CheeseheadInQC
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Everything posted by CheeseheadInQC
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It all depends on which of two theories you believe. Under the first, the player is on the 40-man roster, but Brewers want 40-man roster flexibility through the Rule 5 draft, allowing them to make a roster move afterward if they draft a player rather than having to make a roster move before the draft and then having the guy they were targeting get taken before them (or freeing up space until more of their trading is done). Under the second, the player the teams agreed upon is Rule 5 draft eligible, but the Brewers would rather not spend a 40-man spot on him so they are waiting to make the transaction official until after the draft. In this case, if the player is selected by a different team, a different prospect would be inserted into the deal (possibly a slightly better one but with the Brewers sending someone else back, necessitating the Brewers' PTBNL being included in the deal even though both sides say only the Tigers' is guaranteed to be used).
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I think it has everything to do with the Rule 5 draft coming up. It could be a guy who could be picked, but if Detroit has a low-ranked farm system would they have anyone who is in danger of getting picked? Wouldn't they be able to protect every decent prospect on the 40-man? I think ZBTMP is on to it: Any particular reason why they'd be a "Named later" in November. On the 40 man? It could very well be one of Detroit's top prospects, and the Brewers want the Tigers to use a 40-man spot for the Rule 5 draft as well as the next few months until the Brewers can clear another 40-man spot by dealing Lind. This allows the Brewers to get an upper-level prospect from the Tigers as well as nab someone in the Rule 5 draft and have an extra roster spot for up to 6 months. Unless I'm wrong, that would limit it to Fulmer (I can't see it being Fulmer), Moya or Cessa. Personally I think it is more likely it is just the Brewers being extra careful on someone such as Labourt. They probably don't want to risk assuming someone won't get picked and then having it happen.
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I've got feeling if more spots open up it might be on the pitching side rather than the hitting side. Right now, they only 15 position players, and if you assume 13 on the opening day roster that only leaves two in the minors. If they want Reed and Rivera to get more Triple-A time, that puts you right at 13. If they DFA Herrera, Peterson or Fields for a guy who isn't going to be in the majors next season, they'd just have to open a roster spot come opening day. And I'd much rather leave a fringe guy available for the Rule 5 draft where they have to be on the 25-man roster than protect them only to have to waive them later when all a team needs is a 40-man roster spot. They might be able to get away with DFAing one of hitters if they are assuming that Pena and Guerra are going to be fighting it out for one job and that their vacated 40-man spot could be filled with an NRI to open the season, but any more than that and they might be asking for trouble.
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I know a lot of the more interesting names are pitchers, but as a matter of simply filling rosters, it seems hitters would be a bigger issue for the Brewers. I'm sure they'll sign a couple of pitchers (and the AA grouping isn't quite as good) but right now, depending on how the MLB roster shakes out, you might be looking at a AAA pitching staff of Lopez, Wagner, Houser, Hader, Cravy, Suter, Magnifico, Barrios, Goforth, Strong, Thornburg, Barnes and Ross with Johnson, Gagnon, Bradley and Hall as potential backup options. On the other hand there might be open roster spots on the top two levels for one more outfielder, two more infielders and, if they stash third catchers again, three or four catchers. They've got a couple extra AAA outfielders, but that is about it as far as benches go above A ball. If they have one of those veteran hitters they like as a clubhouse guy, that isn't the worst thing. If someone like Orr fills the role well and is willing to come back, why not, especially when most of the middle infield playing time at AAA will be going to Arcia and Rivera.
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I've been wrong before, but personally I'd be shocked if Clark didn't start the year in full-season ball. While the placements of Medeiros and Burkhalter was something of an anomaly (had a high school pitcher started the season after he was drafted in A ball for the Brewers since Gallardo?), the placement of Harrison and Gatewood really wasn't. Heck, Lawrie hadn't even played a minor league game from what I remember. Clark had the best walk to strikeout rate with the Arizona squad and then walked more than he struck out in his short time in Helena. A lot of the normal red flags that might exist with a guy like Demi aren't there with Clark. Does that guarantee he'll succeed? Of course not. But between Clark's play, the Brewers' history and the team's statements about him being a guy who could move fast through the organization, I just can't see him not starting the season off on a full-season roster if he is healthy.
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In order to fill out a roster, once teams get through their "preferred pick" among the position players, isn't it pretty position dependent? Given the lack of eligible infield prospects in the upper levels for the Brewers, Orf likely has a better-than-average chance at being one of the picks simply because the Brewers might have to supply an infielder.
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2016 Opening day organizational rotations
CheeseheadInQC replied to ebmackenzie's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
You really think Ventura gets taken in the Rule 5 draft and sticks on a big league roster? I guess it is possible, but personally I doubt it. I'd toss him onto the Brevard rotation, with Sneed going to Biloxi. I'm guessing they also stick with the upside guys in the rotation at Biloxi, meaning Wang, Woodruff and Houser join Ortega and Sneed with Salas long relief in Biloxi and Hirsch long relief at Brevard. At Wisconsin, I'd say Burkhalter (someone from that Wisconsin group is probably going to repeat), Diplan, Diaz, Yamamoto and Hanhold are probably the most likely tandem guys, with 2015 draft picks and the former DSL guys who weren't ready for A ball this year filling the remaining spots. -
Parra to Orioles for Zach Davies
CheeseheadInQC replied to billymac's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
While it will probably be a moot point because I expect he will be traded, I'm not so sure Parra would accept a QO. While the free agent market for outfielders will be deeper this year, Nick Markakis and Melky Cabrera I believe both got multi-year deals with at least $11 million per year coming off seasons with an OPS 100+ points lower than what Parra has this year. If he keeps this up, it wouldn't shock me if he is seeking something in the neighborhood of 4-48 in the offseason. -
Cody Ponce Promoted to Class A
CheeseheadInQC replied to superfly's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
While the rest of this year will have a lot to do with it, it will be interesting to see how the Brevard rotation shakes out next year. You could have five legitimate candidates from the group that has been with Wisconsin most of the year (Williams, Ventura, Medeiros, Burkhalter and Hirsch), the two high draft picks (Ponce and Kirby) and the possibility of a holdover from the Wang, Woodruff, Sneed group. -
Your 2015 Helena / Maryvale Brewers
CheeseheadInQC replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Unless he's going to be joining the Timber Rattlers after the most recent round of outfield promotions fully trickle down, I also find it weird that Matt Martin isn't on the team. He hit really well last year in the Arizona League. Plus while the position he is apparently playing now (outfield) and the one that he played last year (catcher) are both kind of short-handed at Helena, they aren't in Arizona (where they have six 20-or-younger outfielders vying for time). Denson, Martin and the fact that every college pitcher taken after Round 8 is starting in Arizona are probably my biggest surprises. -
Your 2014 Nashville Sounds
CheeseheadInQC replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I have to think one of the utility guys is hurt and that is the reason for keeping so many (although I guess that would only be one less). The club still has three too many players, and while two of the likely DL candidates are May (this year's conveniently injured catcher?) and Parker (did he play at all this spring?), the third one almost has to be one of the infielders, right? As for Mattison, I guess the only explanation is that the club wanted a "true" center fielder instead of playing Gindl or Davis there. Not sure that's the best move but ... -
Seriously?? Last I checked, Lance Roenicke still has a spot. He's both older than McMahan and hasn't shown anything close to what McMahan showed just two years ago. Golson is gone so he won't get bumped either. Walla? 280 AB's at Wisconsin, and zero HR? For a corner OF? At some point his draft status should be meaningless. McMahan was released because his last name wasn't Roenicke. Nepotism is alive and well in the Brewer system. I never said I agreed with it, and you're right that there is a good case to be made for keeping him, just that it wasn't shocking. He wasn't really projected to get a starting spot either in Huntsville or Brevard. Figure one or two backup outfielders per team, let's say three or four total. Stang put up similar numbers to McMahon in Brevard and can play center, which is helpful, so he is probably slightly in front, and even with Golson gone, they seem to like Hermida and Mattison, and if they keep them both someone is likely getting bumped down to AA. That would leave one or two spots for between Walla, Roenicke, McMahon and Mittlestaedt. Like I said, especially if they keep two from that group, I'd probably have guessed McMahon, but when you get down to the projected last spot, it is hard to call it a shock. As for Walla and Roenicke still being on the team, there are still more players in camp than spots, so nothing is secure. It wouldn't shock me if one still gets cut and the other accepts the kind of offer Seidel rejected.
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What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
CheeseheadInQC replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
So you're saying the Brewers are awful at developing pitchers, but that you'd rather go with one of the pitchers they've developed. I'm not saying Wang is guaranteed success, but he has shown enough that I'm hoping they put him on the roster, use him in low-leverage situations and see how it all plays out. You have Henderson, Rodriguez, Kintzler and Smith for the late innings and Figaro and Duke/Gorzelanny for the higher leverage multi-inning stints. If he bombs, they can always call up Wooten and either try to make a trade with Pittsburgh or just offer Wang back later, but I'm willing to take the chance on a promising lefty who doesn't walk anyone. -
The pitching heavy drafts the past few years have created a bit of a bullpen backlog, and something had to give. However, I'm really surprised they couldn't find spots for Wall and to some extent even Williams (although as earlier noted, there could be other considerations there). Giacalone and to a slightly lesser degree Harris and Jenkins are also surprises. I'm not that surprised by McMahon, though. The third spot in Huntsville along with Haniger and Richardson was the only real full season starting spot up for grabs, and I have a feeling Kjeldgaard gets that one. After that, there's a decent-sized group competing for the Huntsville and Brevard County backup outfield spots many of whom have advantages over McMahon: ability to play center (Stang), ability to play the infield (Mittlestaedt), draft status (Walla), etc. Plus, Golson or Mattison could end up getting bumped down to Huntsville. McMahon just got caught up in a numbers game.
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While there is no perfect film in the bunch, as a whole I thought this was an above average year, especially for acting. Sure, American Hustle got massively overrated given the storytelling problems and pacing issues that led it to add up to much less than the sum of its parts (problems shared by Wolf of Wall Street). Both could at least be enjoyed as acting showcases, though. And I'd argue the quintet of Her, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, Captain Phillips and Nebraska could match up against the top five nominees from any of the past few years. Personally, I ended up rooting for nominees from seven different films in the "top eight" categories (picture-Her, director-Cuaron, actor-McConaughey, actress-Adams, sup. actor-Abdi, sup. actress-Nyong'o, screenplay-Her and Before Midnight).
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Along with some of the ones mentioned, I'd toss in Yadiel Rivera. His K rate dropped to a more manageable number last year. Unfortunately much of the power he showed the previous year was gone, too. There's a decent chance these two things are related, but if he could regain that power without the strikeouts becoming a problem again, he becomes a lot more interesting.
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2014 Nashville Line Up/Roster
CheeseheadInQC replied to Mr Southpaw's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
It's going to be interesting to see how the pitching staff shakes out. I really have a feeling Thornburg starts the year in the AAA rotation, which would likely make it Thornburg, Nelson, Hellweg, Burgos and Fiers in the rotation, Jungmann in AA and Pena moving to the pen. In the bullpen, you'll have the losers of the fight for the last two Brewer bullpen spots (I'm guessing Blazek and Figaro beat out Wooten and de la Torre), Pena, Goforth, Shackleford, Hand and Heckathorn. That leaves Seidel, Mills, Molleken, Leach, Lowe, Marzec, Olmsted, Holle and Medlen fighting for one spot, with a few of them inevitably ending up in the AA pen. Injuries could change this, and there's always a chance they move Goforth into the AA rotation, but the depth is interesting. -
2014 Nashville Line Up/Roster
CheeseheadInQC replied to Mr Southpaw's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Is this really that big of a deal? To me this would only be a significant issue if one of two things were true: 1) Rogers is shaky at first and needs to be playing there to iron out defensive issues or 2) he is taking playing time from an actual outfield prospect. I'll admit I haven't seen Rogers enough (just a couple of games when he was with the Rattlers) to be able to gauge his defense at first nor have I read much about his play there. If that is an issue, fine. The second really isn't, though. If Gindl makes the opening day roster, the other outfield options at Nashville will be Kentrail Davis, three utility guys who could also see time in the infield and three minor league free agents. If Haniger and Richardson force their way up to AAA during the season, then it might become an issue. Otherwise, no. I doubt the Brewers would have added Rogers to the 40-man roster if they didn't think there was a decent chance he'd end up a better option than Morris and Halton. If that's what they believe, I think they should let them fight it out in Nashville. It wouldn't shock me at all if Rogers ended up being the best of the bunch. -
Although the Brewers are definitely going to have troubles juggling playing time at first in spring training, I think it will likely be more of a four-man rotation than a five-man. The Brewers have six players listed as outfielders on their 40-man roster and I believe zero outfield NRIs. Plus one of those six, Herrera, could see some time in the infield as well. Although it is probably not where his future lies, I could see Halton getting a lot of at-bats as a corner outfielder in spring training just to get him into the lineup and see how his bat looks.
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I guess I wouldn't mind Young on a relatively inexpensive one year deal if Davis can't be had for cheap. It is at least better than over-paying in money or prospects for some of the other options out there. Also, I was looking at the stats for the three first basemen likely to start the season in Nashville. I can't remember, was there ever any kind of explanation given for Jason Rogers' June? If he was struggling through an injury or something, all of a sudden his season compares quite well with with the numbers Morris put up the year before.
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If Davis could be had for maybe Fiers and a mid-level relief prospect in a change-of-scenery deal, that might be the best option at this point. I'm just not sure a 3/$27 deal for a guy who at his best has just been OK at best is a great move long term. Signing Ishikawa to a minor league deal and having a spring training battle royal with him, Halton, Morris, Rogers and Green might be a slightly worse option than Loney next year but would probably be better long term.

