KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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I'll also add, at the end of the day this is my opinion. I have a strong opinion in this case, and if I'm wrong I'll own it. I was similarly furious about the yelich trade at the time, in reality that trade might be an all time great trade. At this time, I've made my opinion very very clear.
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Lol, narrative I'm trying to spin. They had a whole season to try Ortiz, nowhere did I say they had to immediately install him as a starter, nor did they need to wait until the stretch run. It should have been obvious by end of May that mateo wasn't it. His pattern was similar to Owen Miller last season. Miller was good in May, Mateo was good in April. Miller was effectively benched by July and the Brewers win in a pennant race. Your argument regarding urias would be better if he was an effective hitter. Him blocking a prospect is comparable to Hernan Perez blocking a prospect. This is the second time you've moved the goal post and tried to change my argument. If the Orioles thought ortiz was a better option than Mr 607 and a utility guy, they had ample opportunity to do so and chose not to.
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Fair point. Pitchers still have a tendency to get to MLB sooner than 25, but a significant number of arms don't truly figure it out until much later. There are a fair amount of serious late bloomers. Junior Guerra stands out.
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If the Orioles thought Ortiz could hit MLB pitching, Mr 607 would have hit the bench at some point and Ortiz would have gotten some playing time. The existence of Henderson and Westburg doesn't change the fact that mateo got 350 PA last year. The Orioles, despite him sucking, thought mateo was a better option for those PAs than ortiz. Also, trending towards being a bust is different than being a bust. Is this the new trendy thing on bfnet to twist words and shift arguments in order to win, rather than argue in good faith?
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You're moving the goal post and arguing something in not arguing. I made the point that the Orioles continued to run Mateo out for an entire season while ortiz had success at AAA after having success at AAA in 2022...you responded by saying that primary reason for trade is he's blocked "referring to holliday/Henderson I assume". If you're going to put that much time into a response, I recommend actually responding to the argument instead of shifting the argument to something that better fits your narrative.
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Defense is certainly helpful, but I've always felt like defense is significantly overvalued at this level of baseball. The number of outs turang is gonna convert over an average 2b is probably not a big number. The defense should be good again, assuming Arnold doesn't further pull the rug out from under us. So we'll find out in this case if our limitation of runs was because of the defense or in large part because we woodruff/burnes.
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True impact talent tends to get to MLB sooner. You pointing out one case of a 25 year old coming up and being a star doesn't change that. You're also making way too much of COVID, has there been a significant change in pattern of prospects coming up? COVID halted the minor leagues for one year and all of a sudden all the prospects had a massive setback? Or, maybe hall had a setback because he's simply gonna be a guy that has good stuff but doesn't have the command to go deep in games and is gonna slot into relief. This isn't some rare phenomenon caused by COVID.
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It's one thing to trade Corbin burnes. I understand the need for the team to trade that player, but you gotta do better than this. I view it similar to the Hoskins signing. Allocating payroll to 1b makes sense, I just have concerns about the ACL and wonder if the deal was a good one. Regardless of my thoughts on the trade, trading burnes is a very clear indication that the way the Brewers win baseball games is going to have to be different going forward. There's gonna need to be a lot more 8-5 wins than 4-2 wins this year if we are gonna be any good.
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Lol are you serious? Holliday started the year in low a as a 19 year old. That has literally nothing to do with anything at the MLB level. Ortiz spent all of 2022 and 2023 at the MLB level, had pretty solid production, yet the Orioles still thought Mr 607 OPS was a better option. If the Os thought this guy could hit major league pitching, he could have had a chance in 2022 or 2023. If you want to make the argument that the Orioles are stupid and made a bad decision with him, fine. If you think they are at minimum a remotely competent front office(with this trade, this seems obvious), then they probably don't think this guy is gonna hit MLB pitching.
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The Padres just got way more for Soto, who has a much higher salary. Soto has been a bit more valuable lately(approx 1 WAR higher the last 3 years,..2 WAR higher in 2023), but the Yankees gave up sooooo much more for him than the O's did for Soto. King/Thorpe are probably more valuable than what the O's gave us...and they also got 3 more players.
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Ortiz is 25 and hasn't been given a shot, that should tell you something. I'm aware of the O's prospect pipeline being part of the reason, doesn't explain how he couldn't push Mateo and his .607 OPS off the SS position. The fact the O's wouldn't give him a shot over Mateo really should tell you all you need to know. Hall would be a solid guy to include in the trade. 7th inning relievers certainly have value. In this case he seems to be the centerpiece, Even if Hall does his best 2022 Drew Rasmussen...it doesn't make this trade look any less bad on paper at this time.
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The Hader one wasn't quite as bad on paper as this one. It helped that we immediately got a less good replacement, and it was also proven shortly after that us and pretty much every analyst was way way off on the value of Ruiz(or the Athletics were). I will generally agree those 2 trades looked worse on paper, but the level of value was so much lower that even a bad trade isn't THAT bad. You can't have a brain fart when you're trading a guy like Burnes.
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What Hall is doing BARELY qualifies as not being a bust. Certainly a useful reliever, when you're talking about a top 100 prospect...they need to start or be a reliever at Devin Williams level otherwise it's fair to say that player fell short of expectations and didn't justify their ranking. If Hall doesn't start and pitches in relief, he won't initially be an option for the 8th/9th. There's also no shortage of guys that can put up good contact numbers with low power in AAA that don't translate to MLB. Worth noting both guys are already 25. True prospects that will have an impact at the MLB level tend to get to MLB a bit sooner.
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Matt Arnold has been there, but he hasn't been GM for the time period you described. I can't recall Stearns making such a big trade that looked so stupid on paper.
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Calling these guys top 100 prospects is quite hilarious, Both guys have struggled mightily at the MLB level to this point and are barely still on prospect ratings. This is not an argument in good faith. It would be more accurate to say these guys were previously top 100 prospects that are trending towards being busts.
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I feel like the Brewers could trade for a cy young pitcher every year if this is the going rate for 1 year of a cy young pitcher, it's so darn cheap the farm would have no trouble keeping up churning out solid middle relievers and hernan Perez 2.0.
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This move coupled with the Hoskins move is basically playing for 80 wins. Trading burnes/Williams/Adames and playing for 70 wins makes sense. Signing Hoskins and a couple others and playing for 87-90 wins makes sense. This doesn't make sense. These two moves come off as a guy clicking buttons with no plan. Feel free to try and put lipstick on a pig if you insist, this plan is going to lead to mediocrity or worse long term
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Don't forget arrieta. And he went to the cubs and they are horrendous at pitcher development, apparently the Orioles are somehow worse than the cubs. I guess there's hope the trade can work out...but on paper this is a bad bad bad bad trade. When you trade a cy young pitcher with "if these 2 guys significantly improve then maybe it's a fair trade"...it's a bad trade
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Guarantee you Stearns is calling Arnold like "bro, don't do trades when you're this high"
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Hall seems unlikely to start unless the Orioles are just bad at pitcher development. Ortiz has had his chances. I get the upside is high, it's like we traded burnes for 2 keston hiuras. Fire this GM please, dude is freaking clueless
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As expected, the Orioles board is basically "that's it" and "there's got be another big piece going". Matt Arnold can take a walk anytime now
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I don't think I could possibly hate this trade any more. I guarantee the Orioles board is dancing in the freaking end zone right now, as well they should.
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Three trade proposals from Twins Daily
KeithStone53151 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I got to these trade proposals late. Trade 1 seems like a fit for the twins but not as much for the Brewers. Trades 2 and 3, am I crazy for my primary initial thought being that Mitchell is far far more valuable than frelick? Frelick is limited due to lack of power, while Mitchell could be a star. For that reason, I would probably do tier 1 for Julien, but I'm pretty sure the twins would not...or we'd have to add to the trade. -
I am generally in agreement with those that think one of our opening day starting rotation and isn't on the roster yet. Whether it's a FA major league deal, or finding a vet on a bounce back deal, I don't think we roll with all of rea, Ross, Miley in the rotation. I suspect specifically one of Ross/rea won't have it this year to the same degree they did last year and will be out matched. I have similar concerns about the bullpen.
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It's honestly hard to care about whatever upgrades they do when they do charge 12 dollars for a beer, up close to 20 for a good one.
