KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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Were there people out there that actually believed he might sign a short term deal?...well besides the Cubs fan forums people, who think every player is just dying to sign a team friendly deal with the Cubs.
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I'll note that this guy isn't the most reliable source, so FWIW. https://twitter.com/bucksbrett/status/1095090642483638272
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So basically what you're saying is...me saying "I think pitch framing is wildly overvalued" and "I don't think pitch framing saves 10 runs" cannot be proven definitively correct or incorrect by the data we have available to us? Maybe a front office has data that could prove it one way or another, but we as fans can't? So I have my opinion, you have yours...and that's perfectly fine.
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+1. I'll add there's no way statisticians can take every factor into account. Spoiler, I bet whoever catches against the Brewers gets a bunch of favorable framing calls whenever Braun is at bat. Probably the same for knuckleheads like Puig. Maybe the manager was recently in the umpires ear and the umpire will either give his team a couple favorable calls, or "teach him a lesson" and go the other way. The number of factors in play are off the charts, hence why it's so noteworthy how few players get on average more than 1 favorable call per game over the course of a season.
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Interesting. So you don't think routinely and regularly turning walks into strikeouts or changing a would-be 2-1 count into 1-2 can make even a 10 run difference over the course of a season? Saved baserunners, advantageous pitcher's counts, escaping a bases loaded jam on a borderline 3-2 pitch, etc. A look at how many extra strikes the good ones get called in their favor would probably be an eye opener for you. Most stats I find show at best 1-2 additional favorable calls per game for the best pitch framers with a significant sample on the season. And only 2 or 3 guys have averaged 1 or more additional favorable calls per game over the last 3 season...Grandal is not one of them. A significant majority of those favorable calls are probably not the critical situations that you are describing. The umpire will probably have less focus on a first pitch than on a critical full count pitch with runners on base.
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2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
KeithStone53151 replied to sveumrules's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Sure, but remember Brinson and Phillips graduated from the prospect list as well. Losing those two along with Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff is a big hit to take. It's why I think everyone is pretty much ok with the system pretty thin at the top for the time being. They're deserving of being ranked in the mid-low 20s as things stand today. Hopefully they have a few guys step up this year, have a good draft, etc. Plus, just have to throw this out there, depending on how this season goes there's always a chance they'll be sellers at the deadline. They definitely have assets with value, and could improve the system that way as well. Shhhhhhhhhh. Anywho, I think we still have a good amount of young talent. Quite a bit is at the MLB level, we have some "misses" in AA and AAA that could bounce back, and we have a lot of good young talent in the lower minors that could have good seasons and give themselves some prospect status by the end of the season. The system definitely isn't in the dire straits it was in 5-7 years ago. -
Stephen Vogt to Giants
KeithStone53151 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm glad he was able to latch on with someone. He always seemed like a good dude. -
That certainly helps, the more obvious motivation is probably not earning the paycheck he was used to for a couple years. Guys with one foot out the door tend to have every motivation to try and get back in the game. That's basically where Wade Miley was heading into 2018.
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As much disdain as I have for the Cubs(well mostly their "fans"), they won't be bad defensively barring injury. Especially if they can plug Russell back in at SS. I think pitch framing is wildly overvalued, I don't believe pitch framing can save double digit runs over the course of a season. Their primary defensive holes will be Schwarber in LF and Zobrist wherever he plays. Baez is also more of a solid defender at SS while he's an easy plus defender at 2b.
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This is a pretty ridiculous statement. Everything we've heard is how Braun is a terrific, supportive teammate. Things Brewers fans will apparently never let go of: - Hank Aaron admitted to taking a "greenie" once. - Paul Molitor used cocaine in the '80s. - Ryan Braun took banned substances. - Josh Hader made some offensive tweets when he was in high school. - And I guess now, Brett Lawrie had his photo taken while doing dumb frat boy type stuff. I sometimes think no other fan base is harder on their own players than Brewers fans. Ehh, Cubs fans were cursing the Murphy trade even as he was playing for them(and playing well) because of previous homophobic comments. That's admittedly worse than Josh Hader and others considering how recently they were made...but I don't think this type of nonsense is specific to Brewer fans.
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I think many here are ignoring the potential upside of Lawrie, I also think many are too focused on what he did 3-5 years ago. He's always been much more talented than his MLB numbers have indicated. Lawrie won't see the MLB club if he's only doing OK in AAA. But I think his upside is an all-star at the MLB level, just as it was in his time in the minors. If his injury issues are behind him and his head is in the right place, this could be a steal.
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He probably won't make the team, that's fair. But I have to think he had his eye on Thames/Perez roster spots.
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Usually at the point he's at guys are freshmen in college. I understand many are going to disagree and that's fine, there's no right or wrong answer here. But on this point specifically...Sixto will be 21 in July. That's roughly the age that many college Juniors are drafted. Most high school arms projected in the top 3-4 rounds have a better offspeed offering than Sixto does currently, and any college arm drafted in the top 5 rounds will be miles ahead of him with offspeed offerings. Scouts basically see a projectable guy that can control a 97-100 mph fastball very well and are ignoring every other red flag.
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Well, I did say there wasn't as much downside as some people suggest. I know there is some, but I think the benefits far outweigh that. Matching up with the staffs of Chicago and LAD is thinking way too far ahead IMO. You have to get there in the first place, and more LHB's helps you do that because you will face far more RHP's throughout the year. I also think there was a flukey quality to their struggles against LHP's. I see no reason they shouldn't be able to hit them well. And I'd take Marwin too, but I think he will get 2-3 times as many years and 3-4 times as much guaranteed money. LHP would definitely be a concern of mine if we get Moose...especially considering Grandal is much better against RHP...but Aguilar and Schoop were a big part of our struggles against LHP. I'm expecting Braun to have a better season, and Aguilar to at least be a bit better than his 2nd half version in the low 700s. Also factor in no more Schoop and Hiura/Dubon/Perez as options at least against LHP(Hiura everyday)...we should be better. All else fails, we find a RH version of Granderson at the deadline to solely mash lefties.
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From what I've read on Sanchez, his offspeed stuff is way behind his fasball. It either barely gets mentioned or they just say "has plus potential". Usually at the point he's at, guys have 2 good pitches and are refining a 3rd. This guy has 1 good pitch and is working on 2. Hence, much more of a project. Considering his BB rate, it makes me wonder if he's even throwing his other stuff to work on/improve it or if he's just throwing fastballs and going for results. He's not going to be able to simply blow everyone away with heat when he reaches AA, heck his A+ numbers aren't even that impressive considering it's the FSL.
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Those lists all assume the guy is healthy and he won't have yet another arm injury. I find it a bit ridiculous that guys currently undergoing TJ are getting listed in the upper teens. There's a ton of risk whether guys will come back from that and be the same pitcher. Sanchez has had both elbow and shoulder injuries already, he's an undersized RHP(like Peralta), his offspeed stuff is widely reported as mediocre...those are all pretty severe red flags. I just think the prospect guys are dreaming on Sanchez a bit too much, and they have a history of ignoring injuries completely when evaluating guys. As for Peralta, they took him out of the rotation because he didn't have it at that time...same reason they took Chase out of the rotation. Peralta has shown flashes of being a star at the MLB level and is only 22. He's not a complete product, but there's enough to like and he's had enough success that his value has gone up tremendously since his time in the minors.
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It really depends on cost, but I wouldn't hate this move. Yes we run into a problem if Hiura comes up and rakes in June/July, but our lineup will be ridiculously deep all season. We can even afford an infield injury without really skipping a beat. I also want to add, I think the hope is that many of our AAA guys that have fallen out of favor have big years specifically for the goal of trading some of them away. Not Hiura, not Dubon...but maybe Brown, maybe Erceg, maybe Grisham. We seem relatively set at most positions for the forseeable future, even moreso if we sign Moustakas for something like 3/27. Any of those upper minors guys having a big season would probably make them trade bait.
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One of probably a few more meh signings. Most of these don't make the MLB roster, every so often you get a Miley or Aguilar though. No risk, potentially high reward.
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Ehh, I personally think Sanchez is pretty overrated on those lists, and he has only pitched in the lower levels of the minors. Peralta has shown that he can get major league hitters out. I think they are much closer in value than you do. I was just going position for position, too, rather than a straight comparison of prospect value. The closest Brewer equivalent to Alfaro is obviously Nottingham, although Alfaro does rate higher. Sanchez is tough because the Brewers don't have a good straight comparison. I went with Peralta because of his small stature and electric stuff. I think Ashby is the closest comparison to Stewart, although I personally think he's got a much higher upside. I think he rates higher than a role-player prospect. I just went low-level lefty for low-level lefty. I'm with Joey on this one. I'm most shocked by how much you undervalue Peralta of all players on the list. You're basically saying he's similar value to Ray, who is a couple spots outside top 100 lists. Peralta if eligible would probably be in the 30s or better on these lists. His value is probably pretty close to Sanchez, I like Peralta better but I can understand an argument either way. I also think you are underselling Ashby and Nottingham a bit and overselling Sanchez. I can't believe how high he's ranked considering his offspeed stuff is mediocre at best right now, I know scouts love his fastball and his command of it but that's really all he's got. Then you factor in his injury issues...no way should he be valued as the 20th best prospect in baseball.
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Any projection system that shows the Cubs pitching staff finally coming down to earth and being mediocre or worse gets an A+ in my book.
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The Yelich package probably had twice as much value as this package, maybe more. Well yeah, it was 5 years vs 2 years for players with not dissimilar production so twice as much value makes sense even if there are obviously other considerations in play too. But as a baseline it makes sense. Alfaro is also probably being underrated by many. It's 5 years of team control for a catcher who has a 99 OPS+ (i.e far above average for a catcher) in his first 500 PAs, The reason we mention Yelich, in the rumors thread a significant number of people were expecting a return similar to Yelich. It was obvious from day 1 that Realmuto was never going to fetch that type of return.
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The Yelich package probably had twice as much value as this package, maybe more.
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I know Sanchez is highly ranked, but there's a ton of risk in that arm and he's still in the low minors. A ton of red flags. This package looks like much less than some of the packages discussed in the Realmuto thread. Notably Hiura has more value than the entire package by himself.
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Is this trade for Mirotic a good move? I don't know a ton about basketball, especially outside the Bucks.