Cool Hand Lucroy

The current situation: Looks like the Mets and DBacks will trail the Braves by one game heading into the final day of the regular season. DBacks are low-team out on tiebreakers in any scenario. My thought is that I want either the Mets or Braves, hoping they have to play two competitive games Monday. So, the scenario we DON'T want is for the DBacks to lose and the Mets and Braves to win. If that happens, they don't need to play on Monday. Any other result means they have to play at least one meaningful game on Monday. The other scenario we don't want is for the DBacks and Braves to both win and the Mets to lose. That means the Mets will have to sweep a DHer to make the playoffs, in which case we'd get the Braves because that would give the Mets the 5 seed. Or, they'd fail to sweep, and we'd get the DBacks. In other words, root for the Royals tomorrow to ensure meaningful games Monday. Beyond that, two ways to look at it: 1) We want a three-way tie entering Monday. Three teams, two spots. This way, the Mets and Braves both HAVE to win at least one win game to both make it. A split gets them both in. Two losses, and you're out. You would think, under this scenario, Game 1 is full go for both teams. Game 2 is rest for one and full go for the other. We'd get the Mets in a split scenario, so we'd ideally want Atlanta to win game 1 and force the Mets to at least try to win the second. The risk here is either a) one team actually loses both games and we get the DBacks or b) both teams do some soft (or more overt) collusion to just get a split while maximizing rest. 2) We want the Braves to have clinched and the Mets to be even with the DBacks. This way, ATL would be resting, and the Mets would have to go all out to win at least one. Here, you probably don't get two super competitive games, but you at least guarantee that the Brewers most likely opponent has to play hard for nine innings. The downside is that, with the DH not meaning anything for the Braves, the stress on the Mets gets reduced. Or, they blow it, and we end up with the DBacks. There are other permutations, but those are the best two for the Brewers. I think, right now, I'd lean toward scenario one. I'd like to enter Monday with the Mets only needing to win one game, but having to really go for it.

Nicely done, Ortiz. Still have no idea what combination of results I'm rooting for, in the Braves and DBacks games, but I am always up for some Brewers runs.

For sure. Just pointing out what would be a fascinating scenario. We probably are rooting for the DBacks. Have them pull away, keep the Mets and Braves fighting for just one spot.

Braves have won. Padres lead the DBacks 4-1 in the first. If all results hold, they'll be in a three-way tie for two NL wild card sports. It's baseball. But with the Mets-Braves double-header on Monday, this is really shaping up to be an opportunity for the Crew. All three potential opponents are going to have to play all out with minimal rest. One weird scenario: Imagine the three-way tie holds over the next two days. We enter Monday in a three-way tie. I BELIEVE the Mets and Braves would both qualify in the event they split their double-header. The Braves would qualify by having the best record against the other two teams, and the Mets would then qualify by virtue of owning the season series against the DBacks. So...you'd have a scenario where a split would benefit both teams. They'd both qualify for the postseason. Were one side to sweep, the other side would be eliminated. Things would get very "match-fixy" as the soccer folks say. That would be fascinating. You'd essentially be playing to win game 1, and then not caring at all about game 2. Or you could approach with more sinister intentions, trying to get as much rest as possible.

Hoping Sal will be alright, but, as someone else said, if you're going to lose a main guy, he's one that's not so difficult to replace. Mitchell is fine in right and has hit it better. He'd probably be getting most of the innings anyway, especially as a left-handed hitter. Essentially, you can make the the case Mitchell is just Frelick + about .200 OPS points. I guess the relevant question is how many outfielders you put on the postseason roster. 4? 5? And do you go with Collins? Or Collins and someone else? Hopefully, Sal is fine and can make these kinds of questions moot. Also, I would love to see a footrace between Sanchez and Hoskins. After the season. When there are fewer consequences resulting from any potential injury.

FWIW, I didn't think Frelick really had a shot to catch that. Not going to criticize the dude for the hustle. That's his makeup. It's probably why he's a big-leaguer. Just really too bad he couldn't manage to turn down the intensity a tiny, tiny bit.

Hopefully that's just a hip contusion. Hurts like hell, but if x-rays are negative, he should be able to bring something for the WC round.

Um, maybe Frelick should rev down a little? Love the effort, but dude...

It always rains in Pittsburgh! Surprised they don't lead the world in double-headers. I tried to look this up, but couldn't find it. I'd love to know which stadium has hosted the most DHers in the last decade. I'd have to think Target Field and PNC would both be top 5.

Followed this one through 3, took a few innings off, came back at 8-6. What an awesome 8th inning. I know it doesn't matter in terms of portending anything, but it's stuff like this that makes this team FUN. There's zero point in arguing about "how disappointed will we be if they crash out early?" because we all want this team to win the whole thing. What I will say is that the joy quotient of this team is through the freaking roof. The '21, '22, and '23 teams were painful to watch, despite being very good. Just the emotional exhaustion of trying to win every game 3-2, praying the offense could actually secure some baserunners and the pitching could somehow hold on. It was the least fun I've ever had playing winning baseball. Win or lose in October, this season has been a blast. The process of watching this team has been so many steps beyond that, it's just wild. I hope we get to see them as long as possible. Be great for Milwaukee, be amazing for us, and, yeah, it'd be damn good for baseball. Let's see speed, defense, and balls in play win a World Series.

Silver lining, I suppose, is that we're making it less likely we face the DBacks in round one. Rooting for the Phillies tonight and hoping the Braves hang on in Miami. My ideal scenario, at this point, is that this comes down to the last day between Atlanta and NY. As many high-stress innings for as many of their pitchers as possible is going to be the best way to give the Crew an advantage. It also opens up the option to really approach that Mets series with a "make them throw you pitches" philosophy.

At this point, rooting for the race to come down to the last day may be more beneficial than hoping for a specific opponent. With only one day between the end of the regular season and the start of the Wild Card series, having the Mets, Braves, and DBacks all have to throw their good starters and high-leverage guys would be a win. So, easiest thing is to root for the Braves and against the Mets, and they happen to be playing each other Tues, Wed., Thurs. Beating the DBacks obviously helps a little at the margins too. The closer the race is, the better for us.

They can call it Brewers Devil Magic if they want. All I know is, we've become the team to beat in the division.

NL Central champs! Win tonight and celebrate.

A's take a 4-3 lead vs. the Cubs. 6 defensive outs, and this will be a celebratory atmosphere tonight.

Looks to me like it's coming down to the Mets, DBacks, or Braves. Currently, the Mets and DBacks are tied (assuming Arizona goes on to lose to Colorado tonight--they trail 5-1 in the 7th). The Braves are two back. DBacks lose tiebreakers to both teams. Braves and Mets tiebreaker is TBD, depending on outcome of their final 3-game series. Currently, it's 5-5. Schedules: DBacks go 1 Rockies, 4 Brewers, 3 Giants, 3 Padres Mets go 1 Nats, 4 Phillies, 3 Braves, 3 Brewers Braves go 2 Reds, 3 Marlins, 3 Mets, 3 Royals Mets have the toughest road but also have been playing the best baseball. DBacks have that terrifying lineup, not to mention last year's deep postseason run, which began in a way we'd all prefer to forget. Braves can throw Sale and Reynaldo Lopez in a short series. It's a tough call. I think...the Mets are the team I DON'T want to see. They've really been pitching well, they hate Hoskins, and they got some bona fide good hitters. That leaves ATL and AZ. I can see the Brewers having advantages against either of these teams, although the DBacks offense is maybe the scariest element of any of the three teams. Their pitching is such a mess, though. I think I'd take the Braves if I could pick. It's close, though. And we all know it's random, small sample playoff baseball. The only way it might be worthwhile to face the Mets is if they're having to go all out against the Crew those last three games. Curious to hear what others think. Obviously, the hope is that all three of these teams stick close and come in to the playoffs having had to manage every game with maximizing TOR starts and "A" bullpen innings.

Show me Fernando Vina!!!

Just couldn't get to Wheeler tonight. Dodgers are really struggling and still have a series with the Padres coming up. They go 2 Marlins, 3 Rockies, 3 Padres, 3 Rockies. Brewers pretty much have to hope they go 6-5 and then we close our tougher schedule 9-2. I don't see it, but that's why they play the games, I guess. In better news, Cubs lose! Let's clinch tomorrow!

Bummer not to get the fourth. But I would guess Suarez won't come out for the 5th. Good start to this one.

Just me, or is Rhys looking a lot better at the dish? Love to get that guy going in the playoffs.

Ortiz picking it at third has been such a key part of this season, especially after some early struggles. Nice to amp up Suarez's pitch count too. Keep at it.

Allow me to modify this and say: Let's clinch the division and savor every second and celebrate like hell. Not being snarky. I know everyone is going to be jazzed when we clinch this thing. The broader point: When our season comes down to two or three home games in October, that's about all we can ask for given the realities of MLB. The Brewers are an incredible organization in terms of culture, overall approach, player development, and analytical sophistication. There isn't a team in the league that so consistently outperforms expectations and market size, with the possible exception of the Rays. We have genuinely dominated the Central for the better part of the last decade, and, after this season, we'll have 5 division titles in the last 15 years, tied for most in the division with the Cardinals (who only have two since 2015). The lack of playoff success irks some around here, and while I get the frustration, I feel more and more like the playoffs are a bad way to measure a franchise. I'm going to enjoy every one of these last 13 games win or lose. Then, I'm going to do my best not to make the playoffs such a terrifying experience. Will I get sucked in if we find ourselves deep in the NLDS? Probably. But this has been one of the most enjoyable squads of my Brewers life, and that ain't going to change even if we get routed by the Mets or whoever in a playoff series. Go Crew!

I agree completely. And here's the other thing. Arizona had their best pitcher in for two innings and had to pull him in the 10th after nearly 30 pitches. They pulled him (a righty) with a righty coming up and had to bring in a lefty. Which gave Murph plenty of time to think and Williams plenty of time to be loose and ready. I see what Murph was thinking. But it was way, way too fancy. Just like walking Turang to get the platoon advantage against Chuorio. Williams is going to convert that save (two-run lead in the 10th) like 90-95% of the time. Koenig is probably still 70-75%, maybe even more, but it's a significant drop either way. It was just a bad move. Does it matter that much? No, probably not. The odds of us catching the Dodgers or Phillies are still relatively low. The division is locked up. I'd rather not play the DBacks in round 1 (just think Atlanta or NYM are slightly better matchups, though I'm afraid of San Diego most of all), so losing to them actually helps us avoid them on some level. It was a crappy way to end a 4-2 road trip. But we'll get back up tomorrow night and try to clinch at home.

Weirdest game of the year. Walking Turang....inexcusable. Then Murph says "hold my beer." Only explanation (non-injury) is that he saw all the lefties coming for AZ and then overthought it. And by the time Carroll hit, it was 10-9, bases loaded, nobody out, and you're looking at a game where Devin is lucky to get to the 11th even if he comes in. At which point, you just hold fire and hope. Bad call. You're trying to win every game, you go with your best. Learn from it, Pat. Move on, and let's pop some champagne at home this week.

I really like little nuggets like this to remind us a) the difference between 160 and 560 ABs and b) the importance of defense/position. Both these guys have been good! Above league average hitters in nontrivial samples. But Willy doing what he does every single day, at shortstop, is just so amazing. This is a game that rewards you for just failing slightly less often over a really long stretch of time. What a sport.