Cool Hand Lucroy

Baseball, man. Baseball. My first reaction to this was: he should throw every first pitch! My second reaction was: wait, no way my heart can take many more of these walk-off wins. I'd like a few 6-1 playoff Ws if the Brewers don't mind.

Here's' to the same ending, though maybe slightly less dramatic (not sure my nervous system can take it).

I guess that's why the play at home was way closer than I thought it would be. Chourio smoked it, and Merrill really does have an absolute cannon.

Good point. That and Pratt's leaping grab were maybe the two best defensive plays in a game that had quite a few.

So many great thoughts in this thread. I echo the emotion. Getting choked up watching that final play. I thought Sal was close to getting thrown out despite being positive it was over the second it got into the outfield. Very Morgan-esque. Speaking of, a series of thoughts: 1) I think that Chourio single is easily a top 3 hit in franchise history. I wasn't around in '82, but Cooper's single, Morgan's winner, and what we saw tonight. I guess you could make the argument for Moose in Game 1 (but, really, that game just felt like one we should have had, and there was such a high from beating the Cubs that it didn't feel quite so high stakes) or Braun's homer in 2008 (a strong contender, but regular season). If folks can think of others (Prince hit a massive homer against the DBacks), I'm up for it. 2) Like others have said, I had some thoughts ready about pinch-hitting decisions when Matsui came in for Mitchell, Yelich, Frelick. I still think THAT'S probably the spot for Vaughn and/or Sanchez, but maybe Murph was onto something making Miller go through that pocket. If he's going to get six outs, there's value in keeping the platoon advantage for three of them, though that couldn't have been predicted at the time. Call it good luck. It ended up being okay. 3) On the pitching side, I thought Uribe was going to get just one out. Surprised that him, Ashby, and Megill were all used. But they put up zeroes. I'll hope the off day resets things somewhat, but I think we're going to have see Drohan and/or Patrick get multiple outs in SD. It would sure help if Mr. May becomes Dr. October. 4) Like @Jim French Stepstool said, I don't begrudge Stammen for trying to get 6 outs from Miller. But that's exhibit A for why it's a tough call. Miller just doesn't do that. No elite closer does. It's a lot to ask to of a guy in that kind of pressurized environment. But none of it matters if those guys don't put up great ABs. And, yeah, I think Morejon's night last night REALLY mattered. You don't go straight to Miller if he doesn't throw so much yesterday. Carryover damage from the Brewers. 5) Yelich really did "earn the C" as someone noted earlier. That was a great performance. And Frelick was awesome too. Even his groundout took a great play from France. If our lefty bats produce, we win. It really is that simple most of the time. And I thought the lefties were good enough tonight, with even Hamilton putting up decent ABs. He just missed a homer in his first one. 6) Sloppy, sloppy defense, and genuinely a sloppy game all around. The Padres have to be kicking themselves for all the runners they've left on. You almost wonder if trying to be patient (something they've been AWESOME at this series) has taken away from some of their aggressiveness and run production. I wonder how their swings will look once they get back home. That team was hacking early and often against the Cubs, so it really is a totally different approach we've seen these last two games. That said, they've clearly had the better ABs all series. It hasn't resulted in better contact quality, but we'll need to get back to doing Brewers things early with Pivetta on the mound in Game 3. If we can force that bullpen (which we've seen a lot--an underrated aspect of only 11 pitchers isn't just fatigue; it's that we get a lot of looks at these guys in a condensed timeframe) to cover 5, you'll feel pretty good, especially with Walker Buehler probably throwing Game 4 on a very, very short leash. 7) It might not be appreciated, but a moment of genuine empathy for Padres fans. We've been in this position before, or at least something like it, in 2019 and 2021. That's a franchise with a similar playoff history (two WS appearances, but blown out both times and whole lot of "bites at the apple" that don't end well. They must have felt a lot of momentum, and it just stings to lose like that. Like I said, I don't think this was a particularly well-played game, but still. These have been two absolute nail-wrecking classics, and the part of me not celebrating (an admittedly small part) is feeling for everyone who cares about that team as much as I care about this one. This series isn't over, but those are two tough losses. I desperately hope we hang one more on them. But since San Diego always stays classy, it's worth trying to return the favor. 8) If my count is correct, we've lost 11 playoff road games in a row, with the last win being Game 3 in LA in 2018. It's about time we turned that around. Let's only come back to MKE for the NLCS. 9) Mitchell is just really reluctant to challenge. Some not close 3-0 pitches that he just let get called strikes. I get that's a tough call, but missing TWICE is tough. At least it didn't hurt the second time. He singled. Maybe that feeds into a broader point about the umpiring. Again, I thought San Diego got the better of it, especially on check swings (I'd love to get a better replay of the Bauers one--they didn't really show it on broadcast). Small margins, we won anyway, hurray. 10) Speaking of, whichever TV director was giving us side angles and ump cams during Turang's AB after Chourio got hit needs to chill. Just let us watch the game, bro! We don't need to see Machado creeping in or Chourio leading. I'm all for experimenting, but geez. Let's call it after the fifth or so, okay? 11) Finally, Turang needs a redemption tour. He's 9-for-49 in his playoff career, though half of those have been extra base hits. OPS is .572. Simply have to get that guy going, especially if he's defending the way he was tonight. Hoping for a comfortable win on Tuesday. Go Crew!

I expect Joey subs for defense if the game is at all close. Doesn't mean Hamilton can't hurt them defensively (I might have Jerry Hairston flashbacks every time the ball gets near him), but it mitigates things somewhat. Frelick being in makes perfect sense. Any word on whether MLB has decided to open the roof? I had heard, in previous years, that they prioritize consistency in playoff series (and we have seen that over the years). I'd be surprised if it's open.

Bauers smoked one to a perfectly positioned shortstop. Chourio hit a ripping liner to right-center. Contreras was robbed of a hit by a sliding play. So was Chourio. We also had our share of luck in Mitchell's broken bat single. The last out of the game was smoked. But, yeah, this picture makes perfect sense to me overall. The Brewers got one big break to get the 2nd out in the ninth (how big of a break, people can debate). But both Padres runs were the result of some good luck/poor defense. If I'm a Padres fan, the big "luck" factor I'm thinking about is RISP. They just left a ton of guys on. Couldn't get the big hit. They had the traffic and put the Brewers more consistently under pressure. I thought they did some things right and deserved more than the 6% number on this graphic. Still, I certainly agree we hit the ball harder and with more consistency.

Listening to snippets of the Padres radio call this morning, and the first reaction to the France ball in the 9th was something like, "France hits it a mile in the air, but it's going to twist foul, and there's Chourio in fair territory making the catch." Statcast has the math to back it up, but I don't think anyone other than hype-mad Adam Amin thought that ball was dangerous off the bat. It just looked like a foul ball to me. That doesn't mean it wasn't lucky for the Brewers. I don't think that thing stays in play if not for the roof. But had that gone for a homer, it also would have been a unicorn, "lucky" home run because balls with that launch angle don't leave the yard. Like, ever. Anyway. Onto this afternoon. King's coming off a major outing with a lot of hype. Meanwhile, Henderson is quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball. Let's hope he puts together 6 or 7 scoreless and the Brewers offense puts an end to the King Michael narrative.

Some thoughts as I calm myself down. 1) The roof will be a story. Who the hell knows? I thought, off the bat, "no way that stays fair." But it made me nervous. I'll trust the Statcast figures. It doesn't matter in the end. The Padres had chances and couldn't get it done. Credit to the bullpen. Everyone contributed. Special star to Ashby for making things slightly less stressful. 2) Speaking of stress, I think that was the most stressful playoff game I've seen. Maybe Game 4 in LA in 2018? Maybe 2019? 2011 Game 5? Okay, those two have the edge because of the higher stakes. But this felt more intense than Game 5 against the Cubs, probably because of all the baserunners. I'll call it the second most stressful non-elimination game I've ever seen. I know that sounds like a dumb label, but crap. I was stressed. And I was zen until like 4 minutes prior to first pitch. 3) I actually thought the Padres got the better of the umpiring. Mitchell and Ortiz both failed to challenge high strikes and had two borderline check swing calls go their way. Obviously, the rafter will overshadow that, but I think it's true. The home plate umpiring was pretty good overall. 4) This bullpen felt like it heard everyone talking about the Padres and decided to make a few things clear. We really saw different roster construction philosophies. San Diego used all their best non-Miller arms (Morejon threw 30 pitches), and they don't have a ton of cover after a 7-out start from Ray. We'll see if that hurts them. They weren't able to cash the extra offensive flexibility with the barrage of PRs and PHs in the 8th. Only 11 pitchers might be an issue if they can't get length from King and Pivetta. 5) Credit to the Padres for taking the right approach against Mis. It pains me to give AJ Pierz any credit at all (I have always hated his commentary style), but he was right about the cutters. 6) The Yelich AB with the bases loaded was maybe the biggest one of the game in terms of adding to the stress. It's hard to blame him too much. He had an opposite field approach and tried to get the first pitch in the air. Just didn't work out. I imagine he was crushed in the thread (I can't read these during playoff games--they're hard enough as it is), but really not much to do there. San Diego had excellent positioning all night, and it paid off there too. 7) Murphy pushed the right buttons tonight. I had two concerns. First, I thought he left Hall in one batter too long, but it worked out and maybe saved Megill some bullets for Machado. Second, I was 60-40 in favor of bringing in Romero for Merrill. It worked out, but that ball was smoked. 8) I thought Lara put up some good ABs tonight. Not much to show for it, but he did fine. Pratt was more mixed at the plate. His late AB was real bad. His first was quite good. Glad those guys got the first playoff appearances under their belts. 9) Finally, I think this does take a little pressure off tomorrow. Obviously, you'd much rather be up 2-0. But you really needed to get this one with Miz on the hill. Now, again, the Brewers will have the better starter by overall numbers, and San Diego is going to have to manage a tired bullpen. I doubt they'll have a real quick hook on King, so I think it's a much more "win our way" situation at first pitch. I think I'm 10 percent calmer now.

Thanks, Ueck.

All good points. Murph has quite an affinity for Lockridge, too, so that might balance out the equation somewhat.

Good fastball, doesn't walk guys? It's so hard to separate any sort of signal from noise in these samples. Thanks for posting. It's nice to check out these graphs and think about whether there's anything aside from randomness at play. I suppose if Vasquez is a difference-maker in this series, we're not winning anyway. Weirdly enough, I'm oddly zen about this game tonight. We'll see if it lasts. Not sure if it portends good things or is simple self-defense, but, either way, I'm looking forward to watching Miz get an October start.

Good point. This seems right. And it might especially make sense if you're expecting a lot of close games where you're protecting small leads or trying to force the Padres to defend their own one- or two-run leads for 5 and 6 innings. You're going to churn through arms fast if you're pulling everyone at the first sign of trouble. I usually default to "offensive flexibility" in terms of postseason roster construction. But this is a "run prevention" roster, and it's hard to argue much with that approach.

The only roster sub I would have made is Lockridge for Harrison. Not that big of a deal. And with a different matchup, I'd completely understand Harrison. It's just that, between Ashby, Romero, Drohan, and Hall, we kind have the lefty who can go multiple innings spot covered (and Gasser may be used that way too), so it's hard for me to imagine a situation where we'd want Harrison in there. I guess he'd be the designated "absorb innings in a beatdown" pitcher? I'd be fine slotting Drohan into better than that role, feeling generally safe, and adding Lockridge's ability to take pitches and pinch-run, especially as a RHB, which is something we're short of in the OF (and I'm not confident Murphy will use Sanchez very aggressively). Like I said, marginal. Hopefully it won't matter. Go Crew!

I've been watching this team for 30 years. That's not as long as some around here, but it's been long enough to see just about everything baseball has to offer. I've seen young rebuilding teams. I've seen bad teams with no hope in the present or the future. I've seen the last decade's run of dominance. I've seen playoff success (because playing in three NLCS counts as success for a guy who grew up just hoping to still be in the race by June). I've felt playoff heartbreak. I can honestly say that nothing that happens with this year's team is going to change my impression of their year, or my future fandom. Maybe that's self-protection. But, truthfully, this year brought something I've never seen before. It brought 103 wins and one of the best pitching seasons in the history of the league. If they end up losing this series, it won't be as cool as it could have been. I still hold out hope for a World Series run. But, at the end of the day, every single playoff game is a gift. It's a torturous, monkey's paw kind of gift in some ways, but still. These kind of peak emotional experiences don't come along very often. I'm not arguing about how anyone should experience it. Everyone gets their own set of priorities, and we're not going to change each other's minds either way. If you're at peace with whatever happens, great. If you're heavily invested in this being the year and will mourn every run allowed, that's great too. It's all part of the deal. All I know is, fall days in October, during this streak of success, haven't felt like football. They've felt like the Milwaukee ***** Brewers, and I'm thankful for every single one of them. I hope we win tomorrow. I know we might well lose. That's baseball. It's at its best in October, and we get to be part of it AGAIN! Go Brewers, now and forever and win, lose, or weather delay.

If Murphy were managing the Phillies, Bryce Harper would be bankrupt about now. Just failed to run on a dropped third strike that went to the backstop.

Braves have a few "not a star or household name, but very scary" players. Harris is one. Big homer for him. Have a feeling it's going to take more than 3, though.

Cubs get two runners on to start the 3rd, down 2-0. Swanson works the count to 3-1 before swinging at two pitches clearly out of the zone. They're pressing. Just takes one big hit, though. Padres going to have a short leash on Pivetta.

I have to give credit to these Peacock broadcast teams. They are not just lacking in annoyance factor, but most of them actually add something to the game. It's a good idea to bring on the local color guys and go with a three-person both with a known voice on lead PxP.

I am of the opinion that Steve Stone is one of the last remaining, great classic-era baseball broadcasters. It's nice that he gets to call this White Sox series victory on a national broadcast.

I feel like the Brewers winning the Central and finishing with the best record in baseball is at least comparable to winning the Carabao Cup (basically like a much bigger, more relevant version of the NIT). If, I don't know, Bournemouth won that, they'd be massively thrilled. And you could argue that this run of success is like winning the Europa League or definitely the Conference League (or the FA Cup--which is basically the NCAA Tournament), which, again, would be celebrated and remembered for eternity. US fans don't think that way, but it's mostly because of cultural arbitrariness. There's no reason we can't individually think of it in those terms, even if it will never get the same level of public acclaim.

The playoffs are weird, man. They're just weird. Glad we'll get at least one Game 3 tomorrow. Hopefully, at least Boston can make it 2. I'd kind of prefer the Padres put it away tonight, but I know opinion is split on that (and both camps have good reasons, and I suspect we'll never change each other's minds). I won't be mad if the Cubs force a Game 3. But I'll just feel a little less anxious and amped knowing their season's over, and we are once again the undisputed NL Central domination Crew.

I am rooting for Philly for some reason. The Braves and Diamondbacks fall into my "quiet hate" category. I can't explain it. It's just there.

I think this is right. If Anderson is healthy, I'd probably want him for a situation where we're maybe down 3 runs in the middle innings and need a righty we can trust to get three outs, while protecting our better arms if the unlikely comeback doesn't materialize. Certainly, the Cubs don't have a lot of good choices. It just seems that Imanaga and Holmes are their two best arms, by some margin, and neither of them are starting Game 1 OR Game 2? I know that Shota has home run problems. And I know that he's a lefty against a RH lineup. But, at a certain point, when your other options are Matthew Boyd or Gausman, you just go with your best guy, and if the matchup bites you, it bites you.

I thought the Cubs handling of their pitching was downright weird. It was just obvious they had no idea who to trust, and they hate the idea of Imanaga (who I think is their best arm) throwing against SD's righty power. Holmes pitching on Friday was just silly. Felt to me like classic overthinking and maybe over-analytics. They may still come back (I think we're due for some game one loser comebacks at some point--a 6 percent win rate is not sustainable), but they've got themselves into an uphill climb.