BruisedCrew
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Everything posted by BruisedCrew
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Brewers (Myers) vs Reds (TBD): 9/1/24, 11:10am
BruisedCrew replied to treego14's topic in Archived Game Threads
I’m talking about how they would come up with win-loss projections for teams. -
Brewers (Myers) vs Reds (TBD): 9/1/24, 11:10am
BruisedCrew replied to treego14's topic in Archived Game Threads
These address projections for individual player performance, but I’ve always wondered how well projections for a team’s future performance account for things like injuries and other personnel changes that might make a team significantly better or worse than their past performance might suggest. -
Brewers (Myers) vs Reds (TBD): 9/1/24, 11:10am
BruisedCrew replied to treego14's topic in Archived Game Threads
One of the several reasons I wouldn’t want to see the Brewers play the Cubs in the first round is that it would largely negate the home crowd advantage the Brewers would have against anyone else. -
One of the worst ideas to bunt followed by a terrible bunt. Cleanup hitter with runners in first and third and one out. Unbelievable.
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Good to get that one in the bank after burning out the bullpen.
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That’s probably the best 4+ innings the Reds bullpen has put together in a long time.
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He still might be. Anyone who has rolled an ankle knows that it will feel worse later. Even if he makes it to the end of this game I assume he will be out tonight and then see how it is tomorrow.
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No, he should have put a ball in play instead of swinging at pitches a foot out of the zone.
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Warm day in a bandbox park against a team that is scoring and giving up a lot of runs. Better plan on scoring 10 if you want to win.
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Martinez completely shut down the Brewers a couple,of weeks ago in a game on our 10 pack. 1 hit and 7 Ks in 7 IP. Hoskins HR off a reliever in the 8th decided the game. Hopefully they learned something from that game.
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Ump probably called out the strike before he signaled it. The way this ump called the last two innings he might have called it while the pitch was halfway to the plate.
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Always nice to complete a series win with a quick, stress free win.
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So now you’re changing your tune and saying it ISN’T “incredibly hard” to find an example. If there are “infinitely” more examples of teams holding leads like this, then why isn’t the probability effectively 100%. If the Brewers probability of winning the division is 98% that should mean that there are 49 (not an infinite number) examples of teams prevailing for every 1 that doesn’t. Or are you saying that a 98% chance of winning a division is somehow different than the 98% chance of winning a game.Or that the 98% chance of winning the division is really understated? Just because someone RECOGNIZES the worst case scenario doesn’t mean he isn’t enjoying the current situation or persistently worrying about the worst case scenario. But, as others have said, I’m not sure why you persistently criticize people who take a different approach to things than you do. Why the heck do you care?
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It is not incredibly hard because all I have to do is pull things from my memories of following baseball for almost 70 years and then use Baseball Reference to provide the details. One of those memories involves the Mariners and Angels in 1995. That was a season that started a little late after the labor dispute that wiped out the last half of the 1994 season and the playoffs. On August 20, the Mariners with a record of 53-53 were in third place 12.5 games behind the Angels, who led the second place Rangers by 9 games. The Mariners only had 2 remaining games against the Angels. Angels fans were probably thinking that all the Angels had to do was play .500 ball in their remaining 37 games and they would be in the playoffs. What happened was that the Mariners went 25-13 the rest of the way (splitting their 2 games with the Angels):while the Angels went 12-25 and the teams ended up tied. The Mariners beat the Angels 9-1 in a playoff to win the division. This is just one example. It can happen and it has happened, so people who remember it are going to be wary of something similar happening to their teams, even if it has a low probability, like losing a game after leading 10-3 in the seventh inning
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I wasn’t at all concerned during the late innings last night. After Peralta finished the 6th inning the Brewers win probability was 97% so the game was effectively over.
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Brewers bullpen breaking out its Pirates imitation
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Don’t blink or you missed five runs
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Never once did I say that this was probable or that I was fretting over it. But, when you have seen it before, you really don’t want to see it again and you don’t want to see it getting started. I never said anything about the Brewers losing the entire lead. I was talking about it getting close enough to make it a little uncomfortable.
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That wasn’t me. I didn’t “supposedly” state facts. I really did state them. It wouldn’t be hard to find examples of teams that gained 6 games in the standings in 2 weeks without the benefit of head to head games against the team they were chasing. I was just citing a recent example that illustrates how quickly things can change. If the Brewers lose 13 of 14 like they did in late August and early September of 2014 after leading the division most of the season they would be opening the door for a team to catch them without the playing the Brewers head to head.
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After facing the Nats and Pirates in their next two series the Cubs will be playing the Yankees and Dodgers.
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Who said I was “fearful”? I’m just stating facts. Trying to read minds again? At least you agree that the Brewers have to win games. That’s all I’m looking for.
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We’ve just seen the Royals come from 6 games back 2 weeks ago to move into a tie with Cleveland. (They fell a game back with a loss today), I think it’s fair to say that the Brewers need to keep winning at a respectable pace to guarantee that the race doesn’t get closer than anyone would like it to be.
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Cubs scored 41 runs in the 3 games.
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Cubs scored 41 runs in the 3 games.
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Giants (Webb) vs Brewers (Myers): 8/27/24, 7:10pm
BruisedCrew replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
I miss baseball reference having these charts, but does anyone know how many times the Brewers have won this year when trailing after eight innings? I know the Brewers have a lot of “comeback wins“ but it seems like most of those are small deficits early in the game and not so much coming back in the ninth.
