KeithStone53151

Regarding challenges, I can think of at least a handful off hand that the umps in New York simply got wrong last year. I still think CC wasn't great with the challenges, he was never going to be in the 70% arena. But he should have been much more bottom 1/3 of teams than an outlier way below everyone else.

Seriously though. That guy could almost quit baseball now and still get into the hall. Trout I could see teams bidding for in the manner that was anticipated for Harper.

Now this makes some sense. I don't know that I buy that they haven't been involved, but Machado is actually a pretty nice fit for the Padres. I've said in multiple threads, but I think the Padres making a bit of a splash and ramping up toward contention makes a ton of sense. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/padres-rumors-pursuing-manny-machado-interest.html

I like having Perez on the team, but I think he's a bit overused is all and I think you feel the same. Frankly, Perez should probably see some time in most games...but primarily in double switches and as a defensive replacement. And with his versatility, once he enters the game he should almost never leave the game. If everything is going right, he should almost never start. He really shouldn't be the 2nd guy in line to start at any position besides SS if there's an injury. At the moment, he's probably 2nd in line to start at SS and 3b...and is in a soft platoon with CS at 2b. I don't disagree about his ability, but how is it realistic to have him on the 25 as a utility guy and not be the primary back-up at multiple positions even if everyone is healthy? Especially if you are one of the people saying they should often carry 13 pitchers? The numbers just don't work out at all. There are 8 positions to back up and only 4 back-ups. You can cover outfield with one back-up, but catcher takes one and only one of those spots. That leaves 2 players to back-up 4 infield spots. Who are you signing to be ahead of Perez at all 4 of them? That's a very good point. I guess theoretically, it would be best to have guys in AAA ready to fill in. At 3b for example, if Shaw went down...it would be best to have Erceg ready to get called up and fill in and be better than Perez. I understand it's completely unrealistic to have a better guy at every spot. Perez will probably have to be the best backup option at SS and 2b at minimum...and possibly 3b. He'll probably be the 3rd best option at every other position besides pitcher. There is an additional argument that Dubon will be ready to steal Perez job from him at some point this year...and Perez will be off the roster and completely replaced by Dubon to open 2020.

Regarding the Brewers as a fit or creating content around a potential mystery team in general? They spent an entire weekend talking about mystery teams on MLB Network Radio. So mlbTR is no different on that front. As far as the Brewers... he's a clear upgrade at either ss or 3b and the Brewers appear to be contenders in 2019. So Machado obviously makes sense from that aspect. The chances of the Brewers signing Machado are slim due to probably payroll constraints. I think most of their potential mystery teams are stretches. The Cardinals, Mets, Brewers, and Twins all seem very unlikely to me...and don't make much sense. The Angels and Padres make some sense as a mystery team, but I still think they are grasping at straws with those 2 teams a bit.

I like having Perez on the team, but I think he's a bit overused is all and I think you feel the same. Frankly, Perez should probably see some time in most games...but primarily in double switches and as a defensive replacement. And with his versatility, once he enters the game he should almost never leave the game. If everything is going right, he should almost never start. He really shouldn't be the 2nd guy in line to start at any position besides SS if there's an injury. At the moment, he's probably 2nd in line to start at SS and 3b...and is in a soft platoon with CS at 2b.

I believe I saw somewhere the Nats hitting coach saying that Harper got too caught up with the launch angle stuff the first half of 2018. When he reverted back to just trying to drive baseballs, that's when he got back to success. I think it's a bit crazy to expect a steep decline from Harper. He's got a cannon and that isn't going anywhere anytime soon, and his body type doesn't seem likely to have a steep speed dropoff. I wonder if many teams simply didn't even begin to get involved because of the anticipated ask. Why would the Brewers waste time with more than a courtesy call when there is 0 chance we can afford 30 million? Frankly, I'm ready for these guys to sign a contract.

I could see Grandal following a similar trajectory as Victor Martinez. His bat will play at 1b/DH, so he could easily transition in his mid 30s when his catching skills diminish. Victor Martinez got 4/50 from 32-35 and then 4/64(which was a dumb contract off a career year) from 36-39. The 4/50 worked out well for the team and was signed in 2010. I'm thinking a good year nets him at least a 3 or 4 year deal, I will agree that it probably won't be at $18 million AAV...but 14-15 with a long term guarantee is realistic if he mashes here as expected.

...or who starts games unnecessarily because the manager can't stop himself from doing so. Perez started like 80 games last year. I don't know how that compares to other super subs but it doesn't seem like much so this might be a bit of hyperbole. Chris Taylor is a super sub. Ben Zobrist in his prime was a super sub. Hernan Perez...not so much. There's a big difference between Perez and those 2 guys...primarily that they can hit.

A reminder of Grandal's 2018 spray chart as if it were in Miller Park. How many outs turn into HR based on park alone? I bet Grandal would have 30-40 higher OPS had he been a Brewer last year than a Dodger, if he had an identical batted ball profile. How much does Grandal help his cause in FA if he hits for 900 OPS and 35 dingers this year? I think a team would be crazy not to give him at least the 4/$60M deal he reportedly turned down.

This thing says Brewers games averaged 3 hours and 7 minutes. I honestly don't buy that though. There were some marathon games that must have driven up the average. I can think of very few games that were 2 hours and 45 minutes or less. One other side thing, I was super impressed by the Giants attendance numbers considering they were a 73 win team. All the other teams that were top 12 in attendance were either playoff teams or serious contenders into September https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-misc.shtml

Brachs on the wrong side of 30 (a few days shy of 33 on opening day), had his best season at age 29 and has been getting worse each year. Typical Cubs buy of an aging reliever that has low upside, but high floor. Is he better than Matt Albers? Absolutely. Is he better than anyone else in the Brewers bullpen? nope. Given that the Cubs can't afford anything else, it's probably their best option. I think you guys are underestimating Brach a bit. He's pitched in the AL east and in a very hitter friendly park the last 4 years. Career ERA 3.08 with more than a K per inning. Down the stretch for Atlanta he rocked a sub 2 in a pennant race. I would argue that Brach is a better pitcher than Jeffress, only behind Hader and Knebel in our bullpen.

Hard to imagine a situation where he wouldn't opt out after 3 years but would also turn down his player option and instead take the buyout. This will likely end up being 3/$40ish million or 5/$60M

Rosenthal broke it out as well. I think it's $4/50M with the opt out at 3. The player option piece looks correct, and would get him to $60M if Pollock exercises his end.

USA today posted in their article that apparently game times went down from 2017 to 2018. They claim teh average game time was 3 hours and 44 seconds. I don't buy that personally. I feel like the average game I attended was closer to 3.5 hours than 3 hours.

I'm a bit annoyed that the Cubs got such a good deal on Brach. He's a very good pitcher, has been good for a while in a tough environment and hasn't really showed signs of slowing down.

This guy says 4/$50M guarantee now...

The Dodgers prior to this deal were just under $20M under the luxury tax for 2019. This probably moves them to between $5 and 10M from the luxury tax depending on how the contract is paid out. This almost definitively slams the door on any chances they go for Harper as their outfield is now set.

Escalators and opt outs would definitely move this closer to being a more fair deal given Pollock's upside if he can stay healthy. I'll be curious to see the final details.

Passan says 5/$60M range. That might seem a touch low, but for a 31 year old injury prone guy that played in a hitter friendly park...a 5 year guarantee is a pretty good deal.

Does anyone else feel like mlbtraderumors is seriously grasping at straws here? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/trying-to-identify-mystery-teams-for-manny-machado.html

A couple other moves that I'm not sure were in the article. Quintin Berry must have made an impression in his time here.

A couple notables for me were Jim Henderson as A ball pitching coach and Hiram Burgos Arizona league pitching coach. I feel like Burgos will be an excellent pitching coach, he really maximized his results based on his physical ability. Doesn't seem to be significant churn at the upper levels. Mostly it was guys getting bumped up a level, very few if any brand new faces at the top 3 levels.

This explains why Mussina got in...