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CheeseheadInQC

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Everything posted by CheeseheadInQC

  1. CheeseheadInQC
    The problem for the mid-majors is that the middles of the conferences have gotten a lot weaker, which gives the top teams fewer chances for decent wins and a lot less margin for error on having an off night. Illinois State went 17-1 in the MVC and is firmly on the bubble only because, other than Wichita State, none of the other conference wins counted for much. That wasn't the case when the conference was placing five teams in the RPI top 50. Even the A-10, which is still the deepest of the mids, isn't what it used to be. Some of this is because of conference expansion (Butler, Xavier, Creighton, etc.) but other programs that used to be perennially top 50 or at least top 100 need to get back to that level to strengthen the case for their conferences getting more bids.
  2. CheeseheadInQC
    I guess it depends on how different players are doing, but I'd be more willing to use some of the minor league guys to increase the team's upside, but not necessarily by trading them. Let's say that they are contending because their pitching has been surprisingly decent. Maybe Davies 3.50 ERA, Nelson and Peralta bounce back to 3.70, Guerra doesn't regress as much as feared and ends up in the 3s somewhere and Garza is posting a 4.10. I'd look to deal Garza to open up a spot for Hader. Increase the risk, but increase the upside. If there is a weak spot in the bullpen, move Jungmann or Lopez to the pen and call them up. I don't want them trading off significant prospects for short-term gains when there are questions about whether the winning is sustainable, but holding a fire sale while contending would be kind of demoralizing, and unless the return was great, I'm not sure it would be worth the lost momentum even in the long term.
  3. CheeseheadInQC
    Prime Mike Cameron would probably be a top 3 center fielder in baseball right now, so that isn't exactly a negative. Given a lot of their acquisitions, I wonder if the Brewers are basically trying to get to the point where they have three center field types who each have some pop.
  4. CheeseheadInQC
    Technically that might be true, but if there were specifications set out in advance and the Red Sox go back on them, it could limit their ability to make deals that include a PTBNL in the future because other GMs wouldn't trust them.
  5. CheeseheadInQC
    While the majority are either top prospects, recent high draft picks or guys such who had good seasons last year, it is interesting to see a few of the other names on the list. Maybe they are higher on Drossner or Salas (between this and the AFL) than their stats last year would indicate.
  6. CheeseheadInQC
    Do you really think they'd go without a lefty? (that's what surprised me most about Haudricourt's projection as well.) I think right now barring a trade or injury, it's looking like guys you mentioned as locks or near locks, plus the sixth starter, plus either Milone or Suter, which makes it tough for Lopez, Jungmann, Cravy or the NRIs to crack the opening day roster, although given the annual bullpen churn and the fact that they are already on the 40-man, I fully expect those three plus Suter (if Milone gets the lefty spot) to see time in Milwaukee at some point in the season.
  7. CheeseheadInQC
    Brewers Record: 77-85 Playoffs: No Brewers MVP: Braun (although if Broxton shows no ill effects from the injury early on, I'd probably switch) Brewers Cy Young: Davies (Not sure if he'll be the team's best pitcher by season's end, but the cumulative body of work will be the best) Brewers ROY: Hader First player traded: Torres (For some reason I've got a feeling he gets dealt before the All-Star break) Surprise player: Jungmann (brought up a month or two into the season and ends up excelling out of the bullpen) Disappointing player: Shaw (not sure why I'm more skeptical about him than some of the risk/reward guys, but I am) World Series: Nationals over the Red Sox
  8. CheeseheadInQC
    The fact that this is even being discussed makes me think that the plan is a 13-man staff, and that works out because the Brewers are probably deeper with big league caliber middle relievers than they are with big league caliber bench bats.
  9. CheeseheadInQC
    I'm not sure how much the veteran catcher thing is going to come into play. While Nelson and Davies aren't exactly veterans, they both have a season-plus under their belts, and there is a chance in this scenario that by the time guys such as Hader and Woodruff get called up, Wieters would be dealt.
  10. CheeseheadInQC
    I'm not sure what to make of this move. He's not really a platoon partner, given his reverse splits, and he has no real versatility or minor league options. Unless they see something they think they can fix to get him to hit lefties the way most right-handers who put up his kind of stats against righties do, I guess I'm not really seeing the upside. Given that this is a multi-year problem, I'm not even sure he offers more upside than Cooper at AAA if they can get him through waivers.
  11. CheeseheadInQC
    Unless they have some reason to believe, other than park factor, to think he's going to suddenly going to be a better hitter than he's been the past few seasons, I'm not sure I'm seeing it. Chances are, his defense is unlikely to bounce back to where it was back in that 2010-2012 stretch, and the pitch framing concerns that are likely giving some teams pause probably aren't going to go away either. The "changing catchers in midseason" thing we heard about last year might not have hurt the Brewers much with Lucroy, but he was probably the best in the game and had an extra year of relatively inexpensive control. Unless Wieters suddenly becomes significantly better than the average catcher he's been lately, I wouldn't expect the return to be much more than what the Brewers got for Maldonado. Basically Wieters would increase the Brewers' floor in a season when they shouldn't be worrying about floor without increasing their ceiling enough to justify putting off finding out what they have with the in-house options. This isn't like Feliz where Knebel and Barnes will still get their chances to pitch, and likely in some higher-leverage situations. If Wieters is catching, that means the other guys aren't, and I don't think that is worth whatever benefit there might be.
  12. CheeseheadInQC
    No real harm, but it does seem like the Brewers have more fringy bullpen arms than it would take to fill the last couple MLB spots and all of ones in Colorado Springs.
  13. CheeseheadInQC
    In the longshot event they are actually in the race at the deadline, this lessens the pressure to acquire a bullpen piece at that point. Also, if Knebel and Barnes can prove their mettle in high-leverage situations, it probably doesn't hurt their value to not be closing as much as it used to.
  14. CheeseheadInQC
    Thames is probably the Brewer least likely to surprise me this year. In order to surprise, I have to have some idea what to expect. Basically I'd be surprised if he was an MVP contender or so bad they eat the money and DFA him this season. Anything in between seems perfectly plausible.
  15. CheeseheadInQC
    A lot of this discussion kind of illustrates why I doubt Braun gets dealt. Stearns' statements seem to point to only trading him if it makes baseball sense. The Brewers have a low payroll and Garza either coming off the books or getting substantially cheaper after this season. Their top guaranteed 2018 contract other than Braun is $5 million for Thames. At this point Braun's contract probably matters more to the acquiring team than it does to the Brewers. The impetus for a salary dump just isn't there, and any such trade would hurt them both perception-wise and baseball-wise. Maybe if the Brewers take on a bad contract or two (as in the Dodgers deal that apparently was close) they could get a return that makes sense baseball-wise, but barring that I just don't see anything happening.
  16. CheeseheadInQC
    Yah, at the time the Broxton for Rogers part made a lot of sense for both teams. Broxton was a blocked wild card and Pittsburgh needed a first baseman who could get them by until the longterm answer was ready (How it ended up, with the Pirates trying to acquire every semi-decent first baseman they could get their hands on, is another matter). The contending team took a higher floor guy who put together good at-bats and had some big league success, and the rebuilding team got a blocked high-ceiling, low-floor prospect. Broxton looks like he will work out, but this was the type of trade that made sense for both teams. Getting a pitching prospect as intriguing as Supak along with Broxton, however, was a nice piece of work. As for bringing Rogers back, it might make some sense if they are going to be going with five bench bats, as he'd probably be a better pinch-hitting option than Sogard or Rivera, but I've got a feeling they will be keeping 13 pitchers this season.
  17. CheeseheadInQC
    I'd go: C: Susac IF: Thames, Villar, Arcia, Shaw OF: Braun, Broxton, Santana Bench: Pina (Bandy to AAA), Perez, Gennett, Nieuwenhuis Starters: Davies, Guerra, Peralta, Garza, Nelson Relievers: Knebel, Torres, Barnes, Anderson, Milone, Marinez, Blazek, Scahill Cravy, Suter and Jungmann start in AAA, barring injuries, but given how teams cycle through pitchers, be it for injuries, ineffectiveness or trades, I'd imagine all three will get an extended shot to solidify their spot in the bullpen by year's end (and I've got Jungmann as my darkhorse pick to be the 8th-inning guy by September).
  18. CheeseheadInQC
    I don't see Broxton getting dealt unless the Brewers are absolutely sold that he's a fluke just because he is probably the toughest guy to correctly value. If the second half of last season is even close to sustainable, you might just have the best center fielder in the National League, a guy worth more than the White Sox got for Eaton. If the first half form comes back, you've got a nice pinch-runner/defensive replacement. He has tons of tools but almost no track record. He has eye-popping numbers, but in a combination that gives you almost no points for comparison and makes him nearly impossible to project. Also, is a contender going to place as much value in a high ceiling, low floor guy as a rebuilding team such as the Brewers' would or would they want more of a sure thing? A trade between the Brewers and a second rebuilding team might actually be more likely if he gets dealt, but I just don't see it happening.
  19. CheeseheadInQC
    With Clark, I don't know that I'd knock him down too far, at least for his batting statistics. From what I remember from looking it up a while back, high schoolers going straight to A ball their first full season routinely struggle. It's more of a great sign if they don't than a bad sign if they do. Based on the chat, I've got a feeling that in their view the Brewers have a clear top 12 (with Dubon and Phillips as the other two), followed by a small gap down to a tier with Lopez, Peralta, Nottingham and perhaps a few others.
  20. CheeseheadInQC
    Yah, the Brewers are a pretty tough team to project. Their only two starting pitchers to put together two solid halves were rookies, their bullpen is getting remade, outside of Braun they don't have a lot of experience on offense, Thames is pretty much impossible to project under a stats-based model and Fangraphs themselves has written so many articles on how bizarre Broxton's statistical profile is that it wouldn't have surprised me if there had just been an NA next to his name with an asterisk leading to a footnote saying that trying to run his numbers caused their computer to start on fire. And you know what, I'm perfectly fine with that. During a rebuild is the time to be high-risk, high-reward. There's no point in raising the floor from 65 to 70 wins if it doesn't change or lowers the ceiling.
  21. CheeseheadInQC
    I haven't run the numbers for the first round yet, but eye-balling the picks after 35, that might bump the average up to 95 or so per team over that period. Between factoring in that a lot of those players still have time to increase their WAR and that the current system place an emphasis on signability and often below-slot deals in rounds 6-10 in order to increase the chances of signing above-slot guys drafted after that, I'd say the evidence points to 10, maybe 12 WAR being the per team, per year average going forward for rounds 2-10.
  22. CheeseheadInQC
    This is going back a bit, but on the conversation about the Brewers' drafting in rounds 2-10, I had too much time on my hands tonight so I thought I'd see how it tested out compared to league averages. Among players drafted and signed in rounds 2-10 between 2000 and 2010, the average team's draftees earned about 84 WAR. The Brewers' earned about 111. I'm not sure if they had a smaller number of their draftees crack the majors, but as far as overall impact goes, they've actually come out ahead of the game. Most guys drafted in those rounds either flame out in the minors or barely make an impact in the majors. Expecting more than one a year, on average, to become a significant big league contributor is setting yourself up for disappointment. J.J. Hardy alone, based on WAR, is roughly equivalent to three years of an average team's draft during those rounds.
  23. CheeseheadInQC
    It will be interesting to see, but outside of last year, have the Brewers ever implemented the tandem starters at A+? And even last year I think it was just done occasionally with the guys who were promoted from Wisconsin and had been tandem starters there. It might be just as likely that a few get moved to the bullpen and others get held back at Wisconsin for at least part of the season.
  24. CheeseheadInQC
    Yah, thanks to a combination of trades, injuries, the fact that a number of the guys at BC last year probably should have been in low A, an abnormally strong 2015 college pitching draft class and a strong start for a few of the 2016 guys, the Brewers have more guys who should be in the A+ starting rotation than there are spots. Unless they go to tandem starters at Carolina as well, I think a number of the guys you've got in A+ will end up back at Wisconsin for at least a while. I'm also thinking they go conservative to start the year with the outfielders, with Harrison and Clark in Wisconsin for at least the first month or two.
  25. CheeseheadInQC
    I have no real problem with Gennett being on the roster next season as the alternatives aren't exactly great. If you look at the guys left for the sixth infield spot, you have guys who will be more expensive, guys who are more versatile but can't really hit and guys who might be available in a trade (a T.J. Rivera type) but would cost you something of value. Scooter doesn't cost anything to acquire, can take one position off Perez' backup plate and had a similar or better OPS last year as a lot of the first and third basemen still available in free agency. He might not be ideal, but he probably provides more value than most of the alternatives for his spot, and if a team's second baseman gets hurt during the season, you've got a trade chip.
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