Cool Hand Lucroy

I just find these NLCS less stressful than NLDS on the whole. I'm not sure why that is. I think it's a little counterintuitive. Probably, it has to do with the increased margin for error and the fact that, when you spend six months watching a team every day, the idea of having the playoffs end in a week is a tough to swallow. Obviously, I hope the Brewers win. I'll be especially disappointed if they get swept again. If the series goes 6 or 7, I may well be a wreck by the end. But getting to enjoy a best-on-best NLCS against the two-time champs is a massive perk for a fan. Going to enjoy the crap out of it and finally finding myself capable of leaving behind the uniquely baseball dread of the early elimination rounds. It's really hard to make a World Series. The thing the Brewers have going for them is that it's even harder to make three of them in a row. This team has a real chance, and that's all we can ask for! It's been said by many, but Turang is the key to the series. I'm thinking Game 1 from last year is sticking in his craw a little bit, and I expect him to recapture some of his peak regular season form. If he hits, we score runs. Go Crew!!

Agree to a point. I do think the Rays get a little lost in the "The AL is bad" pattern of statistical facts. Tampa is really, really good, especially on the pitching side. It's a very Brewers approach, where no household name is going to jump out at you, but they've all gotten the job done in incredibly efficient fashion. Plus, they've got probably the second-place MVP finisher anchoring their lineup in Caminero. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Rays won the WS (especially since they're now lined up against a Cleveland squad that's running on very little rest), and, if they're lined up across from the Brewers, I'd consider that matchup basically a toss-up (maybe 54-46 Brewers).

He did it in Game 1, too. I don't care about guys celebrating, but it certainly rubs people the wrong way. William seems to thrive off it, maybe even court it. It all comes with the territory, I think.

Seems right to me. Mostly just laying out the decisions the Brewers have. I think "extra right-handed bat, good defensive OF, and pinch-runner" might be more valuable that "lefty bulk guy who we hope to never use"). I think Hamilton and May are almost certainties in terms of making the roster, but I'd put them together with Drohan as guys who aren't as assured of a spot as others (meaning they're like 90% probabilities instead of 99). IF there is a change, I'd prefer Lockridge to Naylor. And I think some might undervalue his skillset, which is versatile and valuable in terms of the matchup the Dodgers present.

Yeah, I think it's unlikely. Just raising Lockridge as most likely IF there are changes.

Posted in the open thread, but I think Lockridge is the most likely add. Dodgers are more left-handed than the Padres, so I could seem him swapping in for Harrison, or even Hamilton.

I really don't think we see any world in which both Vaughn and Sanchez start. Contreras must be in the lineup, and if the DH has to come in to catch, you lose the DH. Maybe we go with only 12 pitchers and mitigate that somewhat. Even then, though, I think it would be pretty out of character for Murph and the Brewers. Vaughn should get the Game 1 start, probably at first. I'll bet Murph just sticks with Yeli, even against tough lefties. He's ride or die at this point, and I don't think that's a bad thing, as long as it's taking more ABs from Bauers than Vaughn. The Dodgers are like us in that they have a lot of left-handed pitchers, and their roster will be pretty balanced righty/lefty. With the Padres, it was really just Matsui and Morejon (who only pitched once). That sets up for more Vaughn and Sanchez ABs. It also sets up for Lara and Sal splitting the OF a little more evenly. Maybe we even see Lara in center. I also actually wonder if Lockridge gets a spot on the roster. I could see that change, just bringing in an extra bat, and maybe you drop Harrison or something. Pratt will be a really important player. Roster Locks: Chourio, Yelich, Turang, Contreras, Ortiz, Pratt, Frelick, Mitchell, Bauers, Sanchez, Vaughn, Lara Mis, Hendo, Gasser, Uribe, Megill, Ashby, Romero, Senzatela, Patrick, Hall Likely adds: May, Drohan, Hamilton Bubble: Harrison, Naylor, Lockridge Crazy: If you wanted to get really nuts, you could roster Fischer. I say that almost entirely for fun and to start conversation. I really think it's 6 guys for 4 spots, with 3 of them very likely to be selected. If we got 14 position players, I'd have Lockridge over Naylor. I think his ability to see pitches helps in games where you can give him a start against a tough lefty and hope he sees 10 or 12 pitches.

I'm so late to this party because Game 3 wrecked me on a soul level, even though I felt confident going into tonight. Just a lot of combined factors in terms of the actual viewing experience and my own inability to slow my heart rate. I could never be a biathlete. As a result, I went to sleep after the 5th, woke up at 2:30, saw the score, couldn't sleep, and immediately watched the rest of the game before finally managing to fall back asleep around 4. What a ride. Series thoughts: 1) This was the most stressful Brewers experience of my life. I'd put it slightly ahead of Game 163 (third) and watching Games 4 and 5 in LA in 2018. Something about the West Coast start times, plus a short series, plus just a complete tension fest from first pitch to last. I may well change my tune before first pitch Sunday, and I definitely won't say the NLCS is gravy, but getting there and having the opportunity to face the Dodgers just feels like a major prize. Being deprived of that matchup, with all the special things this team has done, would have felt wrong. 2) I wanted the Dodgers. I'm glad we get them. The pressure of playing a weaker side would have been a little annoying, and I like being able to be freer, just knowing they're the Dodgers. The two time champs. The juggernauts. Etc. I truly believe WE are the team that can beat them. Nobody else. Glad we get to try. 3) What a strange game (and series) from Pratt. Big hits and awesome ABs and also just a few deplorable ones. Errors and great defensive plays (the leaping stab in Game 2 was unreal and probably underrated) side by side. I guess that's what you expect from young players in a big moment. Inconsistency. Nice to have him get these games under his belt. Hopefully he gets a lot more. 4) Mitchell, I thought was a little different. He had a bad Game 3, but otherwise looked like a guy who had been there before. Everyone can put up horrid ABs against good pitching. He was better overall than the we'll remember, in part because negativity bias. In a series where the Brewers failed at little things, him making that catch was just doing ever little thing right, to the point that it's genuinely spectacular, even while looking relatively routine. It's not a highlight reel LOOKING catch, but that's because every part of it was done perfectly. It had to be. 5) The Brewers also did the one BIG thing right. They put 13 pitchers on their roster. Sure, three of them didn't throw, but we won this series on pitching depth, no question. Gasser turned in the best starting performance of the series? Henderson was maybe a bit better over 5+ than Gasser over 4, but the fact that we're having that conversation tells how good he was. He just never got rattled, despite multiple opportunities. Pratt error. Tatis home run. First-inning Ortiz just failing to throw to first on a double-play ball. Cannot hat-tip enough. We won the Hader trade!! Meanwhile, the Padres were running on fumes, and not just because of injuries and the extra round. Choosing only 11 pitchers (only like 6 of whom you actually trust) just killed them. They held it together, but you saw why people said "our bullpen is good too" to start the series. The analysis focused on the household names. We brought guys who just as good in the aggregate, and capable of sharing the workload so that nobody was depending on two-inning saves and four consecutive appearances. 6) Dustin May wasn't good enough. I thought, though, that Romero and Senzatela were. Those guys were really important in middle innings. Even when they gave up runs, they kept things on the rails and did what they needed to do. You could argue they were both better than Uribe overall, who looked shaky even as he also gutted his way to outs. Just nothing to complain about on the pitching side EXCEPT for one bad inning from Dustin May (and its connection to the way we can't trust him to be anything but a 6-out guy in limited circumstances). 7) Ashby deserves his own special line item for being relaxed, bouncing back from a tough 2025 playoffs, and just generally being Andrew Miller circa 2016. The guy was versatile and up for whatever was needed. He's a Swiss army knife in the bullpen, and that has SO much value. 8) We got JUST enough left-handed production to win this series. Chourio was incredibly efficient in picking his spots. Only three hits, but lots of hard contact and six RBI. Contreras excellent. Turang wasn't. Yelich and Mitchell picked him up, and Bauers was on base four times last night. Plus, it was the series of Sal. Only three games, but tremendous impact. When lefties contribute, we win. 9) I thought Murph was very good overall this series. He stuck with guys a bit more than I'd have liked, and I think he was lucky that it didn't bit him, especially as Vaughn is concerned. Aside from that, tough to be too upset. I thought getting Mis up was a mistake. It's a meaningless one, but you're only going to bring him in if Megill gets in big trouble, and, at that point, it's such a narrow margin between Mis blowing someone away to close down the game or walking guys and contributing to an L. I think you're just better off with Trevor there, especially when there's more value in Mis pitching a Game 5. But, again, that doesn't much matter now. 10) We won a road playoff game. The streak is over. I don't know how we did it, but we did. This was an all-time classic postseason series, and it had the right ending. I know the comparison will drive folks mad, but I think these Brewers remind me a lot of the 2015 and 2016 Cubs. They have a young position player core with talent and speed. They have a lengthy lineup, with tough ABs one through 9. They have a Cy Young pitcher. They get a cathartic win over a division rival in 2025 (2015) only to get swept in the NLCS. Then, they come back in 2026 (2016), after a monster, 103-win season (the Cubs had a TIE that year!) to beat an NL West opponent in a dramatic, close-out Game 4. They move on, with homefield advantage, to face the Dodgers. I'm hoping we get the same end-result, but with less stress along the way. GO BREWERS!!!!!!

We're Duke? And Wisconsin? No, the metaphor only applies to the National League, and the semifinals are also the finals and then the metaphor ceases to be meaningful.

Kind of reminds me of that 2015 Badger men's hoops team that really wanted Kentucky in the semifinals. I want LA. We're ready, but we gotta get there first!

I like your formula much better.

Right. What else is he going to say? Stammen said the same thing about King. If Michael King throws again, that's a borderline Mark Prior situation right there.

Same, although I was considering something also in edible form and slightly more stigmatized.

I also vividly remember how I felt after the FIRST loss of that series, a BRUTAL Game 4 L in extra innings in LA. Stayed up way too late. Walked around like a zombie the next day. Watched Kershaw dominate us in the afternoon, feeling no hope we'd ever have a shot in Game 5. I guess I'm saying, I basically felt the same the day after the first loss as I do today (other than the facing Clayton Kershaw part), so there'd be some symmetry in feeling the same the same after the last loss too. Time to end the streak.

I was talking myself into a Uribe opener, but, honestly? I think this is the way to go. I know there's a lot of worries about young starters, on the road, and Gasser looked overwhelmed last year in the playoffs. Plus, he's a lefty, and it seems like there's some concern about that versus the top of the Padres order especially. I think, though, putting him in the best position to succeed just means not messing around. Don't try to hide him behind an opener. Don't try to sneak him through a theoretically softer patch in the lineup. We got this guy by trading the best reliever in baseball to the Padres (!) because we thought he was going to help us be really good. What better time? I have no predictions. But roll it out and live with what happens. Hopefully it's nothing but good.

Good stuff. Home run ball has hurt him lately. He hasn't given up a ton of runs in any of his last 7 starts, but he's given up runs in each of them. He's also allowed 8 homers in that time. Interestingly, the distance between Walker Buehler and Dustin May is....non-existent. You could certainly argue May has better stuff. The Padres are starting Buehler because their only other viable option is Robbie Ray on short rest. The guy could crush us! They don't play games in the simulator. All the caveats about randomness apply. Bottom line, though: If you can't beat this version of Walker Buehler, while your two most consistent relievers are fresh and your third-best starter down the stretch can throw multiple innings, you probably deserve to be playing a terrifying elimination game.

I think I'd say that even if Buehler does go 6-7, the Padres will still need MORE depth pitching in Game 5 to take the series. The more I sit with it, the more I just get okay with "this is what it takes to advance in the playoffs." We're in a position right now where we have to win one of two, taking a whole lot of ABs against the 8th through 11th best pitchers on an 11-man roster. The Brewers whole philosophy involves winning with pitching depth. In that sense, these next two games will play to our strengths and Mis and Henderson potentially both available for an elimination game is a bonus. Anything can happen. We all know this. But I'm getting comfortable with three things. 1) being up 2-1 after these three games is probably the most we could've asked for given how everything played out, 2) if we lose the series, it'll be because they Padres outplayed us, even from a position of weakness, and 3) this has been an incredible series of playoff baseball that showcases the absolute peak of October intensity. We've earned being a part of it, and I'm trying to appreciate it in spite of the terror it involves.

I think I'd rather use Henderson if we're going to use a starter late. He's on two days (so on schedule for his side day) and could give an inning late, I would think. I don't want that, but I'd choose him before Miz, and it wouldn't be particularly close.

I don't think this is wrong, but they only have 11 pitchers on the roster. Morejon seems to have some shoulder issues. Miller is always going to be terrifying. I think the point is this: Unless the Padres are planning to get 12 outs from Morejon and Miller, they're going to have rely on BOTH mediocre starters (who are perfectly capable of dominating) AND guys like Matsui, Adam, and Rodriguez, all of whom have thrown a TON. Even if they DO get 12 outs from those two, that's still 15 for either mediocre guys or guys we've seen over and over. It's tough. Miller going on paternity while the Padres won was potentially a blessing for them, on balance (though King's availability in any Game 5 is now going to be limited because he's a starter who's thrown 112 pitches in the last three days, and 209 in the last eight). If the Padres are going to win this series, they're going to need a lot of outs from the non-elite portions of their staff. From an availability perspective, I'd just much rather be us.

Seems like the theory is either Gasser or a Patrick opener. I'd go with Patrick opener, but he's known to hate that, right? If it has to be a righty, Uribe is an out-of-the-box choice, but maybe a good one. Ashby and Megill can probably get 8-10 outs if you need it. If Uribe gets 3 out of the gate, you're looking at needing 14-16 from Patrick, Gasser, and some combo of the usual mid-inning guys and Drohan or Harrison (as last resort). In a weird situation, you might be able to use Henderson as well.

San Diego beat reporter for MLB.com said Morejon has arm fatigue, or "stickiness in his shoulder." He's definitely hurt. Hurt enough not to pitch? Who knows? Obviously, the Padres are going to play this vague, and you can't rule out gamesmanship. But he's not 100%.

Yeah, I don't know. You know those sweatshirts that said "Built for October"? I'm not. Bauers in right is probably a nightmare.

I may have to call it after 4 or 5 tonight. Running on fumes with the adrenaline and lack of sleep. Some good thoughts in here, as always. I'm a little torn. The Good: The Brewers had better ABs. They hit the ball harder. The clawed the whole game and lost by a run on a ball that had an xBA of .630. That's the game. I don't know who the Padres have to pitch tonight. I guess Morejon and Miller could each throw two, but that assumes Morejon is actually available and Miller comes back from paternity. Buehler could certainly get them 4 or 5. Robbie Ray? They'll probably go to Adam and Matsui and Rodriguez (the latter two have also been thrown A LOT). So, okay. They've got guys. But they're going to need a pretty average MLB pitcher to go clean through multiple innings no matter how you look at it. And even if they do manage a win tonight. We'll have (presumably) Miz and Henderson BOTH on full rest for a Game 5 that nobody wants. That would be the way of it, if it had to be (though I'm not sure I could watch). Vibes-wise, it was really hard to see this series ending in a sweep. My own thought coming in was Brewers in 4. We've never won an NLDS in 4. Now's a good time to start. Yelich. He's been outstanding. Good ABs from Frelick and Hamilton, too. I'll echo the praise on Pratt. One bad throw in a really tough situation, but a good game from him. The Bad: Our run-producing lefties have stunk, outside of Yelich (who's also not really a run producer). Turang and Mitchell have to get on the board. Sloppy plays and poor defense literally cost us the game. It's the little things. We got away with it twice, but not three times. 12 losses in a row on the road in the playoffs is awful. It's getting to Twins territory. Most of them haven't been close. Finally: I don't know why, but I just think we get a normal-ish game tonight, and the Brewers win like 6-3 or 7-4 or something. Maybe that's wishful thinking. I will hopefully be sleeping and wake up to good news. Or I'll just masochist myself through it again. Who knows?!?!? It's OCTOBER!!! I might try something crazy tonight like: Chourio Yelich (DH) Contreras Turang Vaughn (1B) Bauers (RF) Pratt Mitchell Ortiz

Ortiz at third tells me they are valuing infield defense over the platoon advantage. Pivetta having somewhat reverse splits might factor in as well. Yelich has absolutely tattooed Pivetta over his career. 7 hits in 18 ABs, with 2HR and 2 doubles. He's also walked three times for a near .500 OBP and a massive 1.288 OPS. Makes sense to move him up to fifth, maybe.

No Brewers lineup yet, but the Padres are going: Tatis, Merrill, Machado France, Salas, Sheets Bogaerts, Harris, Cronenworth Couple of shifts with Salas getting the start and hitting fifth. Merrill moves up to second. Harris drops to eighth.