BruisedCrew

The Cards have all the momentum in this game. Never thought I’d see Mikolas throw 5 shutout innings after that first inning. Brewers offense has gone dormant.

It was only a matter of time until Goldschmidt stepped into one.

When I go to a game I want to see the best available players and I’m going to be disappointed when they sit out.

This is a “kick them while they’re down” game. Mikolas is more than hittable and the Cardinals lineup is riddled with players mired in horrible slumps.

Brewers going with a lineup I would have liked last night: Turang 4 Contreras DH Yelich 7 Adames 6 Hoskins 3 Ortiz 5 Sanchez 2 Perkins 8 Chourio 9

By bunting Turing opened the door to pitch around Contreras and gave them a way out of the inning.

Peralta sure has trouble with guys hitting under .200.

I’m still upset about Turing bunting in the third.

That’s a relief. The Brewers would never be anything but open and honest about an injury.

I hope Yelich is sitting just because they don’t think he’s ready to go 3 days in a row and not because his back is acting up already.

Because we are going tonight we get the Sunday lineup: Yelich getting a rest, Bauers batting cleanup, Frelick 6th, and Dunn instead of Ortiz. No wonder we see so many clunkers.

Cardinals have a big weapon on their side tonight. It’s game 3 in our 10 pack and our luck has not been good in the first two games we attended this year, continuing a trend from last season.

Looks like a simple typo. Slaton’s 6 shutout inning debut was in 1971. Typos happen. Like someone typing “pay” instead of “play”. 😀

Terrible baserunnjng. Turang didn’t even have to extend fully to catch that.

I actually tried a free trial at Stathead last year and the charts aren't there. I sent a message to their customer support and they confirmed that they weren't there. There are ways you could get the data for one team by doing a convoluted sort request, but I wasn't going to pay for the "right" to do that.

In keeping with the theme of this thread (at least the part that doesn't discuss Blake Perkins), i do point out that 7 of the Brewers 13 games with 7 or more runs came in that hot stretch to start the season, including 6 straight in games 8-13. In those games they also had games of 4 and 6 runs and 4 with 3 runs. So, in their last 24 games they have had 6 games of 7+, 5 of 4-6 4uns, and a whopping 13 (Just over half) in the 0-3 bucket. I raise this merely as a statement of fact and not to push any opinion that the Brewers are going to continue at this pace for the rest of the season. Hopefully with Yelich back in the lineup the Brewers can start putting up more runs again.

Thanks for this. I'm curious exactly where you went on BR for the run support splits. They used to have handy scoring charts that showed for each team, and for the leagues as a whole, both the number of times they scored (and allowed) a certain number of runs and the W-L records when scoring that many runs. Those went away last year. Before I saw your post I took a swipe at this and sliced it a little differently. For one thing I set the lowest bucket at 0-3 runs because I have always considered these "low scoring games". This was based on the BR tables and win probabilities that showed 4 runs as the point at which the win probability reached 50%. Then, because this started with a fact about scoring 7+ runs, I set that as the high run bucket with 4-6 runs as the middle bucket. Using the game by game results on BR and sorting by runs scored I came up with these numbers for the 7 NL teams that are currently scoring above the league average. As things stand now these 7 teams are the leading contenders for the 6 NL playoff spots. Here they are in order of total runs scored with the High/middle/low bucket numbers: LAD 12 19 7 ATL 8 17 9 PHIL 11 16 11 AZ 8 15 15 MIL 13 7 17 SD 9 13 18 CHI 10 10 18 I made a statement on a thread a week or two ago that the Brewers run distribution graph looks more like a dumbbell than the expected bell curve with a tail to the right, and these numbers bear that out. While having the most games scoring 7 or more runs (and several more than some of the teams) they have a strikingly low number in the 4-6 range that I would expect to be higher, and is higher for the top scoring teams (Dodgers, Braves, Phillies). What makes those teams great is not so much having a lot of high scoring games as avoiding too many low scoring games. The numbers for the DBacks, Padres, and Cubs are more similar to the Brewers, especially in the low bucket.

We can hope.

It could be interesting to discuss this fact, both from the standpoint of what it says about the Brewers offense and the general subject of how a team's runs are distributed across games

I’m glad to see Yelich in LF tonight. There have been suggestions that he would be a nearly full time DH because of his back issues, but doing that would limit their ability to field their best hitting lineup on a regular basis. Yelich, Contreras, Hoskins, and Sanchez are 4 of the team’s 5 veteran hitters, and 3 of them are limited to DH, C, , and 1B. Yelich will be getting some off days and some starts as DH. But whenever he can play LF it opens up more possibilities for the rest of the lineup.

I understand that production fluctuates over the course of the season, but I think that a team scoring about a third of its runs (58 of 177) in 6 consecutive games that make up a sixth of its 36 games is quite extreme and skews the season long numbers.. And yes, I realize that Yelich was out for 3 weeks, but I also note that he contributed nothing to the scoring in the 3 highest scoring games in that 6 game stretch. He had an off day for the first game, left with the injury after one AB in the fifth game, and was out for the sixth game. I'm not trying to "push" that the offense of the last 3 weeks is "who the offense really is". But, I think there is a legitimate question about what the offense really is like and will be like as the season moves along. If you disagree with that, that's your prerogative.

OK, but the OPS numbers I was using were all from this season to show that the hitters were much more productive in the first 13 games of the season than they were in the next 21.

These numbers beg the same question as the team runs per game numbers. As I listed in a post above (using the more familiar OPS), most of the Brewers regulars were much less productive in the most recent 21 games than the first 13. It shouldn't be surprising that fans might be reacting to the larger and more recent block of games than the exceptional hot streak they had in the first two weeks of the season. I would ask how the projections for the rest of the season compare to the current season to date numbers. I'm sure Yelich isn't expected to maintain an OPS anywhere near the 1.100 he had before yesterday. I would be very happy if he can exceed .800.

A fail from both the offense and the bullpen today. 5 runs in 6 games against SP on this road trip. That makes it tough to win games.

I’m doing my part to help the Brewers today Because the Brewers have had so much trouble scoring against starting pitchers the last five games, I picked up Singer for my fantasy team. That usually leads to a pitcher giving up at least a run per inning and picking up a loss.