KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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Passan tweeted it is a mutual option, NOT a team option.
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I've seen multiple sources say team option. A mutual or player option would make way more sense. This honestly seems to good to be true.
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This went from a great deal to a ridiculous deal with the team option. Grandal must have really wanted to come here.
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I'll also add that I really don't think Keuchel is a very good pitcher. He's a soft tossing contact guy that relies on guys chasing junk. I have no idea how he's had success to this point, but don't think it's sustainable. I know my stance on Keuchel is a minority opinion, if given the choice between Keuchel and Miley at the same contract...I would pick Miley. I think he's the better pitcher...and I really don't like Miley all that much either. I know this is contrary to my comments above. For whatever reason, Keuchel is viewed as a TOR arm and is still relatively young. The industry generally views him much more highly than I do, hence why I think someone in the industry gives him a big contract. That and the remaining FA SP are really bad. Names that jump out at me are Ervin Santana, Wade Miley, Gio Gonzalez, Jeremy Hellickson, and Marco Estrada as the next best option behind Keuchel. Not really much to see there...
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I'm a bit surprised too, I've seen very few rumors on him. I guess you can hope, I just can't imagine Boras not finding a way to work out a significant multi-year deal for him. He's far and away the best SP on the market.
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I am going to guess Earth where he has 192 career appearances at second base versus Aguilar having 7 career appearances at third. And Braun is a 3rd baseman...right? My point is Dietrich is not a 2b and shouldn't be considered one. He's an awful defender really everywhere, but especially 2b. He also hasn't seen significant action at 2b in a couple years. Also Earth isn't a universe last I checked...........
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There's virtually a 100% chance that Keuchel is out of our price range. Corbin signed for over $100 million and Keuchel is a Boras client. It's roughly as useful as discussing whether we can sign Bryce Harper.
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I'm going to nitpick those numbers above. In what universe is Moustakas a negative value defender? Also, in what universe is Diedrich a 2b?...that's like calling Aguilar a 3b. I like Cabrera for cheap, I also like Flores for cheap...if possible. I don't hate the idea of Walker/Harrison if other options don't work out or their market collapses to the point of minor league deals.
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Manny Pina drawing trade interest
KeithStone53151 replied to adambr2's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
THIS Pina isn't easily replaceable, but there might be more value in trading him and signing/trading for a slightly worse version of Pina as the backup to Grandal. That's the crux of the debate here. -
Nobody was questioning cash flow. Though I would not assume anything unless you know how the debt is structured. Someone was questioning the owners spending any money. So some examples were given. The biggest reason I seriously doubt cash flow is an issue is the value of the Brewers. I know it doesn't exist on their books yet, but if they ever needed cash...banks would be lining up to borrow the team money. If they didn't have $50 million or whatever amount laying around to renovate Maryvale, they would have no issue borrowing for the project. I of course am speculating and could be wrong, I'm simply doubting cash is an issue for that among many other reasons. And my point is none of that outgoing cash mentioned above has a significant impact on the team's profitability in a given year. Not like player salaries, which I assume are generally expensed in the year paid aside from signing bonuses/deferred money and impact profitability right away. Those are long term investments that will provide value for a long time.
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2019 Breakouts and Comebacks in the Minors
KeithStone53151 replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Breakouts: Braden Webb - He kinda broke out last year, so he doesn't completely fit. I think this guy is going to be a force this year. I anticipate him being part of the MLB bullpen picture down the stretch kinda like Burnes last year. Nottingham - I love a guy with excellent work ethic. I think he crushes AAA and gives the Brewers a lot to think about in June/July. Caden Lemons - This is more wishful thinking than anything. Would love to see things start to align for this guy. He was a big time project when drafted, but very high ceiling. Comeback/bounceback: Lucas Erceg - I think he was better than his numbers last year, and the defense is pretty much ready. Micah Bello - He started off really well for a few games, then tailed off. I think he'll be a good player and will have a solid 1st full year. Tyrone Taylor - Might fit better as a breakout as last season he was ok. The Brewers dumping Broxton/Santana and adding Taylor to the 40 man says alot about what they think of him. Also scouting reports have been very positive about his new mechanics at the plate, much more likely to tap into his power. I'll also add that I'm expecting Hiura to destroy AAA pitching and have much better numbers than his measly 821 ops in 2018 before getting the call in June. -
The high A team that was purchased is probably expected to make at least some money or at worst break even. I don't think Mark A would buy it if the business was bleeding money. Also the training complex and concessions/concourse upgrades are depreciable assets, so the impact on that operating income number reported by Forbes is a fraction of the cash paid. I personally doubt cash flow is a significant concern for the Brewers for so many reasons. I've seen numbers that player salaries are generally around 40-42% of revenue. You could of course push it higher, but then obviously the team is making less money. The Brewers are very likely to make significantly more than the $255M in 2017 for many reasons, but do revenues go all the way up to $300M? That seems like a stretch to project revenue up there. $280M is probably a reasonable number for 2019. A $140M payroll would be players getting 50% of the revenue. Hard to imagine going much past that without losing money. And the higher payroll goes, the higher payroll taxes and benefits for players go as well.
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Manny Pina drawing trade interest
KeithStone53151 replied to adambr2's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
This absolutely depends on the price. Others had made a good point to me previously that having a solid backup option behind Grandal is important, so you wouldn't trade Pina to trade him. But everyone has a price, and we certainly can fill the backup catcher position in free agency for relatively cheap. That player would be worse than Pina(and Grandal), but probably better than Kratz. We certainly can and should listen on Pina. Best case scenario I guess would be to get a solid haul for Pina and sign someone that specifically hits LHP well...as both Pina and Grandal are much better against RHP. I imagine for the backup catcher that defense would be the priority. -
I'll add to the discussion from Forbes, the $67 million number is operating income not net income. There is quite a bit else below the line that impacts end of day profitability.
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I know definitively that someone in the Marcus family, or Marcus Corp, has a minority stake. I would expect there are others with a minority stake as well. I'm sure they have a platform to make their voices heard, but Mark A certainly has more than half the stake in the Brewers and is the one making decisions.
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Competitive window or This year’s draft talent??
KeithStone53151 replied to BrewersAA's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It makes sense to be willing to lose draft picks to better the MLB ballclub if you are in a competitive window. I guess the draft class could be a consideration, but it is probably much more trying to maximize our chances in this 3-4 year window he's built. Frankly, I don't think a window has been defined yet. It's likely the window close when Yelich approaches free agency and Cain slows down, but that's still a long ways off and the Brewers could retool the minors enough in the next couple years to avoid going through a full rebuild in 3 years. At the moment, we don't have any albatross contracts on the books and generally a lot of flexibility to add players. -
Im curious where your profit number is coming from of 67 million. Is that documented somewhere?
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2019 Lineup Thread (Batting Order)
KeithStone53151 replied to BrewCrewBlueDevil's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Without looking, id bet over 30% on all guys i mentioned. Villar might be 28, the other 3 might even be closer to 35. K rates were ugly -
There is no way in the world the Brewers could add 67% to their payroll! Nobody knows what the tv deal will be, except it will be less than 1/4 of the Cubs or Dodgers deal. Increased attendance won't bring much, and costs are increasing. Their MAX will be around $117-120M for this year. Right now I too think they are at that sum, so unless a trade of Anderson and/or Thames comes to pass, Stearns is done. Im not sure where you are getting 67%. Brewers ending payroll last year was 120m. A 67% increase would bump it to around 200m. You must be comparing opening day payroll of 90m, which is a meaningless comparison. I also said i think they could go 150m without losing money. Not that they'd go that high. Their opening day payroll might be around the number you suggested, but i would be surprised if we are both a contender and end the season with under 130m payroll. As for the tv deal, i would look at the rays recent tv deal for what we likely can get. I don't have the numbers offhand, but you can certainly find it on google and it would be a game changing number.
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A reminder that opening day payroll is not final payroll. Last year we opened at $91M and closed at $121M according to Cots. We definitely want flexibility to add at the deadline.
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2019 Lineup Thread (Batting Order)
KeithStone53151 replied to BrewCrewBlueDevil's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
CF Cain - 11.5% BB, 15.2% K LF Braun - 7.6% BB, 19% K RF Yelich - 10.4% BB, 20.7% K 1B Aguilar - 10.2% BB, 25.3% K C Grandal - 13.9% BB, 23.9% K 3B Shaw - 13.3% BB, 18.4% K SS Arcia - 4.1% BB, 23.8% K 2B Perez - 5.1% BB, 21.3% K RF Gamel - 10.6% BB, 20.8% K 2B Spangenberg - 7.6% BB, 32.8% K C Pina - 6.2% BB, 18.4% K Seems like Stearns is intentionally getting rid of the high K guys like Broxton, Santana, Phillips, Villar, etc. I'll add that I'd bet good money on Arcia having a higher BB rate and lower K rate this year. Thames also fits the high k mold like the previously mentioned 3. -
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/ This is the article I was referencing. I believe I've seen other sources verify the 2019 number, but this is the only source I can find quickly.
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We are in unchartered territory with payroll. I see us somewhere between $115 and $120 million payroll depending how you count the min salaries, with at least a few million possible in incentives. With how low payroll was the prior couple years, the imminent new tv deal, extra revenue coming from increased ticket prices and likely increased attendance due to the team being good, and baseball generally having much more revenue than past years...I personally could see us around $150 million without losing money, assuming the Brewers contend. We certainly won't open that high and might not even push payroll that high with mid-season acquisitions. That's my opinion on absolute max payroll. I think it would be unlikely we add more than $10 million in payroll at this point to open the season.
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Shaw 4.675 Davies 2.6 Both of those were higher than I anticipated.
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Decimated is a very strong word, but man in this case it seriously doesn't seem strong enough. Did we have even 1 player from the likely starting 11 on defense make it through the entire season? Blake Martinez I think made it, but I think he's the only one. And then backups got hurt and backups of the backups. The Packers tend to have more injury issues than most teams, but I don't think I've ever seen so many guys get hurt in any other season...and most of them were defensive players. But I will agree, defense definitely seemed to be trending up. With a better offense that could shave their amount of time on the field by a couple minutes per game, the defense might have been borderline good. We really didn't have much of an excuse for our struggles on offense. Rodgers had a bad year, and our scheme/playcalling simply was bad.