BruisedCrew
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To try to get this thread back to the intended topic, the Cards have been addressed in the thread. The next two weeks will tell us something about where the Cards are headed as they have the first of their 4 series against the Brewers followed by 7 games against the Pirates and 3 against the improving Tigers. They have to make up some ground in this stretch because that is followed by 4 weeks of games against nothing but contending teams, including the Brewers and Reds. As others have pointed out, their schedule gives them opportunities to make progress, but they have a tougher road than the Reds.
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So, if we just look at the snapshot of August 15, the success rate of teams with division leads of 6-9 games is a little over 90%. Not surprising. That is a little misleading. Yes, teams with 6-9 game leads in August have only blown those leads twice in the last 20 years… but teams with a 7-9 game lead have blown those leads zero times in the past 20 years and haven’t blown a lead as large as the Brewers in 26 years. I’d say that is essentially “super rare” and definitely not “far from ‘super rare’” as you claimed. It is misleading that you picked out the first sentence of that post and ignored the rest. There are multiple teams in the last 26 years that have lost leads of 7 games or more later than August 15 in either division or wild card races. In addition to the 2007 Mets, there’s the 2011 Red Sox who on August 25 had a record of 80-50, led their division, and had a 9 game lead in the wild card race. They managed to miss the playoffs. A lot of this disagreement seems to be a matter of how people react to probabilities. Some people consider a 90-95% probability a sure thing and others consider it a good bet, but not something to take to the bank just yet. I, and a lot of others who have contributed to this thread, are in the latter category. If something that only happens in baseball 5% of the time is “super rare” then we are saying that a home run by someone who hits 30 in 600 ABs is “super rare”. I don’t see it that way.
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Welcome, I'll send a bill shortly. It's a lot like the guy in High School that admits that he doesn't have a chance with the hottest girl in school, yet continues to mention all the scenarios where she might say yes. When you keep talking about ways it could happen despite insisting that it probably won't, it's because you actually think it will. Again, sadly the nature of a lot Wisconsin sports fans currently. Have you ever lived anywhere other than Wisconsin? From my experience the nature of Wisconsin sports fans is no different from almost anywhere else, especially for fans of teams who very rarely (or in the case of the Brewers, never) win championships.
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When you repeatedly post reasons why something could happen despite statistical improbability, then challenge the validity of said statistical improbability, it's because at least SOMEPLACE in your consciousness or subconscious mind, you're thinking that it's going to happen. Again, just IMO. Thank you Dr. Freud.
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Let Ashby leave feeling good about himself and get some work for Williams and Boxberger, who haven’t pitched for a few days, and Hader who is returning from his Covid break with only 1 mop up inning.
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There’s one for the blooper reel.
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Great hustle Lo. That looked like a sure DP.
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The 8th hit produces the first run.
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Things are just not going well. A ball that looks like it might be a HR turns into a single with only a one base advance.
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Time for the offense to turn some of these hits into runs against a scrub pitcher.
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The Pirates came to play today.
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To me that goes into the category of “If you’re going to try to steal you’d better make it.
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How often do teams lose a 7-8 game lead over the last quarter of the season? There were 20 full seasons / 60 division races from 2000-19. The largest division leads as of August 15th blown during that stretch were 2006 Tigers at 6.5 games & 2012 Rangers at 6.0 games. Of the 60 races, there were 21 that were separated by between 6-9 games as of August 15th, the other 19 held. The only recent team to blow a division lead over 7.5 games as of August 15th were the California Angels in 1995. So, if we just look at the snapshot of August 15, the success rate of teams with division leads of 6-9 games is a little over 90%. Not surprising. That doesn’t include teams that acquired and lost leads later than that. One that comes right to mind is the 2007 Mets, who led by only 3.5 games on August 15, but extended the lead to 7 games by August 24, and still led by 7 games on September 12 with just 17 games to go. They lost 12 of their last 17 and finished a game behind the Phillies.
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That hurts to run out of the inning with one of the top hitters up.
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I mean, to put it in perspective that would literally mean that out of 100 hypothetical MLB seasons, it would happen 5-10 times in every 100 years. That's basically super rare. The Brewers are at 96%ish right now. If they were in this exact same position for the next 100 seasons, they'd make the playoffs 96 of those 100 years. The problem is, and the counter-argument being made is that it feels like our fan base feels like those 4 times they wouldn't will take place every single year. I can’t speak for the whole fan base, but I think you are really misinterpreting the tone of this thread. I think there have been several contributors who have said as clearly as possible that the Brewers are in good position but that they won’t feel comfortable until the division is locked up. I think that’s a common sentiment among fans of every team, especially teams that haven’t been showered with lots of success over the course of 50 years. I guess my suggestion for anyone who doesn’t want to hear discussion about how the upcoming schedules could affect the Brewers position in the standings would be to stay away from this thread. Maybe I should analogize the 95% probability factor to having a 95% chance of winning a game. If a team has a 2 run lead with 2 outs in the 9th inning, and, according to the projections, has a 95% (or higher) chance of winning, do you turn the game off because a comeback would be “super rare”, or do you stick with it until that 95% becomes 100%?
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Write this one off and hope that it doesn’t turn into one of those clunker weekends against a bad Pirates team that we have seen too often over the years.
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How often do teams lose a 7-8 game lead over the last quarter of the season? I referred to gaining or losing 7 or 8 games in the standings, not just losing 7 or 8 game leads in a division or wild card race. But, even if you limit it that way, there have been several examples of leads that big and larger being lost mentioned in this thread, some in less than 45 games. I guess part of it depends on what one considers to be “super rare”. Even if you accept the 90-95% percentage that come from some of these estimations, I don’t consider something that happens 5-10% of the time to be “super rare”.
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You see, he's been on the site posting regularly for 8 years specifically waiting for this moment. Waiting for the exact right season. Waiting in the shadows for just the right time to highlight the super controversial position that a lead in August doesn't guarantee a playoff appearance. Then he'll spend the rest of the season secretly hoping the Brewers lose and miss the playoffs so he can point and yell "SEE I WAS RIGHT". Galaxy brain stuff man. He’s been posting since a few weeks before the all-star break about the Reds being the superior team. Posting on a site for 8 years has nothing to do with how I perceive his posts right now. His tune hasn’t really changed. Just pivoting to how we will blow it now. Yeah, I did say while the Reds were winning 6 of 7 at AFF before the All Star break that the Reds looked like a better team with their solidified starting rotation and potent lineup. That changed when the Brewers swept the series in Cincy and the Reds lost Castellanos for a month in the process. But, I still don’t see how you guys can translate “It isn’t over yet” into “The Brewers will blow it”, and how you can interpret my comments on this thread and others as me desperately wanting the Brewers to blow it. That’s as ludicrous as your claim that I wanted to run the Brewers pitchers into the ground because I suggested some minor tinkering with the rotation to get Burnes into the 4 game series at AFF against the Reds.
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I hope I don’t see it again for a long time. I don’t like seeing a hitter with some power bunting with two outs.
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There is no contradiction there at all. Recognizing that something might happen is not at all the same as expecting it to happen.
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Try to not be so sensitive. But my own opinion of you is you’re looking for anything to cling to the Brewers not being as good as they are. I think you desperately want the Reds to make this close and possibly win the division so that you can try to tell everyone you were right all along. But that’s just my opinion and if it is true, I think it truly stinks that you or other Brewers fans are like that. You couldn’t be more wrong. You actually think I am sitting here rooting for the Reds to win and the Brewers to lose. Incredible. I think it stinks that you and others can’t let other fans enjoy and follow a season the way they want.
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The Brewers went 4-2 against the Cubs in September of 2018, so they only picked up 2 games from the 6 game deficit they faced in late August that way. They made up the rest by winning 19 of their last 24 games against teams other than the Cubs, while the Cubs just went 15-11 in their last 26 games against teams other than the Brewers. In 2019, the Brewers picked up 3 games on the Cubs by beating them in 5 of 7 games, but still trailed them by 2 games in the wild card race. The Brewers then left the Cubs in the dust by winning 15 of their last 20 while the Cubs finished 8-12. One of the main premises of this thread is that the Reds have an opportunity to gain ground by beating on teams like the Pirates, Cubs, and Marlins while the Brewers are playing tougher opponents. It might be easier for them to pick up ground that way than by beating the Brewers head to head, though they have proven to be more than capable of winning games at AFF. They can definitely make things interesting without sweeping the upcoming series.
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This was good. I agree. Some want to be shielded no matter how good we are doing. Teams gaining or losing 7 or 8 games in the standings over the last quarter of the season is far from “super rare”. The fact that it has happened several times involving the Brewers in their history should be enough to establish that. A lot can happen to a team in 7 weeks including major slumps, injuries, and unforseeable hot streaks by opponents. If you want to assume the Brewers are going to win the division, feel free. But I don’t understand the compulsion to ridicule others who take a more cautious approach.
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But 2 1/2 is less than 8. Just stating what was going on then…. Also remember that the Brewers lost not only the division, but also the wild card race in which they had the 5 game lead over the Giants, who ended up winning the World Series. And not only did they not make the playoffs, they weren’t even in the running at the end. They finished 8 games behind the Cardinals and 6 games behind the Giants and Pirates, who won the wild card spots.
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I saw that the Cubs were leading the Marlins 4-1 in the second inning and thought maybe the Cubbies had found someone they could beat. But now the Marlins have 8 runs in in the second.