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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    It's soooooo close, but the replay fortunately was very clear despite it being so close...and had a perfect still frame of ball in mit and foot not on base.
  2. KeithStone53151
    I guess my point was that he's performed at about that level to this point, any team giving him a chance is doing so based on his upside...thinking he can get better.
  3. KeithStone53151
    I don't disagree at all, but I think it helps that he's supposedly a good defender, has power, and some guys do figure it out late. He's probably like, a -1.0 WAR player in a full season would be my guess.
  4. KeithStone53151
    Not quite that simple, very little swing and miss that inning. Also a two of his outs were hard hit balls. Clearly the Brewers don't have confidence in him going deep in games, especially after that last inning, as he's getting pulled at 47 pitches.
  5. KeithStone53151
    This is one sample, but Junis struggles the second time through the order to this point are what I expected. That slider heavy thing, with it being a good pitch, makes hitters uncomfortable the first time. But second at bat, they'll be way more ready for it.
  6. KeithStone53151
    If Turang can hit, and Junis is a number 2 starter(I was and am very pessimistic on Junis)...my 74 win prediction is going to look very very silly.
  7. KeithStone53151
    Cartwheel
  8. KeithStone53151
    No, I simply think they are making a bad decision consistently. Far too short-sighted
  9. KeithStone53151
    I probably should have done blue font. I've been pretty vocal in my frustration with the Brewers platooning frelick, turang, Mitchell, etc when they've all smacked lefties in the minors. I would truly hope they don't try to inhibit chourios growth in a similar manner
  10. KeithStone53151
    It's more odd that he's actually starting against same handed pitching. I assumed we'd only bat him against lefties and turn him into a platoon bat...
  11. KeithStone53151
    Nah, let him cry his way into the showers....
  12. KeithStone53151
    Somebody get this grown man a tissue.....
  13. KeithStone53151
    Look at minor league stats. He's just as good against lefties. You're looking at a small sample, in which he was shielded from facing lefties so was surely less comfortable against lefties when he did have to face them. This strategy by the Brewers making failures against same-handed pitching a pre-determined outcome.
  14. KeithStone53151
    Couldn't agree more, turning your top prospects into platoon bats is the Brewer way...
  15. KeithStone53151
    There's a ton of volatility in our projections this year, much more than a normal year. There are quite a few viable paths to significantly more than 6 wins of improvement on offense. That said, does your math account for the bullpen missing Williams for half the season AND needing to likely cover a lot more innings? Assuming we'll be as good as those 3 years with the bullpen is a significant assumption and could use a little more analysis. Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Devin Williams, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Guerra...all those guys had significant impact on those bullpens. All those guys were either high draft picks and/or highly regarded prospects that were expected to succeed(except Guerra). Compare that to our current crop. a lot of waiver claims and mid-level prospects that never or barely cracked our top 30 that kinda exploded to us out of nowhere. I have concerns about whether the guys that were good last year will be good this year...and consistently good going forward. Bullpen arms, aside from the elite, are very volatile year to year. Carlos Torres was a monster for a year, and then he faded. The Brewers are as good as any team at making something out of nothing with pitchers, we'll probably need a fair amount of that throughout the year this year unless I'm just way off base and all these guys are all truly solid late bloomers that continue into 2024 the same as 2023.
  16. KeithStone53151
    565 innings covered by relief last year, when I exclude 21 extra innings that averages to 3.35 innings per game covered by relief. Anyone interested in taking a bet that the Brewers relievers cover more than 3.35 innings/game this year? I bet the number is closer to 3.8 this year. The opener stat you're referring to is only going to impact a handful of teams at most. So Brewers had 8th fewest out of 26-27 comparable teams...maybe?
  17. KeithStone53151
    In addition, Brewers had the 8th fewest innings covered by the bullpen. Smart money is on the bullpen needing to cover more innings this year. And additionally factor in Williams missing 3 months.
  18. KeithStone53151
    I hope you hit, I hope I'm wrong. Fwiw, last year I predicted the Brewers record on the nose at 92 wins while everyone else was predicting 86-87. My thought was, we're going to add at the deadline and rattle off August/September wins while half of teams aren't trying to win. 34-20 in those 2 months.
  19. KeithStone53151
    Well initially, I thought the public thought the Pirates were going to be far worse than money lines indicate. I figured I was way too optimistic on them when I figured they'd be in the 75 win range...but that's actually about their line. My big concern honestly is simply the rotation, and quite honestly the bullpen. I think just about everyone is making a grand assumption that the bullpen is going to be good because it's always good and we didn't really lose anyone(except Williams). Bullpen pitchers are far too volatile to simply assume that all of Payamps, Megill, Peguero, etc are going to be as good or better than they were last year. Also, I'm probably as anti-Counsell as anyone on this board...but his absolute greatest strength as a manager was long term bullpen management. Will Murphy do as good a job? Maybe? And as much as one really shouldn't think this way, I think the Brewers are due for a down year after a long stretch of pretty darn good baseball. This year would make a ton of sense as a transitory type of year, and I also don't think there's much chance we get reinforcements this year at the deadline even if we play a bit above our heads. I think this is a year to get the future guys some mlb experience and see what we have in Hall, Ashby, Gasser, maybe Miz, Chourio, Mitchell, Wiemer, Turang, etc.
  20. KeithStone53151
    It's not really quite that simple. One could think we were a bit lucky with variance, in part due to a bullpen that literally has no choice but to be at least a little worse than 2023 considering just how good it was in 2023. Also factor in other teams in the division have improved while the Brewers have lost a couple key pieces. I'm going with 74 wins. I think we take a bit of a step back this year unfortunately. We're relying on so much youth this year, coupled with other teams in the division I think being better than projections think they are.
  21. KeithStone53151
    For Wiemer, I'm looking at k rate above all else. Spring stats are a tiny sample and progression is probably more important than overall results right now. But I'm seeing a 30% k rate right now. A change that significant for a guy that hasn't reeeeeeally established himself yet, AAA makes a ton of sense. Having him playing once every 3-4 days would be a disservice to the player and the Brewers long term. Wiemer with the power could be great if the swing changes work for him, but having him sit on the bench kinda takes the chance away from him.
  22. KeithStone53151
    One 1st round pick failed, quite a few others are established MLB regulars or better. That's a poor argument as well. I think the Brewers are trying to get their best players on the field, and they probably think he has the ability to play infield moreso than the other options. I have concerns about putting focus on a new position if it impacts the time he spends on improving on hitting, it's hard to know the impact right now. Frelick may very well go full Corbin Burnes and put immense effort into this offseason to both learn a new position AND improve at hitting. I'm also generally not worried about Frelick blocking Tyler Black or Wilken or Wiemer or anyone else. By the time either guy is ready, someone in the outfield or 2b/3b will be hurt or hitting like crap. These things tend to sort themselves out.
  23. KeithStone53151
    You're depiction of frelick does not even remotely do justice to the player he is currently, or the upside he has. What's he at like 300 MLB at bats? It's pretty widely accepted that young players that were once highly regarded prospects are very valuable and likely to improve with experience/reps. Having him force his way into the roster by further destroying AAA and/or doing just a wonderful job of sitting on the bench is just so bad. It's a disservice to the player and to the team in the long term. Having him try infield to see if he can handle it is a much better idea and a better effort at problem solving than what you've described.
  24. KeithStone53151
    With so many grizzled vets, will the Cardinals go back to being the primary enforcers of the unwritten rules?
  25. KeithStone53151
    I think a 3 year is just too much risk for the Brewers, though shrinking that down to a 2 year deal with an opt out and some level of injury protection for the Brewers could fit. We've historically done shorter deals late in the FA game and stretched the budget(i generally disagree with how much "stretching" is happening at a $130M budget, but that's a different topic), and 1 year of Snell could really bridge a very necessary gap from our current guys to Gasser/Miz/Rodriguez and the uncertainty of Ashby/Hall. This becomes more true pending the health of Miley. Having 2 locked in solid guys with 1 health risk and 2 spots up for competition is sooooo much stronger than 1 locked in, 1 health risk, 3 spots up for competition.
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