KeithStone53151

I feel like Kodi will eventually wind up in the bullpen, where hopefully he can be 90% as filthy as Hader in a similar role. I'm still hopeful he can iron out the command a bit more but I don't find it likely.

That is simply not true. The Astros, Nationals, Yankees, Indians, and Dodgers could all easily offer a more attractive top two prospects than a Burnes and Peralta led package. The Astros, Indians, and Nationals don't really have the need. I omitted them for that reason. Their rotations are so solid. With the Yankees it's close, and the Dodgers would have to include Verdugo to match those 2 and I really don't think they'd do that...maybe for Syndergaard but not Degrom. Also, Degrom's salary on the year isn't huge but it might be enough to push certain teams over the luxury tax...I'm especially looking at the Dodgers.

Well you can because it's arguable that they were desperation overpays to begin with and even if they were, the Mets have no reason to trade either deGrom or Syndergaard unless someone gives them a desperation overpay. The Chapman trade is unquestionably a desperation overpay. The others are a bit more arguable but still probably overpays. And that's fair, maybe they'll do like the Rays and ask for the moon...we stick to what we are willing to give up and if it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. I think a Burnes + Peralta + Phillips caliber offer will be very competitive, potentially the best offer they'll get for Degrom unless Atlanta packages up a few pitchers or the Dodgers become stupid and include Buehler. Nothing Atlanta, LA, or NY have done recently make me think they'll drastically overpay for a SP...those are very good front offices that value their prospect capital. If that offer is the best they get, maybe they opt to keep Degrom and try again in the offseason. Hard to know for sure, we'll see what happens. If it's me, I'm not including Hiura in a trade. He's basically as blue-chip as it gets, and fills an obvious need.

I actually think Logan significantly improved through his outing. I've said multiple times that I really think Logan needs a 25-30 pitch outing to work on stuff. Dude was hitting mid-90s later on in the outing with good movement and you could see him gaining confidence. I still wouldn't use him in any situation other than what we saw, but I think he did some good things that he can hopefully build on.

4 of those 5 you listed were desperation overpays, and Gioloto was being shopped for some weird, unknown reason by the Nationals. You can't say "well Degrom will cost this because some insane GM's made crazy desperation offers in the last couple years". I think the last offer I floated was Burnes + Hiura + Phillips + a couple lesser guys. It's easy to say "people are going to offer better prospects than hiura for these guys". Who are these contenders that will do that? I could see a non-contender targeting Syndergaard, but not Degrom and he's the guy I would target of the 2. I've been continually pointing out specifics as to why I think a package I've laid out will work, and it gets continually refuted with "well someone will offer better prospects". The only contending team that can beat a Burnes + Peralta led package easily is Atlanta...and that would be tricky being a divisional trade and I'm not entirely sure Atlanta will be motivated to make that move. The dumb teams like Chicago and Boston have already spent all their prospect capital and don't have the farm to throw their hat in on someone like Degrom. The contenders with prospect capital actually value their prospect capital and won't make dumb trades like those 2 teams.

I started Arrieta in my fantasy league, I still couldn't be happier to see the Brewers demolish him. Braun needs to start taking HR cuts...that's the only way the other team won't be able to defend it. He must lead the league in lowest batting average on over 100 mph exit velocity contact.

Atlanta though has a lot more than Acuna. MLB.com has them with 5 additional players, all pitchers no less, in their top 50. It would actually be a very wise move for them to send two of them to NY for either Degrom or Syndergaard because surely some of them will eventually lose some value. It might also help the Brewers if NYM trades both of their pitchers and Atlanta gives up some pitching prospects for one of them because maybe then the Metropolitans would be more likely to accept positional prospects like Ray and Phillips as secondary pieces as opposed to Burns or Peralta. I wonder if Hiura, Ray, Phillips and maybe a lesser pitcher like Ponce or Dilplan would be enough. Probably depends on how the Mets view Ray. Let’s look at the overall hypothetical picture for the Mets: They trade Syndergaard and Degrom and acquire, hypothetically: Allard, Soroka, Toussaint, Hiura, Ray, Phillips and Diplan. Enough? I'd honestly prefer to give up the pitching prospects and keep Hiura. Another reason it's probably less likely Atlanta makes a trade with the Mets is they are in the same division. That also makes it tough for the Phillies...and to a lesser degree the Yankees. From that same perspective, we've had trouble trading with the Mets in the past...though that was more Melvin than Stearns. Maybe the Mets won't be able to trade either because they struggle executing trades with anybody...

Yelich and Lucroy brought back Brinson as the "blue-chip" guy, but I wouldn't call him blue chip. He has a high floor on the defensive side but the bat had always been questionable. The Quintana, Chapman, Shelby Miller, and Sale trades were desperation moves...massive overpays done by arguably terrible GM's. Everyone thinks Theo is a genius for some reason, so I'll avoid including him but Dombrowski and Stewart are indisputably dreadful GM's. I'm not sure what blue chip prospect was in the Simmons deal. I think Frazier was a bit overrated at the time of the trade, I don't know that he's as good of a prospect as Hiura was. With the Eaton deal, I believe the Nationals were actively trying to trade Gioloto for some reason...and I'm not sure why. That trade didn't make much sense to anybody at the time. The teams willing to gut their farm system to make bad trades have already done so...and don't have the prospect capital to compete with us. The teams I listed previously, NYY, LAD, PHI have very solid GM's that aren't going to massively overpay for Degrom.

I think Braun would be a better at 2B than Schwarber is in LF. Not saying much at all. I also think Braun would spend half the year on the DL. Yeah if someone slid within 3 feet of Braun trying to turn a double play, he'd probably break 3 bones in his leg and be out for the season. A majority of the reason I like him at 1b over LF is less wear and tear, 2nd base would only make things worse. Don't have to run and dive and jump as much...less aggravating his fragile body. And Schwarber, I really hope they keep playing him in left field. I want to see more "dives" from him. I know we won 2 games, but his "not even close to making the catch" belly flop on Monday was the highlight of this series for me.

Oh come on. The guy has a sub 3 career ERA over close to 800 innings and may be the leading NL Cy Young candidate right now. On top of that we’d not only get him for the rest of this year but all of next year and all of the year after that. The Mets should not only expect to get Hiura and Burnes but should also, rightfully, expect to get more. Burnes ceiling is nowhere near that of Degrom and he’s done all of nothing in the major leagues yet. I’d be hesitant to trade Hiura just because we seem to lack very many high ceiling prospects right now, particularly positional prospects, and because he seems like the real deal. But you can’t acquire a talent like Degrom or Syndergaard with a bunch of mid level prospects. Agreed with everything here. The Mets would (and should) be asking for the moon for deGrom. The Brewers cannot get deGrom without giving up Hiura and Burnes/Peralta. Personally, I'd rather keep our prospects. Hiura is darn near untouchable for me at this point. That's the thing, no other team is willing to trade their elite prospects. The Nats didn't trade Robles, the Braves didn't trade Acuna. These blue chip guys simply don't get traded anymore. The Phillies might be willing to include Sanchez in a trade, the Dodgers might be willing to include Verdugo...those are probably the best prospects that the Mets might get for Degrom. Hiura ranks above both of those guys at this point in my opinion, maybe he gets included in a trade but I doubt it.

I don't see another team beating this offer. I view this as a slightly better package than what Chicago got for Sale, Burnes is obviously less than Kopech but Phillips and Lara are far and away better than the other pieces in that trade. I think the Brewers can create a package and avoid sending Hiura. That package would definitely then have to include Burnes and Peralta. Additional good pieces of Phillips and Ray or Phillips and Medeiros probably are enough. And FYI, I don't think Atlanta goes for Degrom simply because I think they'd be more inclined to utilize their young SP than trade them for established pitching. They might trade them for a controllable bat, but not pitching. I think the obvious teams vying for SP at the deadline that can compete with our prospect pool are LAD, NYY, and PHI. And on a side, it seems like many of you seem to think there is a virtual cliff beyond our top 3 or 4 prospects. It's as if you see Hiura, Burnes, and Peralta as having value and everything beyond that is filler. We have a very very deep farm system, Ray would probably crack the top 5 of a lot of teams prospect lists right now. Peralta would probably be number 1 for close to 10 teams and is probably between 2 and 4 for us. You get the idea.

The writer did a good job picking the teams likely to target him with the prospect capital. I ruled out the Braves as I think they are more likely to keep their arms for now and potentially trade one or two down the line for impact bats. I also don't think the Rockies stay in it long enough that trade for Degrom makes sense. I also think this guy wildly overvalues Degrom. If I'm the Dodgers, no way am I giving up Buehler for anything. He has frontline starter written all over him and is already pitching like one, why trade 6 cheap years of him for 2+ years of Degrom? Makes no sense. Someone also may want to tell this guy that Peralta is a better prospect than Burnes at this point. I feel like this guy has minimal knowledge beyond 2-3 top prospects from each team and is just grabbing names off a dated list.

If Schwarber can play left field, why can't braun play 2b?

the only thing worse than a cubs fan is a cardinals fan. Hey, hey! The only thing worse than a Cub fan is a Philly fan. But I know what you guys are talking about.... maybe the Cub fans holler because the batter actually HIT the ball, regardless of distance. Pretty impressive to shut that bunch out twice Pretty impressive to have the best record in the NL. That was supposed to Nats/Dodgers/Cubs! I watched the highlights a few nights back where Braun made two really tough plays in the OF. I didn't realize he was that good with the leather. Good lucky against Arietta and that improved Phils team. You gotta get at him early. In fairness, Braun isn't that good in the outfield. He's a good athlete and can make good plays from time to time but I'm not sure I'd say he's much better than average in left. And right on about the Nats/Dodgers/Cubs...all the media talking heads had everyone thinking we may as well not even play the games and fastforward to October, it was basically impossible for any team besides those 3 to win their division.

Bahahahaha, plug him in at SS...we'll be just fine defensively. Figured you were going to be the first in to comment on that one. Anyway, its obviously not a good start, but he's never had a FP less than .958 at SS in a season. He's clearly not a strong defender but he's not going to commit errors every game. It's not surprising he would have a rough start 18 months removed from playing the position. There's a reason they sent him to work on his game in AAA first. This reminds me of the panic early in 2017 the first week of watching Villar play 2nd. Miller will be fine at SS, as in, not a disaster. Or maybe he will be bad, I really don't know, but making snap judgments about it based on one single minor league game is a little ridiculous. You're going to be disappointed if you think Miller was acquired to be Villar's backup and a pinch hitter. They would have likely called him right up if that was the case. I know it's just one start, maybe he becomes fringe competent with a week of starts. I just think he's been moved multiple rungs down the defensive spectrum for a reason. If he makes it to Milwaukee I'll root for success, until then I'm hoping he struggles defensively as I expect so we aren't tempted to play him in games that matter at a position he cannot play.

I think you could easily argue him at or near the top 10 prospects in baseball, though I think a number of factors will keep him around 18-20 in most updated lists.

Bahahahaha, plug him in at SS...we'll be just fine defensively.

I generally don't think the Angels go into any sort of tear-down with Trout there. Trading Simmons would send the wrong message, it simply won't happen.

Agreed that Jimenez was a desperation overpay, it sounded like the Brewers were involved and got outbid at the time. The Brewers tend not to get their players highly ranked until they hit high a or aa as do a number of other teams. The big markets get so much more exposure(and it's good for their ratings to give big markets better rankings) that their promising players in the lower levels get ranked higher. At this point, Jimenez would be rated highly if in our system...but at the time of trade he was in high a. And there's actually an argument to be made that Hiura is currently a better prospect than Jimenez. Hiura projects as a below average-average 2b, while Jimenez projects to defend like Santana in RF or potentially even LF. Hiura has posted better overall stats on the season, and has been better in AA than Jimenez. Jimenez has him on power for sure, but Hiura is a better hitter, can steal bases, and is much higher on the defensive spectrum. I'll take the offense first 2b that posts 900 ops over the offense first LF/RF that posts 950-1000 ops. Tampa's front office is generally delusional in my opinion. They let Dickerson go for basically nothing, but are holding out for a kings ransom for Archer. If the Brewers are willing to move Hiura/Burnes, I'm talking to the Mets about Degrom or Syndergaard...Archer is an extremely distant 3rd best SP available when compared to those 2.

Well, the first thing I look at are recent comparable trades. In the case of Archer you actually have a very close comparable from this time last year in terms of production, age, and control -- Jose Quintana. Now that doesn't mean it'll be the same -- every market is different. But with the high demand for starting pitching and the low number of sellers, I would anticipate a seller's market. The significant part of the return for Quintana included Eloy Jimenez (#8 at the time) and Dylan Cease (#63). Cease is very comparable to Corbin Burnes in present value. The only thing we have close to Jimenez is Hiura, and he's still not that valuable. So you're going to likely need a 3rd major piece, probably Freddy Peralta or Corey Ray. So if that's your offer, Hiura+Burnes+ one of Peralta/Ray, I'd say you have a shot at it being accepted, but that's still assuming someone doesn't come along and offer a better headliner. Seems like a lot, and it is, but realistically, I don't see him going for much less. I wouldn't pay that price. You can sure try to headline something on Burnes or Peralta, but that's probably about as far as it's going to go. Archer will bring the Rays back whatever the market bears for him, and there are plenty of contenders who can leave us in the dust with our offer if we aren't willing to part with Hiura. First off, there aren't that many contenders that can and are likely to be seriously involved in a trade for Archer. The Phillies, the Yankees, and maybe the Dodgers depending on their SP health...those are the 3 contenders I see with the potential need and prospect capital to contend with a Hiura/Burnes offer. But would they? Archer hasn't posted a sub 4 era since 2015 and he's hurt. He also throws a ton of sliders and those type of pitchers tend not to age well. I think you are also underestimating Hiura's value and how high he'll likely shoot up ranking boards. He won't get up to Jimenez at 8, but top 20 is reasonably likely. He also plays a premium position, and you have to factor in bias to the rankings. Hiura on the Cubs would probably be a top 10 player, Jimenez on the Brewers might not have been top 50 at the time of trade. Like it or not, it's an absolute fact that the club a prospect plays for affects his ranking. I also think you are valuing either Peralta or Ray incorrectly, as their values aren't all that close. Peralta's is much higher, heck he might be rated higher by many teams than Burnes right now. I think the max package that I would consider a reasonable offer is Burnes, Peralta, Phillips. That's a ton to give up and I have no interest in making that offer, but that's the highest I'd go...and I doubt anybody beats it. If someone was willing to beat that offer, Archer probably would have been traded in the offseason. His value has only gone down since the offseason. I think we can and should avoid trading Hiura and use other pieces to get deals done.

I tend to agree with this. I'd prefer to target more proven players, the injury history is very concerning. I think my package might be burnes, Henry, and a flier. If they don't like Henry maybe burnes and Philips for Matz and a sogard replacement. But again I'll add I don't think I'd target Matz.

I'm wondering how high Hiura will soar up prospect rankings at mid season. I'm wondering if he has a shot to crack the top 20. He was at #48 before the season.

For Matz, we'll probably have to give up Hader, Arcia, Hiura, Lutz, Burnes...add in Ray and Supak as apparent filler to put it over the top. Why do so many of you think we'd have to give up our entire farm for 1 good pitcher? When in the last handful of years have we seen a massive haul for a SP? The Chris Sale trade is the only one, and Chris Sale is far superior to Degrom and his contract situation was far more team friendly. I'll also add that pretty much everyone thought that trade was a massive overpay at the time of trade. Matz would command far less than Degrom or Syndergaard, as he has major injury concerns and hasn't shown more than a mid-rotation ceiling.

I'm referring more specifically to Degrom, and Greinke was better. Last I checked Greinke was a year removed from a Cy young. Hard to say Degrom is better than that. We were also trading for his 27-28 age seasons versus 31-32...so age was less of a concern. Also as I noted, prospect value has changed dramatically since then. Teams aren't as willing to trade their best prospects. If they tried to demand Hiura and Burnes they won't get far. Very few teams in baseball have 2 prospects that can match Hiura/Burnes...and I doubt they'd be willing to match that. We'll find out for sure if/when a trade happens, I just don't think both of them wind up in a trade. And if you think Ray and Supak are filler, you should probably re-evaluate how you value prospects. Those guys are both either in our top 10 or very close...and again, both are having very solid seasons to date.

I'm not so sure I'd call Ray or Supak filler. Ray will be a top 10 prospect and Supak could be close, and Supak has a lot of helium right now as he's having a good season. Both of those guys are actually. Teams tend to be more inclined to trade for prospects playing well. Prospects have generally become much more valuable, I'm not so sure it's going to take a team backing up the farm truck and sending over their top 5 prospects to get 2 years of Degrom. Replace one of them with a Medeiros or someone else of that caliber if you like, but the idea is we are sending over a near MLB ready likely mid-rotation arm(which has incredible value), 2 back end of our top 10 prospects, and a flier or 2. If you have to add someone like Phillips to the trade to get it done, fine. It's absolutely possible they prefer guys closer to mlb ready. For a comparable deal, look at the Greinke trade...and also factor in that even at the time, it was obvious we overpaid for Greinke. Prospects have generally gained value since that trade, so the prospect haul likely won't need to be as significant. We gave up Odorizzi who was in low a at the time and projected to have a ceiling of a mid rotation starter, Cain who posted solid but unspectacular numbers in the minors before trade, Escobar who had a lousy first MLB hitting season but was an elite defender, and Jeffress...who at the time was a major risk and a head case. We also brought back Yuni B. Burnes is better than any single prospect in that trade, so that alone is a trump card. Supak and Ray have a lot of upside and are in AA, so relatively high in the minors. Overall, I view my offer as relatively comparable to the Greinke deal...it might be slightly less in return but again Burnes is a better prospect right now than any of those 4 were at that time.