KeithStone53151

Stanton AND Gordon?!? Holy smokes that's a lot of salary for the Giants to take on. I think that trade would end any hope of them getting under the luxury tax threshold for 2018.

This is the case with basically every free agent, ever. Yes, Arrieta presents slightly more risk as a pitcher and as one with declining velocity...but who are we saving the money for? If not Arrieta this year, we'll be thinking about signing some other 3.75 FIP/ERA guy for $100 million next year, pushing the contract burden a year further down the road. Except that by next year, in theory we'll have Anderson, Davies, Nelson, Hader, Woodruff, and Burnes as established guys in the rotation with Ortiz and Peralta waiting in the wings. None of those guys will be expensive, and they can all be every bit as successful as Arrieta will be going forward. If everything breaks right, we'll have to figure out which guy or guys to trade to clear space. If one or two guys fail, well I have eight names listed and five rotation spots. And every one of the guys I listed has had significant success in the upper levels of the minors, and therefore they aren't as likely to fail. We really shouldn't be targeting anyone on more than a 2 year deal with the pitching we have on the way.

I think Drake will end up getting dropped, possibly today. They might keep him around for depth heading into camp, depends on other moves. He's definitely a prime candidate to be dumped quickly. I see 5 open spots on the 40 man, and 4 must adds. I hope Orf or Wren also get added, ideally Orf.

Please no, I can't think of a single offseason move I would dislike more than this one. I'm not overly concerned by us showing interest, ideally it's simply an effort to drive up price.

There is an argument to be made that Harrison's value may be at an all-time high at the moment. Of course it's just as likely that he made adjustments and is on the road to being a stud major leaguer. The thing is, if he has a bad year next season...who would want to trade for him? The goal is to maximize value, so if the brewers think this season was fluky then it makes sense to trade him. I wish people would get off the "trade brinson" bandwagon. I don't know why everyone is in such a big hurry to trade away our top prospect that's mlb ready now. Our SP situation can be handled internally for the most part, we moreso need a stopgap than a long term solution.

Not that the Brewers are players in this sweepstakes, but what would ridiculous from their standpoint look like? I imagine Brinson, Harrison, Hader and Burnes would probably be a starting point for negotiations based on "wildly ridiculous." For Giancarlo, my Brewers offer would be Domingo, Harrison and Ortiz. Take it or leave it. It was probably a tweet from a sportswriter quoting another GM. It's hard to know what he considers wildly ridiculous. Maybe he thinks taking the contract off their hands is value enough, and asking for even one top prospect along with his ridiculous. I've tried figuring out what sort of value makes sense to give up for Stanton and have really struggled. How much extra in prospects does a team have to give up for the right to pay a 29 year old slugger $295 million over the next 11 years?...but potentially he could opt out after 3 years. I guess I would consider wildly ridiculous to be asking for 5 of the cardinals top 10 prospects including all of their top 3, and then a solid mlb contributor like Pham or Wacha. I'm so curious to see how this plays out.

While I do think that some people have overstated the amount of regression expected, it's silly to list just 3 guys. Chase and Suter are massive regression candidates, and Davies is probably a minor one. Nelson could be out for the season. If Suter ends up being a starter out of spring training, which I sort of expect, literally every single spot in the rotation could easily be ~1.5 WAR worse than last year except the 5th spot (Woodruff all year instead of Peralta/Guerra/Garza). Hader, Knebel, Swarzak, and Hughes were all quite a bit better than any reasonable person would have bet on them being. Ditto Thames and especially Aguilar. You can't cite Villar as a bounceback candidate without also acknowledge that Sogard is due for a lot of regression and Walker is probably gone. And Shaw improving on the season he just had? That's quite a stretch. Regression is far more likely. Braun is only likely to miss more and more games and his bat continues to get slower every year. You'd have to consider Santana an elite hit tool guy to think he's going to stay the same or even get better. I don't think he's that. I agree about Brinson and Phillips replacing Broxton and Kirk in the outfield. There will almost surely be lots of regression. There will also be some pleasant surprises and career years, and obviously a few of the guys I listed above won't regress - we just don't know which ones. They will sign some free agents to counterbalance the regression as well, but this is roughly a 75-80 win team as presently constituted and their offseason moves, along with those of their division rivals, will determine whether they exceed those expectations again. So you listed Aguilar, Sogard, Suter, Swarzak, Hughes, Hader, Thames, Nelson, Walker, Shaw as regression candidates. For starters, we might as well scratch off Swarzak and Walker as they aren't on the team anymore. Sogard/Aguilar/Suter/Hughes are fringe roster guys. Sure they might regress a bit, but it wouldn't be a huge hit to the team if they did. It's also possible that Aguilar/Hughes/Suter aren't even on the roster to open the season and are replaced by better players. Hader is likely going to be starting to open 2018, which you can't really compare relief to starting from a regression perspective. Nelson is also missing a good chunk of the season minimum. Thames is a regression candidate I suppose, but he also has upside as he came on strong to close the year and really adjusted to how he was being pitched. Shaw also could absolutely regress, but he's young enough to still have a bit of upside. He's also at that typical age 26-28 sweetspot where guys tend to peak as hitters. I specifically listed Pina/Chase as I think they are the most likely to have some regression. Thames/Shaw/Santana give reason to believe that they can still improve, still have upside. Of course even the young guys can regress, but all the young guys have a ton of upside to go with the potential for a bad year. Our team has far more upside than downside in my opinion. Pina/Chase dropping off their production a bit can easily be replaced by Phillips or Brinson posting an OPS over 850, Hader or Woodruff posting a low 3s ERA in the rotation, Arcia building on his 2016 gains and posting an OPS in the 800-850 range, Villar returning to something between his 2016 and 2017 forms, you get the idea.

Who are all these regression candidates? Pina, Chase, maybe knebel, who else? You generally don't expect young guys to regress unless they have crazy good years. Meanwhile, we have villar, santana, arcia, shaw, brinson, phillips, hader, woodruff all as guys with somewhere between a realistic and likely chance of improving in 2018. We don't have a team full of 30+ guys that we are hoping don't fall off a cliff.

I am so curious what the end package is going to be when this trade happens. I read that the Marlins asking price is wildly ridiculous. And there's a no trade clause, so who knows if Stanton will even accept a trade or if he'll want a sweetener worked into his contract. I also read that the Giants made a formal offer for Stanton.

I know bickford is young, but I also believe I read he was more low 90s in instructs than the mid 90s he was when we got him. I don't think his offspeed stuff is good enough to make up for not being able to reach mid 90s. We'll see what he shows when he comes back in 2018, hopefully through gym work or whatnot he's able to regain some velocity and pitch effectively. I personally think he's destined for the bullpen, we have a need for good bullpen arms and his 2 better pitches would play up in the pen.

I'd guess that Aguilar will be shopped to see what value he has. He's just entering his prime (27 years old), is cheap with a lot of team control, and can hit. He could be a good fit for a team in need of a first baseman, and a really good fit for an AL team looking for a 1B/DH. A team like the Red Sox who could use some pre-arby guys to get under the luxury tax would be a great fit, but I don't know if there's a trade to be had there. I'm fine with him remaining on the 2018 roster, as he did well in his role with the 2017 Brewers and showed that he can still hit when getting sporadic playing time. However, if a team sees him as a full-time player and will give up commensurate value, then we should probably make the deal. Red Sox? yes please. I want to Stearns to trade with Dombrowski as often as possible. I see your point, with him we shoudl be looking for a bit better than the Jason Rogers trade.

I agree that this is the pessimistic viewpoint but it is not the reason I want to bring in certain players to hedge the possibility that they were career years. While Pina's D will play regardless, the idea of an Avila or Lucroy is solely to protect against Pina's O falling off. Anderson & Nelson never consistently pitched like they did last year, so the idea of them falling back to mid-rotation starters is not out of the question. Bringing in talent to protect against that, provided you don't raid the prospect depth, is just good roster building. I tend to agree here. Pina and Anderson are prime regression candidates. Anderson found over 2 mph in his fastball this year, hopefully that sticks but if it doesn't he probably falls back to a back end arm. Those 2 ticks helped everything play up that much more. Pina also wasn't as good in the 2nd half, he's 30, career minor leaguer. Hedging a veteran with him would be a wise move. We can't hedge at every position, but catcher makes sense.

Technically you don't have to write Brinson's name in ink just yet. You could make a case for giving Broxton a chance to improve his trade value first. I'm not exactly bullish on Brinson and wouldn't mind seeing him in an impact deal like Yelich, as someone proposed previously. If asset management is the issue, Aguilar should obviously be the odd man out. I'd hate for them to dump Perez or Keon to keep him. If Braun plays 1b, then Phillips, Keon, and Santana can be the outfield with Perez and Braun getting some reps there as well. Brinson can replace Keon when they find a favorable trade or if Keon doesn't bounce back at all. And if someone wants to give up great value for Brinson in a trade, by all means go for it. Phillips can be the cf with Hernan/Braun in lf. I agree about Reed. He and Avila would be ideal targets, along with some other relievers. I don't hate the idea of Arrieta but would much prefer great depth and balance with less risk. If Braun getting part time duty at 1b becomes a thing, then Aguilar is gone for sure over Perez. I think that's likely regardless, Shaw can play more 1b also and I suspect Perez could fill in there as well. It may be somewhat dependent on what we can get for either player. Broxton and whichever of Aguilar/Perez we get rid of are an opportunity to reload some talent in the farm, ideally at the lower levels. I've been reading that a ton of teams are interested in Reed, notably the Cubs. I don't want to see the Cubs sign Reed and one of Davis/Holland. It's almost important to sign Reed just to keep the Cubs and their filthy paws off him.

You summed up my sentiments perfectly here. All the negativity surrounding the lease is because I want to go to the Brewers Spring Training home to watch games not have to go to away games. If the Brewers are investing $40-$60 million on their Spring Training home, I would've preferred the investment in just about any other area in the Valley. While I have to believe they explored every option (different cities, partnering with another team willing to make a similar investment in a new stadium/location), it doesn't mean it is less disappointing when you see the Talking Sticks, Sloan Park and Surprise Stadiums of the Cactus League. Jeez, you can't be serious with this level of whining. Maryvale really isn't a bad stadium. And home vs away in general is meaningless, it's all in the same general area. I can't understand why an away game is such a burden. You clearly were going to whine like crazy unless the end result was the taxpayer buying us a big shiny new stadium in your ideal location.

This isn't what I'd ideally like to see, but I could certainly live with this outcome. I just really want Addison Reed, closing experience in case Knebel regresses. One thing to note on your roster, you have 13 position players and 13 pitchers. If you want an 8 man pen(and I think we all do), you can't keep Aguilar, Perez, Sogard, and both young outfielders. I personally can't see a scenario where both Aguilar and Perez are back. One has to go, and this is also assuming Broxton gets traded.

Come on, I have been to Maryvale and I know its not the greatest place in the world, but Phoenix has way worst areas to put up a spring training home. I’m comparing it specifically the the other locations that have ST complexes. I’m also not just referring to how “dangerous” it is according to some. I’m referring to just overall the area is lacking. We have by far the worst location putting up the biggest investment. Not necessarily shocked and agree the public paying for these is in the past...but man you’d think we could have gotten a bit more lucky and gotten the Gilbert location for all the money we are throwing in. The area really isn't that bad, it's not like you're on the corner of 10th and north hoping not to eat a stray bullet. I've been to Maryvale and didn't feel remotely unsafe about it. We didn't stay in Maryvale, I imagine most don't. And the surrounding area has plenty to do. As far as the investment goes, it's a lot up front but they protected it with a 25 year lease. Averages out to $2-3 million per year. And for all we know, the Brewers could be paying much less on the lease to make up for our big investment in the improvements. I personally don't understand all the negativity regarding this lease situation. You can just as easily choose to see the Brewers during "away" games if you hate the Maryvale location that much. And what the Brewers spend on a spring training facility isn't impacting the big league club or our ability to compete.

MLB Trade Rumors put him at 2-years/$16M. Same with Fangraphs crowdsourcing. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs puts him at 1-year/$6M. I think Avila did enough to get a 2 year deal. I also think there are enough teams in the market for a part time or backup catcher that he'll get the 2 year deal. He's on the high end of the next tier right below lucroy.

I've seen articles were Arcia's defense (and reputation) are overrated so pick you poison but your statement "but he's got all the tools" to be perhaps the best in the league" is based on what? Swanson and Arcia had 20 errors each, next guy had 12 please elaborate on the tools. Thanks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wix-5EpqXVo - we can start there on tools. He has plus glove, plus range, plus arm, double plus instincts...he's a natural shortstop that can make every highlight reel play and then some. The E total relates to consistency, which is something he needs to work on for sure. Also relates to him being able to get to balls that many SS wouldn't dream of making a play on...see example above. He's also 22. He'll grow into his position and get more consistent, the Brewers are clearly banking on it.

Well not really actually. Davies could easily be included in a trade for Archer. I don't think we would do that, but it isn't impossible. In reality I don't think Archer ends up moving, and if he does it's going to be for a mega-haul. A team like the Rays won't trade a #2 caliber starting pitcher on a team friendly deal with 4 years of team control for a mediocre-above average package. The Chris Sale package is likely what they are targeting, not the Gray package or the Quintana package. If they don't get it, might as well keep him and improve elsewhere.

You should replace "breakout year" with "career year at age 30 that he'll likely never repeat again" and decide if Morrison still interests you. 1 good year shouldn't negate 6 bad ones.

Our 1st base position hit 268/360/544 good for a 904 OPS. Why exactly are we trying to upgrade that spot? Jose Abreu will be 31 and put up a 906 OPS. Hosmer posted 318/385/498, good for 883 OPS in a career year. His career line is 284/342/439, good for a 781 OPS at the position on the lowest end of the defensive spectrum. I can't see a scenario where we make a move for Hosmer or Thames. It isn't even remotely realistic, and definitely wouldn't be in the best interest of this team.

The author is betting that Lucroy takes a one year deal to try and rebuild his value - and then re-enter the market next off season in a better position. He could certainly get a multi-year deal - but just not at the price he thought he would be getting a year ago. I can understand the thought process, but I just don't think he does it. Lucroy was signed to such a team friendly deal previously, his MLB earnings to date is roughly $16 million over 7 years. I personally think he's going to be more inclined to lock himself into a big extension now. He isn't going to touch the 5/80 that Martin/McCann got, but he will certainly get more than the 3/24 Jason Castro got last year. I would be surprised if he didn't see 3/30 type offers from multiple teams, with the winning bidder being the team that bumps him up to a 4/48 type deal.

I think the Arcia/Brinson price is what it takes to get Archer. He's a big name, solid pitcher on a very team friendly deal for 4 more years. If you want to avoid Arcia, then I would assume Brinson/Burnes/Diaz/and a couple smaller pieces. Tampa isn't going to let him go cheap, they have no reason to. All that said, I'm not advocating for any of these deals. I don't think Archer is quite enough of a game changing talent where we should include Brinson. Close, but not quite.

He can't hit. A .297 avg over his minor league career just screams of a guy that can't hit. How in the world did this guy make it to AAA with such terrible numbers?

I think whoever this guy is who thinks lucroy is getting 1/12 is nuts. I would be surprised if he didn't get a 2-3 year deal around 10-12M per. Not for us. I'm not opposed to looking at a veteran backstop to pair with Pina that can start 2-3 games/week, I'm also not opposed to rolling out Bandy in that role again. Backup catcher should probably be a wait and see situation, see how the market plays out and if you can improve from Bandy at a minimal cost...you do it. There are a few guys available, I wouldn't be surprised if someone fell to us.