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CheeseheadInQC

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Everything posted by CheeseheadInQC

  1. CheeseheadInQC
    That might be, but that's also why I doubt Braun gets dealt. Whether they should or not, I have a feeling optics still matter with this one given Braun's stats last year and history with the Brewers. The Dodgers trade could have been sold (Puig's name and bounce-back potential helps, and Bellinger's a top-level prospect), but I doubt they trade Braun, given their current payroll, in anything that could be reasonably portrayed as a salary dump.
  2. CheeseheadInQC
    It looks like Bandy should still have an option remaining. Could easily start the year in Colorado Springs while Susac and Pina get their shot to prove themselves.
  3. CheeseheadInQC
    If Shaw becomes a league average third baseman, then the trade is probably a pretty clear win for the Brewers, but after his second half of last season, there's still an uncomfortably decent chance he's a left-handed Will Middlebrooks. I'm kind of mixed on the deal, but Shaw righting the ship this season would be a big plus.
  4. CheeseheadInQC
    Truthfully, while it might dilute the talent level a bit, it isn't even that big of a stretch to think that a normal draft would give them enough hitters to stock another team. You could put together an interesting Helena lineup now even without any 2017 draft picks (and also not including a number of the college hitters drafted last year who likely won't have a place with the Rattlers). Toss in the usual 15-18 draft picks, an UDFA college catcher or two, a couple DSL kids getting brought up and the guys likely to repeat in Arizona, and there shouldn't be a huge issue if there had been an opportunity for the Brewers to do this. I could also see a larger than usual number of pitchers sticking around in extended spring training. Both the A+ and A pitching staffs should be more experienced this year than last, so a greater number of midseason promotions could be possible.
  5. CheeseheadInQC
    Last year the Padres made four Rule 5 selections. They ended up keeping one all year (Perdomo) and traded for another to keep him in the organization (Blash). The other two (Martin/Smith) were returned to their original organizations. Detroit kept 3 all year back in 2003. I was talking guys who were clearly a couple years away from being big league ready. I think the rest of the Padres picks last year besides Perdomo and all three of the Tigers picks that year had at least hit AA.
  6. CheeseheadInQC
    Despite being the top pick, I don't know that it is fair to say that Diaz was a lock to get picked. The Rule 5 draft is notoriously unpredictable (a number of the guys who topped all of the rule 5 previews didn't get chosen) and their are typically more stash types than teams interested in stashing a player (five of the 18 picks were guys who haven't hit AA and three went to one team). Also, unlike some of the other stash pitchers, Diaz was looked at as likely being a reliever long term. On a related note, are the Padres really going to use three roster spots on guys who have never played above A ball? When's the last time a team had multiple obvious rule 5 stashes?
  7. CheeseheadInQC
    Outside of Justin Haley, some of the top Red Sox Rule 5 eligible guys seem to be Teddy Stankiewicz, Jake Romanski, Aneury Tavares, Yankory Pimentel and, because why not, Jose Sermo.
  8. CheeseheadInQC
    It's going to be tough for the late-round college pitchers, especially early in the season, simply because of a lack of opportunity. Because of the backlog of pitching prospects in A+ and the success of last year's college pitching class, there's a distinct possibility that the Wisconsin pitching staff includes only one or two pitchers who finished last season pitching at the rookie ball level in the Brewers' organization. (How about a tandem group of Burnes, Zack Brown, Webb, Supak, Desguin, Pennington, Yamamoto, Kirby, Missaki and Jankins with Sanchez, Drossner and Daniel Brown in the bullpen? Plus there's still Fox, who might get a spot over some of the later-round guys.)
  9. CheeseheadInQC
    Yah, I don't think he'd net one of the Brewers' top prospects (one Padres site was talking about Ortiz or Isan Diaz, which I think would be a non-starter from the Brewers' perspective). At the minimum, though, you're probably looking at maybe something like Cordell and Devin Williams.
  10. CheeseheadInQC
    The difference is the cavalcade of outfielders the Brewers brought in last year to compete for spots all had had AAA success, from Broxton, to Flores to Liriano. While they all had question marks, they'd shown that they could handle that level. Reed struggled at AAA last year and Cordell hasn't even had a chance there yet and also probably isn't a guy who they'd rush to the big leagues only to sit on the bench. If you can get an upside guy of that type to replace Nieuwenhuis, fine, but I'm just not seeing the answer in their system right now.
  11. CheeseheadInQC
    I'm not saying it is a good option, and a lefty is probably more likely, but it would be vaguely amusing if they picked Dylan Covey.
  12. CheeseheadInQC
    Pinto's stats last season might very well be a mirage. He hit everything at Colorado Springs and nothing anywhere else. Even someone like Wren who had notable splits was decent on the road and there were parts of his offensive line that translated both home and road. With Pinto, everything was worse, in many cases much worse. There aren't too many ways to sugarcoat a sub-.600 road OPS. I know his stats from a few years ago still give hope, but there's a decent case to be made he is Will Middlebrooks with a slightly better walk rate. This seems like a very Stearns move. Thames has got more risk than some of the middle- to lower-tier free agents out there at the position, but unlike most of them there's a chance he's better than mediocre.
  13. CheeseheadInQC
    Something has got to be coming trade-wise. Right now I count six starters, 11 relievers (not including guys likely slated for the minors such as Magnifico), plus Jungmann, who I'd considered a sleeper pick to finish next season as the Brewers' setup man. I have a feeling Torres is going to end up getting traded.
  14. CheeseheadInQC
    While the Helena caveat is obviously in play again, Nathan Rodriguez had a solid hitting start to his pro career as well and is supposedly a pretty decent defender. Unless they have one of the higher profile guys from last year's draft skip Helena, he's probably the No. 1 catcher for the Rattlers next season.
  15. CheeseheadInQC
    Wren's 2016 is almost certainly an outlier in some respects (his .392 average in Colorado Springs accounts for a lot of his .857 AAA OPS), but his walk rate had been improving the previous few years at level he'd start the year at before falling off after getting promoted (7.4% Class A 2013, 8.9% A+ 2014, 9.3% AA 2015). It wouldn't surprise me if he ended up with a 10% or so walk rate in the big leagues. He might be a coin flip to get picked. The biggest things working against him are I don't remember his center field defense being discussed as a significant positive (correct me if I'm wrong on this) and, while he is major league ready, is his offensive ceiling much higher than a .280/.360/.360 line?
  16. CheeseheadInQC
    And depending on how many you want to protect, there were other places to find the slots. I probably would have protected Diaz over Goforth and Wang over Reed. (I still think Reed has a chance to become a decent player, but after his struggles last year and the trades the Brewers made, he might be going into the season as the fifth best outfielder on the Brewers' AAA team, even assuming Phillips is back in Biloxi. Swapping his 40-man spot for Wang's might have been in both his and the team's best interest.) At least four outfielders are going to be on the major league roster by opening day. Sure you could play roster games to try to delay a decision, but I'm not sure why that's the best option.
  17. CheeseheadInQC
    Yep, you could go an NRI for the fourth outfielder spot and toss Houser on the 60-day DL, but that wouldn't do anything to solve the outfield numbers you're talking about because you'd be back to 9 after spring training, unless you're putting Reed in as the fourth outfielder (which his 2016 signals he's not ready for). Nieuwenhuis is what he is, but if you're looking to clear a spot for a minor leaguer, his isn't the one to look at. Someone has to be the fourth outfielder, and if they acquire a better one at some point you can waive Nieuwenhuis then.
  18. CheeseheadInQC
    The problems with the calls to cut Nieuwenhuis or Maldonado is that it is at best a temporary spot you're creating. Right now you have 12 major league position players on the 40-man roster, maybe 13 if you plan to use Walker off the bench. They might get swapped out (Gennett for a third baseman, Maldonado for another infielder), but those spots will be used by major leaguers so if you give one to Diaz or Wang, you'd have to cut someone else later on, and if it is one of the guys they added, well a waiver claim is much less restrictive than a Rule 5 pick. You might have been able to free up a spot by declaring an odd reliever out, but for the most part the decision was probably guys ticketed for AAA such as Goforth and Reed versus Diaz and Wang (and for the record, I probably would have gone with the latter two).
  19. CheeseheadInQC
    I think the two most likely to picked are: 1) Wang: Numbers pretty much the definition of solid but not spectacular, but he's a lefty and I could see a team wanting to give him a shot in the bullpen. 2) Miguel Diaz: The type of power arm that will frequently get plucked out of the lower minors. Might be 50/50 to get picked and 50/50 to stick if he does. While there seems to be one exception each year (Cave, Deshields) most of the hitters picked are coming off better seasons than Taylor and Coulter and Wren's lower upside makes him somewhat less likely.
  20. CheeseheadInQC
    It will be interesting to see if they have anywhere close to as much luck with their rounds 11-40 college pitchers as they did last year. Perrin, Harber, Olczak, Torres-Costa, Desguin, Owenby and Grist all had fairly to very successful first full seasons. Of the 2016 crop, Jankins seems like the best bet to at least turn into a solid organizational arm given the promotion and decent success last season and the fact that he's the only one who I'd say is a near lock to be on one of the full-season rosters to start the season (partially because the success of the 2015 group, along with some other factors, seems to have made the competition for the A and A+ pitching staffs much tougher this year).
  21. CheeseheadInQC
    Davis is still probably a starter (I've heard people speculate Jon Jay is going to get a shot to start, and Davis was better last year). The amount of money to convince him to go from being a regular on a regular on a World Series team to being a fourth outfielder on a squad in the middle of a rebuilding project would be more than the Brewers would be looking to spend for a fourth outfielder. I'm not sure what the writer was thinking with this one.
  22. CheeseheadInQC
    I'm not sure that I see Liriano and Nieuwenhuis being linked. Based on how he's been building the minors and him nixing Santana in center, I've got a feeling that Stearns would have kept two center fielders no matter what, and I know Liriano has played some center, but isn't he basically a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency center fielder? Liriano's waiving to me is more of a sign that 1) one of the bench spots is going to be filled by someone not the roster right now and 2) Hernan Perez is going to see a fair amount of playing time in the outfield. As far as trades, I'm not saying it is going to be a major deal, but if a team needs a backup outfielder and has a blocked infielder (non-top prospect), I could see him being dealt. I mean, the guys dealt in the Broxton, Flores and Villar deals weren't exactly brimming with perceived value (especially once you subtract Supak's value from Rogers').
  23. CheeseheadInQC
    I know I've made a larger than usual number of posts defending someone I don't consider to be an everyday player, but I can't understand the haste with which some want to get rid of Nieuwenhuis. Jon Jay was only marginally better than him last year and mlbtraderumors has him in line for a 2/$12 million deal. I know Jay has a longer track record, but that also speaks to the lack of quality center fielders at the big league level given that ideally you'd want two on your roster. I could see him being involved in a low-level trade given that he admittedly might not be the best complement to Brewers' lineup, but I think there is enough there where just non-tendering him would be a waste. Also, it wouldn't give you a spot for Williams or Diaz, at least not long term, because the Brewers would have to fill that spot on the big league roster. Given Reed's struggles last year, that player is probably not on the Brewers' 40-man, be it Wren or someone from outside of the organization. And most of the free agents center fielders available at backup prices were worse last year than Nieuwenhuis. Back on topic, it is too bad Barrios' injury led to this. I had been looking forward last year to seeing if he could challenge for a roster spot at some point during the season.
  24. CheeseheadInQC
    If Cowart had shown anything in 139 major league plate appearances or posted a more impressive AAA OPS in hitter friendly Salt Lake City it would make sense. But I can't see Cowart having any appeal to the Brewers, except maybe as a non-roster signee if the Angels cut him loose. I'd rather have Jefry Marte. I would as well, but I think the price for Marte after his success last season might be more than Gennett. Gennett likely has some trade value, but it will likely be for either a slipping prospect such as Cowart who they hope will rebound or a lower level lottery ticket type. Given this thread, Cowart seemed like the most relevant option. As to the Brinson discussion, is it basically just theoretical? Chapman and Candelaria seem a tier below what is being discussed and the guys above them (Moncada, Devers, Senzel) seem to either be a tier above Brinson or the same tier as him.
  25. CheeseheadInQC
    Who knows if he's the type of guy the Brewers would target or if they think he'll hit big league pitching, but on a very surface level a Gennett-Kaleb Cowart deal with the Angels kind of makes sense for both teams.
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