I will be surprised if the Brewers are in first place at the All Star break.
The Brewers have built their 12-9 record with the help of a very weak early schedule. Only one of their seven opponents (the Rays) is above .500. Those 7 teams have an aggregate record of 66-91. That changes dramatically starting tonight. Only one of the opponents in the next 11 series is currently below .500, and that's the Nats, who have already shown the Brewers that they can be pesky despite being 7-13 in games against teams not wearing WISCO jerseys. The schedule includes series against the Yankees and Dodgers and dates with Skubal and Skenes this week
With no returns for Chourio, Vaughn, or Yelich in sight, and the bullpen and starting rotation unsettled,, this could be a very difficult 5 weeks. i expect them to be below .500 at the end of May, and a handful of games behind whichever division teams maintain their current pace. They very well might be in last place.
The schedule lightens up in June, so my hope is that the Brewers don't dig themselves too big a hole in May and can get the batting order, rotation and bullpen straightened out and be in solid contending position by the All Star break.