Cool Hand Lucroy

Yeah, the seeding gets SUPER funky at the bottom of the bracket. Cal Baptist has some really good predictives. They're borderline top 100 at KenPom, and I'm guessing the committee kind of just defaults to that when it comes to the final 16 teams. Plus, the WAC was quite good this year, albeit on the strength of about two teams (Utah Valley would've had a shot to pull an upset, I think, had they pulled out a win late this past weekend). Of course, if they're looking at KenPom, there's no excuse for UMBC to be in a play-in game. Double conference champ, decent predictives, probably a 15 and definitely not headed to Dayton. they're 1.5 pt favorites (at even money) against Howard, and that looks juicy if you're into that sort of thing. I do have to say, this is the best bracket I've seen in a while. At the very least, Selection Committee chair did a good job giving actual answers, and bonus points that they were logical. Probably the most egregious thing that matters is Vandy as a 5. That team has been a sleeper F4 team for me all year, and they're playing really well. They get a tough McNeese matchup, but I think they'll be alright. I know Duke is banged up, but it feels like their year to me. Ohio State is probably the best 8, but I'm not sweating anyone else in that region.

The other thing to note is that the Badgers are in Portland, which is a long, long trip. That's the case for everyone in the pod. You might be able to win a bar bet (and maybe a free beer!) by asking which school of the four had to travel farthest. It's Hawai'i. Badgers and Arkansas are both about 1600 miles by air. At least there's no altitude to worry about.

I like the High Point matchup. They're pacy. The worst matchup would have been a grind it down team like UNI IMO. HPU basically plays UW's style with less talent. As others said, maybe they shoot the lights out, and we don't, but, of all the 12s, this is the one I'd have wanted. Arkansas, on the other hand? Yikes. I guess I'd rather get them than Bama, but was hoping for Kansas. Acuff will be the best player on the floor, and the athleticism on that side is going to be a huge advantage in the frontcourt. Plus, that team is smoking hot. Hawaii is very talented (I think they're better than High Point tell the truth), so maybe they clip the Hogs. Or maybe UW has really learned defensive cohesion and they give Cal trouble. Wouldn't be the first time. Some great games up and down the bracket. Looking forward to Thursday!

I know a lot of people feel this way, but can baseball always be like this? The USA-Canada game and the Japan-Venezuela one were so fun over the last two days. Every team has a clear rooting interest. It's like the best kind of spectacle, where I really don't care who wins because so many fun stories abound. I think I'm part venezolano for the next few days, if I had to choose. But I love the atmosphere and energy and joy and fun happening. Baseball is cool.

Good point on Rohde. Definitely an error from Carrington, but one you understand. Michigan can hurt you so many ways, and that felt like Mara was going to be option A and B. If Winter comes back (seems very likely) and they can keep Rapp and AB, that's a really strong front court. Who knows what happens with Blackwell, but, point is, I love the way those two bigs have gotten better in the second half here. Nice to see Garlock and Jones getting some minutes too.

Hard to feel AT ALL bad about that one. Fun basketball game. UW is basically the only team (aside from Duke) that's given Michigan all they can handle. Over 80 minutes, it's dead even, and neither game was at the Kohl. Badgers had a foul to give that last possession. I would've given it, but the much bigger issue is just completely losing Yaxel. Honestly? I can kind of live with that shot (you'd obviously like a better close out). Mara had gotten so many easy ones late that a 22-footer, even a wide open one, feels reasonable. He hit it, all credit to him. Badgers had two and a half stretches (one to start the game and one to start the second half) where they really struggled to score. They also couldn't capitalize on three possessions in a row at the end of the game. One an AB shot I didn't like (early clock, Rapp was on fire). One a decent look from Boyd for three. One Boyd missing in the lane. Other than that, it's the turnovers. Sloppy with the ball. Maybe some tired legs. Rohde was a spark early, so big credit to him. The thing you absolutely have to take away is that the defensive was very, very good. If they guard like that? This is a sleeper Final Four team. I know that's the case for pretty much everyone, but still. To say that after where they were after dropping the game versus Villanova and getting blown out in Lincoln is really something. It's March! Anything can happen. They could lose in a horrible performance on Thursday morning. But you really couldn't ask this team to be in a better spot than where they are right now. Hopefully the matchups cooperate, and this thread is still nice and active on the second weekend. This looks like a group that has a real shot to get Gard back there.

I had a similar thought. I don't think Miami has any business in Dayton,but I imagine it goes that way because the committee can easily justify it as a "compromise" between poor computer numbers and an undefeated regular season. Shrug. One of the massive issues in CBB is the abject fear big programs have of scheduling capable mids, especially in road/neutral environments. To earn an at-large Miami had to basically win every game. That they did it and still might end up one of the last four in, when the rest of bubble is SO bad, reflects poorly on the sport. Put them in the big bracket already (and away from UW).

I know the 12-5 scares folks, but I still think you'd much rather be a 5. Positions you much better for a shot at the second weekend. I think that's especially true this year, where the bubble is weak, weak, weak. Between that and a lot of 1 seeds (Belmont, Wilmington, etc) losing in the one-bid leagues, the bottom of the bracket could be soft. 11 seeds might well be undefeated Miami OH and SEC/B1G schools, or SMU or something. Full respect for a team like Northern Iowa or Liberty or South Florida, but I think you'd prefer them over any of those others.

We ran two very bad out of bounds plays late, one a TO and one the long outlet to Carrington who's not the guy you want at the line there. Still, that's easy to see and call out because this team did so many things well tonight. One thing I noticed is that, a few times in the last ten minutes and OT, Boyd was in a hurry to switch back on Wagler, even though Rapp's length and size seemed to bother him. Toward the very end, UW let Rapp guard, and he mostly did a great job. Similar vein, Rhode got left on an island in the paint a few times, but I think that wasn't as bad as the commentary made it seem. Sometimes you'll give up a two to avoid an open kick. Credit to Illinois for finding the mismatch. After the Badgers took a lead and then Illinois came back to tie it in the second half, they took a timeout. Gard drew up a great play to get Blackwell an open 3. Huge possession. Free throws made a huge difference late. I worry a little bit about hanging on to leads late with this team, but they were awesome today. Sometimes I think they do go into clock melt mode a little quickly, though that felt more like the case yesterday than today. Can't say enough about the guards and Rapp. He's really stepped up in all aspects. Is it crazy to think the Badgers have a shot at a 4? I mean, they should really be seeded equal to or better than Purdue. Feels like a 6 is the absolute floor, regardless of manana.

You said it last week. Twos versus threes. Purdue shot it well, but they put up a lot of 8-10-footers that were well contested. The numbers won't show it, but I thought Rapp and AB did a decent job of avoiding fouls and forcing tough-ish shots. Then, on the other end, you had Boyd getting to the rim at will late, a lot of nice dishes for easy layups, and open corner threes. This is not a defensively impressive team, but they do force inefficient shots a lot of the time. That's gold in March. I also loved Rapp, AB, and Rhode being aggressive. They stepped confidently into open looks. No timidity. Gotta have that with Winter out. Speaking of, I didn't see Nolan on the bench? Assume he didn't make the trip. I saw the "day-to-day" update, but it looked vague in a "let's not give the committee any reason to downgrade our seed" kind of way. Be very surprised if he sees the floor next week or if we get a substantive update. Good news is, it's looking more and more like this team is going to be on the 5 or 6 line, which is perfectly positioned to do damage. Sweet 16 should be the goal, but it'll take two very strong efforts.

The obvious solution, though, is to stop self-selecting so much for velocity. Breaking stuff is obviously stressful on the arm too, but being able to really command 90-92 (or, given modern training, 93-94) with a good change can still work in MLB, especially in an era of shorter starts. In a lot of ways, Freddy used this model earlier in his career, and he's been quite durable. Priester took a jump in velo last year, which probably factors into both his success and this news. Better training and conditioning can increase velo without increasing injury risk, but only by so much. The limits of evolutionary biology are real. I think there may need to be a market correction toward command rather that "stuff" if we're going to decrease IL stints for pitchers. If a pitch jumps out for its spin, velo, and trajectory, it's a good bet, in most cases, the effort of throwing it consistently for years is going to create long-term problems.

Oof. Nothing game, and Winter looks to have badly sprained his ankle. I've seen some amazing things with ankles the last decade, but you hope there isn't a tendon or fracture involved. You're looking at two weeks before a round one game. That's probably pretty quick for anything other than a mild sprain. Hope Rapp and JB are ready for a big step up.

Jekyll and Hyde road trip, but probably the better split from a resume perspective. Yesterday was the perfect example of how hard this team will be to beat if they make their threes. Of course, Wednesday was a case of why they'll be seeded mid-bracket. Blackwell has looked a bit tentative lately. Just not hopping around like we've seen at other times. Hopefully just a case of the February doldrums. Obviously be nice to add a big win or two in these last two weeks, but we're at the point where health seems more important. Just don't lose to Maryland, and you'll have to feel pretty good about where this team sits heading into the postseason.

Yeah, I thought Iowa played very well, but maybe got sucked in by a fool's gold first half. They didn't have much of a shot to keep up with that tempo, and the Badgers ran away with it in the 4th quarter. It also helps when you've got Boyd AND Blackwell. Stirtz is great, but Iowa is looking for a 2nd and 3rd scorer each night, and their victories are dependent on finding one. When Boyd has the game he did, and Rapp and Winter both get multiple triples, it's going to be tough to beat the Badgers anywhere, let alone at the Kohl. Second Jones getting some nice minutes. With Janicki hurt, he's going to have to put in some good stretches. Going 3-2 in a stretch of 5 straight Q1 games (we'll see if Iowa hangs onto that as the season ends) is a very good result. Minnesota hovering around 75 in the NET, and that's currently Q1 too, which makes the Badgers 5-7 in those games. If they grab one or two more and avoid bad losses, that should avoid the 8-9 lines by a ways, especially when you consider the quality of wins. I'm comfortable saying this is a tournament team, and they've finally got the profile to match.

Feel really good for Helle. He has been so good for my Jets so many times, and the playoff choker narrative is oppressive. Nice to have him as hero versus a Chuckie. A great hockey game. Feel for Canadian fans. That was a heartbreaker, and 3v3 is such a hard way to lose that kind of game. Puck gets hung up just a little bit with Werenski, and there's a cross ice pass for an easy goal. You kind of felt, this whole tournament, if Canada kept falling behind and struggling to put away teams, it was going to catch up with them. They deserved this win by the numbers and game flow, but that's hockey. Hard to build a huge narrative around random bounces, but I am sure many will try. All I know is, despite having some complicated feelings, that was an incredible athletic event.

I don't think they still do. The S curve is supposed to determine all seedings. Teams get ranked 1-68 and then put on the corresponding seed lines (1-4 to 1, 5-8 to 2, etc.). Teams can only be moved up or down a line to fit bracketing principles like avoiding regular season matchups and games within the same conference. Travel might be a consideration too. Worse teams get worse seeds and only moved if it's necessary to avoid violating a specific bracket rule. Badgers slight dogs tonight, in a desperation spot for OSU.

Benetti (who I like, but is drifting into self-parody territory along with Ian Eagle) said something to this effect on the broadcast, and it is absolutely a cliche. But the Badgers are definitely a team NO ONE wants to see in their pod in the NCAAT. When you watch them every game, you see what the computers are missing. Boyd and Blackwell are really really good, and the other pieces fit together. Their defense has really improved, but the strength of recent competition is keeping the computers from fully pricing it in. If they end up on the 8-line, they'll be under seeded. Heck, this team feels like a 4 or 5 based on ability, even if the resume doesn't match. You could convince me they'd be under seeded as a 6. Two true road wins against top-5 teams is a nightmare even for your Houstons and Dukes. I fully expect a lot of dark horse Sweet 16 commentary if they keep this up. Of course, the Badgers could grab four more big wins in the next couple of weeks and turn into much less of a dark horse, too. Or lose three in a row. Basketball is weird. Just seems like a team with a clear ceiling (they go as far as the guards take them), but a really high floor.

I saw the backcourt violation in real-time as well. I remember Koenig have something similar happen in an NCAAT game I think? Just bringing the ball up a bit casually. It did feel like a quick start to the shot clock, and I'm not sure if Boyd had one point (the ball, maybe?) over the line at 20, but he certainly wasn't across until 19. Putting that in the "evens out" category after Indiana. I thought Illinois really got away from ball movement and post up action late in the game as well. It was a lot of just high ball screen, let Wagler either step back or drive, and live with whatever he puts up. He was great again tonight, but very high usage rate late. If not for Humrichous hitting a ridiculous three late, this is a more comfortable win. Controversial, maybe, but I thought the Badgers handled the last possession of regulation reasonably well. Blackwell ran down the clock, and got a decent look (he made a similar one in OT). In that instance, I think the denial of another possession for Illinois is worth the lower percentage shot, especially since a two-point lead still puts you in jeopardy. 2-1 before the next West Coast trip would be excellent for this team. Have to think a 6-7 seed is the absolute ceiling, but it's certainly in play. Be nice to avoid the 8-9 line, as always. I'd rather be a 10.

Whoa. That looked done and dusted a few times for the Illini (and once for us). Massive, massive win. 1-1 on this trip is a good result, and if you were only getting 1, this is by far the one you'd pick. I loved the willingness of Rapp and Janicki (who missed his, but still) to shoot down the stretch. Even though the Badgers defer to Boyd and Blackwell, other guys are going to take open looks. Huge winning play from Winter to secure an OReb and call TO late. I give massive, massive credit to Carrington for knocking down two huge free throws. Not only that, but his defense on Wagler was excellent down the stretch. Badgers were totally comfortable switching Winter on Wagler too, and Nolan was up to the task. Genuinely well done. A team win.

Like others, I need a bit more time with this one, but, without getting into evaluation of what I think, I'd say the following things are true: 1) The FO has earned some trust. 2) Clearly, there's belief that Durbin has reached his peak value and now's a good time to cash in. 3) Stockpiling controllable pitchers (and pitching depth) makes a lot of sense for a team like the Brewers. 4) They're operating on "best player available" principles, not really worrying about position and just acquire as much talent as possible. I think this largely makes sense given their position in the market and the rising positional flexibility of today's INFs. A lot comes down to how much people value Durbin/Mona and how much faith they have in the Brewers to make these two pitchers into something worthwhile. I think this will work out for us from a WAR perspective. If no other moves are made, though, it also means we're going to be rolling through infielders and hoping prospects are ready to contribute ahead of schedule. I think we got more talented today. I'm not sure, though, we got BETTER. That's the part I need more thinking on.

Indiana really got away from posting Alexis against Boyd in down the stretch too. We had Winter switched out on Enright a bunch of times, and he insisted on taking contested mid-range shots. This goes in the bucket with the Villanova game for me. It's just one you're going to wish you won, even if you didn't play anywhere near your best game. Flip two possessions, and this Badger team is 4-3 in Q1 instead of 2-5. That's a big difference in terms of how comfortable you feel about tourney participation and seeding. It's also just the nature of CBB. Have to admire the effort, never feeling like they were out of it. Great play in the last few minutes to take the lead. Just couldn't hold on. For all the talk about the refs (certainly warranted), Carrington's final heave was one of the worst decisions I've seen by a player this year. Of all the things you can do with a basketball in that spot, including call timeout, shooting was absolutely the wrong choice. You can kind of see why a guy with that level of talent has bounced around. I think he's super valuable. But it comes with a lot of half-baked choices.

Ultimately, we were up 72-68 with a minute left. Scored 5 points in the last six minutes. Gotta do better than that to get Ws on the road, especially against NCAAT-level competition.

Not just the final two calls, either. Soft fouls on Blackwell at the end, Boyd never getting calls, missed travel on Alexis in regulation. Ugh. Hard to win 5 on 8. Badgers really locked down defensively over the last 5 minutes. If they play with that level of intensity and effort, they'll be fine. Lots of opportunities left.

Ditto on Enright. His complete domination of Boyd on both ends of the floor is the difference so far in this one. So far, Badgers are in the game despite a poor performance. Hope they can get it together for the last 15.

Might be one where it's just whoever hits more threes wins. Modern basketball. I'm not at all impressed by DeVries defensively, so maybe the Badgers can get to the rim with some consistency and hang in even if they're not shooting lights out. These teams feel similar to me not just in terms of their overall season momentum (played reasonably well early, hit a little skid, have picked up some big wins in recent weeks) or their general style (reliant on guards and threes), but in terms of their NCAAT standing. The Badgers probably have the better profile (2-8 in Q1 is not great for Indiana, though they are higher in the computers) by virtue of the win @Michigan. The Gophers sliding up to 72 in the NET helps a lot; hope they can stay there, even if it shows some of the fuzziness of the quadrant system (speaking of which, was happy to see Minnesota get a W; they were due a big one). All of that makes tomorrow's game a huge opportunity for both teams. Both are on the right side of the bubble, but not by a ton. Not at all surprised the Badgers are road dogs, but 4.5 feels a TOUCH high to me. Man, tomorrow is going to be like drinking from a fire hose. Olympics all day and a crapload of great hoops. Real excited for it!