CheeseheadInQC

Looking at it, I think one of the most interesting spots as far as placements go next year will be the A+ pitching staff and the trickle-down effect that it has on the Timber Rattler staff. With a lot of guys who were perhaps pushed a bit this year not really looking good enough to get the promotion to AA, there could be a bit of a backlog with the Rattler staff then filled out by more guys who already have A ball experience than normal, including a fair number who had some success with Wisconsin (Brown, Yamamoto, Desguin, Sanchez, Supak, Jankins, perhaps even Burnes).

One thing that is working in the Brewers' favor is that the free agent crop of starters is pretty sparse. I know the list might grow as options are declined, but the few decent ones are likely to get really overpaid. If he has a solid end to the season, I could see a pitching-needy team looking at Garza as a better option than overpaying Doug Fister or Ivan Nova for more years.

I'm skeptical that Pinto gets added. It's not clear if they really view him as a full-time catcher at this point and he's another one with pretty extreme home/road splits that make it difficult to say he's a legitimate 1B option. Colorado Springs just makes it so tough to judge how good a hitter actually is. Overall I doubt too many hitters are added (outside of the obvious two, maybe Taylor and Coulter). I think the Brewers will protect some of the fringe pitchers over players such as Wren, Orf, Pinto, Roache and Cooper.

While the tone of the initial post felt weird, truthfully he's not all that far off. While the guys this year went exceptionally fast, most college bats drafted toward the top of the first round who end up living up to expectations don't spend much time in the minors. The standard is generally start the first full year in A+ or AA, either get a taste of AAA at the end of that first full season or at the start of the second full season and then get called up sometime during that year as playing time and service time dictate. The overwhelming majority of college bats picked in the first round who succeed at the big league level don't struggle much in the minors once they get acclimated to pro ball. While there are obviously exceptions, if Ray isn't Major League ready to start the 2019 season, the chances of him becoming an above average starter aren't that great.

The best case scenario might be a trade, but I don't think DFA'ing Nieuwenhuis makes sense. There are precious few players right now who can post a .700 OPS and play a credible center field, and teams would probably prefer to have two. As to the other options, Liriano is tough to judge because of the lost season, but Reed has failed to stand out in one of the best hitting environments in minor league baseball and Wren's batting average in Colorado Springs is more than a hundred and twenty points better than his road batting average. I just think Nieuwenhuis is the better player now, and I don't know that any of the other options have proven themselves to be any more a part of the future.

Let's say Braun, Santana and Broxton open next year as the starting outfield. What other outfielders are you going to have on the roster? Even if Perez functions as the fifth outfielder while also backing up most of the infield spots, that still leaves one hole to fill. Who are the other options? Kyle Wren, he of the fairly absurd home/road splits? Michael Reed, who has struggled this year? If it isn't someone on the 40-man roster, who you'd prefer to keep on the 40-man even if they were in the minors, letting Nieuwenhuis go at best gives you a temporary 40-man spot because you have to add one at some point before the season starts anyway. While I know the pay bump he might get in his first year of arbitration eligibility could factor into things, as sad of a commentary as it might be on the state of hitting depth in baseball, Nieuwenhuis is likely an above-average bench outfielder. There aren't that many guys who can play a credible center field and hit. Once you get past the top 20 it starts to go downhill pretty fast. Even with new guys coming up there is a decent chance that Nieuwenhuis sits comfortably between 30 and 40 on the list of center fielders. I could see them trading him more than cutting him. He might not bring back much, but he has some value. Also, I think you overestimate the quality of minor league free agents. Looking back at the list of guys who actually made major league rosters this year, most seem to be either older all-bat pinch hitter types or guys who can hit for neither average nor power at the big league level. Nieuwenhuis at least gives you some pop. You might have better luck on a waiver claim, like Nieuwenhuis was, but once again that takes up a 40-man spot right away.

If Ventura is eligible he's probably the most likely pitcher, in my opinion, for the reasons others have posted. The Brewers usually seem to send one or two "prove it" guys before the 40-man decisions. And while I doubt that he manages to work his way onto the 40-man, Preston Gainey makes a lot of sense for one of the relief spots as well if the Brewers are at all high on him. I also wouldn't be shocked if the Brewers use one of the relief spots as an incentive to re-sign for one of the minor league free agent pitchers they want to keep around. Austin Ross seems like a good candidate for that.

I think Nieuwenhuis sticks around, primarily because I think Brinson starts next year in AAA. Clearing off all of these spots can sound good on paper, but you still need to field an MLB team. There might be some low-hanging fruit to cut from the 40 man, but there can only be 15 that you expect to be in the minor leagues. Ventura will be an interesting case. It's too bad he can't go to the AFL, because he seems like the classic get more info in the AFL guy. After the three locks, I think Diaz (seems like the type of low-level upside guy who would get picked) and Wang, especially if he closes well at AAA, are the next two in line. After that it will provide an interesting window into how the organization views a lot of these guys.

In the non-top 25 prospect division, I'll toss out a couple of Timber Rattler pitchers: Conor Harber (so long as the injury doesn't have long-term implications, that K rate has me thinking he might be the first-to-AAA favorite among the current Rattlers) and Jordan Desguin (good success so far, new enough to pitching not to count the delay getting out of Helena against him).

I'm still skeptical that it is Mendez, but if it is and they play it conservatively at the major league level (maybe Jungmann gets one more shot in the rotation to start the year), their 2017 triple-A rotation could be Hader/Mendez/Ortiz/Woodruff/Lopez. That would be good. That would be very good.

1. Orlando Arcia 2. Lewis Brinson 3. Josh Hader 4. Luis Ortiz 5. Trent Clark 6. Phil Bickford 7. Corey Ray 8. Brett Phillips 9. Isan Diaz 10. Cody Ponce 11. Brandon Woodruff 12. Lucas Erceg 13. Marcos Diplan 14. Jorge Lopez 15. Kodi Medeiros 16. Freddy Peralta 17. Gilbert Lara 18. Monte Harrison 19. Jacob Nottingham 20. Devin Williams 21. Demi Orimoyole 22. Nathan Kirby 23. Troy Stokes 24. Mario Feliciano 25. Zack Brown I think I might be the first to include Brown, and perhaps Woodruff's success has me too high on this year's better-stuff-than-results college draft pick, but Brown's stats thus far with the Timber Rattlers make me optimistic.

I took the injury line from that post to mean something different. I thought he was basically saying that by postponing until the end of the season, if the prospect they were going to choose suffered an injury that affected his long term value, they could instead go with their second choice from the list. That made me think two things: 1. The top choice is more likely a pitcher, given that the type of injuries that affect value past the present season are much more common with pitchers. 2. It is unlikely Matuella because he is shut down for the year so, barring a rehab injury, isn't likely to get more injured in the interim. Then again, who knows. Maybe we're both reading too much into that line. I'd agree that Payano has to be the favorite given the Brewers' apparent interest in him and the fact that he is just far enough down most prospect lists where he would be feasible to be included (count me among those who would be shocked by Mendez). A lot of the other pitchers on LouisEly's list as well as Sadzeck are possibilities as well, in my opinion.

And while it might lose a little bit of star power, next year's high-A staff should be really deep. Even if one of the Peralta/Diplan pair end up in the Biloxi rotation (let's say it's Peralta for the sake of argument), assuming everyone is healthy you still could see a starting five consisting of five guys from the mlb.com top 30 prospects list: Kodi Medeiros, Marcos Diplan, Miguel Diaz, Devin Williams, Nathan Kirby Plus a bullpen consisting of some combination of four guys who in past years likely would have been given another chance to start (Bubba Derby, Eric Hanhold, David Burkhalter, Conor Harber), Taylor Williams if they want to ease him back in, and three guys who've had good years for the Rattlers (Nate Griep, Scott Grist, Drew Owenby). And that's not even mentioning the guys who'll likely be anchoring the Wisconsin rotation who in past years might have started off in A+ (Zack Brown, Corbin Burnes, Jordan Yamamoto) or the possibility that the PTBNL might slot in here too if it is someone such as Payano.

Most of mine have already been said, so I'll just add that despite him being sent to the purgatory that is the bullpen on a tandem starting team, I'm bizarrely intrigued by Conor Harber. The draft write-up made him sound like a guy with a decent arm who hadn't put it all together yet, and he has pitched well since joining the organization. Probably not a future top prospect, but maybe a guy who could be in roughly the spot Barnes is in now in a few years.

Was Rogers really that big of a disappointment? It seemed based on the stats as if his spring was more just an exaggeration of his strengths and deficiencies rather than out-and-out bad. It seemed the Pirates' first base depth had more to do with him being sent down than his performance did.

I'm really wondering about the rotation because it seems like Woodruff was being stretched out to start as well. Either someone surprising is going to the pen or someone is hurt.

On the more aggressive side of the ledger, it looks like a minimum of seven guys drafted last year are beginning the year at BC (Iskenderian, Allemand, Cuas, Ponce, Derby, Hanhold, Olczak).

Unless a couple of guys got cut that I didn't see, I think that leaves 28 players left competing for the AAA spots C: Weisenburger, Pinto, Pina 1B: Wilkins 2B: Perez SS: Arcia, Elmore 3B: Cecchini, Middlebrooks OF: Reed, Presley, Guez, Young, Peterson SP: Lopez, Davies, Guerra, Suter, Burgos RP: Goforth, Barnes, Magnifico, Ross, Cravy, Lambson, Miller, Dillard, Hall Some of the assignments are surprising, but outside of a couple of ones with non-top prospects such as Chapman and Orf, who both should probably be in AAA, most of the issues could be solved simply with two chain reaction promotions, one in the outfield and the other in the rotation (Note: I'm not including Houser in this group because I still think his assignment to Biloxi was predictable and understandable given his shorter track record of success and the potential desire on the Brewers' part to be surer what they have in him before sending him into the hitters' paradise).

Sorry, should have used first names. Rene Garcia. They had a third catcher essentially on a taxi squad to start the season at every level last year if I remember correctly, and because they are carrying 27 right now, I'm assuming a third catcher will join Nottingham and Berberet.

If I had to guess, the four position players not mentioned (It sounds like they are taking 14 position players and 13 pitchers) might be Nottingham, McFarland, Betancourt and Garcia, with Coulter back to BC.

Kind of judging by who has been starting, for AAA I'd toss off guesses of Lopez, Davies, Guerra, Burgos and either Suter or Cravy for the 5th spot. Woodruff starting yesterday's A/A+ game might not mean anything, but I wonder if he's the odd man out, with the AA rotation being Hader, Houser, Ortega, Wang and either Johnson or, if they are moving Johnson to the bullpen, Salas. If Woodruff is in the BC rotation, though, that means one of two things. Either: 1) Bubba Derby's placement with BC in the spring games was just a matter of where he could get innings and he is starting the season with Wisconsin, or 2) One of the four who had been looked at as locks for the BC rotation (Ponce, Medeiros, Williams and Ventura) isn't for some reason.

It's possible. I was trying to project where everyone would get sent and even with extremely conservative placements (Orf, Ramirez and Wren back to Biloxi; Coulter and Brennan back to BC) if they are going with Pena as the backup catcher in BC until Leal gets healthy, there does appear to be a roster spot vacant and the only guys I couldn't find room for at higher levels (excluding the guys who will inevitably hit the disabled list with third catcher-itis) were Shane Peterson and Brandon Macias. I guess they could send Macias back down, but I don't know if I'd classify it as likely. If they have an outfielder skip Wisconsin, though, it might be Collymore. He had success in Helena last year, and I believe he is the oldest of the group that was competing for a spot in the Timber Rattler outfield.

I was basing the Clark guess on Mehring's article here where it seems to indicate the Wisconsin opening day starting lineup will probably be something like McDowell, Sharkey, Neuhaus, Diaz, Gatewood, Harrison, Stokes, Belonis and Denson with Ghelfi, Aviles and Rubio as likely bench players. As for Coulter, the guess was more because I can't see them promoting Taylor instead of Phillips and I doubt they'd try to shoehorn Phillips, Roache, Taylor and Coulter onto one team.

Hader is facing the Brewers in the Biloxi exhibition game (tweet), a pretty good indicator he'll be with the Shuckers. Thanks, I missed that. With Hader and Phillips ticketed for Biloxi, Coulter recently playing for BC (I know that doesn't necessarily mean anything, but ...) and Clark not mentioned in Mehring's article today, the placements are seeming really conservative this year.

When did that news come out about Hader? I'd seen Houser had been optioned to Biloxi, but I hadn't seen anything about Hader.