KeithStone53151

As owbc says, the money isn't unlimited. If revenue goes down $100M, either cost go down, or net income goes down. Maybe the owners do eat the entire dip and payroll stays up, seems unlikely though. Maybe Cohen would but none of the other 29 would.

You're thinking about this incorrectly. If the Dodgers, for example, suffer a $100M reduction in revenue due to the RSN's...the impact to the Dodgers payroll will be significantly greater than the impact to the Brewers payroll. The Brewers revenue will drop 1/29th of 48% of $100M. The Brewers lose $1.6M in revenue while the Dodgers lose $52M. The % of spending power the Dodgers lose is much greater than the % of spending power the Brewers lose in this scenario.

This is the part that will make it not be easier. It's much easier to follow your team when you know what channel they'll be on. I don't get the impression MLB is going to stop trying to maximize revenue. Do you think Apple/FB/YT/Amazon are the only ones that want to broadcast games? You already missed ESPN/Fox/TBS/Peacock. We are just a few years away from needing probably 8-10 subscriptions if you want to watch all the Brewer games. You already need at least 4(Amazon/Apple/Peacock/ESPN). Imagine in 3-5 years having to pay $5-10/month times 6-8 services...just to watch all the Brewer games? That's not even factoring in one of them being Amazon prime which is what like $200/year? That's a lot of cost and hassle just to watch the Brewers. The diehards will do it, but you aren't going to get casual fans to enjoy your product by making it more difficult to follow your favorite team.

It blows me away that others think this. We are a bottom 3 market size and payroll has been approaching middle of the pack consistently in this competitive window. Considering our market size, we could easily operate similarly to the As or pirates. I understand you are being sarcastic. I like the fact that we signed a good player. The contract seems fine, and the fit is very good. I just don't know that this was the best use of our limited resources. It's also quite risky, we really need this move to work out...so making the upside play on an injury risk player...is just that, risky. I'm also intrigued on what he might look like defensively. He definitely isn't a double plus defensive player at his position like our middle infielders. Seems like he's been league average at 1b but does the injury make him worse? Let's just hope he hits good enough that he's only a brewer this year and he opts out.

How? 162 games are gonna be divided among 8 streaming services. What part of that is easier than flipping to FSN every day?

They really should be though. The business plan of MLB to divide up between so many streaming services is very short sighted. It works for NFL because there are so many less games, and much more rooting interest for fantasy football and/or betting purposes. Baseball doesn't have the same dynamic. For baseball, I don't have a ton of interest in watching a Rangers vs Astros game. I want to watch my team, that's it. Making it more difficult to watch my team play(and more expensive) is a bad business model that is going to turn off customers even moreso than they already are. And in general, ignoring really your primary market(50s/60s) to try and win the people in their 20s/30s that just generally don't have as much interest in baseball is just plain stupid. It's like flirting with the bartender(who you're never going to get) while your wife gets upset right next to you.

Relief pitching is extremely volatile. Most of the guys that had success for us last year did not have success for us prior to last year. We had 4 or 5 guys "figure it out" and be effective all during 2023. I don't think all of Peguero, Payamps, Megill, Uribe will carry similar success into 2024. I would anticipate Yelich getting significant atbats at DH this year. He was a lot better in the field last year, he might even have been average, but let the 19-26 year olds chase fly balls and keep Yelich healthy and more fresh for stealing bases and hitting dingers. This might be why the ZIPS projection above is so low on him, though even at DH i would think he can do better than 2-2.5 WAR. The Contreras one is surprising and frankly doesn't make a lot of sense to me. That's wild regression, I can certainly understand not projecting him at 6.2 but 2.8 seems weird.

This deal makes no sense for the Brewers(not that we are giving up much, but this Patrick guy seems very meh on paper), so naturally we should expect Patrick to be the 2024 Payamps/Peguero/Milner/Torres/etc.....

Gonna be hilarious when he tweets out his thank you only to have fans replying with the middle finger...

Boo this bum worse than Machado after the Aguilar stomp incident.

Here's a list of all position players that have been a top 5 prospect between 2011 and 2018. Trout, Harper, Dominic Brown, Dustin Ackley, jurickson profar, Oscar taveras, wil Myers, Byron Buxton, Xander boegarts, Miguel Santo, kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco lindor, Addison Russell, Corey seager, jp Crawford, Andrew benintendi, yoan moncada, gleybar Torres, dansby Swanson, Ahmed Rosario, Ronald acuna, Vlad jr, Eloy Jimenez. There's certainly a few superstars, a few solid players, and a few "who the heck is that". So right off the rip, just know this is going to be a horrendous deal at least 1/3 of the time. Just imagine signing profar or benintendi or yoan moncada to a 100+ million deal. On top of that, it's not like we're playing MLB the show and you can sign any guy to a deal. I really don't think young players are going to be quite as amenable to a big and super team friendly extension so early. A guy like acuna may end up a cautionary tale as Juan Soto earns more than double what acuna gets over his career despite being debatably similar quality players. Obviously this is speculation on my part and at the very least is a variable dependent on the specific player/person. I guess my stance is im potentially open to it, but the risk is quite high. Especially considering chourio really hasn't lit up the stat sheets in AA/aaa. His numbers certainly are good. But are they 100+ million numbers? I'd feel a bit better about any extension if he was doing what Jackson Holliday did this year, who is a pretty close comparable for Chourio considering age/level.

I'll agree it's different, but Hiura was also a quite different prospect than Frelick. Expectations on Hiura were initially a high contact/barrel hitter, but then all of a sudden he started crushing dingers and he looked to be a middle of the order star. Hiura was given a 65 grade hit tool projection as a prospect, which is quite high. It's tough to argue his hit tool is higher than 40 currently. You could also look at Carlos Gomez as an example of a guy who was expected to like Acuna/Trout but was quite bad at the mlb level until he hit 27 and had a few good years with us.

Pitchers have inherently more risk than hitters for injury, and while I agree with your points and would instantly accept the offer in his shoes...I think players are seeing that a lot of these contracts end up being quite poor for the player if he ends up being a star and may be more inclined to bet on themselves. Comparing Acuna/Soto is the best comparable I can find. I won't bore you all with the details, but bottom line, Soto will make approx $75M more than Acuna at least, over the duration of Acuna's current contract(assuming Soto signs a contract next year earning $30M/year, which is a pretty low bar). Beyond Acuna's age 30 season, Soto will still be making $30+M per year while Acuna may or may not justify such a high dollar contract at that point...while today he would probably demand more than Soto. Like I said initially, when you're talking about the difference between $100M and $200M...it's frankly monopoly money at that point for us normal humans. We'd all take the money, quite our jobs, and drink/golf/fish/*insert hobby* out the remainder of our existence. But it's not quite that simple to the players who for a very wide variety of reasons want to maximize their earnings.

For every Corbin Carroll, there's a Keston Hiura that looks every bit like a star...and falls flat at the MLB level. Imagine paying an average of $15M/year for a guy not on the roster...or worse, a guy that's on the roster only because of his contract but doesn't in fact belong on the roster. It's also worth noting that the current young guys can easily see the contracts a guy like Acuna is under, and recognize he probably lost out on $200 million by signing early. A guy like Chourio might not sign a $100 million contract right now that locks him up for 10 years. He might, but it's not the same slam dunk it was a few years ago.

I think Gallen realizes this, and he's going to be thinking to get ahead early and be efficient with his pitches. I think we might get a lot of very hittable fastballs early in counts, and should be looking to hit them into Lake Michigan.

Peralta did not pitch against the Dbacks this year or last year. In 2021 he did so twice and racked up 13.1 innings allowing 2 hits, 7 BB, 1 run, 19 ks...and got the win both times. One of those matchups in 2021 was against Zac Gallen. Current diamondbacks that have seen Freddy are a combined 2 for 21(22, but I'm removing a Zac Gallen AB) with 3 BB and 6 K...with Ketel Marte having the best stats of 1 for 2 with a double and BB.

Agreed. It'll be interesting based on the game decision. I think the bullpen being gassed may factor in a bit, but he's also not going to let Peralta work out of 2 base runner jams in the 5th if he's over 80 pitches. There's also something to be said about having Miley or Rea pitch today if Peralta can't go deep. At least that way a potential tomorrow you have Williams and hopefully a few guys that didn't pitch at all. Peralta for 5, Rea for 2-3. Then tomorrow Miley for 3-5 and Wilson for 2. I know those are probably optimistic innings numbers in the postseason, again lets just hope we get filthy Peralta and he gives us 6 squeaky clean innings.

The best thing I can say going into tonight, is the Brewers should feel their backs against the wall. Normally, after yesterday, I would think the Brewers should try to work counts. I think we need to be aggressive early in the count today. Gallen throws a lot of very hittable first pitch fastballs, generally middle away. We have a few guys with a lot of power to the opposite field. That's what I'm hoping to see.

I would normally agree, but we emptied the bullpen entirely yesterday. The only guys we didn't really use are Rea and Miley, and those guys are probably going to piggyback to a degree a potential game 3. The only guy I don't think is available tonight based on usage is Williams, but anybody that pitched yesterday and also pitches today probably won't be available for game 3. Hopefully Peralta makes the decision easy and is at 60 pitches through 4 with 7 strikeouts and 1-2 baserunners total.

Not necessarily. I think both guys are PH options, as for Winker over Mitchell...I think we're good on defense with Frelick, Wiemer, Taylor, Perkins for 2 spots. Wiemer is at least a RH option whereas most of our bench options are left handed. Edit - I realize now Tellez didn't make the roster. That's quite surprising to me...

Owen Miller should not touch a bat. He's there as a capable infielder that you hope you don't use...but he's there just in case. At least that's the best justification I can come up with.

Donaldson will definitely be at 3b, I don't know that he should...but I expect he will. I expect Tellez, Canha, Frelick in some combination of CF/RF/DH. I don't think Mitchell makes the roster. If it was my decision, I think I'd roll Canha at DH with Frelick and Taylor in the outfield.

Taylor is slashing 269/309/545 since the all star break, even better in September...though he's sporting a high k rate. Frelick has a higher OBP during both stretches and is a better defender. I can see both sides of it. That said, it's hard to imagine Mitchell starting over Frelick. Mitchell is probably the better player, it's tough to justify giving at bats to the guy who hasn't seen much pitching. In limited at bats he hasn't looked good.

This is cleaner. I fully expect Winker to get the spot over Mitchell...I'm not saying it's smart, just what I think will happen. I also think Chafin gets a spot over one of Miller/Miley. Having one long reliever makes sense, if we blow 2 games we are done so having 2 doesn't make sense. Whoever of Miley/Wilson makes the roster, will not be expected to pitch barring a probably 7-8 run lead or 4-5 run deficit. Also it's the playoffs, all the relievers can throw an inning a day as long as the pitches don't get too crazy.

The Dbacks have 3 RH starters going in the series(Pfaadt is apparently game 1, I assume Gallen and Kelly will follow him). All 3 have fairly normal RH vs LH splits. Safe to say we'll use a LH heavy lineup where possible. Yelich, Contreras, Santana, Canha, Adames, Tellez, Donaldson, Frelick, Monasterio. Expecting a lineup something like that. They could go with Mitchell in the outfield, Tellez on the bench, Canha DH for better defense if they want. Taylor will enter the game as soon as they use one of their likely 2 LH relievers against Frelick or Mitchell. They also may roll Turang for defense or at the very least will use him as a defensive replacement late game. Bench spots I'm guessing Caratini, Turang, Perkins, Taylor, Winker, Miller...for 15 position players. If we had a 3rd catcher on the 40 man, I would have thought they'd have him over Miller to allow flexibility for pinch running...but we don't so that's out. For pitchers, the locked in are Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Williams, Payamps, Peguero, Megill, Uribe, Milner. Thats 9 locks, probably 2 of Miley, Rea, Chafin, Wilson...with my guess being Chafin and Wilson. I would think Rea over Wilson, but he pitched a lot this weekend so I don't think he would have a shot.