KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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I did similar to you, except I want to say i took over 50 IP. There are 173 pitchers in MLB that fit this criteria. 64 finished below 3.9 ERA, 56 finished above 4.8 ERA. The number I picked were arbitrary based roughly on what i was seeing from fangraphs projections. Using your 3.85 to 4.85 you can add 5 pitchers to the 53 between 3.9/4.8. I also used only stats accumulated as a SP. I changed the range from 50 to 80 and the results were similar, 55 under 3.9 and 35 over 4.8 out of 140. So I'm really not sure how you're getting to 68/70% falling within the 3.85 to 4.85 ERA range. Below is a link that may or may not work to how i sorted stats. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=1&season=2023&month=33&season1=2023&ind=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&stats=sta&team=0&sortcol=16&sortdir=default&pageitems=200&qual=80
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I've also said, there's a wider path to being mediocre/good with Hall looking promising early and Ashby appearing healthy. It's still a narrow path, a lot needs to go right...it's also possible the Brewers view Rodriguez/Miz/Gasser as more ready than most of us realize, which has the potential to truly change the game for the rotation. My initial comments a few weeks ago were looking at being forced to put 2 of Ashby/Hall/Junis/Ross into the rotation with Hall being previously a bullpen arm and Ashby's health completely unknown. The first 2 have so much more rotation upside than the latter 2 and it seems Ashby and Hall are first up.
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I pointed out in an earlier comment, fangraphs projection around 70% of pitchers to be between 3.9 and 4.8 ERA. Reality in 2023 was around 30% of pitchers fell within that range. Their projection systems heavily over-project to the mean, and because of it I don't feel like they have much value. A human(not me, an actual expert) analyzing an individual pitcher is going to have a much better idea of how they'll do than fangraphs applying a formula to previous years data.
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So everyone that comes here needs to look at Matt Arnold like he hung the moon? Nobody can be critical of the macro decisions of the Brewers? You're going to give me this lecture while every in game thread is full of unbearable cry babies that need a new box of tissues every single Brewer game that isn't a 10-0 win? Every poster more or less dismissed any arguments and simply cherry picked stats while ignoring all evidence that doesn't fit their narrative, or said "here look at fangraphs". I never said I didn't expect pushback. Everyone is welcome to think the Brewers rotation is going to be great, or mediocre, or whatever their opinion is. I expect arguments/discussion in good faith, and not for someone to try to twist my argument into something that it's not.
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Or I'm saying, the projections suck(which is my opinion), and providing my own opinion on the rotation. I'm not stating facts, and you're the one bridging the gap between projections suck, and my opinion being better. And note that I only provided an opinion on a few pitchers for the Brewers. My comments regarding the Pirates were as simple as that, these projections suck. All 10 between 4.15 and 4.8, that's terrible, it's worth nothing. I can't tell you how I think they'll do, but there's just no way all 10 land within that ERA range. And where did I say I want projections to account for random variance? There must be something in these projections that heavily skews everyone towards average, it's the only way to explain why they think such a high percentage of pitchers are going to be near mlb average. I get that they are probably more likely to have greater variances if they make less of an effort to skew toward average, but doing it this way is pointless as it doesn't tell you anything.
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You're shifting the argument, classic tactic of yours. You do it literally every time you respond to me. Where in my post did I say "my opinion is better than fangraphs"? I said fangraphs projections suck, simple statement. If you want to counter my argument, fine...tell me why they are good...but don't try putting words in my mouth.
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I mean, these projections suck. Any projections that push everybody heavily to the mean...are worth nothing. Teams paying for these are getting a heck of a lot more information than just one number...
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I'll call it as I see it. I have a pretty good track record of optimism on this board. I have a lot of optimism about the 2025 rotation. I have probably higher than most optimism about the 2024 and beyond lineup and ability to score. The 2024 rotation is a problem in my view. A big problem, I'm quite upset it wasn't more adequately addressed because of how good I think the offense can be. I also had a big problem with the Burnes trade...not that we did it, but the return. To this point in spring training...it seems there's a better than I expected chance that the Brewers knew something we didn't know...especially regarding Hall(which gives the rotation some hope). Maybe I'm wrong about the rotation as well, I'm not a baseball expert...I'm a guy that puts a fair amount of time into baseball as a hobby and I have opinions. Some people want to put on their brewerfan shades and happily believe every move is magical and everything is going to go great. And honestly, that's fine. We can revisit this in June and y'all can come dunk on me if the Brewers are a top 10 rotation, and Jakob Junis is racking up QS left and right with his 63% slider usage.
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I understand you're point, I also understand that if projections are going to be ultra safe and trend so heavily towards average, they don't really tell us anything. Projections could be more interesting if I could drill down on each player and see X% of outcomes were better than 3.5 ERA, X% were worse than 5.5 ERA, etc. As they are, they suck and are worth nothing.
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I'm not expecting them to predict the Cy Young with a 1.8 ERA, but what's the point if you're going to predict the majority of pitchers within 0.5 of MLB average? That's just not useful at all.
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These rankings are worth little. The projections are so heavily slanted to push everyone towards the mean that they don't have much value. The Pirates are really going to have 10 SP with an ERA between 4.15 and 4.80? I'll take that bet. The CBS ones may be just as bad, and for all I know they have the Brewers 15th. Looking at the rotations in the 18-25 range on this fangraphs list, I don't see many that the Brewers aren't either worse than or comparable to. The path to being middle of the pack is pretty narrow, the path to being bottom 5 is significantly wider.
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This seems more fair than most takes. There's certainly quite a bit to be excited about with Hall/Ashby and a few of the pitching prospects. I don't think it's going to make 2024 any less ugly though.
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What makes them middle of the pack? How would you compare them to the Cubs rotation? Here's one power ranking I found that has a top 10 along with 4 missed the cut...no Brewers to be found. There's a path to the Brewers being in the 12-15 range...if Ashby stays healthy and takes a step forward, if Hall's gains in the bullpen last year translate into the rotation, and if Miley continues to defy his age....and if they all stay healthy. That's a lot of things that need to break right for you to be right, with odds being way higher of them being a clear bottom 10 rotation. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-power-rankings-baseballs-top-10-rotations-entering-2024-season-with-braves-astros-phillies-at-the-top/
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2024 Spring Training Game Thread
KeithStone53151 replied to Brewcrew82's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
One thing I'd specifically note is the max, moreso than the average throw. Machado specifically is known to be a minimum effort guy, he's not going to throw harder than he needs to. The max obviously tells you his throwing ceiling. Going down the list, a lot of guys in the next 10-15 under him have a higher max than him. All that said, I generally agree with the sentiment that arm strength is overrated at 3b. How many more plays is Machado going to make than Madrigal solely due to arm strength? 5 a season? It's not nothing, but hard to imagine it's a significant problem. It's probably a bigger number as you approach Elly De La Cruz territory...but that's a different argument. -
Delaying control time a year …
KeithStone53151 replied to Scooterfletcher's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm guessing he's referring to simply changing/fixing the rules either now, or for the next CBA. They have tried adding incentive to not manipulate service time in the last CBA, though I can't remember what exactly they did offhand. Maybe this is something fans care more about than the players. The primary people impacted are the stars, and at the end of the day I don't think this decision results in owners paying any less than they already would to the players...so I guess long story short maybe the players/owners/teams don't really want to fix it that badly. -
Delaying control time a year …
KeithStone53151 replied to Scooterfletcher's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I couldn't agree more. Think of this in terms of the shift. Everyone knew it sucked, but you gotta change the rules otherwise you can't blame the team for operating within the rules. Even if it hurts the Brewers, I'd love to see some change here. -
Delaying control time a year …
KeithStone53151 replied to Scooterfletcher's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Did the Brewers ever keep him down to manipulate his service time? I don't think service time manipulation was ever a factor for Taylor, and that's just how it tends to work out. Teams shouldn't really worry about this for fringe roster guys. Odds are pretty good the fringe guys aren't going to stay on the MLB roster without any stints down. There are so many other factors at play, the minimal amount of value the Brewers got for a guy like Taylor...5-6 years down the line...is not worth any value lost in the present. -
I don't really think it's his fault for what happened with Ross. Ross may or may not have stayed manager if Counsell didn't go there, but it's not like he called the cubs begging them to take him. It's honestly just what it is. Counsell going to the event has consequences and he knows it. I always intended to boo him intensely while he was manager there, but what he's said since taking the job has only fanned the flames. This feels so similar to favre, except in the case of favre he truly had an axe to grind. He was pissed at management for effectively moving on from him. Going to the Brewers number 1 rival for a 25 percent pay bump(I'm pulling that from what someone else said, is that really all it was?)...this is honestly worse than favre by a wide margin. He's approaching Molina territory in my sports hatred hierarchy, truly an accomplishment.
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I can definitively tell you that Brewers press are scared to ask tough questions out of fear of losing access. By default, Chicago press will either be equal to our tougher on him. And agreed 100000 percent with a previous poster that noted counsell is softer than Charmin.
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Probably a safe bet, but it seems like there's more of a vacancy at 3b than 2b. I would think taking playing time from momasterio will be easier than turang...especially considering he's a rh bat.
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He very well might be putting in a ton of time, but we don't really know that. It's certainly possible that hiura spent so much time focusing on defense that he spent less time continuing to improve the hit tool. It's also very common for catchers to be late developing at hitting because so much focus is on developing as a catcher as the priority. A lot more goes into improving at hitting than cage work. I don't really think there's a right or wrong answer here. I can understand why someone would not be concerned about his offense with him putting in time learning new positions. I personally am a bit concerned. Every player in the league either is, or should be, putting in the time to try and out-work their peers in the off-season and get a step ahead. If sal is spending 3/4 of his time on defense and 1/4 on offense because of this position change...that might be enough to keep him from improving enough to keep up with the pitchers improving.
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The 2.5 in 2024 isn't really relevant to whether he'll pitch this season. You just kinda look at the deal as a whole. The fact that he's starting a throwing program is very promising, I'm sure he'll be brought along very very slowly, but it's probably not fair to completely rule out a 2024 return unless it's being reported as impossible...which I haven't seen. Certainly unlikely.
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I'm surprised by all the push back on turbo regarding concern about him spending too much time learning a new position and not enough time improving at hitting. It's not like these guys sit on the couch all off season and go grab a bat when they get to spring training. Everyone in baseball is working incredibly hard all off season to improve themselves. If frelick has a heavy focus on developing at a position, that's less work he's doing towards improving his hitting.
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I was reading through planning to post this exact comment. I like that idea of flexibility in theory, but if he's spending too much time on defense it might impact hitting. That said, maybe frelick has a burnes caliber work ethic and will just do it all in one off season.
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In case anyone needs more reason to hate this guy. I hope he stubs his toe once a day for the rest of his life.
