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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    Haha jeez, DEFINITELY a buyers market for quality SP. Has this ever happened?
  2. KeithStone53151
    Yeah Woodruff isn't much of a prospect at this point. He's an mlb arm, and really all 3 of those top guys are. Peralta may end up in the minors to work on things...but that will be more of an odd man out situation. For me, you are looking at 5 years of team control for Woodruff or 6 years for Peralta. Peralta probably has a bit more upside but much needs much more improvement than Woodruff to reach his ceiling. All Woodruff really NEEDS to do is maintain consistency and do what he did in Sept/Oct...and he'll be a very successful starting pitcher going forward. Much easier said than done. And again, Woodruff is the better pitcher right now based on what we saw the 2nd half last year and playoffs. There are arguments both ways, I don't think it's really fair to put them on completely different tiers though.
  3. KeithStone53151
    I think winter meetings will be a bit more active than usual this month. I think Boras has learned his lesson about trying to wait until mid-February and assume a team will panic. Another bad winter would probably cost him a lot of big free agents...he did a lot of his players a severe injustice with his negotiation tactics last offseason.
  4. KeithStone53151
    I view both him and Peralta as interchangably our 3rd best realistic trade option. Excluding guys like Yelich, Hader, Arcia, other more established MLB pieces. For me, Burnes is our best prospect/sub-1 year service time guy...followed relatively closely by Hiura. Woodruff and Peralta for me are both roughly the caliber of a top 40-50 prospect in MLB. Both I view as relatively similar value to Sheffield that went in the Paxton deal. Those 3 I think are going to be fairly interchangable in terms of value depending on which scout you talk to. Of the 3, Woodruff is the best pitcher right now...but the other 2 are a bit younger so could be better in a couple years. A reminder that young, impact pitching is the ultimate value in baseball today. Teams are generally very hesitant to give up a elite pitching prospects in trades. I'm sure we'll see arguments that each of our pitching prospects has something to improve, but that's true of literally every pitcher in baseball. Even a guy like Degrom is probably heading into the offseason trying to figure out how he can be better.
  5. KeithStone53151
    I can completely understand the argument of not giving up Woodruff/Peralta for Bumgarner. I suspect the Yankees would not have given up Sheffield for Bumgarner, but would do it for Paxton due to the team control. That extra year more than makes up for the injury/workload issues, despite Bumgarner being the superior pitcher. From the Giants standpoint, they probably have a very long and brutal rebuild coming whenever they finally pull the plug on their current roster. Think Astros/Cubs level rebuild, they could never flip that roster around as quick as Stearns did the Brewers. They'd probably be smart to trade any contracts that have significant value and let other bad contracts simply ride out their last couple years.
  6. KeithStone53151
    I feel like for woodruff plus to be on the move, we need another piece. Maybe mb and will Smith for woodruff, stokes, feliciano. I don't know that I'd do that, but hard to give up a guy like woodruff for 1 year of 1 guy. And i understand it's likely we would get a comp pick when mb leaves.
  7. KeithStone53151
    If those are the only 2 options, it's a no brainer. Shaw could have played 2nd or 1st primarily for a year until Hiura came up. I still think there's a good chance Moustakas is a Brewer on a 2 or 3 year deal. Shaw would play mostly 2b and then you sort out playing time when Hiura comes up. I'm fully expecting a massive regression from Aguilar, so in my head I would then pencil Shaw in at 1b with Hiura at 2b and Aguilar in a PH role again.
  8. KeithStone53151
    Trading Rodgers for 3-4 1st rounders would be a better argument if he was 38 or 39 and another team was seriously stupid. It's not really realistic right now though. Plus, a majority of those would probably be between picks 24 and 32 overall considering wherever he goes would likely start winning immediately...so long as it wasn't to the 2019 Browns led by Mike McCarthy. Going this route would basically be the Rams current model. The Rams stockpiled draft picks and they struck gold with Goff...then they spent like drunken sailors and are basically all in over the next 2 years. Their cap situation is going to be an absolute disaster in 3+ years with a lot of old players, but right now they have an elite roster across the board and are playing for superbowls the next 2-3 years.
  9. KeithStone53151
    Sure, but muscle injuries like the calf one he had are very easy to crop up again, even after a point where he looks fully healed by all measures. Just look at Braun and his oblique injuries. Also if he has made subtle changes to protect against injury, something else could crop up. All excellent points, hard to argue any of that...I won't try. If the Braves feel good about the move, more power to them. It's a glove-like fit in Atlanta for him, I believe they have a 3b prospect in AA or AAA so a 1 year deal works really well for that team.
  10. KeithStone53151
    I imagine medicals were combed over pretty thoroughly and maybe he even showed videos of recent workouts. Something to convince the Braves he's healthy and ready to produce.
  11. KeithStone53151
    Agreed, not interested at all at that price. That will be a nice move for the Braves. Their best bats are LH for the most part. If Donaldson has a big year, they could be a serious contender with a front side lineup of Acuna, Albies, Freeman, Donaldson, Markakis.
  12. KeithStone53151
    I wouldn't say hard no, but I can't imagine what a structure of this deal would look like. They'd have to eat at least 60-70% of the contract. I can't imagine Cano gets traded unless they simply don't want the guy and are willing to lose the trade badly to simply punt him off the team. Maybe the Yankees step up and take him and 40% of his contract for nobody prospects...with the Mariners simply paying 60% of his contract to get rid of him. If I'm the Mariners, I wouldn't do that unless for whatever chemistry or appearance reasons they simply refuse to have him on the team next year.
  13. KeithStone53151
    The guy that broke the Moustakas trade hours before anyone else, says Marlins demanding Hiura and Brewers not interested. I'm taking this with a grain of salt myself, you all can have your own opinion. https://twitter.com/bucksbrett/status/1067076583452786689
  14. KeithStone53151
    No. I generally disagree, especially considering i think burnes is more valuable than hiura. But realistically one of those 2 is probably a centerpiece.
  15. KeithStone53151
    You'd think they could relatively easily roll that into the personal finance class referenced earlier, because you are spot on. It blows my mind how many people I know ran up big credit card debt on stupid junk like xbox games and clothes in their early 20s, taking advantage of the 0% interest for the first year and then next thing they know...their bill is $5k and they start paying interest at a 20% rate. Maybe I was just lucky that it was drilled in to me by my parents in my early-mid teens that credit cards and the interest on them is dangerous. That and the whole compounding returns thing referenced above. Fortunately, going into the accounting field required me to take a lot of stats, finance, etc...it is seriously amazing looking at my total contributions to my 401k versus my current market value at the moment. I'm only 31 and my first job didn't offer a 401k, so I've been contributing for 7 years or so and my market value is almost double my actual contributions. I put 100% to various index funds, so it's not like I'm being fancy with how I invest. To me, compounding returns and such seems second nature...to the point that it surprises me that anyone would make the error you described.
  16. KeithStone53151
    I have less than 0 interest in Grandal because of the draft pick compensation. I don't want to give up another pick, and in this case to sign a very questionable defender behind the plate that will certainly split time with Pina.
  17. KeithStone53151
    Not to take away from Beltre, but I'm not sure he's in the top 5 3b ever. Mike Schmidt, Brooks Robinson, Wade Boggs, Eddie Mathews, George Brett, Chipper...all I think are a tier above Beltre. I can't think of any others offhand that jump out as better 3b than Beltre. For me, a first ballot guy has to be like Griffey or Mariano Rivera...extended stretches of being one of the very best in baseball. I'm not sure Beltre ever won an MVP, and he really wasn't THAT good a player until his move to hitter friendly Texas in his 30s. Before that he was a upper 700s OPS guy that played an elite 3b. His case for the hall relies on being very good, not great, and healthy for a long time...and really tallying up counting stats. It's still a good case, just not first ballot for me.
  18. KeithStone53151
    I would strongly argue it is more common for elite bats to rake almost immediately upon call up than for them to struggle. Acuna, bellinger, soto, bryant, judge, benintendi, lindor, etc.
  19. KeithStone53151
    We don't have the flexibility to take a $60 million gamble, this is similar to the Cubs gamble on Chatwood...which clearly did NOT pay off, at least to this point.
  20. KeithStone53151
    He might not be a first ballot guy, but he's a virtual lock.
  21. KeithStone53151
    Hard no. Too much injury history for me, not interested at that price.
  22. KeithStone53151
    I'm a bit surprised the red sox struggle against LHP. Most of their best hitters are RH. Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, Pierce(playoffs). I'm sure that factored in to their decision though. Make me think they go after 1 more and try to open the season with 3 LHP.
  23. KeithStone53151
    It's obviously not definitive of anything, but it certainly drives the narrative. It's suspicious at the very least.
  24. KeithStone53151
    For those like me, that thinks the NFL specifically has some issues with tilting the odds for the team of choice. And naturally, their team of choice in this case is a big market team. http://dailysnark.com/referee-winks-at-jared-goff-after-giving-rams-bs-pass-interference-call-video/
  25. KeithStone53151
    Paxton absolutely made sense for us, just not at that price. I personally think burnes is a better prospect than sheffield. Comparable is probably peralta, diplan, stokes. Still a lot, i wouldn't have hated it. If burnes was included it would have been dreadful
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