Cool Hand Lucroy

If there is a 2027 All-Star game, Pat Murphy will manage the National League, and every time he's on camera we'll get to remember this all again.

I'm going to watch Chourio's catch for the final out forever. It was a great play, but also just how jacked that guy was. So pumped. And he'd gone 0-4 and kind of struggled this series! He just loves it and will do it any way he can.

I said to my wife in the eighth, "If they strand this guy at third too, we're keeping Ashby in and going to the World Series." I'm not going to pretend I was anything other than a ball of nerves in the 9th. But it was covering up a gut-level just feeling of success.

Okay one more thought. Levering's radio call was really good. It genuinely sounded like, as soon as he said, "The Brewers win the pennant," he had to say it again in order to believe it. I am so so happy we get to savor this for a full week. It's incredible. It's awesome. It is the best.

I am trying to decide if I even believe this. I mean, they just did the stuff they do all night. It was incredible. I don't even have a list of thoughts. We are going to the World Series. We are going to the World Series. I have never gotten to see anything like this. This is the best team in franchise history. I am going to give two thoughts: 1) Shouts to Shane Drohan, who was walking a high line, but got the job done in a very difficult circumstance. 2) We were better than the Dodgers. By a mile. All over the diamond. They couldn't hit situationally. They couldn't close innings. They couldn't square up our pitchers. All they had was four great starters who we just completely wore down. I don't know how I'm going to feel once the World Series starts, but this is about everything I've ever asked for as a Brewers fan. Thank you to this team and to everyone here.

I was nervous up until the final out. We're so close now that every out is huge. This is far, far from over (I suspect Jeter noted it to Bauers during their little chat after the postgame), but now the Dodgers really have to scramble tomorrow. Thoughts: 1) This team bailed out Murph tonight. Letting Abner pitch to 5 guys was dumb. He K'd Muncy, but it was obvious he had nothing. No command. No ability to hit edges. I get that it was tough to bring in Hall to face a righty, but then he should have had double-barrel bullpen action with Patrick. Look, Murphy has had a fantastic postseason, but he's gotta wear that one because there's no excuse for it. 2) Our defense was outstanding tonight, especially in the outfield. Good positioning, clean on every play, and the one screw-up was salvaged by Chourio. 3) Gasser and Hall were awesome, but give some credit to Megill too. 4-out saves are tough, even with a 3-run lead. He didn't even have to sweat, except maybe for the Betts AB. Those three guys shut them down again, and Ashby has now had two days without having to throw game pitches. He's probably good for 4 and 5 if necessary. That's huge. 4) Even so, I think Patrick and/or Drohan are going to have to get some outs tomorrow. You can't just keep throwing the top three guys, and definitely not with a 3-0 series lead. I wouldn't trust Harrison. But those other two are going to have to do something. 5) Nothing you can even say about the Bauers and Mitchell ABs. Especially Jake's. Like Mitchell said postgame, it speaks for itself. 6) I liked our aggressiveness on the bases. Yelich had Snell read and was going on the high leg kicks and not on the slide steps. Pratt got double off, but nothing you can do there. That was great, and I think Yelich impacted Snell. 7) Playoff baseball changes a ton and on little moments. Bauers AB changed tonight. DL Hall changed tonight. Will Smith hitting one two-thirds up the wall instead of over the wall (great play of the carom by Jackson) changed tonight. Keep the pressure on them early tomorrow. Just like in San Diego, you have to make the Dodgers pay a tax if they do win. Tempt them to use Skubal if you can. Keep it close, keep taking pitches, keep drawing walks. If we just keep on being ourselves, we're going to be alright. Let's celebrate in another clubhouse tomorrow.

Nerves, for sure. But they are "let's seize the first opportunity and not have to feel scared about not taking the second one" nerves rather than "fear of losing" nerves. We have two shots to really command this thing. I WANT the first one. If we don't get it, I'll feel much closer to NEEDING the second.

Definitely tougher when you have something to lose. I expect the Dodgers to hit tonight. But I also have a good feeling about the win in SD breaking the seal on road victories. If we can score in the first and put pressure on...

I get it. Still would've gone with Gary for Bauers (Vaughn at 1st). But let's win anyway. Definitely wouldn't be afraid to use Sanchez in a big spot if Snell is on the ropes early.

Yes. If the DH moves to the field, you lose the DH. If Sanchez is the DH, hitting fifth, and must come in for Contreras, hitting third, the pitcher assumes Contreras' spot in the order. At that point, it's old-school NL baseball. You can PH or double-switch as you see fit. Contreras is the kind of catcher I worry about this less with, but it's still a risk if you start them both. The bigger concern is if you remove Sanchez and then can't PR for Bill in a key situation late (or Bill has an injury, and then Vaughn has to catch or something). I think that's pretty unlikely, and up 2-0 is when you go for the knockout. But there are certainly legitimate arguments for keeping Gary as a backup/bench bat. Maybe you also want to deploy him in an early jam situation (say Snell's at 62 pitches in the fourth with the bases loaded, 2 outs, and Sal, Mitchell, or Yelich due up, and you want to get Snell out of the game) and keep ultimate flexibility, not locking him into a starting lineup spot. I don't know. Bottom line: I just think the balance of the evidence is in favor of starting him.

Only 1 single. The other hit was a double. OPS is slightly better at 1.484. Trivial, but he does damage when he puts the ball in play. Sanchez was Snell's personal catcher for a while with the Padres, so maybe that is part of the advantage. Anything can happen in a small sample, but I think you at least want Snell thinking about Sanchez's bat. I think this gets filed under the "do what your opponent doesn't want you to do" file. I'm going: Chourio, Turang, Contreras, Vaughn, Sanchez, Mitchell, Pratt, Lara, Ortiz. This also helps avoid big lefty-friendly pockets for Tanner Scott and the Dodger lefties, who have been better than their righties so far.

Nobody needs a reminder of the Bucks in 2019. Lose in OT in Game 3, and that about does it. I doubt the Brewers will disappear like that, but it's definitely foot on the gas. For me, part of that is giving Sanchez and Vaughn BOTH starts today. Sanchez is, no joke, Barry Bonds against Blake Snell, in 30 PAs. I know it's risky, but I don't think you can pass up the chance. I posted about this in the open thread last night, but I'm even more committed to it this morning. I won't be hopping mad if Murph doesn't do it. But I think it's clearly the right call, if risky and unconventional in terms of starting your only 2 available catchers.

Gary Sanchez career vs. Blake Snell: 7 for 23 with 5 (!) HR and 8 (!) walks. His OPS is 1.484 I know we're very unlikely to see Sanchez and Contreras in the game at the same time. I know we're playing well. But part of me also thinks we might as well take a shot at a knockout punch. You absolutely could start Sanchez at DH and Vaughn at first. Turang and Mitchell would be the only lefties in the lineup. The drawbacks here are simple: You can't pinch run for Contreras at any point. He has to catch the whole game. You probably can't even pinch run for Sanchez until late, either, because you don't want your DH to have to play the field (which means the pitchers would have to hit) should Contreras get knocked out of the game for some reason, but you also need a guy who can catch available. Is 2 or maybe 3 Sanchez ABs worth all the downside risk? Close call, but I think I'd do it. It's the risk you can take with a 2-0 lead. And it's not a small sample. Sanchez is a 3TO monster vs. Snell. In 31 PA, he's got 13 Ks. and 13 BBs + HRs. He's got a double and a single. Only 3 balls in play have gone for outs. It's a good bet he's going to either K, BB, or do damage, and I think it makes Snell's trip through the order a little bit tougher. I'd go: Chourio, Turang, Contreras, Vaughn, Sanchez, Mitchell, Pratt, Lara, Ortiz.

That's a fantastic answer to that question. I'm glad you quit. I'm also glad you have the story. May this year's team exorcise the demons.

This is a great point. Lots of well-positioned fielders in the Padres series. Dodgers have had Muncy and Betts in the right spots, mostly, but the OF hasn't benefitted them. It may have shown up again on Bauers foul pop in the legendary AB.

This. Analytics are great. Especially over the long haul. In little micro-moments, though, you always run the risk of over-tinkering. Plus, Murphy's got the kind of prepared chill that serves us well here.

I think an underrated detail amidst all the thoughts about Ashby's usage is that DL Hall pitched to one hitter this series. Hall isn't Ashby, but he can certainly play a leverage role over a couple of innings. The Brewers trust him a lot. He and Ashby have similar career trajectories and might be getting a lot of similar advice from the pitching folks. Would I be surprised if Hall becomes Ashby-lite in Game 3? Not even a little...

I don't know about you all, but after the last 24 hours, I'm going to enjoy this 48-hour break. Some thoughts: 1) Without some errors on our part, that's probably the more relaxed, 5-2 or 6-2 win we've been craving. Brewers of course went and made it not so relaxed. Goes without saying that those things need to be cleaned up. There's been too much of it this postseason. 2) Yamamoto struck out one guy. ONE. Everyone made him work. Even the second inning, where he was efficient, Sal put up a 7-pitch AB to give him 14 pitches. Stuff like that matters. 3) I don't know if anyone realized that Jackson went 0-5 tonight with 2 K's, but also two productive outs, both of which led to runs. He and Contreras always contribute, though Bill's contributions tonight were much more obvious and need no analysis or description. 4) We also need lefty hitters to win these games. Tonight, it was Turang and Hamilton, each putting up multiple hits and each scoring three runs. 5) On the pitching side, those bridge innings from May and Romero were massive. You're going to have to get outs from Senzatela in LA, from Patrick, from maybe Drohan, but if May is an option in that group, you can't overestimate the value. 6) Murph's "let it ride" approach is really paying off. I kind of like the idea of not chasing every platoon advantage, especially in games you're winning. He's done that on both sides of the ball, and it's worked so far. I expect Lara and Vaughn will start versus Snell and that we'll see more button-pushing in LA, but he's got these guys ready to hit in all situations. 7) That was by far the best Uribe's looked this postseason. 4 massive outs, and I know he wanted it (great!), but taking him out is the right call. Despite appearing all the time, his usage has been okay because of some efficient pitch counts. The day off should reset him. 8) Finally, I am mentally prepared for the Dodgers to punch back. It'll be a shock if they don't. This series is going to have some legs, but taking these first 2 is such an incredible lift. Every game is a brand new series. Even if we take a couple of blows, we're just one win away from taking control right back. I know Murph will have the guys focused and avoiding any celebration or let up. You won two. It's great. Enjoy it. Now, you gotta win two more, and that's a great team over there.

Yeah, I think Roberts' approach was "whether they get 1 run or 4, it's all the same." Murph maybe wasn't counting on that. Obviously, he would've taken the 1 add-on score. It's hard to anticipate that 4 or 5 batters later, so I'm not too upset about that part. I do think you had to assume an IBB to Contreras, and with slow runners up you're allowing a potential inning-ending double play in a way that allows Scott to avoid righties entirely too. It was the wrong call, I think, but a close one. And it worked out fine in the end. I'd also think differently if Turang were running at his peak because at least then you force a tough play. He struggled to beat out a Hernandez bobble earlier that I think is a hit if he's healthy.

That was tense the whole way through. Massive win, though. If you'd have offered me 1-1 coming out of these two, I'd have taken it. I remember Game 2 in 2018. We had a 3-run lead in the late innings of that one. It's an underrated crushing loss, but no need to think about that right now! We're up 1-0, and it feels like we stole one. Or does it? We also kind of just won doing what we do. Nobody got the big hit with men on base, but we hit a homer and got a clutch single from Lara. The bullpen shoved. It was enough. Some thoughts: 1) Mis wasn't his best, but he gutted. Really, both of these starts, it's been one long inning that's really hurt him. Tonight, it was the second. His command was off, but he made pitches when he needed to, especially in the third and fourth. Getting that extra out helped. Can't say enough about the work the bullpen did. Double plays also helped a great deal. 2) Ashby is such a weapon so far in the postseason. He is peak Andrew Miller. I hope we can win a game without needing to use him at some point, but at least he's used to the usage. Megill and Uribe were shakier, but they got it done. Uribe's K to end the 6th was huge. 3) The Tucker AB in the ninth was a big question mark for me. Megill gets to 2-2 and then throws three straight curveballs, two of which bounce. Felt like odd timing and pitch-calling there. Especially 3-2, I think you have to go fastball. Trevor just wasn't quite commanding the knuckle curve, and that often leads to trouble. Glad he could Mookie in the park and lock down the win. 4) Turang is the obvious MVP. Home run, great defense, strong ABs the whole way through. I'm not wild about the bunt in the 8th (especially if you're going to let Scott face all those lefties--bold move by Roberts to walk the bases loaded, but I thought it was a smart choice). That part of the order, I think you play for more than one. 5) I thought this was a very well-managed game on both sides. There were gambles (Murphy sticking with Ashby to close the 8th and letting Megill start vs. a lefty in the ninth was his big one), but they seemed justified. I think the move to Uribe for the sixth was very, very smart. You put your best against that part of the order, knowing Ashby is going to go two (and face the top of the order again) so that Megill can go against the bottom part. Incredibly well-managed. 6) Balks. Mis, that play WAS a balk, but Smoltz is right. No way the home plate ump saw it in real time. You'd have to have bionic eyes to see that. Also, no way Mis gained an advantage there. Basically, the umpire guessed and got lucky. You live with that, I guess, but then there was the Bauers play. That looked super borderline. In the NHL, they both would have been penalized or neither, but to have those calls go opposite is weird. Curt Hogg is right. Balks and check swings don't really make sense. I think the "attempt to deceive" standard is the best one to apply to a balk, and I probably would've let both plays go for outs on the bases. The other thing is when the pitcher just freaks out and forgets the situation. If Mis had drastically screwed up his step off, even without an attempt to deceive, I'd still be fine with that as a balk. Dropping the ball while on the mound. Etc. But that little flinch seemed incredibly innocuous. Very glad it didn't become a bigger issue. 7) We chased so many high fastballs, I almost wonder if it was some kind of strategy. Just aggressively locking on to velocity pitches above the belt. Still, you'd like to see guys get a little more discerning, especially at eye level. 8) The Dodgers are going to hurt you if you give up that many baserunners this series. That they didn't tonight is what makes it feel a little theft like. We'll have to clean up the walks especially. I suppose the other side of that is that it seemed like LA focused on a lot on how to handle Mis and didn't necessarily have the same amount of effort or focus in ABs against the relief corp. That'll change as they get through the series, but it's nice to log the W without Mis throwing out his best stuff. 9) The recipe for winning this series is getting 2-3 at home and 1-2 on the road. Going up 2-0 would be massive, but I won't panic at 1-1. Have a feeling Henderson throws very well today, though. What a win. May we have 3 more in us.

FIFY. EDIT: I see this joke has already been mad. Out until postgame. Go CREW!!!

I like this lineup against Skubal. Sal and Yeli will definitely get their shot against Yamamoto, and maybe even against Snell in LA. Feel right to load up on as many righties as you can and try to make Skubal grind. Plus, I think Yeli and Sal are good fits for the late-inning, pinch-hit role.

Heard Gard on EyeonCBB pod this week. Was a nice way to spend some sports time prior to the Brewers (and he and GP talked a little bit about the Crew and "wining culture"). I'm interested in how things look with Foxwell. It's hard to price in how these overseas pros will translate, especially when their pro career isn't in Europe. That said, I think he's going to be pretty good. The Badgers are going to shoot it AND be big, and that might help them be much better than 11th in the B1G. I'd definitely take the better on that prediction. I think the Hofstra and Miami transfers they brought in will be good fits.

Be curious to see if the roof is open. IIRC, MLB usually opts for the closed set up and keeps it that way for each game, citing consistency. I was surprised it was open for NLDS Game 2 in that sense, since opening it was basically just responding to the roof narrative. Looks like a beautiful night and not sure it matters much given the post-sunset start. Just an idle thought, 7 hours prior to first pitch.

Both teams go with a 13-13 split for their rosters. Brewers send out the exact same squad, which won't be a surprise to anyone. Dodgers replace pinch-runner Kim with lefty Wrobleski. Be nice to get off on the right foot for this one. Game 1 was our best shot last year. Let's finish the job this go around.