KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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I would be inclined to keep the rotation as is, but be ready to have Burnes pitches 9/28 if there's a playin game that day. I think the Cardinals would play a doubleheader on 9/28 against Detroit, so a playin game could potentially happen 9/29...in which case you have Burnes ready on regular rest. I think this is also the type of thing you can play by ear. Let's say we win the first 2 games of this series...then it's a no brainer to keep Burnes on regular rest. If we lose 2, then it might be time to gamble a bit and get your best in there as often as possible.
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This article points this out, but I've noticed how often he works teh cutter/sinker combo down and in to lefties. I mean, that's really not somewhere you want to be messing around to lefties...but it's hilarious how often he perfectly spots that cutter off the inside corner and down to a lefty and they swing and miss. Otherwise, he'll start the sinker inside off the plate and it hits the corner for strike 3 looking. The fact that he went from throwing 2 pitches to throwing 6 pitches over one offseason(extended, but still), is seriously wild. Gotta love that work ethic.
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Forgive me if all of this made it on tv, but the altercation in the 5th inning after Molina was hit started because Molina sprinted at the brewers dugout. What I've read online indicates schikdt was kinda the main guy, but Molina started it all. Also after this altercation and in between different innings, Molina was absolutely berating the home plate umpire and afterward casually walked behind the plate and continued to catch. The fact that he didn't get ejected is downright embarrassing.
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Allison and Kumerow were steady players, with zero upside. MVS is about as unsteady as you can get, but the upside is substantial. ESB is pretty much a blank slate right now. He flashed some ability his rookie year, but was not consistent enough to get any sort of read on. I would say that saying the WR corp is "embarrassingly bad" would be accurate if you are going by name recognition. But when looking at talent, it's there. The chance they are taking, though, is depending on those two young guys to take a big jump. The thing is, the offense didn't struggle to score too badly with Adams and a bunch of bums at WR last year, and with a very over-the-hill Graham clogging up the TE spot. Heck, they were better when Adams was missing, with Lazard and the RBs leading the way in the passing game. I don't see how they are going to suddenly struggle now. Last year, the Packers were 18th in total yards per game, 17th in pass yards per game, 16th in scoring per game. We were also similarly middle of the pack in defensive stats. The only major stat we were way above average was turnovers, being +12...good for 3rd best in the league. Basically we were an average team that did a great job taking care of the ball. That's not good enough for 13-3. And maintaining is simply not good enough in the NFL. When you look around, almost every team is getting better through the draft or free agency...while we did basically nothing to improve our offense. You need to be getting more better than the other teams to truly improve.
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Allison and Kumerow were steady players, with zero upside. MVS is about as unsteady as you can get, but the upside is substantial. ESB is pretty much a blank slate right now. He flashed some ability his rookie year, but was not consistent enough to get any sort of read on. I would say that saying the WR corp is "embarrassingly bad" would be accurate if you are going by name recognition. But when looking at talent, it's there. The chance they are taking, though, is depending on those two young guys to take a big jump. The thing is, the offense didn't struggle to score too badly with Adams and a bunch of bums at WR last year, and with a very over-the-hill Graham clogging up the TE spot. Heck, they were better when Adams was missing, with Lazard and the RBs leading the way in the passing game. I don't see how they are going to suddenly struggle now. Last year, the Packers were 18th in total yards per game, 17th in pass yards per game, 16th in scoring per game. We were also similarly middle of the pack in defensive stats. The only major stat we were way above average was turnovers, being +12...good for 3rd best in the league. Basically we were an average team that did a great job taking care of the ball. That's not good enough for 13-3. And maintaining is simply not good enough in the NFL. When you look around, almost every team is getting better through the draft or free agency...while we did basically nothing to improve our offense. You need to be getting more better than the other teams to truly improve.
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How does a team that didn't really lose anything of note personnel wise in the offseason (besides maybe Bulaga) take a 6-game swing record-wise? And who are you saying are the 3rd and 4th best options? Allison and Kumerow? Graham? Those guys are very, very replaceable. I mean, I understand the idea that last year's team perhaps outperformed its talent level, but 7-9? Really? Last years team was not a 13-3 team. They probably played to the caliber of a 9-7 or 10-6 team but had a few breaks go their way. I just don't see how we're going to score enough. The only way this team can get to that 10-6 level again is if we can keep teams in the teens in scoring pretty consistently. I was referring to Allison and Kumerow. I'm aware they are replaceable, but the guys replacing them are slightly worse players on paper...and those 2 guys really aren't very good to begin with. We appear to be embarrassingly bad at WR beyond Adams. I'm not really counting Graham as our 2 young tight ends will probably be as good or better than him. Unless some of the young wr take a massive step forward, or one or both of our young tight ends break out in a big way...we're going to struggle to score.
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How does a team that didn't really lose anything of note personnel wise in the offseason (besides maybe Bulaga) take a 6-game swing record-wise? And who are you saying are the 3rd and 4th best options? Allison and Kumerow? Graham? Those guys are very, very replaceable. I mean, I understand the idea that last year's team perhaps outperformed its talent level, but 7-9? Really? Last years team was not a 13-3 team. They probably played to the caliber of a 9-7 or 10-6 team but had a few breaks go their way. I just don't see how we're going to score enough. The only way this team can get to that 10-6 level again is if we can keep teams in the teens in scoring pretty consistently. I was referring to Allison and Kumerow. I'm aware they are replaceable, but the guys replacing them are slightly worse players on paper...and those 2 guys really aren't very good to begin with. We appear to be embarrassingly bad at WR beyond Adams. I'm not really counting Graham as our 2 young tight ends will probably be as good or better than him. Unless some of the young wr take a massive step forward, or one or both of our young tight ends break out in a big way...we're going to struggle to score.
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I've paid minimal attention to NFL until yesterday, I forgot that I agreed to play in a fantasy football league after intending not to participate in any this year. I looked at rosters for a couple hours and when I got to the Packers skill positions, I was extremely underwhelmed. It's like we took our receiving corps of Adams and bleh from last year, got rid of our 3rd and 4th best options, and ran it back. Even if Rodgers is indeed primed for an FU year after the draft, he doesn't appear to have the weapons. We seem better setup to run big sets and run and work play action. A lot of 1 and 2 wr sets with 2 te and sometimes 2 rb. I just don't see how our offense is successful unless we run that type of offense. Unless the defense takes a big step forward, this feels like a 7-9 team to me. That's possible I suppose since I know we made it a priority in the off season again.
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I've paid minimal attention to NFL until yesterday, I forgot that I agreed to play in a fantasy football league after intending not to participate in any this year. I looked at rosters for a couple hours and when I got to the Packers skill positions, I was extremely underwhelmed. It's like we took our receiving corps of Adams and bleh from last year, got rid of our 3rd and 4th best options, and ran it back. Even if Rodgers is indeed primed for an FU year after the draft, he doesn't appear to have the weapons. We seem better setup to run big sets and run and work play action. A lot of 1 and 2 wr sets with 2 te and sometimes 2 rb. I just don't see how our offense is successful unless we run that type of offense. Unless the defense takes a big step forward, this feels like a 7-9 team to me. That's possible I suppose since I know we made it a priority in the off season again.
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Right now, the only beer I have in my fridge is PBR. So that will be my drink of choice tonight.
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2020 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
KeithStone53151 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Brewers have played better the last week or so. Considering more than half of teams make it...it's more surprising that the Nationals currently are not in...than it is that the Marlins are currently in. -
Ay ay ay, arcia should not be leading off. Bottom 3 in the order is where he fits...
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FanGraphs Trade Value Series - 2020 Edition
KeithStone53151 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Hader not making the top 50 could have a ton to do with fangraph/WAR/etc not knowing how to properly value relievers. Is Corbin Burnes 3.0 ERA over 21 innings more valuable than Hader 7 innings of 0 ERA? I know it isn't quite that simple, but WAR says Burnes has been more valuable. High end relievers tend to have value similar to solid/unspectacular starters according to WAR. -
I don't know that it was forced. For one thing, our own Zach Davies made some public comments basically saying it's fine swinging 3-0 in that situation.
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The numbers bear out your observation, so far our ERA- of 92 ranks 13th, our FIP- of 91 ranks 7th & our xFIP- (the most predictive of these stats after a 20 game sample) of 85 ranks 4th. For comparison, when the Brewers pitching opened the year getting shelled last season their ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- stood at 118/117/102 after 20 games. By the 60th game it was at 100/100/100. I'll also add to this, all these numbers include all the times we threw guys like Justin Grimm out in games that were over early to get shelled. I wonder how we'd rank compared to other teams if we included only pitchers we'd actually use on a potential playoff roster.
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I thought Arcia was a bright spot, then I looked a little close at the numbers and my thoughts are a bit mixed. Watching him hit, a lot of his hits seemed pretty lucky. A lot of medium/hard hit grounders finding a hole in the infield, so I've wanted to look and see for a bit now. Aside from the numbers, I'll note it seems he's taking more pitches this year than last year and generally has a better eye. That said, I'll start with the good. Hard hit % is up to 36% from 31 in 2019 and 28 in 2018. Whiff% is down to 21% from 24.6 and 28.9 in 2019 and 2018. Chase% is down to 25% from 30 and 35 in 2019 and 2018. All of that is actually very good, and generally a good trend means he's progressed consecutive years. The things I don't like, BB rate is down to 6% from 8% last year, though it was 4.1% in 2018. He's also hitting the ball on the ground at the highest rate of his career at 58% up from 51% and 55% in 2018 and 2019. He's also notably hitting the ball up the middle more with a 24/54/22 split left/center/right versus 37/36/27 in 2019 and 33/44/23 in 2018. With defenses getting so good, he really needs to be elevating the ball more. Those grounders, especially up the middle, are going to lead to a ton of double plays. He's grounded into 5 in 19 games, while grounding into 15 in 152 games in 2019 and 9 in 119 games in 2018. Bottom line, he's made some notable improvements at the plate which is good...but he's definitely due for regression based on his batted ball profile and a .325 BABIP. All that said, it is only 19 games...those metrics could change in a hurry.
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I kinda think he's going with a guy that's patient at the plate against a guy that can lose the zone. Notice he also doesn't have Arcia in the lineup. It's really not a bad strategy.
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Seriously... Guy is seeing the ball well, let's bench him for a few days so he cools off. Let's keep throwing Narvaez out there instead to swing under every fastball as he tries to hit it 800 feet. Woodruff vs Chatwood is a wild mismatch. I see we have a fairly patient lineup in the game...take some pitches and burn the cubs bullpen as best we can today.
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Has anyone lost confidence in Stearns
KeithStone53151 replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I can understand the point of this thread considering this year, but I'm still way way on the Stearns bandwagon. His record with trades is pretty incredible. He's found some fantastic value in free agency. This year has been a bit of a miss, but we were also a bit more strapped financially this year than prior years in large part due to Braun's contract. Add in this year being so weird, we are certainly better built for a long season than a short sprint...where injuries/fatigue play a greater factor. I personally give him a complete pass on the year. Next year, Braun's contract will be gone and we'll likely have added tv money. We should be much better positioned to make some moves and improve the roster for 2021. Also, the farm is a bit barren as we've made some buy moves the last few years during playoff runs. That's just kinda what it is, it will bounce back and get better in time. -
Piggybacking won't last much longer. Once rosters trim to 26, we'll need a legit 5 man rotation. We do have more offdays in September than July/August...assuming making up our games against the Cardinals doesn't throw a wrench in that. How crazy that I have way more confidence in our top pitching than our top hitting right now? We could have a semi-formidable pitching staff in the playoffs with Woodruff and Houser starting as many of the games as they can...with the best of the crop above starting the others. There are also a good handful of guys throwing the ball well in the bullpen...I know it probably doesn't seem like it, but that's primarily because we're getting blown out so often when Lauer/Anderson/Lindblom pitch that CC is using the Yardleys and Grimms of the world to eat those innings and they are expectedly getting crushed.
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2020 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
KeithStone53151 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Agreed. At some point, we need to see more Pina and Gyorko against RHP. Gyorko is just a good hitter, and Pina's splits are virtually non-existent. 737 vs RHP and 731 vs LHP career. I'm aware he had some wild splits and hit lefties way better last year, but the 3 years prior he hit RHP better. Overall I view him as a guy that just doesn't have significant splits either way. The platoon we are seeing should be softer and Pina should see more RHP while he's producing well. -
2020 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
KeithStone53151 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This Brewers team just doesn't look like a playoff team. It's fine having one or two of the journeyman hole-plugger types on your roster, especially multi-position guys like holt or sogard. But having half your lineup decked out with these types is a recipe for failure. Guys like Sogard are a substantial part of the roster, whereas teams/pitchers spend more time game-planning to get him out than if he was coming off the bench of a stronger roster like he probably should be. I felt pretty good about this roster going into the season, but that also included Cain, a good Braun, a Hiura that once in a while could hit a belt high fastball, and 2018/2019 Yelich. The Cubs are just not screwing around and it's so obvious. That team is the hungriest in the division and it's showing in the standings. -
Forgive me if this was noted already, but who here agrees the game would be tied right now if sogard was playing 2b and hiura was dh? They are both playing, I see no reason to have hiura in the field over sogard when we are trying to win games
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I would like to see cc get ejected to try and wake the team up a bit. Season is too short to punt half of it away
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I was just going to say, Bauer is getting much better calls than lauer was. It wouldn't put us in the lead, but this game would be sightly different if lauer had Bauer's zone. Holt got rung up on the same pitch a reds player walked on...