SoCalBrewfan

A transcendent player in the 60s and 70s. For me, though, who really starting paying attention to baseball in 78 or so, it's hard not to remember the late-career Rose. He wasn't helping his team the last couple years, the manager* seemingly just put him in for the sake of progress toward the all-time hit record. It seemed pretty gross to me. The incessant ads for gambling on sports in 2024 (which are admittedly super gross and hypocritical and make me enjoy the experience less) don't change the fact that Rose knew the rules, at the time it was the one bright line you must not cross. *When Pete Rose broke the record, Pete Rose was also the manager. Maybe his head was inflated enough to convince himself that he was helping the team?

More than the rankings, which clearly have huge error bars, what's interesting is that these seem like different kinds of players than we've seen the Brewers prioritize in recent IFA classes. The top two guys are 45 hit 50 power if I'm reading right, and I feel like they had in the recent past been prioritizing hit over power, at least with their top few signings. Sure, there have been some guys who were projected with power even at age 16 (Made or Severino, for example), but often their top three or four guys include a few 50/30-40 types like Lara, Guilarte, di Turi. Even Chourio was rated 55 hit / 50 power at signing, which might also just tell us how not-seriously to take those numbers... (Actually, as I look, di Turi was rated 50 power at the time of his signing, and Johan Berrios was a 55, so maybe just take all these ratings with a really large chunk of salt?) Also, yeah, IFA pitchers are really challenging to project and develop, particularly given the timeline. You sign a kid at sixteen, and it's really difficult to develop and build up innings while avoiding injuries, and then you have to make 40-man roster decisions by the time US kids are college sophomores or so. See, for example, Yujanyer Herrera, a kid I like who is now sadly exiled to the Rockies system. I think these guys are never going to be in the top 50 pre-signing lists, but the Brewers have had some minor successes there.

I believe it's true that he doesn't burn the option if he spends fewer than 20 days in the minors? It's quite possible that this is a bit of roster shenanigans until the next inevitable IL stint. I don't think this means they are moving on from Peguero who is still a good bet to be on the playoff roster and is still pre-arby with yet another option if needed. Still feels like a tough call or three yet to come; do you put Milner on waivers, for example? (Would presumably have to activate him from IL first.) Then again, while I'm sure some would like that, I don't think the team moves on so quickly from relievers as some fans; remember many were ready to DFA Payamps at one point and he's been quite effective of late. Spots on the 26 seem momentarily tougher than the 40 but that is also an issue. They can still move Yeli to the 60 day IL for one spot on the 40, and Ross seems a likely DFA at some point, but seems like they are serious about adding one or more of Misio, Yoho, maybe even Logan Henderson, in addition to activating Paredes? (Henderson may be a longshot but unlike the others this is year to be added or be Rule 5 eligible, and if they add him and keep him on the roster they don't burn an option this year. Either Misio or Yoho are likely to be impactful in the 'pen but both have more forgiving Rule 5 clocks.)

Possibly they move the extra starters to the pen taking the place of BWilson and Joe Ross, who are valuable length options during the regular season but less likely to make a playoff roster. (Assuming Ross even lasts that long.) Neither Montas nor Civale have much experience relieving at the big league level, of course...

I'm pretty bullish on next year, much moreso than I was for this year. We will lose Adames, and Yelich is hard to predict, but most of the key position players are at an age where improvement is to be expected. They won't all take steps forward, but the smart money is on collective improvement and there's still depth in the outfield. We should continue to be an excellent defense though there are some questions to be answered in the infield and the upper level prospects there all have potential issues. The pitching staff also has the potential to see an influx of younger talent from the likes of Gasser, Misio, Yoho, Logan Henderson, maybe even Shane Smith or one of the Ws (Woessner, Wichrowski). Mears looks like he could be a really good add. As well, it's not unreasonable to hope for better from DL Hall, Uribe, Carlos F Rodriguez. Getting something from Woody? Who knows, but a fella can hope.

I believe the knee injury was in response to what I wrote, another factor for why Wiemer hasn't had a normal development track the last two years, and why assessing his future value is more challenging than a simple read of his stat line might suggest.

Competitive as in fighting for a playoff spot, yes. Did they anticipate being a game and a half from a first round bye at the trade deadline, looking down at the Braves and way down at the Cardinals and Cubs? Maybe, but I doubt it. Thus, 'never anticipated being so competitive.' Their actions are intermediate, as usual, neither 'all in' nor 'this ain't our year.' Again, that impression changes if they spend big for Flaherty or Crochet today. For now, Civale, Montas and Mears (plus Jay I suppose) is a, hey, cool, we are surprisingly good with some gaps, let's ride it but not give up too much of the future.

Am I remembering right that Quero was brought up when discussing Corobo's signing? He's been overshadowed a bit but this sure has the feel of a Quero box score...

Should it come to pass, Misiorowski in the big league pen would not mean they have given up on him as a starter. His innings will be a constraint no matter what, and he is already past his career high. With 70 last year, they're likely targeting 120 as a hard cap, maybe even fewer? Two starts in AAA gets him to about 90 and then 20-30 big league innings out of the pen? Remember, too, that the Brewers have done this before. Burnes and Woody out of the pen in 2018 was not only successful but a glimpse of better things to come.

Well, the Brewers need innings. They don't care as much about first half ERA as most fans, and Montas has in the past been an effective starter. Did I mention innings yet? Wiemer was put into a big league role last year earlier than anticipated (like Turang) and between that and his swing revamp, his development has been derailed and delayed while he's burned two options already. I still think he has a decent chance of being a productive player, his defense gives him a solid floor, but he is a bit redundant for the Brewers. Cincy should be a good (hometown?) fit for him, and I wish him well. Don't love the deal, but I guess the inflated market for pitching made them pivot a bit...after reports of Fedde and Flaherty, Montas is a much lower and cheaper tier. In some ways I feel like this year is gravy, they never anticipated being so competitive, and they have been holding pieces in anticipation of their window being '25 and beyond. Maybe there's still a bigger deal to come, but I expect more fiddling at the edges.

Well, drat. I wonder how they respond if he's out for the season; replacing that production will not come easily and might not be possible. Jesse Winker reunion tour?

I suspect that this is similar to the approach they take to international signings. Rather than sinking all their funds into a Gilbert Lara boom or bust type, they distribute the risk among several second tier players and hope that one of them turns into Jackson Chourio. Given the volatility of both HS pitching and 16 year old free agents, these seem like wise choices. (it's bites at the apple, all the way down) That said, as much promise as there is in this approach, the HS pitcher demographic still carries a lot of risk and there's a significant chance that we look back at these picks the way we presently look at, say, Jake Gatewood and Kodi Medeiros from 2014. Presumably they felt that the industry has moved too far and the expectation value of these risky picks is better than other teams recognize.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/ponceda01.shtml

Rounds 3 and 8 are college seniors so will likely be way underslot. I suspect some of the other college guys from day 2 will also be under 100k, as mentioned above. Hard to guess these things of course, but history suggests they will certainly sign all day 1 and 2 guys and still have a good warchest for day 3.

I think teams tend to take a longer view of ability and performance than some fans do, especially with relievers. Just to continue with Chafin, plenty of Brewer fans seem to hold him up as an example of a completely valueless pitcher...but he's had a pretty solid first half with Detroit and is likely to draw interest from contenders and get the Tigers something at the deadline. (Also, paying a $725K buyout is not much of a hardship, just as the remainder of Milner's contract is unlikely to be much of a deterrent for any team except perhaps the As.) Reliever performance is volatile and samples are small, and teams feel like they can fix things and/or get lucky. This will especially be true of Brewers-like orgs that are trying to improve on a budget, so will prefer to pay Walmart prices for a questionable reliever with a bad first half but some track record of success, rather than emptying their system for Mason Miller. Is a team going to just look up first half stats for Payamps or Milner and decide they are trash, or are they going to look at scouting and long-term track records and see some value there? As an example (not a good one for us), the Brewers traded for Daniel Norris at the deadline in 2021 despite his ERA of 5.89. His FIP was 3.30 and I'm sure the Brewers considered that and/or thought they could do what they did with Drew Pomeranz, who had an ERA of 5.68 as a Giants starter but was great down the stretch in the Brewers bullpen. (Notably, Pomeranz parlayed that into a multiyear deal from the Padres.) Taylor Rogers looked pretty bad in Milwaukee, after a middling first half in San Diego, but he also got a multiyear deal afterwards and has pitched well in San Francisco. A year or half season of poor performance by a reliever doesn't necessarily mean they are cooked or will have no value. Also, the Brewers did some roster cleanup last years' deadline (Urias, Jackson) that was peripheral to the 'big' deals (e.g., Canha and Santana), so it's hardly a laughable suggestion that they would do so this year as well. Milner probably doesn't have much value to a rebuilding team, but it's not hard to see him dealt to a contender looking for LH relief help, either in a multi team deal or as a side trade to get some non-40 roster depth. The Brewers tend to try to squeeze maximal value out of their roster so I could see them picking up some lottery tickets or upper-minors pitching depth as they realign the roster. Hard to guess, of course, they generally manage to surprise me, for better or worse.

It might not be until day three that they spend whatever they have saved; it's a delicate dance because they don't want to risk losing the slot money if someone won't sign. Last year a lot of their extra money went to day three picks, who don't bring that risk.

I kept reading that this year's draft had a particular shape of talent distribution; top ten or so guys and then a big muddle where there wasn't necessarily much of a gap between, say, number 18 and number 60. If you believe that, how would you proceed? Pay slot money at 17 for a guy who is not a lot better than the guy you like who is ranked in the 60s? What the Brewers did is an exceptionally rational strategy given that premise. Seems like folks didn't understand that...many of the objections to the first picks seem to be based on the assumption that the player ranked 18 is objectively and unambiguously a lot better or more valuable than the player ranked 60. As plenty of folks have pointed out, 'best player available' is a much more complicated proposition in the MLB draft than, say in, the NFL. That said, there is clearly risk in their strategy too. An astonishingly good 2023 draft is no guarantee that they'll hit as frequently this time around. It takes a lot of luck and good information for a board to fall the way you want, and other teams are actively trying to beat you. The only sensible approach as a fan, with the limited information we have available, is to try to understand what they're doing and enjoy the ride. If you want to dream on Payne, maybe Carl Crawford is what you hope for? Never more than mid teens home runs but good average, lots of doubles and triples, defense, base running makes for a valuable package. At 6'2" with wide receiver comps, he's not a Dylan O'Rae, and he's young enough that you might expect more strength. Incidentally, none of the four picks are little guys by baseball standards, which might be a change in approach?

I really feel like the tone of brewer fan discussions is worse than in the old days. Makes me sad, makes me post and read a lot less. The article framing, or maybe just its headline, are odd, to me at least. 'Need to' is not the question at all, it's rather is a trade worth it given that the contract will be widely perceived to have significant negative value and might frankly be at an all time low given the remaining years. It will cost a bunch of money and/or assets to unload that contract, assumings it's even possible to do so.

So much drama, folks, over what is a pretty minor and likely at most complementary acquisition. To me, Perkins might most resemble Keon Broxton...not physically but in terms of role. Broxton was never a build around guy, but his CF defense and speed gave him a moderately valuable profile despite his below average 736 ops as a Brewer. Broxton managed 4.3 bWAR over 270 games in three seasons, and even after Lo Cain was signed Broxton had positive WAR in a season in which he hit .179. That's not to say that Perkins is guaranteed to have any value, just that he might be able to fill the same sort of role and can have value as a complementary piece or platoon partner even if he doesn't hit much. It's seems unlikely that all of the rookie OF types will find success, so spreading the risk by having multiple options has value, as does having a complementary piece with defensive value, whom you don't mind optioning or promoting based on the performance of more central talents. Also, who would be surprised to see Perkins DFA out of the blue as part of a bigger deal? It's not like the bottom of the 40 man roster is filled with irreplaceable excellence right now. Unexpected MLB contracts as incentive seem to be a thing, even Shelby Miller just signed one with the Dodgers despite throwing 7 major league innings last year.

We all like to pretend we know a lot about the minors, etc., but most of us are relying on reports filtered through several sources. Teams have a vested interest in inflating value of their prospects and keeping cards close to the vest. You see fans, say, who get crazy because the Brewers pick a guy at 27 who was ranked 68 by MLB.com. As though the publicly available ranking is the truth, and the team is a bunch of keystone cops who can't shoot straight. Heck, the Brewers third rounder was not rated. But if anyone's information is lacking, it's likely to be the media...on draft day they admitted as much, saying they don't know as much as the teams.

Lamet claimed by Rockies. That sounds like the place for him to figure out what's ailing him.

Just off the top of my head, at least two Brewers-drafted hitters have made recent all-star games with other teams: Mitch Haninger (SEA via AZ), Garrett Cooper (MIA); Trent Grisham (SDP) likely deserved to go as well. As to the main question, I think the system is really weak for making big deadline deals, particularly if some key names are off limits. Chourio should be in that category IMO, but it seems like they also have near-term big league plans/needs for both Turang and Frelick. Maybe they move one of Mitchell or Wiemer if they can get a bat with some control (not a rental)? Small is off limits for some, but I have to wonder how much the Brewers think of him if they gave so many starts to Chi Chi and Alexander. I wouldn't be surprised to see him dealt. We've recently dealt from medium tier IF and pitching surpluses, but that depth is already depleted and some of the guys they might have used have been hurt and/or ineffective: Zamora, Black, Bullock, Floyd. The pitching someone else might want is mostly far from MLB, guys like Jarvis, Kelly, Carlos F Rodriguez. Maybe Knarr and Shook will get some looks, particularly if the Brewers' rep of spotting pitching talent carries some weight. Cam Devanney and Felix Valerio are IF who might have some value and though I'd be a bit sad to lose Valerio, you could argue that we have a number of 2b types. This might be the year Lutz is dealt; his numbers are on the upswing (heh) but he seems to have been passed by and will soon need to be added to the 40 man roster. And that's actually a pretty important note; a bunch of second and third tier prospects will be Rule 5 eligible this offseason if not added....there are way too many to protect, so they are prime candidates for deals. Not all of these guys would stick on a major league roster, but the teams selling often have deep needs for talent and can afford the 40-man slots. Some names on that list (from the excellent post below) that might have some value include RHP Bettinger, File, Lazar, Jarvis, Vasssallotti, Castaneda, Puello, Cam Robinson, (Abner Uribe injured) LHP Kelly IF Devanney, Valerio, Holt, Garcia (!?) OF Lutz, Joe Gray JR, (Bello, Ward injured) Kelly and Valerio are most likely to be protected I think. Garcia being on here and so far from the bigs makes him maybe a stronger candidate than I would have thought for a trade, though I think the team thinks pretty highly of him.

Just off the top of my head, at least two Brewers-drafted hitters have made recent all-star games with other teams: Mitch Haninger (SEA via AZ), Garrett Cooper (MIA); Trent Grisham (SDP) likely deserved to go as well. As to the main question, I think the system is really weak for making big deadline deals, particularly if some key names are off limits. Chourio should be in that category IMO, but it seems like they also have near-term big league plans/needs for both Turang and Frelick. Maybe they move one of Mitchell or Wiemer if they can get a bat with some control (not a rental)? Small is off limits for some, but I have to wonder how much the Brewers think of him if they gave so many starts to Chi Chi and Alexander. I wouldn't be surprised to see him dealt. We've recently dealt from medium tier IF and pitching surpluses, but that depth is already depleted and some of the guys they might have used have been hurt and/or ineffective: Zamora, Black, Bullock, Floyd. The pitching someone else might want is mostly far from MLB, guys like Jarvis, Kelly, Carlos F Rodriguez. Maybe Knarr and Shook will get some looks, particularly if the Brewers' rep of spotting pitching talent carries some weight. Cam Devanney and Felix Valerio are IF who might have some value and though I'd be a bit sad to lose Valerio, you could argue that we have a number of 2b types. This might be the year Lutz is dealt; his numbers are on the upswing (heh) but he seems to have been passed by and will soon need to be added to the 40 man roster. And that's actually a pretty important note; a bunch of second and third tier prospects will be Rule 5 eligible this offseason if not added....there are way too many to protect, so they are prime candidates for deals. Not all of these guys would stick on a major league roster, but the teams selling often have deep needs for talent and can afford the 40-man slots. Some names on that list (from the excellent post below) that might have some value include RHP Bettinger, File, Lazar, Jarvis, Vasssallotti, Castaneda, Puello, Cam Robinson, (Abner Uribe injured) LHP Kelly IF Devanney, Valerio, Holt, Garcia (!?) OF Lutz, Joe Gray JR, (Bello, Ward injured) Kelly and Valerio are most likely to be protected I think. Garcia being on here and so far from the bigs makes him maybe a stronger candidate than I would have thought for a trade, though I think the team thinks pretty highly of him.

Harrison was a guy with tools and so his breakout came as he put the ball in play enough that it looked like he was putting it all together. All three of the position players in our end of the trade were legit top 100 prospects at one time or another, but arguably not all at the same time. There was a good reason this trade stung brewers prospect lovers at the time...that was a lot of perceived value. That said, they all had that Brewers prospect profile that we see now and again where the other tools are there but making contact seems to come and go. See also Corey Ray. If it all comes together and there's enough contact, those other tools means you can have a heckuva player on your hands, even with 150+ strikeouts. But it's pretty hard to put up 215 Ks like Harrison did in AA and still have plus offensive value. Not impossible, mind you, just really hard. In that sense you could argue that the risk / reward profile for the marlins was extreme. All three of those hitters had the possibility to be really good players, but also the significant possibility of struggling to reach the uecker line. Did Stearns secretly sigh relief getting value for three such risky players? Or was he sure that he was giving up a future all star? I suppose we'll never know.

Harrison was a guy with tools and so his breakout came as he put the ball in play enough that it looked like he was putting it all together. All three of the position players in our end of the trade were legit top 100 prospects at one time or another, but arguably not all at the same time. There was a good reason this trade stung brewers prospect lovers at the time...that was a lot of perceived value. That said, they all had that Brewers prospect profile that we see now and again where the other tools are there but making contact seems to come and go. See also Corey Ray. If it all comes together and there's enough contact, those other tools means you can have a heckuva player on your hands, even with 150+ strikeouts. But it's pretty hard to put up 215 Ks like Harrison did in AA and still have plus offensive value. Not impossible, mind you, just really hard. In that sense you could argue that the risk / reward profile for the marlins was extreme. All three of those hitters had the possibility to be really good players, but also the significant possibility of struggling to reach the uecker line. Did Stearns secretly sigh relief getting value for three such risky players? Or was he sure that he was giving up a future all star? I suppose we'll never know.