CheeseheadInQC

As tempting as it is to simply respond with the rabies headline clip from Vicar of Dibley (my wife's an Anglophile so these are my points of reference), I guess it isn't entirely outside the realm of possibility. I think it would, however, require a specific set of circumstances. First, there would have to be several long term injuries. I can't see them adding him to the 40-man for a spot start or two. Second, he would have to be strong enough this spring to be clearly ahead of all of the options who are on the 40-man. It isn't impossible, but I'd have a tough time going over 5% for the chance and definitely wouldn't go into double digits.

With pitchers and catchers reporting, I thought I would celebrate by delving into one of my favorite topics, a random assemblage of minor league statistics. There were a lot to choose from, ranging from Darrien Miller's caught stealing percentage to a bunch of guys' strikeout rates, but here are three others to keep your eye on. 1. Ground ball rate, Jadher Areinamo If you were to construct batted ball stats for a hitter without a ton of power, there is a decent chance that they would look similar to Areinamo's in the complex league last season. He was fifth in the ACL in line drive rate (25%) and split the others relatively evenly between ground balls (40%) and fly balls (35%). He hit the ball to all fields. He had the fourth lowest swinging strike rate in the ACL. He walked as often as he struck out. And he hit doubles, lots of doubles. Almost 10% of his plate appearances ended up in extra base hits. After his promotion to Carolina, many of those traits remained. He still hit a healthy number of line drives. His swinging strike rate was still down in Hendry Mendez territory. Two things did change, though. His ground ball rate jumped more than 15% and the doubles power disappeared. You might be wondering why I didn't pick one of the obvious choices for this stat: Garrett Mitchell, Hendry Mendez or, as Smichaelis9 mentioned in his top prospect list, Daniel Guilarte. The reason is because while the stats might measure success, each of those would likely require swing changes, so the changes could be seen before the results are (if Mendez could duplicate Areinamo's line drive and fly ball rates from the ACL he is probably a top 100 prospect). With Areinamo, it is not about the swing. The Complex League stats proved that. It is about continuing to make quality contact as he faces increasingly good pitching moving up the ladder. Restoring his ACL batted ball splits would be a good way putting him on track to maximize his potential. 2. Walk rate, Jeferson Quero There seems to be one thing that is keeping some of the national prospect evaluators from being as high on Quero as some on this site (including obviously me). It is not his defense or intangibles. Those garner universal praise. It isn't the hit tool. He made it up to high-A during his age-19 season without ever topping a 20% strikeout rate at any level. And it isn't his power, which seems more than adequate for the position. No, the question involves Quero's approach at the plate, namely if it is too aggressive. And, to be fair, the 2.4% walk rate after his promotion to high-A seems to bear that out. The thing is, it wasn't always this way. Before getting injured, Quero posted a 14.5% walk rate in the ACL, walking more than he struck out. But each move up the ladder has led to fewer walks. He has enough going for him that he might be able to become a legitimate starting catcher even with a walk rate closer to 5% than 10%. But to be a true impact player at the position rather than just one of the top 30, the walk rate probably needs to start climbing back closer to double digits, especially since, given how scarce .300 hitters are in general these days, he probably doesn't hit .313 in the big leagues like he did in Wisconsin. 3. ISO, Gregory Barrios Remember all of those elements about Areinamo's batted ball stats that I praised earlier? What if I were to tell you that there was another Complex League infielder who in many ways mirrored Areinamo? Balanced LD/GB/FB rates? Check. Uses all fields? Check. Where Areinamo was fourth in the ACL in swinging strike rate, he was sixth. And to top it off, he is already one of the steadiest middle infield defenders in the Brewers' system. He also has yet to get a single point on our most recent prospect poll, and I believe I was highest on him, putting him at No. 38. So why isn't Gregory Barrios getting more prospect love? It comes down to the fact that if you added his ISOs from his first two seasons of pro ball together, you still wouldn't get to .1. Ultimately, he needs to at least develop doubles power to make a mark in a system that is suddenly flush with lower minor league infielders. If he manages to do that, though, it seems possible that he could be one of the bigger risers in the system this season.

I get the frustration. I never got how many random things can go wrong on a website until I took a digital marketing job and within months was cursing out one of our sites’ fixed navigation bars for causing a layout shift.

I still have pop culture reference points, but they are weird ones. Like the celebrity cameo that my wife and I commented on most were the “What Does the Fox Say?” guys because they were on the first season of Taskmaster Norway. I’m not the biggest Rihanna fan, but the halftime show was fine. So often lately they focus so much attention on getting big name cameos outside the main performers or multiple massive set pieces that it just devolves into incoherence. This one felt positively staid in comparison.

The problem is some of the articles are generating discussion you say you want. If you want to make a case for the Brewers history ones feeding into a different category, that I might be able to get behind, but until I actually see them overwhelming threads with ongoing discussion, I don’t think it is a big deal.

Lot of people who are or were in journalism. I spent a decade and a half as a night shift copy editor before deciding I needed normal hours.

The articles are fine if they go in depth on the transaction, but instead of posting a new thread for them, I'd just suggest having a "Join the discussion" link to the existing thread at the end of the article and then posting a link to the article in the thread to let people know of its existence if they go straight to the forum.

I don’t know if it’s just my phone, but the actual forum topics seem to be blipping in and out of responsiveness, with it going to 1 1/2 to 2 times the screen. I haven’t had the issue anywhere else on the site.

I have no real problem with it. You have to be aware that there is a saturation point, but I don’t think it’s gone past that. It is just more obvious now because we are in the pre-Spring Training dead zone. I have one complaint, and this might have either been fixed or not be possible, I haven’t checked lately. I wish comments could be merged so there aren’t parallel discussions.

Spring Training MVP: Keston Hiura - This seems bizarrely inevitable Surprise OD roster inclusion(s): Gus Varland - They figure out a way to keep the Rule 5 pick Surprise OD roster omission(s): Peter Strzelecki - Nothing against Strzelecki, but between Varland and all the guys without options, unless injuries pop up, it seems possible he or Cousins will start in AAA and, well, see below Breakout(s): Abraham Toro, Jake Cousins Disappointment(s): Brian Anderson, the lefty they inevitably sign between now and the start of the season Bounceback(s): Jesse Winker, Freddy Peralta Season MVP: Corbin Burnes Cy Young: Corbin Burnes Reliever of the Year: Jake Cousins - OK, so I wanted to have one more answer no one had said yet Rookie of the Year: Sal Frelick Bold Prediction: Abraham Toro ends up being a top 15 3rd baseman. Brewers Record: 89-73 Postseason? Yes

Wasn’t Brustoski the guy someone commented had big league stuff right now if he had any idea where it was going? Outside of Misiorowski, the Brewers might lack much star power on the mound in the lowest levels, but man have they compiled a fascinating group.

Thanks for the kind words @Brock Beauchamp. My analysis mostly comes down a a bizarre combination of microstats and broad system overviews given that I haven't seen more than YouTube clips on most of these guys (maybe now that I'm not working evenings for the first time in 17 years I might have to try to change that). Really, for a system that isn't as pitching deep as it is in hitting, there are some really interesting names on all of the lists. I really like Rodriguez and Cruz and how they managed to adjust to the promotion quickly despite being young, at least experience wise, for their levels. Both Knarr and Seminaris (who after some of the recent signings I now think starts in AA) feel like guys who at least make the majors at some point. I'm not as high on Jarvis as some (leery a bit of guys who succeed after repeating a level but then don't carry the momentum over after getting promoted. I know his ERA, but that walk to strikeout rate at AA isn't where it needs to be), but I know others really like him. There will be pressure on some of the guys at the back of the rotation, though, because there are likely to be guys in the high-A rotation who the Brewers wouldn't hesitate to give a fairly early bump if they show good results (Hernandez, Smith, Cornielle).

I wonder if Singleton had requested the release to seek another offer but the Brewers left the door open. Also, not at all surprised by Quero. Given the number of catchers they typically have in spring training, I was more shocked he didn't get the initial invite than Chourio.

I think there technically is, but is it really a rule if MLB categorically refuses to enforce it? And at that point no team is likely to unilaterally disarm.

Theoretically this might be true, but I think the stateside complex teams also fall under the system player cap, functionally limiting them to two complex league teams.

You might be right on those two (they ended up at the tail end of a tier that started at 40). With Middendorf especially I struggle to rank minor league relievers once you get past the Uribe huge upside types.

I know the stats from last season look rough, but don't count Blayberg Diaz out from showing up in Carolina (although the catcher depth chart is obviously crowded). He had a 12.7% walk rate to a 16.4% K rate, threw out 40% of base stealers and is one season removed from posting a .770 OPS as an 18-year-old in Arizona. Was the quality of contact that much worse (his line drive rate did tank) or was there a substantial amount of bad luck involved? Regardless, there are at least a couple of signs that warrant optimism.

Notes: 1. It speaks to the depth of the system that I had to shoe-horn one of my picks for an out-of-nowhere breakout for next season in at No. 50. 2. That being said, if there is another Jadher Areinamo in last year's DSL hitting contingent (low profile signing, strong early stateside results), I'd bet on Baez 3. I am very leery of strikeouts at the lower levels, hence the lower placement of Avina and a few others 4. Valerio is very much the type of hitter I usually rank more highly than others, and I have little doubt the bat will bounce back. The fact that he is one spot below apparently the steadiest fielder of the complex-league contingent should provide a hint to the concerns that led me to drop him. 5. I'm the guy who had Antoine Kelly first on his list at one point last season. I'll probably always have Misiorowski a couple of spots higher than he should be as long as he keeps showing flashes. Here is the list: 1. Jackson Chourio 2. Jeferson Quero 3. Sal Frelick 4. Joey Wiemer 5. Jacob Misiorowski 6. Brice Turang 7. Robert Gasser 8. Garrett Mitchell 9. Tyler Black 10. Eric Brown Jr. 11. Carlos Rodriguez (P) 12. Hendry Mendez 13. Stiven Cruz 14. Jadher Areinamo 15. Luis Lara 16. Abner Uribe 17. Robert Moore 18. Janson Junk 19. Joseph Hernandez 20. Alexander Cornielle 21. Daniel Guilarte 22. Logan Henderson 23. Ethan Small 24. Cam Robinson 25. Cam Devanney 26. Jace Avina 27. Eduardo Garcia 28. Freddy Zamora 29. Hedbert Perez 30. Zavier Warren 31. Blake Perkins 32. Luke Adams 33. Yophery Rodriguez 34. Russell Smith 35. Matthew Wood 36. Gus Varland 37. Kevin Ereu 38. Gregory Barrios 39. Felix Valerio 40. Patricio Aquino 41. Adam Seminaris 42. Carlos Rodriguez (OF) 43. Luis Castillo 44. Victor Castaneda 45. Filippo Di Turi 46. Brandon Knarr 47. Dylan O'Rae 48. Joe Gray 49. Justin Yeager 50. Juan Baez 51. Cameron Wagoner 52. Ryan Middendorf 53. Justin Jarvis 54. Tyson Miller 55. Jhonny Severino 56. Will Rudy 57. Tristen Lutz 58. Tayden Hall 59. Tyler Woessner 60. Daniel Corniel 61. Edwin Jimenez 62. Damien Miller 63. Eduarqui Fernandez 64. Johan Barrios 65. Noah Campbell 66. Yujanyer Herrera 67. Ernesto Martinez 68. Jeison Pena 69. Alexander Vallecillo 70. Lucas Erceg 71. Brailin Rodriguez 72. Clayton Andrews 73. Aidan Maldonado 74. Ben Metzinger 75. Wes Clarke

Unfortunate, but not terribly surprising. The biggest current impact might be on the glut of infielders in the lowers levels.

I think the big thing Quero is getting knocked for in many places is his shrinking walk rate, particularly with the Rattlers. If he can somehow get that back close to double digits without the K rate spiking, he should shoot up prospect lists fairly quickly.

More so than Brinson, he was the guy I was afraid the Brewers would regret giving up in the Yelich trade. It seems like the hit tool just has never progressed enough.

I think you might be looking in the wrong direction. The rest of league already hates that the Packers’ structure mandates a level of financial openness that they would rather avoid. Do you really think the Packers aren’t under considerable pressure to operate in a similar manner to the other teams to avoid making the owners look bad?

Not old enough yet. In all seriousness, though, I don’t know that anyone would contest that Cueto is the bigger name. Does that mean he will be the better pitcher next season? Not really. The truth is, everyone at this level of free agency has warts, including both the guys the Brewers signed and the guys on your list. If they didn’t, they would be on the list of guys getting 6/$180 million or something like that. The question becomes who do you think will best be able to overcome the warts or whose do you think you will best be able to hide. Miley and Anderson wouldn’t have necessarily been my first choices, but I can understand the rationale for both. But if the Brewers choices fail, and yours are better, it will be a failure of pro scouting, possibly recruitment (if they had similar offers turned down) or, given who they signed, potentially injury risk assessment. It has nothing to do with organizational philosophy.

Outside of Manaea, who is steady but unspectacular and fairly low-risk, and Drury, who I'm guessing is pretty polarizing among front offices, most of these guys represent variations on the same theme that the Brewers signed. Wacha and Cueto are veterans who suffered through injuries and mid-career struggles before putting together solid performances recently, just like Miley. Candelario and Cruz are bounceback candidates just like Anderson. Could you make the case that the guys you picked would be better options? Sure you could. But it is a difference of preference not of strategy.

I might be high board on him on this board, but this feels about right for Quero. That is, however, predicated on my untested theory that he is advanced enough in the other areas where he might not experience the typical hitting stagnation other catching prospects do as they work to catch up on the defensive side.