Cool Hand Lucroy

I probably won't be checking on this game thread until after tomorrow's game. I have a good sense of how it'll play out either way. If we win, I'll stay away Thursday too :) Hopefully I'll be back celebrating on Friday. If not, that's baseball. Here's what I think: This is a good team that is having a GREAT season. Nothing's going to change that. This is the best-run organization in baseball. If you want to use postseason results as a way to denigrate the "bites at the apple" philosophy, I won't stop you. People do what they need to do to feel better about frustrating stuff, especially frustrating stuff they cannot control. For me, though, what we are experiencing is what the playoffs are. We just feel it more because we're there EVERY year now. How would you feel about being a Mariners fan? Or a Pirates fan? A Reds fan? Even a Rays or A's fan? You can't feel this stuff if you're not there to feel it, and most teams aren't. The moneyball A's weren't chokers. The 2004 White Sox weren't this perfectly magical team. Neither were the 2019 Nats. Those great Braves teams of the 90s lost A LOT of postseason series. All of which is to say, I prefer to keep my pain and frustration and hope (and it's really the hope that kills you) to these single-game drama factories. It's enough not to be able to control one result. Attempting to use that result as a window into the soul of the franchise would break me. This is still a fun team. We get to spend at least one more night with them. I'll be sad whenever and however it ends, but I wouldn't trade the Brewers for any other baseball team right now, and that's not just because of Wisconsin DNA.

Well, the Mets probably couldn't have drawn it up any better. The Brewers are competitive enough to use Payamps and Ashby for high-stress, poor-performance innings, but, ultimately, the Mets throw a guy with a 5 ERA to seal a 4-run win in the ninth. Buto pitches two smooth innings, but otherwise you avoid all high-leverage relievers. They're definitely big favorites at this point, but what I love about the playoffs is they'll feel like the underdogs should they lose tomorrow. Let's put that feeling on them.

Alright, here's a trend that can't go on forever: No Wild Card Series has ever gone three games. Obviously, that means no one has ever won after dropping game one. Why not us?* *I still have hope for today. That's the beauty of baseball.

We've got to put a little pressure on this pen. The advantage of facing these guys has nothing to do with hitting or travel. It has everything to do with bullpen. I'll might be more frustrated with that if we go quietly than at that disastrous defensive 5th inning.

One of the weird things about human psychology is we think the way things are going is the way things will continue to go. That's just not the case. Those who can predict those turnarounds make bank, but continually betting WITH the trendline is what costs $$$ long-term. That's as true in baseball as it is in poker and the stock market. We're all so emotionally invested in this thing we can't control. That's part of what makes it fun! And, believe me, I feel everyone's frustration deeply. I'm coping by being weirdly philosophical on a message board. I guess what I'm saying is: the pain is what it is, but it's not a portent of the future. We all detach from the pain in our own way, but today has no impact on tomorrow. Let's get some runs and remind ourselves why we're here.

I just don't think there was any way Adames was getting an out on that no matter what. Maybe I'm wrong. I don't have the split screen and didn't see how close the runner was to second. That just looked like an infield hit all the way.

One of the weird things about baseball is that it strides the "totally random" and "analytically logical" lines so nicely, that we're always going tempted to graft huge narratives onto the playoffs. We need cogency and answers, but the sample size really can't provide it, so it's an awkward fit. The Brewers haven't played very well tonight. Some of it is randomness. Some of it is maybe nerves. Some of it is just lapses of concentration and focus. We're not "cursed." The trajectory of the moment will not be the trajectory of forever. This team doesn't quit, and it won't. I don't know if they'll win, but I'd bet on them not going out quietly in this series.

I think pulling Peralta was fine. You need a shut down inning, Freddy was shaky. Payamps just didn't have hit. He was getting torched. Chuorio makes a great catch, then makes a bad read. Then, Hoskins makes a great play, but Payamps is late covering. Payamps needs to be better.

Mets still have to get 12 leverage outs with a gassed pitching staff (and Severino just sat for like 30 minutes). I don't know if we win today, and, yeah, a three-game series seems short. But you still have to win two games. So far, the Mets have won .5.

Nice, FAST inning there. Let's go. Time for a long ball.

As long as they go loud from innings 7-8 (and don't need the 9th), I'll take it. Playoff baseball is a unique experience. I hate every second of it but don't want to live without it.

I mean, if your game plan is to be aggressive against Severino (which it obviously has been), you HAVE to be running on the first pitch there. Maybe he was? I couldn't tell. But that's a situation where it doesn't make sense not to go.

Nothing in sports feels like October baseball. We get to be a part of it (again). Going to embrace the randomness, the terror, and the joy today. It will be a peak emotional experience, and that's worth cherishing, whatever the outcome.

Alright, Mets it is! We all know the playoffs involve randomness and a lot of it. What I will say is that circumstances have given this team a better than average playoff opportunity. Mets will be on adrenaline. Those kinds of teams are dangerous. Let's match their intensity and get to a division series. 13 wins to go.

I mean, this is why today is so interesting. It's just obvious that, if it were possible and socially acceptable to agree to just split the DH, both teams would have done so. Because once you start playing, do you really trust your division rival to not totally screw you over should they win game 1? Weird things happen when you actually have to play the games. And once you win that first one, you just relax and play loose and "it's baseball" so no pressure anything can happen. Always funny when you see a prisoner's dilemma playing out in front of you in real time.

Hindsight alert (although I did mention this prior to first pitch yesterday). This scenario is also why I'm not sure about holding Sale. Granted, now you have him for this do-or-die game. BUT yesterday you had the Royals with little to play for in a win-and-in situation. And if you throw him yesterday, you've still got him lined up for a couple of high-leverage innings in Game 3 or possibly Game 2 if you really need him. Now, he's just totally burned for that WC round and pitching in a massive pressure game. I guess you could throw him for an inning on Wednesday if it gets that far, but, if Sale wins Sunday, you also save ALL your bullpen guys because you're just in. EDIT: And now I see the note about back spasms. Yeesh. As someone said, maybe that's why they weren't throwing him out there Sunday.

Yeah, count me in really hoping the Braves win for a bunch of reasons. I'm not all that scared of facing Gallen, Kelly, and Pfaadt, but the Mets rotation is probably the same as that lineup, plus the bullpen fatigue, plus the offense, though hot, isn't quite as scary as the Dbacks. No easy matchups either way, but I feel more optimistic than last year.

We may just get the Dbacks after that one. Or Sale may just have to throw 9 innings. Would you rather throw tired good pitchers? Or fresh mediocre ones? The Mets will be doing the latter for sure. If we get the Mets, we'll get Severino, Manaea, Quintana probably. The Dbacks will throw who knows followed by Gallen and Kelly. At this point, I'm primed and ready for October baseball!

This has been an absolute blast. Both teams just tossing everyone they can. At this point, I'd prefer to get one of these teams just because you have to figure they'll be totally spent, but if you believe in momentum, maybe not.

Got it. Yeah, that minimizes the downside risk of the Mets losing both games for sure.

No, the Braves are totally ruled out. If they get swept, they're out. If they sweep, we play the Dbacks. In case of a split, we play the Mets.

This is the most interesting scenario AND (probably) the one most likely to benefit the Brewers. I could see the case for hoping to lock in a matchup with the Mets after today, but you have to take the marginal gain of forcing your opponent to play 18 innings of at least semi-meaningful baseball over the chance that one team loses two legs of the DH. That's always the less likely outcome, and you would think it would be especially so in this case. The other bit of news here is that it's impossible for us to face the Braves. Anyone worried about their pitching (they could still throw Fried and Lopez in games 2 and 3, even if they'd have to do a bullpen game or something in Game 1) will take some solace in that. EDIT: Absent straight collusion, of course, which is probably the game theory optimal play in this scenario. I'm not arguing for collusion. Just saying it's clearly the best possible outcome for both teams, a split where you don't have to work hard.

Crazy things happen in the desert, but I don't see a lot of incentive for the Brewers to play to win this one right now. Even if the Braves come back and clinch their spot, that's not the end of the world for the Brewers. If we come back and win this one, OTOH, we're getting the Braves or Dbacks no matter what. Would really like the Royals to hang on.

Yeah, you could definitely convince me of that. If you prefer the DBacks to the Braves, it may not be worth hoping the double-header materializes with stakes for both teams because that risks us getting ATL and their pitching staff, should they decide to sit Sale. Honestly....I think it's very risky for ATL to be throwing Morton today. If you lose, you open the door to having to use him Monday, and then he's toast for the whole WC series. Plus, you may have to play two games that matter if you drop game 1 of that double-header. I think I'd probably still do it the way they're doing it, but, man, that's a move that definitely screams of newer age thinking (namely, that you'd take a higher probability of not making the playoffs over starting your best pitcher on the final day of the season to clinch your spot). Fascinating game theory stuff going on in the NL today.

There are eight possible combinations of results today. Four are probably bad for us. 1) AZ L, ATL W, NYM W (Under this scenario, AZ is eliminated). 2) AZ W, ATL W, NYM L (Under this scenario, the Mets need to sweep a DH to qualify, and we'd be guaranteed to face either the Braves or the DBacks). 3) AZ L, ATL, L, NYM W (the Mets and Braves both clinch). 4) AZ W, ATL L, NYM L (Braves need one win in the DH. Mets need two. Both teams have to go all-out, but we get the DBacks no matter what--in other words, high-drama, but it doesn't help the Brewers ). Two are probably less bad but still not great: 5) AZ W, ATL W, NYM W (the Braves clinch, and the Mets need one win in the DHer--we would probably hope the Braves win game 1 and the Mets win game 2, giving us the Mets). 6) AZ L, ATL L, NYM L (Braves clinch, Mets need one win, functionally identical to scenario 4). The worry here is that if the Mets win game 1, they maybe don't play game 2, and we get the Braves who wouldn't have had to expend much energy. Two are good: 7) AZ L, ATL W, NYM L (Braves clinch, go two games up on the Mets, Mets have to win one game of the DHer to qualify. Under this scenario, we get the Braves if the Mets sweep, but that would seem very unlikely given that they might scrap game 2 if the Mets win the first one. Doubt they'd go all out to avoid the Padres). 8) AZ W, ATL L, NYM W (Three-way tie going into Monday. Both games are necessary. We get the Mets in the case of a split, which be the most likely outcome, and at least one of the games would have to be real). I would be pretty surprised if we were to play all out today, so we're probably AZ and Royals fans. But, if we win, we're probably Braves and Padres fans. The biggest shortcut for me: I'd like the Mets and DBacks to match results.