Mitch Stetter is on the roster.

We'll never know, but I wonder whether a WVa elimination would have put Laporta in Huntsville for the championship series.

Yeah, I was astonished to see the Brewers' odds up over 50%. Now it sounds like Duncan might be done for the season, so that 8% for St Louis might be a big over-estimate. While I've remained hopeful even through the bad times, I'm really surprised to see that the Crew is not only still in this, but should now be considered the favorite. Still many games to be played of course...playing well in PNC would go a long way toward convincing me, though (as though that matters...)

I hear so much stuff like "he's a players' manager!" or "he's a great clubhouse leader!" I do think those things are important, but I also think it's hard to pin down which managers make a difference due to qualities of that nature. Sometimes the authoritarian jerks get good performances out of guys, sometimes it's the laid-back nice guys. Sometimes it seems to work to switch from type A to type B (Rodgers --> Kuenn?). But then I wonder sometimes if it isn't like Nichols' law of catcher defense, where it is assumed that a catcher hitting .210 must be a great glove man...maybe it is just assumed that a tactical doofus must be a winning personality behind closed doors.

While it should matter to some extent, the records of opponents might make less a difference in a three week stretch than one thinks. The Brewers seem to have an annoying ability to play up or down to the level of their opponents, particularly the ones in the division. Plus teams can be very different in the last couple of weeks, as poor teams play rookies with something to play for over veterans playing out the string, and teams already in the playoffs let up considerably and rest their stars. I think the Cubs might have it a little easier, but it's pretty close. It's gonna be interesting to see the race...there must be a decent chance statistically that one of the three has a perfectly-timed winning streak and coasts in, but I don't know which of these teams has the pitching lined up to do that. Milwaukee might be hot at just the right time, while the Cubs are regressing, but I don't trust those kind of trends to last.

Well, he still has a live arm. The Brewers have seen him up close and obviously feel that his weaknesses outweight what he can do. A new org, on the other hand, is sure to think they can fix Sarfate up with a little spit and elbow grease. Can't teach velocity, or so the saying goes. I wish Dennis well even though it didn't work out here...

the ptbnl is gonna be someone ike kenny holmberg...or a low level starting pitcher...i wouldnt expect it to be anyone of great value Seems to me they usually agree to a list of four or five guys, and then give the other team some time to make a choice. I'd guess an A-ball pitcher, or maybe one of the lo-A outfielders?