SoCalBrewfan

This bases loaded thing I do have a problem with, however.

Speaking of range factor, Geoff Jenkins has posted the highest RF of his career so far. It's 2.36 this year as compared to 1.93 and 1.78 the last two years. Now, has Jenkins improved his range? (Sure, he was a LF before this year...I've not seen a systematic difference for LF vs. RF unless there are park factors or pitching staff effects in play.) Hall's RF at short this year is lower than his RF at short last year. The same is true of his RF at 3b. His RF at 2b is slightly higher. (Some of those comparison are small #s of innings, but the SS numbers are 300+ innings each year). Branyan's RF at 3b for Milwaukee this year is quite a bit lower than 04 (2.48 vs. 3.14 last year). Without having detailed spray charts, that's suggestive that there might very well be fewer ground balls going to the left side of the infield than was the case last year...for whatever reason. And that there may be more flyballs going to RF. Something to keep in mind when looking at range factors... For whatever it's worth, the baseballprospectus.com stats are based on the same raw numbers as range factor (i.e., no play-by-play data) but take park and staff effects into account, and have Hardy just 2% below average.

I would suggest going to the "My Control Center" thing, clicking on "Account Preferences", and changing the "Number of Replies Per Page" to a huge number. I believe mine is set at 10,000. This way you don't have to read through pages and pages of posts, it also cuts down of page views. Nice tip. Why didn't I do that a long time ago? Sigh. Maybe someday I'll even get one of those signature things all the kids have these days...

Actually his best season was in A ball. See for yourself. Even if High Desert were a neutral park that would be incorrect...his OBP and SLG are better in Huntsville '03 as well as Indy '04. Given that High Desert plays in the class A version of Coors Field, your claim is all the more wrong. Treego, I think many people have made posts supporting elements of your claims...but you're really going beyond what the facts can support. Even the title is a stretch...it's not Hardy's range that is the worst in MLB, it's that his Range Factor is the lowest. That's a very different creature. I may be way off here, but the same facts presented in a less confrontational way might get a better reception. (Then again, this is a fast-growing thread, and maybe the way to get attention is to take extreme positions.)

I think Hall is most valuable, in the abstract at least, as a SS, because he is at least average defensively there and outhits nearly everyone at the position by a mile. On a team without an elite SS prospect like Hardy, which is to say most of the teams in MLB, he'd surely be the SS of the present as well as the future. That said, it's at least possible that the best Brewers team going forward may have Hardy and Hall in the middle IF and Weeks in CF (by that I mean ~2 years out, by which time Braun ought to be knocking on the door). It may be that Hall at SS, Hardy at 2B is the better alignment there, but I think it's probably too close to call. I'm not ready to give up on Weeks at 2b defensively, but he does have some learning to do.

Offensively, as a SS, J.J.'s been above average on the season, he's been well above average since May 23rd (when he was benched to work in the cage), he's been further above average since the All Star Break, and he's been even more above average in the last month. I might be misreading, but I see Hardy as below average at SS for the season...all your other points are correct though. www.baseballprospectus.co...jj01.shtml Going forward, Hardy is likely to be the more valuable commodity, since he's younger, has quite a bit less service time, and, given normal career paths for both guys, is likely to have a stronger prime. That said, I think it's possible to see Hardy as the shortstop of the future, but still recognize the value of Hall, and even admit the very strong possibility that Hall is the better shortstop, all things considered, right now. Also, I think it's extremely likely that the team would have a better record had Hall started the year at SS ahead of Hardy...we might well have even been closer to the Wild Card race. Hardy was just awful for half a season, and cost the team a lot offensively. Still, it's not clear that it would have been better for the team long-term...I think Hardy's learned from his experiences in a way that he might not have in Nashville, and it's obvious to everyone that he has in fact been chosen as the SS of the future.

Though it's been more than a month that Hardy has hit well, compare the two since the ASB: Hall (205 AB): .273/.321/.405, 3 HR, 48 K/15 BB Hardy (153 AB): .301/.361/.490, 6 HR, 18 K/14 BB I have to say that looks like you're choosing an arbitrary endpoint just because it supports your conclusion. While I think it's fair to say that Hardy is a better hitter going forward than his first 200 plate appearances this year would suggest, it's also reasonable to be cautious about his abilities and not assume that he's as good as his last 180. Similarly, Hall hasn't looked as good as he did in his best two months, but seems to have taken a step forward from what we was last year.

SoCal, Hall ranks slightly ahead of Hardy at SS in some of the Baseball Prospectus defensive stats (Runs above replacement, runs above average, Rate, Rate2). It's not by enough to matter much; they're within 10 runs (1 win) of each other per 100 games. Thanks...that's consistent with what I remember having seen, but I'm glad to see independent corroboration. My sense of the statistical analyses I've seen is that, if anything, Hall has a small edge defensively. Incidentally, someone above asserted that Hall had a poor defensive reputation in the past. That's not completely true...he's always made a fair number of errors, but was known for having good range and arm. In the 2002 BA survey of the Brewers minors, they had the following "Best Tools:" Best defensive infielder: Bill Hall Best Infield arm: JJ Hardy Usually the first category is code for 'range' since many minor league IF make lots of errors...that is despite two years of 40 and 45 errors...in the scouting report Hall's range is described as 'great' and it's said that 'he gets to balls other shortstops don't, but he has to learn when to eat the ball and when to attempt a fabuous double play.' Hall was also judged as having the 'best infield arm' in the 2001 report (Scarborough was best defensive IF). The following year, Hardy got both 'awards' though Hall was still in the minors. Hardy was described in 02 as having 'great arm and range.' But the 03 scouting report says 'he's not exceptionally quick...his keen instincts allow him to get good jumps on balls.' (The 04 has the same phrase 'not exceptionally quick'...recycling is good, Mr. Haudricourt.) Hardy's always been described as having good hands and a strong and accurate arm, part of his reputation for reliability.

Range factor is hardly the newest and most trusted defensive stat out there. As noted, it's affected by park factors and particularly the pitching staff...including strikeout rate, flyball / groundball ratio, and even handedness (lots of LHP likely mean more plays for the SS and 3B). Most statheads would consider the stats based on play-by-play data to be more reliable...honestly I think it's best to triangulate, comparing all the known stats along with subjective observations. It is still notable that Hall's RF and fielding % are well ahead of Hardy's...the biases that make comparisons across teams flawed don't apply in that case. Though I can't pull them up, I am pretty sure I've seen other ratings showing that Hall is at least as good as Hardy defensively...he has more defensive Win Shares as a shortstop, for whatever that's worth. (I don't know off the top of my head who has more innings at SS and who's better pro-rated for innings...and I'm too lazy to look it up.) And yet it is routinely asserted that Hardy is a better defender. I am not convinced that it's so.

I was one of those who said Cirillo was done. Glad as heck to be wrong...hope he gets a fifteen minute ovation.

If Hart turns out to be a nobody, scoop will say I told you so. If Hart turns out to be a good player, scoop will say he fixed the problems scoop identified, soon after scoop pointed them out. He is not in the league of Weeks, Fielder or Hardy. Who's claiming he is? Very few prospects are...that doesn't mean he's not a good prospect. Some prospects don't work out...but Hart has succeeded in the high minors and that's almost always a good indicator of someone who will have a notable major league career.

What was the name of that guy we traded to get Ohka? That looks like a pretty spiffy deal at this instant, if you ask me.

Goodness, what happened here? Someone dig up that 'can't score runs' thread. Hall will have at least two shots at the cycle, looks like...would you blame him if he just swung as hard as he could every time?

White is supposed to have behaved completely appropriately...he said he wouldn't even speak to Sosnick until he had something from Hochevar saying Sosnick was his representative. Today's LA Times reports that the $2.98M offer has been withdrawn and that there have been no further negotiations. Not surprising, of course.

(Caveat: I'm not an expert.) A binomial distribution starts to look like a normal (bell) curve for a large enough sample...it also works pretty well for smaller samples if the probability is near .5. (Otherwise the curve is asymmetical, non-bell-like.)

Saw this on Primer today...thanks for posting it here Joe. Sadly, I don't think the Davenport translations are available...they adjusted for age as well as league, park, etc. Braun is the number that really stands out IMO...though his K/BB numbers are atrocious. As for a point brought up earlier: antone williamson: had a full 100+ game season at AA in which he posted an ops of .855. Williamson put up that OPS in El Paso, which was an incredible hitters' paradise. Brewers fans might mistrust minor league stats because we have had so many hitters' parks in the past...El Paso, Denver, briefly Tucson, and more recently High Desert. (Now the pendulum is far in the other direction with all of our affiliates but Helena in pitchers' paradises.) I don't remember where Hughes played, but I'd guess it's the same matter of a park effect...you also see older 'prospects' put up good numbers in AAA that don't really reflect future potential.

Goodness..there was a time when it looked like Hardy had trouble with the lowliest major league pitcher, much less Roger Clemens.

Wow...the Hochevar negotiations with the Dodgers have become very wierd. www.baseballamerica.com/t...hevar.html Apparently he switched agents over the weekend, agreed to a $2.98M deal, then got a call from Boras and switched back, voiding the deal.

Just one update...apparently Hochevar is not taking classes this fall...he has enough credits to be eligible for baseball in the spring, but also can continue to negotiate with the Dodgers. There's talk of common ground looking like a $3+M minor league deal (which he apparently prefers so he gets the cash up front).

Tennessee RHP Luke Hochevar was another possible high pick as a polished college arm. He slipped to the Dodgers with pick #40 and last I heard he hadn't signed with the Dodgers, though he wasn't going to attend class until this week.

Not that my opinion matters a whole lot, but the original joke didn't wreck that thread so much as the subsequent post. That one actually came from a moderator (Al) and seemed to provoke angry responses...justifiably so, IMO. I can't speak for Toby, of course, but that seems like what caused him to lock. All that said, the off-topic forum isn't the place to look for examples of moderator behavior...by its very nature it's less central and more subject to opinion. I think the mods do a nice job of keeping things civil overall.

OK, colby, BA has noticed your fine work. The next step is for you to wrest the Brewers column and Prospect Guide writeup away from Tom H. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Geez, looking at the standings I'm surprised how low the Stars have fallen...it must be miserable in the Huntsville clubhouse these days... I don't know about the weather in particular right now, but I've unwillingly spent summers in New Orleans (twice) and Atlanta...that can't make things any more pleasant. Thanks to Dennis S for slogging through and giving it his all.

Yeah, I was thinking it would be a good spot to give JDLR an inning. It's also just not worth all the fussing I see here...say what you've got to say, preferably a little more nicely, and let it go...at some point we're not all going to agree on things.

There was a blurb in BA about Weeks a while back, making it sound quite uncertain whether he'd sign. Incidentally, as UCLA's classes don't begin until September 29th (the Pac 10 always starts really late). It's not a Pac-10 thing, it's just that UCLA is on quarters. Washington is also on quarters, and starts late, and I think Stanford and Berkely might be as well. However, USC and Arizona State are on semesters and started today. Babineau would be a nice consolation prize for Weeks. Is it just me, or do the Brewers often pick a few guys committed to late-starting 4-year schools, perhaps as a way to have a plan B in case guys don't sign? Moss and Page were UCLA guys, and I think they had another prep catcher going to Cal (but maybe it was Duke).