SoCalBrewfan

A quick post, as I'm barely back in town yet and haven't caught up with everything. Here's the link to the ERA+ numbers referenced above, and the results. www.baseballthinkfactory....ion/44951/ It's essentially very similar information (as it should be, whenever you normalize), showing that a league-average ERA is somewhere between a #2 and #3 starter.

I think that teams have moved so far in the college direction, perhaps due to Moneyball and the success of the As, but also due to a short-term philosophy, that there are tremendous bargains to be had in prep players. Teams like the Braves and Dodgers have cleaned up later in the 1st round and in the supplementals for that reason...the Mets and Twins, too, to some extent. Even the As went that way last year, perhaps for that very reason. Of course each of those teams also have multiple high picks most years, so they can spread the risk among several prep picks and still get something out of a draft even if there are a couple of busts. When you're picking at 5 or 7, though, I think the calculus needs to be a bit different, particularly if you're a team without multiple picks in the first two rounds. Throwing away a pick is all that much more painful when you are passing on some very good talents and also have to wait forty or fifty slots before you get another. Thus I am happier with the Jeffress pick than I was with Rogers.

Well, I'll disagree a little bit, with the premise if not the specifics. If a player is a very good percentage base stealer and prolific as well, and if he's a great defender, a speed player can be very valuable even if he has a 750 OPS. A guy like Ichiro is a good example...this year his OPS was 'only' 786 but he had 45/2 SB/CS and incredible defense in a key defensive position. He was probably one of the top outfielders in the league despite an OPS that isn't incredible, because he's off-the-charts good in exactly the things that OPS doesn't measure and because OPS overvalues OBP relative to SLG. That said, neither Pierre nor Crisp fall in that category, IMO.

From that Rosenthal column, it sounds like Suppan wants 4/$44M. Considering what Meche got, that's peanuts in this market, for all that it might blow up in a couple years.

Yuk. Mark Hendrickson would make everyone here very nostalgic for Doug Davis. Or even for Ben Hendrickson. I really don't see him as an improvement on the pool of #5 starters...Tampa was really smart to cash in his fluky hot streak. For all Lieber's issues, I think he's more likely to be close to a league average pitcher next year.

You'd need a pitcher or three after that, but I'd do it. And wouldn't that be sweet to know that Danny Kolb and Wayne Franklin eventually turned into Baldelli?

Hmmm. Remember that the Brewer medical staff could easily ensure that he never passed Hammerin' Hank...

Yeah, obviously you need to take things with a grain of salt, and recognize the limitations of the systems. Projection systems are ill-equipped to identify something like the gain Bill Hall made two years ago. Still, all told they tend to be reasonably effective, at least for hitters. Here's a discussion of projections, including ZiPS, at THT...part 5 has links to the previous 4: www.hardballtimes.com/mai...rt-1-of-5/ www.hardballtimes.com/mai...le-part-5/ Tango says in part 1: My pre-initial statement was that the Marcels gives you an regression coefficient ® of .65, and the maximum you can reach is .75. The sophisticated engines get you to .70. I don't think anyone refutes that. (All for hitters.) So it's not exactly throwing darts...and there's many baseball transactions that seem to defy the premise that the progression of a player's talent is at least somewhat predictable, particularly when you speak of established veteran hitters. The nice thing about ZiPS and Marcel is that they made available for free, and not a lot worse than the systems that aren't.

Do you have a reference for that? I haven't seen anything suggesting that ZiPS is terrible, though I freely admit that I might have missed something. The comparisons I'd seen had ZiPS in the middle of the pack...though IIRC Marcel was about as good as anything fancier, for those players with a major league track record at least. Most systems have trouble with pitching, from everything I've seen. ZiPS freely admits that it doesn't really attempt to project playing time, so I'm not sure what you mean by the second statement.

ZiPS are decent, as much as any projection system can be. My sense is that they are way off on minor league pitchers a lot of the time...that's not terribly surprising I guess. But Hendrickson, for one example we know and love, did not do anything close to his ZiPS projections. They do make certain assumptions, particularly with respect to BABIP. The pitching projections this year are actually pretty nice for our guys...I don't know what they're figuring for the Brewers defense but last year's was not so hot... Meanwhile, I'd take the over on Hall, the under on Mench.

He'd make sense in Baltimore, They're thinking of Scott Stewart the relief pitcher, aren't they? Though I guess 'make sense' means something different in Baltimore than it does in most of the rest of MLB.

I can't believe the Pirates aren't all over Stewart. Yuk.

What does a bidding war for Craig Counsell look like? Prolly like the battle for the last piece of pumpkin pie after thanksgiving dinner in the oh-so-polite midwest: Melvin: It's OK Kevin, you can have it. Towers: No, I think I'm ok. Melvin: Are you sure? I don't really need to have it. Towers: Well, if you really didn't want it, I'd eat it, but only if you really didn't want it. Melvin: Oh, if you want it, you should have it. I would only take it if you really didn't want it. Towers: It's probably better if you take it. etc.

That would be delightful. Though somehow I have a hunch that Ned Yost would then insist on having three catchers, so he can pinch-hit with Rivera or Zaun and still have a catcher on the bench Just In Case.

What's a World Series worth on the balance sheet? They say a pennant hangs forever. Then again, they also say that a really bad contract comes darn close...ask the Rockies about Mike Hampton or Denny Neagle.

Argh...I always do that. Yes, nine figures. To think I get paid to teach people scientific notation...which come to think of it is oddly useful when it comes to major league contracts. (And is surely part of the problem here...100,000,000 is 10^8 after all.)

Carlos should just take a weeklong vacation...by December someone will have offered a seventh year and eight figures.

Two quotes on Braun, one from the article and one from the chat: And from the chat: That's a pretty consistent signal...not that Braun couldn't be a decent defender at third in time, but that while his bat is ready in the very near future, his glove is not close. I think that it's very unlikely that Braun is a 3b in Milwaukee in 2007...but it does suggest that he could probably hit in the bigs some time in 07 were he to play LF or CF. So what do they do...stick with him at third and give him the whole year in AAA, or start giving him reps in the outfield? Sticking at third might mean a more valuable player down the road, but it might also mean additional delays in his big league appearance.

If they're talking about Olsen, Johnson, or Nolasco, the analogous Brewers (established pre-FA pitchers) are Capuano and Bush, who have less value than the corresponding Marlins IMO. So would you give up Capuano and a nugget? Or Bush + Inman? Getting Crawford or Baldelli would be cool, but the guys you give up are going to hurt...a mix-n-match AAA grab bag ain't gonna do it. FLA has pitching to burn, so they match up well. The Brewers would miss anyone they traded much more in the short term. Similarly, it would be sweet to get some of that Marlin pitching, but it's not going to come cheaply.

For some perspective, some Brewers pitchers and their peak position in the BA Top 100...warning as it's a sobering list in some ways: Narciso Elvira, #23 (1991) Angel Miranda, #81 (1991) Cal Eldred, #85 (1992) Tyrone Hill, #10 (1993) Jeff D'Amico, #25 (1996) Valerio DelosSantos, #52 (1997) Ben Sheets, #5 (2001) Nick Neugebauer, #17 in 2002 Mike Jones, #56 in 2003 Ben Hendrickson, #90 in 2003 Manny Parra, #69 in 2004 Jose Capellan, #25 in 2005 Mark Rogers, #44 in 2006 While Neugie was a high-ceiling guy, and led the minors in K/9, his control was always something to wonder about, and even BA who values ceiling above all else had some questions about him. (In 2002 he was the sixth-ranked pitching prospect on the list behind Beckett, Prior, Juan Cruz, Ryan Anderson, and Dennis Tankersley.) Ben Sheets and Tyrone HIll were considered better prospects in their respective days, and Elvira, D'Amico and Capellan could be considered to be similarly ranked to Neugie, though for different reasons. I think Yo will be in the same range this spring. Gallardo is almost universally regarded as a notch below the best pitching prospects in the minors, and he won't unseat Sheets as the top-rated guy ever, or even beat Tyrone Hill in all likelihood. I'd be very surprised if Yo is not in the top 25, but at the same time I predict Brewerfan will be unhappy with his spot on the BA top 100. (See the BA link below for one person's ranking of prospects by position...Yo is listed as the fifth-best RHP, behind Hughes, Bailey, Hochevar, and Lincecum. Mark Rogers is 20th on that list and Inman is not mentioned.) www.baseballamerica.com/o...62606.html

Link here (indirect because Washington Post is reg. req.) says Soriano is asking for something like the 7 / $119M that Beltran got (that's $17M/year average). Yeah, you have to let some air out of that balloon after negotiations, but I think it's fair to say that he'd laugh at 3/$45M. That or just walk out shaking his head. www.baseballthinkfactory....payday_rr/

It is incumbent upon every member to post here, to stand up and be counted! For this is thread for the ages! Let your name be written here! Soy un perdidor! Can I get a witness? Hm. Need some ALL CAPS!!!111

Sigh...I remember the good old days when Ray King was a uniter, not a divider. Too bad that a guy named Ray King wasn't a hitter, though...rayking is what the hitters did when ol' Burger was pitching this year.

The Twins once wanted Mench, the story goes. Though his value's low, they might well still have interest. They've got young pitching to spare, though that typically commands a premium in the market...I wonder whether they've lost interest in Scott Baker, or would be willing to part with another of their secondary guys for a power bat. Of course they've exercised Hunter's option, so that might limit their ability to take on contracts like Jenkins.

Some defensive metrics (and firsthand observation) suggest that Arod has regressed defensively, so that he's not a lock to even remain at third. And there's something wrong in his head...NY has kicked him in the rear of late. That said, you find a place for him, and if it costs Bill Hall, well, I've loved having BIll Hall around, and I'll wish him well, but Bill Hall's best year looks like Arod's worst season.