Cool Hand Lucroy

Good point. I'm sure Ortiz gets defensive sub points if we need them, or perhaps comes in to pinch-hit when the Rays turn to Seymour and Booser. I know we've been very good against lefties, but I think facing righty starters mostly makes the lineup choices easy. Yelich, Bauers, and Frelick all play, and you can force the Rays to go through the gauntlet of consecutive lefties (all of whom have had big hits in the postseason) multiple times. They really need their starters to go 5 or 6 most games, so their handedness should make Murph's lineup choices easier in theory.

Our broadcast teams are very, very good on the whole. I have some nits to pick with a few, but they are just that. Small things that might annoy only me. Grindle is my favorite of the group. He is very by the book until he's not, and it kind of fits his Nebraska style. More than that, I think everyone is mostly just who they are on the air, and maybe that came from Ueck. In a sport where you spend so much time with the local guys, it's nice to have a group you mostly vibe with.

Yeah, there are a few things that give me reason for optimism in thinking about the Tampa series. One is that the Guards haven't played well at all, their pitching is out of gas, and they still got two wins against the Rays.

Guards have let him off the hook a bit, too. A couple of slow choppers where the runner at first read it very poorly. Watching our base running spoils a fan. One of those turned into a big-inning-killing double play.

Thinking through the Rays matchup, I have two major thoughts: 1) I like the idea of just playing the best possible team each round. If we're going to win the World Series, let's do it playing the hottest team, the back-to-back champs, and the best the AL has to offer. 2) Tampa is really good. They have a deep lineup, they steal bases, and they play elite defense. Their starting rotation has an ace, a very good Peralta, and two guys performing at a solid 2/3 level. Like us, they win with depth, all across the board. Let's start with the bad. I worry about their defense taking away outs. We haven't had great batted ball luck in the postseason, and Tampa is better positioned than any other opponent to keep that going. I think their starting pitching is similar to ours, though their top 4 seems clearer. Mis v. Rasmussen is ace-on-ace. Peralta-Henderson and Jax/Martinez-Gasser seem very close overall, and Tampa will likely have a clear edge in Game 4. The good news is that the Brewers big strength is their ability to win all kinds of games. Tampa has SOME of that, but I think they need good outings for their starters much more than the Brewers. The bullpen is good. It's performed well. But it'll also be the worst we've faced this postseason. Baker has locked down a lot of saves, but he and Wells are both running FIPs well above their ERA. That and the defense helped the Rays outperform their Pythag by 8 wins this year. I just don't think the Rays are built to cover 5 innings per night out of the bullpen. That means this series turns on something the Brewers have done well all year: dragging the starting pitcher. This will apply particularly to Rasmussen. If the Brewers get to him in Game 1, it's going to set the Rays back more so than it would other teams. You never want to fall behind by multiple games. But doing so in this series hurts double. It lets the Rays give their starters longer leashes. That's the one thing I think the Brewers need to avoid. If the Rays win by great defense and a bullpen that shuts down over 6 or 7 games, you kind of just have to live with it. That's the way they're going to win if they do. They'll put up runs with an offense a lot like ours, but I don't think they can keep up unless they run prevent at a very high level.

Guards 4th: leadoff double. Freddy goes 0-2 on Lowe, then walks him. If we end up facing him, this is where we'll have to make him pay. It's always been his struggle.

Guards look done and dusted right now. 7 innings left to get off the mat, but the pitching is on absolute fumes right now. Feels like a team hitting its absolute ceiling.

I think this is a fascinating test case, though. Do pitchers actually have to throw hard (90+) to have success? Or is it just so heavily scouted and selected for that they just end up doing it? We're getting away from Woody here, but I think eventually the pendulum swings back a little bit. Brent Suter has made a career out of a high-80s fastball and has adapted even in the pitch clock era. I guess I wonder if he'll go the way of the eephus and knuckle-ball guys and basically end the prototype, or if some enterprising team might try to find some value in an "under hitting speed" guy who's getting outs with elite command or funky delivery or an 8-pitch mix or what have you.

Dillard, when in the booth for Brewers games, sometimes seems like he's playing the Tim Dillard character on a sitcom. When he's being interviewed? He's much more natural and relaxed and sharp (and still quite funny and entertaining). I like him generally. I like him most when I hear him on podcasts or in non-game settings.

I can't heart this post hard enough! Thank you!! Go Crew!!

For sure. I mean, I completely agree that Woody doesn't just get a spot because he's Woody. He's got to show he can throw competitive pitches. Ultimately, I just think he's going to be healthy enough to get a few guys out in the right spot. I trust him to do that more than Harrison, who, aside from a decent outing against STL, looked like he was totally lost for the last month. People were making Suppan comparisons, and they weren't wrong. Again, I like Harrison. I think he's going to bring value in the future. I just don't think he's ready to actually pitch in this World Series, unless it's a punt scenario. If people would rather have the punt than Woodruff, I get it. I'm just not sure you need a designated punter on the WS roster, especially since a bunch of other guys could do it if we needed them to.

For sure. I mean, if we come out and boot groundballs and fail to situationally hit or swing through meatballs, okay. I want this team to play their best. But they can play their best and hit line drives right at fielders. The Rays could be defensive magicians. Caminero could take a filthy Ashby sinker out to right. All that stuff happens, and it's part of the game. I'm just here enjoying the ride because this is about everything I could ask for as a Brewer fan. We won a pennant. We're the best-run organization in baseball. We're having the best season this franchise has ever had. For me (and others can totally differ!), it's not worth investing all the time and energy into this team if the only thing that validates it is a World Series title.

Good points. Patrick was at least throwing a few times. It seems obvious the kind of situation they want him in (trailing by a few runs, needing to get through an inning with a guy who isn't top of your list but is good enough to get you outs), and it just never showed up. I think Anderson is a good name to remember. He's a solid member of that bullpen, but I'm not sure they prefer him to any of their righties, and not even to their worst lefty in Harrison. Maybe that changes if he's fully healthy. I'd bet Woodruff makes it, and I'd be surprised if May were left off. I think we go 13 and 13 again, especially if we're facing the Rays and their more right-handed pitching staff. In that instance, I see Harrison being a straight swap for Woody, even though the Rays are better against RHP. We already have a lot of lefties. We're going to throw Hall, Ashby, and Romero quite a bit (probably two of the three in each close game). Gasser will start Game 3 and maybe get bullpen work in later games. Drohan may get a couple more innings. If we had a better lefty than Harrison sitting at home, he'd probably get the nod over Woody, but we don't.

Fair point, but I think the Brewers are well-covered for that scenario. Patrick didn't pitch in either playoff series. May threw like 2-3 innings in each. Harrison didn't pitch. Drohan threw 1. Senzatela can give you length too. He didn't look great against the Padres and didn't pitch against the Dodgers at all. The only real argument for Harrison is that he's a lefty capable of throwing 5 innings in one outing. But I just don't think anyone is going to let him do that. Even in an extra inning game, I think he'd be after all our leverage guys (we might not use both Hall and Ashby in a game), plus Romero, Patrick, Drohan, and Senzatela. Plus, depending on where you are in the series, you could use Gasser in that role. I just don't think anyone trusts Harrison at all, anywhere near a leverage scenario. He's there to eat an inning or two in a blowout scenario. That's something Woody can do, and probably do better. I don't have access to the bullpens or the pitch data, but I'll say this: In a situation where it's Patrick, May, Harrison, and Woodruff for 2-3 spots (depending on if we go with an extra position player), I think Harrison would be fourth on my list.

Agreed. Watching the Guardians pitching today, it seems like they are on fumes. Just a lot of stress up and down that roster. The scariest thing about Tampa is that they are SO much like the Brewers. They run a lot. They put the ball in play. They have one stud pitcher and a lot of excellent depth. If I'm looking for good news about a potential Rays matchup it's that the Brewers managed to score nearly 100 more runs and allow 32 fewer over a tougher schedule. I will say that if that's the matchup, it's going to be the best-scouted WS in a long time. These teams are going to know each other, both because of cross-pollination, and because of how good they are at information-gathering. In terms of the Rays pitching, I think Rasmussen got a lot of help from his defense today, and Baker seems due for a let down. His velocity was down from 96 to 93 in the second straight outing today. He's saved 35 in a row. The FIP is very good, but it's a run and a half higher than his ERA (actually like 1.6). If he's in the low-90s, he's gettable. Peralta I could see tossing 6 scoreless against us or having to leave after 2 because he's either given up 5 runs or loaded the bases twice and thrown 65 pitches. The Rays starters, overall, are deeper, but we have two of the three best in the series, I would think. Our bullpen is also better. I will be rooting for Cleveland tomorrow, but I've gone back and forth. I think Cleveland is clearly the lesser team, but I think we'll play weirder, flukier games against them, and I worry more about Ramirez than just about anyone in baseball in a World Series setting. I also think there's something to be said for a World Series featuring the two best-run teams in baseball. One of them deserves a ring, and certainly more than a very fun but ultimately just slightly better-than-average Guards squad.

If it's Cleveland, I worry about baseball oddities and this being the team to break their drought. They get their hearts ripped out over and over and then get a ring with a team barely better than mediocre. Narratives don't matter. I know that. But this is the open thread.

To make the roster, Woodruff has to be more trustworthy than Kyle Harrison. I think he will be. That's not even to knock Harrison. I just think he needs an off-season to get right. I still have hopes for him as a good SP for 2027.

Guaranteeing a 6th game is not the worst outcome. I think the Guards are the weaker side overall, but there are reasons to worry about both teams. Honestly, I think the best thing is just to root for innings and pitches and close games.

The thing that gives me the most confidence going into the World Series is actually the division series. That Padres team was good. They had two good starters and a great bullpen. They had two superstars. They were also playing hot baseball. In a lot of ways, I feel like we've been that team. Were that team in 2018 and 2019. We weren't playing hot in 2021, but that's another similar year. Two of those three seasons, we lost to the eventual champs. I don't know, and it obviously doesn't work like this, but part of me just thinks the Padres are going to be saying, "man, if Machado just gets it a little more, or the roof isn't there, or Chourio can't hold up on an excellent slider, we're the champs," the same way I sometimes think, "man, if Hader doesn't struggle just a little bit with command and a ball doesn't roll under Grisham's glove, we're the champs."

My grandfather was a Cubs fan. He'd had a stroke before I was born and wasn't particularly mobile, so we'd watch games on WGN in the afternoon and then flip over in time for 4:30 Jeopardy! My dad is also a Cubs fan, and I rooted for them in 2016 just so he got to experience that joy. Still, we lived in Wisconsin (I was born in 1986), and most of my earliest MLB memories are Brewers-related. First game at County Stadium. We moved to Minnesota (right on the border of Wisconsin) in 1998, the same year the Brewers moved to the National League. Really, that was the start of my love for this team. I listened to Ueck on the radio. I had a walkman with ear-bud headphones and would sneak them under my sleeves and listen in school. I thought Jeffrey Hammonds was going to save the franchise. I remember the sweep suits. I once bet a fried 50 bucks we'd win a World Series by 2004. I also didn't have many friends (middle school is tough, man), so I listened to the radio a lot in my room, by myself. Sometimes, my neighbor and I would play Wiffle ball. He'd be the Giants. I'd be the Brewers. Richie Sexson. We'd set up a lawn chair and just pitch (if it hit the chair, it was strike) and hit (if it hit the roof it was homer, the house a double, the grass on the fly a single--anything on the ground was an out, and I believe we started the launch angle revolution). I've loved baseball for a long time. I've also always been the kind of baseball fan who loves the regular season. I just love having a friend in the background, slowly chattering away for six months. I dread the playoffs mainly because that part of the game is over. You're hoping your winter doesn't have to start, even though you know it will. And every moment means so much and gives you no opportunity to bounce back (this is why the NLDS is harder than the NLCS and the Wild Card is hardest of all). It's all jangled nerves and fried sleeplessness. Then, at the end, if you don't win, most people forget about your season, and you go back to the beginning all over again. I've always relished division titles. Winning single playoff games has been incredible. Winning series even better, but I never got to see the season all the way through. This year, our winter starts at the same time as everyone's. That's special. When the last out of our year is recorded, MLB closes its books, and I don't know whether I'll be thrilled or hurt by who makes that last out. In some ways, I don't really care, at least not today. Sure, winning would be better than losing. But we won the National League. We have a pennant. Pennants are flags, and they fly forever. I'd love one more, but I don't need it like I think I needed this. Last night validates a lot of time spent with this team and also illuminates the joy of baseball, all its failures and defeats and beautiful little moments along the way.

Brewers up 3-0 in the series and 8-0 in Game 4. It's the 9th inning. Woodruff comes in and immediately gives up to singles and a home run. Murphy comes out to the mound. Big Woo tells him to hobble his butt back to the dugout, then proceeds to K three guys in a row. Brewers win the World Series. Woodruff retires. Let's goooooo!

Agreed that the bunt was not a good choice, especially given where the Dodgers with their bullpen, knowing Diaz was going to have to go 3 and then....Skubal? Wrobleski? Plus, you've got a lefty-lefty situation on deck, even though it's Ohtani. It just shows where the Dodgers were. They had no belief they could hit our bullpen, and were dependent on scoring on an out. The biggest thing that sticks out to me is just: there were so many moments where that series could have turned. Shohei's swing. Frelick's error. The Uribe inning in Game 3. The Dodgers grabbing the lead thanks to some errors in Game 2. But it Just. Never. Turned. Credit to the guys for mental toughness. Credit to Murph for making the right calls ALMOST all the way through (I think Uribe pitching to Ohtani was the only one that was clearly wrong). We're in the World Series, and it's going to be awesome for a whole week and then for a lifetime after.

So much of Hamilton's success is just being in the right position. Murphy and the Brewers FO do that better than anyone. They win on depth, understanding, and preparation.

I could never free solo anything, but I have to think watching Brewers postseason baseball is about as close as I'll ever get. A lot of the time, you're waiting to fall, but we climbed the rock tonight, and it feels so good.

Man, thank YOU! Always know I'm getting good stuff when I see your posts. This place is great. It's great even when the IGT sucks or the team is struggling. It's especially great tonight. Glad we all get to celebrate in public and the virtual village.