KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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Unlikely, but I certainly don't think they helped their development last year by treating them with kid gloves. I thought last year about, if Bryce Harper came through our system, would we have hurt his development by likely heavily platooning him early in his career? Maybe a little, at least delayed his ability to hit lefties. I think last year, the Brewers did the 2024 and beyond brewers a disservice by platooning the lefties so heavily in the first few months.
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Has a late season return been ruled out?
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C- Contreras 100, Sanchez 50, 12 FA/minors 1B- Hoskins 122, Black 30, 10 FA/minors 2B- Turang 130, Ortiz 12, Monasterio 10, 10 FA/minors SS-Willy 70, Ortiz 72, Turang 10, 10 FA/minors 3B- Ortiz 70, Black 40, Monasterio 40, 12 FA/minors LF- Frelick 90, Yeli 72 CF-Chourio/Mitchell 142, Frelick 20 RF- Chourio/Mitchell 110, Wiemer 32, Frelick 20 DH- Yelich 75, Sanchez 52, Contreras 15, Hoskins 15, 5 other I combined Chourio/Mitchell as I have no idea which will be the primary CF. That outfield count is going to be interesting.
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That's completely different than what happened. I would take zero issue with playing the matchups heavily in August/Sept and beyond. I take bigger issue with it in April/May. If these guys don't get atbats against same handed pitchers, they aren't going to get any better...and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy when they inevitably face a same-handed relief pitcher because they haven't seen it as much and relief pitchers generally are much better against same handed hitters. You can't simply turn top prospects into platoon bats right off the rip. In your scenario, assuming he isn't improving, at some point you've gotta punt the idea of him figuring it out against RHP and try making adjustments in the offseason...maybe it's June, maybe August, but at least you gave it a fair shot...at least probably 200 AB for Chourio.
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All the guys I listed. Turang, Frelick, Mitchell were all platooned early on in their tenure despite none of them having concerning splits in the minors. These are all top prospects, if they are ready to go...let them play. It drove me bonkers watching middling RH options getting starters over Turang against LHP early in the season. Wiemer wasn't really platooned as much, obviously harder to do with a RH hitter. I don't really take issue with how they've handled pitchers, and that pretty much sums up the list of top prospect hitters that have come up the last few years.
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I haven't seen anything on who fits best where in the outfield. All of Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer have a lot of experience in CF. I would think it's between Mitchell and Chourio for primary CF reps. Also worth considering, the Brewers will probably platoon Chourio for a month or more if he makes the opening day roster...considering that's exactly what they did with Mitchell/Wiemer/Turang/Frelick. I debated blue font, I'm still bitter about the Brewers consistent mismanagement of top prospects breaking into the majors. Chourio is on track to becoming a star, I'd like to think they won't similarly treat him with kid gloves.
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I didn't realize Arnold had said that(not everyone follows every word the GM said publicly so closely), so in that case it's probably fair to assume early on Yelich will be in left. At the end of the day, Arnold isn't in charge of the lineup card. There are a lot of reasons that Yelich could DH more and play LF less. It would be quite stupid to DH Mitchell or Chourio for example and have Yelich out there. So if our outfield bats start spanking the ball like I'm hoping, it becomes a fairly straight-forward decision to DH Yelich a fair amount.
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2024 Divisional Rivals Thread
KeithStone53151 replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I have serious concerns about the rotation. I've gone in depth about it in another thread, so I'll leave it at that. I'm also well aware that my opinion is fairly against the grain at least on these forums. I also believe last years team had a lot of things break right and weren't truly representative of a 92 win team, so my opinion doesn't require 15 win regression to come to fruition. -
2024 Divisional Rivals Thread
KeithStone53151 replied to Playing Catch's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
While I don't think the odds are in their favor, this is the wisest comment in the thread. I think a lot are discounting the Pirates just a bit too much. They have some really talented pieces. Them staying good for the entire season probably involves going above projections in the first half and adding significantly at the deadline, which would be smart for them if they do indeed exceed projections in the first half. I still think the Pirates are 5th, but I would project no team to win more than 85 and no team to win less than 74 right now. Reds - 85 wins Cubs - 83 wins Cardinals - 82 wins Brewers - 76 wins Pirates - 74 wins -
This would be a very prudent move, especially considering the guys we currently have. I was thinking a bit over the weekend how in the world we are going to find playing time for Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick, Chourio, and Weimer. It seemed likely Yelich would DH a lot to stay fresh, but maybe the answer is Wiemer in AAA for a month and reassess in May(I still think Yelich DH's a fair amount, let the 24 and unders chase fly balls).
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My ballpark estimate of 90% is effectively the same as 68.7% when you're comparing to the 30% reality. Either way, far less SP fall between 3.9 and 4.8 than fangraphs projects...my general premise was correct. You're frankly too stupid to argue with that you can't grasp that and are stuck on "bro, 68.7 and 90 aren't even close to the same".
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Keep being a clown bro. He copy pasted a stat, I was clearly throwing a ballpark number out there of 90%. I more or less proved my general premise was correct by showing that reality is only 30ish% of SP last year ended in the 3.9-4.8 range while fangraphs projects around 70% in that range. Again, try a little critical thinking instead of throwing out one liners from the sidelines.
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You think he's going to be effective in the starting rotation throwing 63% sliders? You think he's going to hold up doing that? Is there an example at the MLB level of anyone having success throwing sliders at such a high frequency as a starting pitcher? Over the last 2 years he's had most of his success in relief, I think he can be good in relief assuming his arm holds up...I have no confidence he can take his relief repertoire and pitch 5-6 good innings.
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Ok so almost 70%. In 2023, there were 177 SP with over 50 IP. 64 ended under 3.9 ERA, 61 ended over 4.8 ERA. Only 30% of pitchers ended up in that bucket. Fangraphs projections end up throwing way more guys in that middle range than truly belong there. That's how guys like Junis project for a 4.34 ERA
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I think our thoughts align on pitching, though i disagree on offense. I think there's some real promise on the offensive side. Turang, Mitchell, Frelick, Chourio, that SS we traded for...some of those guys take steps forward and we could put up big numbers on offense. All those guys have a track record in the minors indicative of future success. We certainly could struggle, but a lot more to be optimistic about on the offensive side in the near term.
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In general I find fangraphs projections pointless. Honestly, scroll the pitching projections. Is 90% of MLB gonna have an ERA between 3.9 and 4.8? According to fangraphs...yup.
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Top 10?!? I'd take that bet in a heartbeat.
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One side is cherry picking stats that fit his narrative, one side is considering all the stats and a minimal amount of critical thinking...you should try it sometime
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You're ignoring a lot of contributing factors to come to the conclusion. There are some past indicators that either guy could be good, but there's far more indicating disaster. This is also at least the 3rd time I've had an argument with someone on here about the horrendous state of the rotation, I just can't seem to wrap my head around why nobody else seems to see the problem. Oh yeah, the guy we signed for $1.5M who was hurt for 2 years is going to be a serviceable starter. The guy who throws 63% sliders in relief is going to all of a sudden jump to the rotation after previously failing there. Rea, yup he's gonna be just as good as last year...no teams are going to find a way to adjust to him. Miley will stay healthy, obviously. The rotation needs a lot to go right just to be well below league average. If a lot goes wrong, I don't know how we're going to fill the innings. I'm generally very optimistic on this board, but it's hard to be optimistic about the rotation. The amount of homer-ism in this thread is off the charts. Man if I saw the Cubs were rolling Joe Ross and Jakob Junis in their rotation, I would be thrilled.
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You can't be serious. The years I referenced they were primarily starters those years. I stand corrected that they happened to pitch some in relief as well, and in Ross's case he happened to throw 9 good "starts" at under 5 innings on average in 2019. I did add previously that Ross has a better shot at hitting projections simply because of a wider range of outcomes due to injury. It's tough to know how a guy is going to come back after missing 2 full years. Considering he was not great before that, and the contract he was given, betting on him being a solid starter is not a smart bet. For Junis, you had to dig pretty deep to find a borderline effective stretch as a starter the last 5 years to cherrypick...while averaging about 4.5 innings per "start"...while pitching in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. The idea of him pitching to the projected 4.34 ERA is laughable.
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Because brewerfan82 is cherry picking numbers that fit his narrative and ignoring all evidence to the contrary.
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I took stats for the entire season. You reeeeeally are cherry picking your numbers here. Ross had a 3.02 ERA in 9 starts in August/Sept, yet a 5.48 ERA on the season in 2019? Also worth noting Ross averaged less than 5 innings a start in your cherry picked 9 starts. Also I certainly didn't miss you ignoring the prior seasons I referenced on Junis. Do you simply ignore data that doesn't fit your narrative? That's starting to become a common theme on these boards lately. So, if we ignore the fact that Joe Ross was bad in 2017, bad in 2018, bad the first half of 2019, and injured for 2 full seasons(while pitching bad in a very small sample in rehab)...yeah he's gonna hit his mid 4s projections that are handed out like candy. If we ignore that Junis was decent early in his career and incrementally got worse as a starter. And, in your cherry picked 4.61 ERA in 6 starts(5.26 on the season overall), averaged less than 5 innings a start. Also in 2022 he also averaged less than 5 innings a start. Junis has 1 pitch that isn't batting practice, and that's his slider. He's not going to be able to throw his slider 63% of the time as a starter and either go deep in games...or stay healthy. So if we ignore all those concerns, yeah Junis is a mid 4s starter.
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Those links didn't work for me to click on. Junis pitched to a 5.26, 6.39, and 5.24 ERA as a starter from 2019 through 2021. I'm willing to ignore the 2020 season, that still showing well over 5 ERA. He pitched better, mostly as a reliever, for the Giants the last 2 years...in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. If I were able to bet on Junis posting over 4.75 ERA as a starter(minimum 5 starts), I would do it in a heartbeat. Ross pitched to a 5.01, 5.06, and 5.48 as a starters from 2017 to 2019. He didn't pitch 2020 and had a better year(4.17 ERA) in 2021 before missing a ton of time. He has a better chance of coming near his projection than Junis as a starter, but there's so much unknown in him as he hasn't pitched since 2021. In an extremely limited sample, he did pretty poorly in 14 AAA innings. I know it's small...but it's all he pitched. Thinking a mid 4's era is a likely outcome for either guy...wishful thinking unless the Brewers are able to unlock something. I know they've been good in the past but I'm not optimistic in either case.
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Lol, what about what Junis/Ross have done at previous stops is an indicator that they'll pitch to a mid 4s ERA? There's just no way that's where either pitcher ends up as a starter, that reminds me when fangraphs was pegging Hader for a 3.5 ERA when he was a multi-inning demon posting 2.6 or better ERA's every year(ignore COVID year). You're honestly better off completely ignoring the projections, just scroll through them. Do you think 90% of the league is going to pitch to a 3.9-4.8 ERA?
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I just generally feel like a lot of you are far too optimistic. We are counting on a lot of guys that last year were either hurt or pitching in relief...and a lot of guys that were not good starters prior to this year. I don't think the Brewers are prepared for the fairly likely outcome of 1-2 guys getting hurt and 1-2 healthy guys being terrible as starters. Now imagine if Peralta has an injury and misses April. All of a sudden, Wade Miley is our opening day starter.
