KeithStone53151

That and a sweetener or two probably gets it done, do you really want to trade 2 high end position player prospects for Archer? He's not quite the caliber of pitcher that I think it takes to consider trading both of those guys. It would have to be a truly elite arm to consider that trade.

I've seen several people pencil in Jeffress and not even suggest an alternative. May I ask why? I don't think he's earned that kind of consideration. I'm not super high on Hughes or Swarzak but I'd definitely take both of them over Jeffress. If Reed is your top free agent reliever, that leaves the flexibility to get the best value guy left on the market regardless of whether he's lhp or rhp. I like it. Swarzak or Neshek works for me. I agree about Barnes. Could easily see him being the next hard-throwing Axford, Jeffress, Turnbow, Knebel, or Thornburg type with a few surprising really good years in his physical prime. I prefer to switch Hader and Suter. Want that Andrew Miller type in the pen, and Suter earned a chance in the rotation for sure. Plus Brent's bat and glove are damn good for a pitcher. That's not a huge factor but it's a tiebreaker when there are good arguments on both sides. We are close enough to the same page on everything else that I'll leave it as is. We disagree on Hader, but I've beaten that drum in enough other threads. As for Jeffress, I think he can be had for a discount due to the setting. His best is far better than Hughes's best. Hughes is basically a 1 pitch pitcher and his 1 pitch is only decent and only due to his height. Neither player has particularly good control, but Jeffress is slightly better. Jeffress throws harder, and is developing a 3rd pitch...which he threw roughly 15% of the time last year. There's a reason Counsell chose Jeffress to close a couple games when all our better options were burnt out rather than Hughes. Regardless of which is picked, one of those two is ideally set for middle relief duty with Barnes and Williams while our new acquisitions and Knebel handle late inning duty.

This is blatantly false. If you watched him pitch, you'd know that. He may have struggled with his command early on but got much better as the season progressed. It shows in his 2 BB in 16+ IP in Sept/Oct. He really started to harness his command at a point in August. And he also throws his offspeed stuff often enough, and the amount increased as the season went on. He ended throwing heat roughly 4 of 5 pitches, most starters throw FB roughly 3 of 5 pitches. Many high end pitchers relied more heavily on their fastball early in their career(in the 70% range). Look at fangraphs for guys like Strasburg, Kershaw, Scherzer, etc. I am mildly concerned with how his stuff will hold up if he's throwing 5-6 innings every 5 days. I would hope that we try skipping Hader every so often on an off day to keep him his innings down as he builds to that 200 limit.

SP - Anderson, Davies, FA/Trade, Woodruff, Hader - Nelson on 60 day DL RP - Knebel, Reed, Swarzak, Barnes, Jeffress, Duke, Suter, Williams(shuttle service) - Shaw/Nicasio/etc fallback if we don't get those 2. IF - Pina, FA - C or Bandy, Thames, Perez/Aguilar, Villar, Sogard, Shaw, Arcia - One of Perez/Aguilar traded OF - Braun, Santana, Brinson, Phillips This roster probably adds about $25-30m each of the next 2 years depending on what we do at SP and Reed will probably be an additional year. The cost of these FA pieces shows how critical it is that some of these AAA arms develop into bullpen options. Trade Broxton and one of Perez/Aguilar to clear space. I think it's Perez personally. Sogard is a better infield defender than Perez and can still cover corner OF if needed(along with Thames). I don't mind Hughes, I only opt to look elsewhere because I'd rather aim higher than him to open the season. Swarzak > Hughes. Turn the bullpen into a real strength. On paper, the pen would look incredibly strong and even if 1-2 guys aren't as good as 2017, we still have at least 4 very solid options for the back end of games. I would aim in the 2/25 type of FA pitcher if that's what it comes down to, I prefer aiming for a better pitcher via trade. I would not be interested in Darvish/Arrieta at sticker price or the Cobb/Lynn tier. 2/25 can be flushed down the waiver wire or at least into long relief quickly if he fails. One thing we should consider that I don't think many are is that Pina may not have a repeat of 2017. Career minor leaguer comes up around age 30 and has a very strong season. He may not repeat, we should be prepared for that with a solid backup option. I don't think it should be vogt, I like him but I don't like his defense.

It's not that I have too much confidence. It's that guys like Hader, Woodruff, Williams are ready now, and Burnes should be real soon. Will all of them, and the guys that follow all be great? Of course not. But they are still rebuilding. So I don't care how many rookies/ young players are on the pitching staff. The more the better. We don't know who will be a #1, #3, etc. The only way to find out is let them pitch. The longer we wait, the longer this rebuild will take. Sure, we can trade for or sign a stop gap or two, and we'll feel better. Maybe we win 84 games instead of 81 or whatever. Get the young talent up, position players too. Let's not fall into the trap this organization has so many times thinking they're ready to compete for a WS title. They're not. I feel like far too many people think building a contender is this long, drawn out progression that takes years on year. By the time guys like Hader/Woodruff/Arcia/Phillips/Brinson/etc fully establish themselves and we on paper are "ready to compete", guys like Shaw/Thames/Santana/Braun/Anderson/Davies will be gone or on their way out. The Cubs won almost 100 games in 2015 in a year they were projected by all these "experts" to finish middle of the pack. Everybody thought their build would be more gradual than it ended up being. We were very close this past year. Close considering Villar was awful, we had 3-4 terrible bullpen arms at most times for most of the season, and Guerra/Peralta got way more starts than they deserved before we pulled the plug. Most of that can be addressed this off season and through talent that will come up. Villar I'm expecting to come back hungry after a poor 2016 season, I'm sure he knows that he'll probably get DFA'd and wind up in AAA/minor league deal w/camp invite somewhere else in 2019 if he repeats his 2017 performance. We have quite a few younger players that should trend upward(Santana/Arcia/Phillips/Brinson). We aren't a team full of aging talent that we're just hoping certain guys don't hit an age wall and become useless immediately. We have only 1 or 2 guys that fall into that category. We are at a point where this team can compete now and into the foreseeable future if things fall correctly in a given year. And things falling correctly needs to happen for most teams to compete.

If Guerra is not back to form, that's a very shallow pitching staff. I hate to be cruel about that projection, but that team might win 70-75 games. Where is Woodruff? Jeffress also isn't included, and I fully expect him on the staff next year. I think we'd target Swarzak over Neshek, but I'm expecting 2 signings. I can't imagine Jungmann or Guerra opening with the club.

I remember hearing at the deadline that the ask on Hand was enormous. Like Chapman return enormous. I don't have a source on that. If that's the case, hard pass. In theory I like the idea of adding Hand but not at that cost.

I think Harrison is getting some love from his strong finish and his performance in the Arizona Fall League, where he's hitting .314 with 4 HRs (just one behind the league leader) on only 35 ABs. He has had a really nice 2017 - just keeps getting better and better. I agree, that top 10 is reasonably close to what bf.net community came up with and what the offseason lists will probably look like. The only mild outlier is Harrison, even with his strong finish in the AFL I'm still surprised he was bumped ahead of Phillips/Ortiz. Harrison certainly is capable of making his number 5 ranking look foolishly low this time in 2018...here's hoping.

One interesting thought I had for the 5th starter spot is CC Sabathia. I can't imagine he'd demand a long term deal, I'm honestly not quite sure what he would demand. I'm guessing he'd be more inclined to sign with the yankees all things being equal. I think his veteran leadership would be very valuable to a young staff, and he'd likely come on a 1-2 year deal considering his age.

Knebel, FA, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter(LR), LH FA(Zach Duke?), Hughes or FA, Shuttle service arm. For first FA, aim very high. Not Wade Davis high, but Addison Reed, Nicasio, Morrow, etc. For the LH, I think Duke could be had at a decent rate. He had a lot of success here previously and is coming off injury. Maybe a 1-2 year deal. I personally would rather us sign someone than bring back hughes. Maybe Neshek, Shaw, Albers, Swarzak, etc. Shuttle service arm will be the old Cravy/Goforth/Suter/etc slot. This year, potentially Williams, Wang, Ventura, Derby, Lopez, Houser. Ideally those guys show enough while they are here that when injuries inevitably happen and we have 2 or 3 of this group up, they hold their own. I'm expecting Barnes to bounce back in a big way. i think his overuse early in the season impacted him quite a bit. I think with a couple good moves, bullpen could be a strength this year.

I don't buy this rumor at all. I'm not sure why the Giants would want Heyward with Pence in RF. I know his contract is up after the season, but they still have him for now. The Giants are also trying to contend. Trading away Melancon makes their bullpen problems even more significant. Trading Samardja creates an innings eater hole in the rotation, and the FA market is weak. All things point to this being a dream deal for the cubs while making zero sense for the giants. The only way I could see the Giants doing this is if the Cubs eat a ton of salary. Take on all of Melancon/Samardja and a significant chunk of Heyward as well. If the Giants could free a ton of payroll, they can position themselves to make a run at the 2018 FA class and in theory make a couple prudent moves this off season to field a competitive team. All that said, I doubt that's what's happening. This seems like a reporter with a cubs bias drawing up a trade ideal for the cubs...not too different from the Braun for Ike Davis straight up nonsense we saw coming off the Braun suspension.

I couldn't disagree more with every aspect of this post. We could trade Brinson for the starting pitching, why try 5 years of santana for 2 years of ozuna? Ozuna as a target makes no sense for this team. It's a good opportunity for another team, but not us. We have a ton of homegrown outfield talent that should be given the opportunity to play and prove their value. And there is no "window" for the brewers. We are being built to compete consistently...that's the goal. No window theory, it's a cardinals style build. The dream is to be in the mix every year and hope to get hot at the right time. Every team has windows. Not recognizing them when the jump up is what leads to years and years of frustration. Trading too much of the future for the present is what leads to windows, and what also leads to extensive rebuilds when the MLB roster gets old and the farm gets barren from trading it for the old aging vets. If done right, the brewers can compete consistently. Extend the right players for the right amount of time, trade other guys towards the end of their team control for prospects, successful draft/develop. It sure sounds easier than it is, but it can be done. Look no further than how the cardinals are consistently good and have multiple WS, I should point more to how they used to do it than how they currently build...as they've strayed from their philosophy over the last couple years and are dealing with some bad contracts now.

The Matt Garza contract was a bad deal before the ink dried. For every Fiers that comes up and is successful, there are 10 guys like Burgos or Espino that get shelled immediately and sent back to AAA. Our goal shouldn't be to put a guy with a probable high 4s or worse era into the rotation and say "well at least we saved money". We have enough talent that we shouldn't be planning to put guys that have no business being anything but the #7-8 starter into the rotation to open the year. Those guys likely see a handful of starts at some point due to injury, but ideally we aren't counting on them. I'm not advocating to go spend on a free agent SP, I actually really don't like the free agent class. I'd prefer to target someone in trade. The answer definitely cannot consist of anybody in that group opening the season in the rotation barring at least 1-2 injuries. I would think at least one (Woodruff) should be considered and expected to start the season. Add him to Anderson, Davies and Hader, you only have one more spot to fill and the rest of that list are the injury replacements we think they should be. Now, considering there is a high likelihood we will want to clear two starring spots in the rotation mid-season for Burnes and Nelson, it may not be a bad idea to let that group of #7/#8 battle camp to see if someone can earn that #5 spot. If we can trade for a starter who we expect to be better than Davies and here for at least 3 years, by all means get them. But if not, I'd rather start the year a little weak at SP knowing their are midseason replacements then sign someone for 3-4 years and have to deal with starting a known week SP in 2020/2021 because they are our new Garza. Note, I'm strongly assuming Hader will be given at least a half season as a starter and Nelson will be available sometime in 2018 (late July?). If not, this is all moot and we need to get someone else. I didn't catch the Woodruff was in his grouping, nor am I sure why as he's a completely different pitcher than anyone on his list. He's virtually locked into a rotation spot at this point I would think. I expect it to be Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Hader/external. I'm expecting external to come via trade. Suter opens in the old Estrada role.

I disagree to some extent. A Ponce/Perrin/Suter/Jungmann/Woodruff/Fiers/Estrada is still valuable for the Brewers. In 2017, Matt Garza was paid $12 million or so for an ERA in the high fours. Get that down to $750,000 or so for a 4.75 ERA, and that frees up $10 million for farm system, scouting, additional coaching, or free agents at other areas of need. But if you get a guy like Suter, delivering a 3.42 ERA as he did in 2017... or Jungmann re-discovers his 2015 form (3.77 ERA), that becomes a huge boost. Right now, Brent Suter and Brandon Woodruff are the two biggest bargains in the 2018 Brewers' starting rotation. If the Crew can keep Angel Ventura in the fold and Bubba Derby, plus Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz... they don't need to hit the free agent market for a borderline pitcher. The Matt Garza contract was a bad deal before the ink dried. For every Fiers that comes up and is successful, there are 10 guys like Burgos or Espino that get shelled immediately and sent back to AAA. Our goal shouldn't be to put a guy with a probable high 4s or worse era into the rotation and say "well at least we saved money". We have enough talent that we shouldn't be planning to put guys that have no business being anything but the #7-8 starter into the rotation to open the year. Those guys likely see a handful of starts at some point due to injury, but ideally we aren't counting on them. I'm not advocating to go spend on a free agent SP, I actually really don't like the free agent class. I'd prefer to target someone in trade. The answer definitely cannot consist of anybody in that group opening the season in the rotation barring at least 1-2 injuries.

If I "banked" on every proclamation you've made I'd be living in a perpetual state of disappointment. Having said that, you are probably more correct on this than not but I would never bank on it happening. Either way, this is a really good problem to have if both pan out. Trade chips matter too. You don't bank on any one prospect, at least while they are in the low minors. We have 2 high quality options with Diaz/Hiura at future 2b...that's better than our farm position at 3b, 1b, and actually SS as well. Let these guys battle it out in 2018 and their performance dictate which is the better prospect.

Arguing a guy is a #4/#5 is splitting hairs - they're still basically depth guys. It's a nice boost if any of them are more solid rotation pieces, but it doesn't move the needle for me. I have almost zero research on Ponce and don't have a strong opinion, but he's striking out 7 batters per 9 right now in high A ball as a 23-year-old. Never say never, but #1/#2/#3 guys are generally far beyond that. Agreed for the most part. Also add that Ponce allows more hits than IP in a very pitcher friendly league. He might be more #4 than #5 ceiling but he certainly isn't a #4 floor. His likely future is in the bullpen, where hopefully he can throw a bit harder and his offspeed stuff plays up. I think it's more likely that Ponce doesn't ever see the MLB level...same with Perrin. Wilkerson I will give a ceiling of Marco Estrada/Mike Fiers...sometimes a guy with one plus-double plus off speed offering can overcome averagish stuff everywhere else. Perrin to me reads like Hiram Burgos. Decent minor league numbers based solely on good command and filling the zone with strikes. Every system has 2 or 3 guys just like Perrin. The problem with giving any of these guys a serious look is we have other better options available. They are injury/poor performance insurance only and should not be considered to open in the rotation.

If that is the case then that is reason enough for him to drop as relievers don't do too well in these polls. I'm of the same thought on Peralta. I like him as a prospect, but was surprised by how highly rated he was by some of you. I'm curious everyone's opinions on him, I'm hoping he's the next "how do you feel about" guy.

This is where we differ. Yeah, I want to win next season and want us too badly but I just don't feel that sacrificing our best arm talent in our system because we might be alright next season. Stearns needs to go out and find guys to replace Hader in that pen. I'm on the side, and maybe I'm in the minority, but I believe this guy is just too dang special of a player to not ride him out as a starter. He might have Randy Johnson type early years but I just believe he'll be special if we let him be. I can't think of another Brewer, ever, that has had the arm talent that this guy has. We are much more likely to be able to add a high end bullpen arm in the offseason than a high end starting pitcher. Starting pitching in general is extremely valuable, especially with the type of ceiling Hader has. We can't afford to go out and pay sticker price for Darvish/Arrieta, and it's conceivable that Hader pitches better next year as a starter than either of them. It's also possible he doesn't cut it as a starter, but the upside is worth the risk. We can start him in the rotation, and if it doesn't seem to be working in June/July we can make an adjustment. The bullpen option isn't going away just because he's starting in the rotation.. We will surely be able to move him to the bullpen later in the season if needed. I could see that happening anyways when Nelson comes back or Burnes is ready(to limit innings), unless of course he's destroying MLB hitters as a starting pitcher.

In general I find this obsession some fans have with tanking for the high draft pick to be quite sad. Especially in our current situation. A young team surprised MLB and missed the playoffs by a game, and now this guy wants to tank for a draft pick? If we are 100 games into the season and 40-60 with veteran players and not young up and coming talent...fine, might as well tank for the draft pick. That's not even remotely the situation we are in. I'm not exactly sure what situation this dude would need to concoct to want to compete versus tank for the high pick. Tanking for the high pick in general is sad and dishonest. I'm really confused here. What are you addressing and whose comments specifically are you talking about? No one from what I can tell said anything even close to resembling tank talk. I must have replied to the wrong comment. The guy hoping to have good years from certain players and lose 10 more games. Between that and his comment about the bucks and not wanting to remain the 5th best team, sure seems he is advocating for tanking.

Yes, and there's a whole lot of ways that can happen. Nelson doesn't pitch at all. Anderson returns to norm, Knebel could be traded, platoon at 1B may really fall off, Braun could really fall off. A whole laundry list of things could happen, and it wouldn't take very many of them. I mentioned 6 names, still dependent on 19+ more players. In general I find this obsession some fans have with tanking for the high draft pick to be quite sad. Especially in our current situation. A young team surprised MLB and missed the playoffs by a game, and now this guy wants to tank for a draft pick? If we are 100 games into the season and 40-60 with veteran players and not young up and coming talent...fine, might as well tank for the draft pick. That's not even remotely the situation we are in. I'm not exactly sure what situation this dude would need to concoct to want to compete versus tank for the high pick. Tanking for the high pick in general is sad and dishonest.

It is wildly unlikely that Jungmann opens in the rotation, barring a miraculous uptick in velocity at his age. His mechanics are prone to serious control problems, and his stuff isn't good enough to get away with control issues. Maybe Jungmann would have had a shot on the 2017 bullpen, but the bar will be much higher for this team than the 2017 team. I think Jungmann and Drake are being kept around solely for depth, if kept at all. I think there's a very real chance that we try to sneak one or both through waivers and outright to AAA at some point this offseason. That's the problem. Same problem the Bucks have had for over a decade. Fighting to get better every single year, so they're the 5th best team in the NL instead of the 6th. 2017 was an unexpected surprise, and it was fun. But I don't expect them to make a big jump in 2018, in fact I would fine if their record was worse. It's still all about acquiring and developing young talent, and adding them to the 25 when they're ready to contribute. That's it. I don't want to see them get a FA starter, or trade for one. No, I want those starts to go to Hader and Wilkerson and eventually Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz, Houser, Perrin, Ponce and anyone else on the verge over the next two seasons. I think they have enough there to build a really good rotation in-house, and spend big money on a bat or two when the time is right. So basically, if you had your way we would tank every year and aim for the number 1 pick? Baseball and basketball have different dynamics. In basketball it's all about having a couple star players and surrounding them with a good supporting cast. If you don't have Lebron/Durant/Giannis/etc, you might as well tank and try to get the 19 year old version with a top 3 pick. And those top picks don't fail at nearly the rate of MLB top picks. The high picks of the Cubs/Astros helped to some degree, but they had so much talent develop from lower draft picks and savvy trades(aside from the Fiers/Gomez deal of course). You're generally dreaming if you think Perrin/Ponce/Wilkerson/Jungmann are talented enough to start and to help a team contend. Guys with #5 ceilings shouldn't be more than the #7 or 8 starter for this team with what we have in the farm. It serves no purpose and adds no value. It's not like another team is going to backup the prospect truck because Perrin or Wilkerson fooled MLB hitters with 90 mph heat and fringe average offspeed offerings for a month. The reason people like me are hoping to add a SP in free agency or via trade is to add stability to the rotation for 2018. We currently have 3 guys locked into the 2018 rotation, 4 if you count Hader as I do. You don't want to head into 2018 with 3 young SP that might not be able to consistently go deep into games. The bullpen would be shot by the end of April. You need to ease the young guys into the rotation one or two at a time until you see what you have in them. The vast majority of this team over the next handful of years can and should be homegrown. We have the talent to do it. But there will definitely be times to dip into free agency or make trades to bolster the MLB roster and/or cycle aging players out to replenish the farm.

It is wildly unlikely that Jungmann opens in the rotation, barring a miraculous uptick in velocity at his age. His mechanics are prone to serious control problems, and his stuff isn't good enough to get away with control issues. Maybe Jungmann would have had a shot on the 2017 bullpen, but the bar will be much higher for this team than the 2017 team. I think Jungmann and Drake are being kept around solely for depth, if kept at all. I think there's a very real chance that we try to sneak one or both through waivers and outright to AAA at some point this offseason.

I'm oddly not concerned about Diaz either. All the skill is still there, and as noted very few guys hit in the Carolina League. Notice how much better Stokes and Gatewood looked going from high a to AA? They jumped up a league and their offensive numbers improved significantly, that shoudl be telling about the league in general. I'm sure it isn't FSL bad, but it's clearly not hitter friendly. I feel like the Harrison/Ray/Diaz/Erceg/etc crew is going to seriously light up the Southern league this coming season.

Except that Hader is a starting pitcher......

I couldn't disagree more with every aspect of this post. We could trade Brinson for the starting pitching, why try 5 years of santana for 2 years of ozuna? Ozuna as a target makes no sense for this team. It's a good opportunity for another team, but not us. We have a ton of homegrown outfield talent that should be given the opportunity to play and prove their value. And there is no "window" for the brewers. We are being built to compete consistently...that's the goal. No window theory, it's a cardinals style build. The dream is to be in the mix every year and hope to get hot at the right time.